Unpopular Port Adelaide opinion you may have

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yes, but in your world success is obviously instantaneous and linear. Mindset, fitness, adherence to gameplan are all things that take time.

In 2012 we couldn't hit the side of a barn and lost to an inaugural franchise in GWS. Your summation is that we haven't improved enough in 3 years to challenge for a flag when it's abundantly clear to anyone who doesn't have an agenda to play a certain way that this squad still has a lot of improvement left in it. We have to make 3 changes to the list anyway and certain players who would be in the best 22 right now are injured (Trengove, Carlile, Wines, Polec), out of form (Lobbe) and others wouldn't have even got a spot at the start of the year (Ah Chee, S. Gray). That's your five to six changes right there.

Comparing our squad to the 2001-2003 model that was considered on the precipice and one of the best teams in the competition is folly. Those teams were dominating the regular season and just couldn't get over the line. They had reached their peak, which is why major list changes had to happen to keep things fresh.

And as for the gameplan...lets just see next year, shall we? If it fails again then you'll be right.

Where did I talk about instantaneous success? For several years now I have talked about us peaking between 2014-2018. Do you remember the Making the Top 4 and building to a flag thread I started in 2008 and keep adding to it? In there I have talked about bringing thru our 2006-2008 draftees as a group and them forming the base for our next premiership tilt. 2014-18 is when those guys hit their peak years. Thats when the side will hit peak - sometime during that period, but that doesnt guarantee we will get the success we want just that the best chance is during those years.

My posts since and including the initial comment is about the next flag not next year. I will bet you a slab of beer that at the end of 2017, there will be at least 5 different players in our best 22 compared to our best 22 you write down in 2 weeks time, where ever we finished in 2017 from 1st to 18th, because as you say, progression isnt linear. See at this stage I dont think we will win the flag in 2016 - that isnt instantaneous. I think 5 out of 22 = 22.72% meets the dictionary definition of a decent level of personnel changes and is less than significant but more than minimal.

You have to benchmark against something and bench marking a squad that you want to win a flag against one which did just seems common sense to me. What else do you bench mark it against?? Are you trying to tell me we are at 1996 levels? Or because we went backwards this year we are at 2000 levels for a comparison? I think we are further along the path than that.

Between 2003 and 2004 4 changes occurred to our best 22 and 6 to our list - 2 kids -Morgan and Koulouritis and in betweener in Gurrea and 3 100+ gamers in Stevens, Che and Paxman. That's a decent level not a significant or mininmial level of changes.

Go back and look at 2001, 2002 and 2003 list and best team changes and you will see similar levels.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I don't follow.

2003QF = minus Primus, Francou and James.

Should have said it was the best 21 we were able to pick. Francou was injured all year, Primus most of the year and James was out the last month before the finals.

 

[Relativity]

I'd be dangling Sammy Gray out on the trade table to gauge his worth. Small for tall trades only though.

 

[charcolechaddy]

We need cheerleaders, 100's and 1000 of them!

 

[jaxx]

New way to show that the draw really did make a huge difference this year...

PA wins against the top 8: 5
Haw wins against the top 8: 6
WB wins against the top 8: 5
Adel wins against the top 8: 3
Rich wins against the top 8: 3
NM wins against the top 8: 3

PA losses to the bottom 10: 3
Haw losses to the bottom 10: 3
WB losses to the bottom 10: 4
Adel losses to the bottom 10: 2
Rich losses to the bottom 10: 2
NM losses to the bottom 10: 3

Our record vs the top and bottom half is comparable or better to the teams who made the 8, it's just the sheer weight of games v the top 8 that did us in.

 

[Andre]

We need cheerleaders, 100's and 1000 of them!

Just a couple of dozen. Quality > Quantity

 

[Andre]

New way to show that the draw really did make a huge difference this year...

PA wins against the top 8: 5
Haw wins against the top 8: 6
WB wins against the top 8: 5
Adel wins against the top 8: 3
Rich wins against the top 8: 3
NM wins against the top 8: 3

PA losses to the bottom 10: 3
Haw losses to the bottom 10: 3
WB losses to the bottom 10: 4
Adel losses to the bottom 10: 2
Rich losses to the bottom 10: 2
NM losses to the bottom 10: 3

Our record vs the top and bottom half is comparable or better to the teams who made the 8, it's just the sheer weight of games v the top 8 that did us in.

I'm not going to do it via my phone, but % games won versus top 8, given different number of games would be interesting.

 

[charcolechaddy]

Just a couple of dozen. Quality > Quantity

bullshit we can find 500 , I don't care if they cant dance!

 

[Andre]

bullshit we can find 500 , I don't care if they cant dance!

Adults or underaged 'let's go for that creepy feel Funk Squad' vibe again?

 

[TeeKray]

The fact is that the 5 teams we play twice are all in the top 7 in an 18 team competition. The odds of that in a random draw are outrageous. I don't think we need to analyse the stats any further than that really. Literally the difference between playing finals and not playing finals.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The fact is that the 5 teams we play twice are all in the top 7 in an 18 team competition. The odds of that in a random draw are outrageous. I don't think we need to analyse the stats any further than that really. Literally the difference between playing finals and not playing finals.

No one tipped the Western Bulldogs to improve that much and the WCE to knock us out of top 4. But the timing of games in the first half of the year was rigged. Hawks got a similar draw in 2013 but were a better squad to handle it and there was less travel involved for them.

 

[TeeKray]

No one tipped the Western Bulldogs to improve that much and the WCE to knock us out of top 4. But the timing of games in the first half of the year was rigged. Hawks got a similar draw in 2013 but were a better squad to handle it and there was less travel involved for them.

The whole thing was a disaster from start to finish.

Even the home/away structure of the draw was stuffed. Play Richmond and West Coast at home but play Carlton and Brisbane away. Swap those around and we still lose to Richmond and West Coast away but we instead get two big confidence boosting wins against Carlton and Brisbane at home. Yes we weren't good enough but yes if there has been a more difficult draw in AFL history I'd love to hear about it.

 

[Janus]

Here's a outrageously unpopular opinion - in the modern game, thanks to the practice of having forwards that pressure all the way up the ground, it's far better to play just one solitary key position player playing as a sweeper surrounded by adaptable, flexible and athletic swing men who have the ability to slide from the strong side of the ground to the weak side very rapidly because there is more strength in defending as a unit than there is in setting up one-on-one contests.

Case in point - the past three weeks are the best our defence has looked all year. Coincidence or evidence?

 

[El_Scorcho]

This is the issue with the 3 groups of 6 setup we have at the moment, and I agree with TeeKray that it 100% cost us a finals berth. We went in with a harder draw, and then when Adelaide and the Bulldogs improved, our draw went from hard to probably the hardest draw ever. We definitely had the hardest first 5 weeks in the history of the competition, and that was obvious going in. What was less obvious is that the team we played in week 6 ended up finishing 2nd.

Nobody in the top 8 has played more than 10 games against the rest of the top 8. We'll have played 13 after next week.

You'd hope we get a bit of an easier run next year. We should only get 1 of the top 6 twice.

 

[bomberclifford]

Adults or underaged 'let's go for that creepy feel Funk Squad' vibe again?

Wouldn't the Funk Squad be of age now?

Perhaps get them all back for a reunion.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Here's a outrageously unpopular opinion - in the modern game, thanks to the practice of having forwards that pressure all the way up the ground, it's far better to play just one solitary key position player playing as a sweeper surrounded by adaptable, flexible and athletic swing men who have the ability to slide from the strong side of the ground to the weak side very rapidly because there is more strength in defending as a unit than there is in setting up one-on-one contests.

Case in point - the past three weeks are the best our defence has looked all year. Coincidence or evidence?

It's strange. We lost Carlile and Trengove last year and it really, really hurt us, but we didn't have any flexibility up forward either.

This year we've had the extra tall up forward and had the ability to swing people back, but I totally agree that we've been absolutely fine without Trengove and Carlile. We've ended up with matchups like Pittard on a key forward several times, but we've overall been really solid in spite of that.

Interesting how it's worked.

 

[Andre]

You'd hope we get a bit of an easier run next year. We should only get 1 of the top 6 twice.

We get 1 or 2 versus top 6, 2 or 3 versus middle 6, 1 or 2 versus bottom 6. If there was a betting pool on what combination you could make easy money on it being 2/2/1. And if Adelaide finish 7 or 8th, they'll somehow get 1/2/2 despite finishing higher. It's why I want them to finish 6th, so we only get the one inevitable top 6 double up against a side we weren't going to play regardless. This year put to bed any doubt Gil hates us and loves Adelaide.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We played Trengove against GWS. He was an important match up against a couple of their 200cm+ giants on a dry day.

 

[charcolechaddy]

Adults or underaged 'let's go for that creepy feel Funk Squad' vibe again?

and what about a over 60 team, the grooving granny's !

that would be something our neighbours would surly be considering for next years pre game.

 

[Janus]

We played Trengove against GWS. He was an important match up against a couple of their 200cm+ giants on a dry day.

Of course there are exceptions, such as when you are playing against gorilla forwards that force your defence to be sucked toward them if you don't play the right matchup. That's why I'd still have guys like Trengove or Carlile in the squad. But against athletic forwards that could go into the midfield if required - like Stringer or Roughead - there is more tangible benefit doing the old Roman testudo formation than there is relying on players who are one out against a forward and their own defensive prowess.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Of course there are exceptions, such as when you are playing against gorilla forwards that force your defence to be sucked toward them if you don't play the right matchup. That's why I'd still have guys like Trengove or Carlile in the squad. But against athletic forwards that could go into the midfield if required - like Stringer or Roughead - there is more tangible benefit doing the old Roman testudo formation than there is relying on players who are one out against a forward and their own defensive prowess.

Its horses for courses. Over 22 weeks there are a lot of variables over that time. Dixon Day and Lynch probably would have produced a lot different result against Hombsch Oshea and Jonas in the dry as we were giving away a lot of height. But it worked bloody well for us in the wet when a clean big grab wasnt going to happen to often and these more smaller flexible defenders were able to sweep the ball away once it hit the ground.

Our selection panel has rewarded guys for past efforts rather than concentrating on horses for courses selection decisions a few times too often this year and its cost us.

 

[Andre]

Since the Bulldogs game our midfield has also not being spanked as it has much of this year. The best defense is the defense not having to do anything. Or if not that then not having to defend the opposition midfielders getting away pinpoint passes as our clearance work stunk.

 

[powerpowerpower]

Robbie Gray set shots are bad. I have no confidence when he lines up.

 

[John Hart Jnr]

Robbie Gray set shots are bad. I have no confidence when he lines up.

I always say "I hope he runs out wide and snaps it"

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Robbie Gray set shots are bad. I have no confidence when he lines up.

Or his *en right foot checkie snaps right in front when an absolute champion would have used his left foot and nailed it.