Victoria Election - 29 November 2014

[Jascave]

Would it be fair to say the Coalition needs what I would call a major miracle to win the State Election?

One piece of advice to the Victorian Liberals/Nationals would be not to ask Tony Abbott & Co to tag along on the hustings during the election campaign, especially for the election launch.

 

[Maggie5]

Would it be fair to say the Coalition needs what I would call a major miracle to win the State Election?

One piece of advice to the Victorian Liberals/Nationals would be not to ask Tony Abbott & Co to tag along on the hustings during the election campaign, especially for the election launch.

Spoil sport - I was looking forward to it.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

How do you see the Victorian Election panning out at this point in time?

Would Labor coast in to an easy victory, or will the Coalition pull a rabbit out of the hat and stay in power for another 4 years?

Labor look as though they'll win comfortably, if they can hold off shooting themselves in the foot. From what I'm hearing, the Coalition have done nothing since coming to power, so making big, popular, electoral commitments this time around isn't going to have the desired effect.

Family First are supposedly itching to direct preferences to Labor this time around as well which will make it a touch more difficult for them to retain office:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...pthine-on-notice/story-e6frgczx-1226924526341

Based on the article DivideandMultiply referenced, they're isn't going to be a change of heart.


A very rough guess would be Labor to pick up around 8 seats.

 

[Jascave]

If I was pick a election result at this stage, I'd say Labor would win by 8-10 seats.

Expect to see on Election Night several long standing Coalition seats changing hands.

In fact, what are the odds on Premier Denis Napthine and his predecessor Ted Bailleau losing their seats on the same night?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

If I was pick a election result at this stage, I'd say Labor would win by 8-10 seats.

Expect to see on Election Night several long standing Coalition seats changing hands.

In fact, what are the odds on Premier Denis Napthine and his predecessor Ted Bailleau losing their seats on the same night?

Zilch. The day the Liberal's lose Bailleau's seat of Hawthorn is the day the Liberal Party dies. Highly doubt Napthine is going to be defeated either.

There's always a couple of surprises on election night though - but neither of those two will be it.

 

[swingdog]

Sportsbet might want to revise those odds:

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/l...-to-41-in-agenielsen-poll-20140625-zslo3.html

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Sportsbet might want to revise those odds:

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/l...-to-41-in-agenielsen-poll-20140625-zslo3.html

Wow! And yep, Labor down to $1.40

Newspoll also came in with a more modest 54-46, however its popularity figures were more harsh for Napthine & Andrews.

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/06/25/1226966/978333-140626vicnewspoll.pdf

 

[mottrain]

Could come out with another 99.

 

[Jascave]

Can you recall any political party coming from that far behind (ie Fairfax Victorian Election poll-Labor 59%, Coalition 41%) to win a State/Federal Election?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Can you recall any political party coming from that far behind (ie Fairfax Victorian Election poll-Labor 59%, Coalition 41%) to win a State/Federal Election?

Most prominent, recent example I can see is Federal Labor leading 60-40 in June 2001, then losing the election November later that year.

I think 9/11 was the main cause of that turnaround.

http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/2pp-voting-intention-trend-1901-2014

 

[Slax]

I've seen some internal polling at this is going to be a blood bath. State elections are known for having much larger swings than federal elections, especially in regional seats, I expect to see a few seats that many would not of even thought were on the cards for the Coalition to lose to go to a combination of the ALP and independents.

I've been saying for 2 years now this will be an absolute smashing and for a long time the Liberal supporters here laughed at one stage even quoting odds to me. Well it's now just over 4 months away and if you can get $1.40 it's money for jam. There isn't just a smell of incompetence about this government there is a stench of corruption too. Would love to see a proper anti-corruption watch dog in Victoria because it would run a number of the liberal Party stalwarts out of politicis which is what the party desperately needs if it doesn't want to spend the next decade in the opposition benches again.

 

[Elroo]

It seems their proposed so called East/West link fails on economic grounds as well;

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/economic-case-for-east-west-link-may-be-shaky-20140707-zszbe.html

Economic case for East West link may be shaky
Date
July 8, 2014 - 10:12AM

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Josh Gordon, Clay Lucas

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State Treasurer Michael O'Brien. Photo: Wayne Taylor

The economic case for the East West Link could be shakier than first thought, with the government’s own modelling work suggesting the benefits could be overshadowed by towering costs.

It comes as Melbourne City Council on Tuesday night considers voting to strengthen its objection to the East West Link’s impact on the Moonee Ponds Creek and parts of Kensington.

 

[Pessimistic]

May be shaky ? Worse than first thought ?

Even a graduat traffic engineed can see most of the conjestion is not headed for the tulla freeway , and hoddle st will feel no benefit in fact it will probably fill up quicker

It has huge political plusses for the coalition, and thats the reason its had so much wasted on it so far

 

[Ice-Wolf]

It seems their proposed so called East/West link fails on economic grounds as well;

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/economic-case-for-east-west-link-may-be-shaky-20140707-zszbe.html

Economic case for East West link may be shaky

The economic case for the East West Link could be shakier than first thought, with the government’s own modelling work suggesting the benefits could be overshadowed by towering costs.

It comes as Melbourne City Council on Tuesday night considers voting to strengthen its objection to the East West Link’s impact on the Moonee Ponds Creek and parts of Kensington.

Wow if it's shakier than first thought and first thought was that it had a horrible return on investment, it must be disastrously bad.

 

[swingdog]

I worked at the Department of Transport - East-West has never stacked up.

 

[Maggie5]

If it goes through before election, we will be paying for it into the next century.

 

[mottrain]

If it goes through before election, we will be paying for it into the next century.

Won't be different to the desalination or MYKi.

 

[Pessimistic]

Won't be different to the desalination or MYKi.

I guess that makes it right then ? Are you forecasting the actual project will be a shambles ?

 

[mottrain]

I guess that makes it right then ? Are you forecasting the actual project will be a shambles ?

I guess what it would mean is it is hypocritical of Labor to complain about the project planned.

 

[Pessimistic]

I guess what it would mean is it is hypocritical of Labor to complain about the project planned.

Infrastucture australia is supposedly neutral. They are cool on the project. The way victoria is growing we really cant afford tit for tat political crap in the infrastructure place

Well done for being part of that

Id add that some of the biggest bailleu-napthine critics have been on their own side

 

[swingdog]

I guess what it would mean is it is hypocritical of Labor to complain about the project planned.

There are a few differences between those projects.

The desalt plant could be argued either way - I don't like the way the policy frame ended up with that solution but it is likely to be a good long term bet as rainfall declines and the dams become less reliable.

The idea of having a smart card for public transport was correct. The requirements the government set and their contracting choice were ridiculous, which is why we ended up with an over-budget myki. However, again, you'd say it was a good idea having it.

East-West has never been a good idea, according to traffic projections and current behaviours, it never will be a good idea and we'll be paying for it for a long time.

In terms of the politics, I can't see why Labor wouldn't say, we'll have a look at all the contracts if and when we get into government. They can make a strong case that the government's figures are dodgy and taking such a stance would show restraint and responsibility.

 

[mottrain]

There are a few differences between those projects.

The desalt plant could be argued either way - I don't like the way the policy frame ended up with that solution but it is likely to be a good long term bet as rainfall declines and the dams become less reliable.

The idea of having a smart card for public transport was correct. The requirements the government set and their contracting choice were ridiculous, which is why we ended up with an over-budget myki. However, again, you'd say it was a good idea having it.

East-West has never been a good idea, according to traffic projections and current behaviours, it never will be a good idea and we'll be paying for it for a long time.

In terms of the politics, I can't see why Labor wouldn't say, we'll have a look at all the contracts if and when we get into government. They can make a strong case that the government's figures are dodgy and taking such a stance would show restraint and responsibility.

Myki nor the desal plant were never good ideas for starters for the same reasons you use to criticise east west link.

 

[Pessimistic]

Myki nor the desal plant were never good ideas for starters for the same reasons you use to criticise east west link.

Actually those things had problems in hindsight, at the time there was. A fair consensus. There was negligable rainfall and dams need rain. We have a huge amount of dams anyway.

 

[swingdog]

Myki nor the desal plant were never good ideas for starters for the same reasons you use to criticise east west link.

Details?

 

[mottrain]

Desal plant was rushed. Myki massively was bungled when we were offered two terrific proven systems for a legitimate lower cost but blatantly ignored them because bRACKS and company wanted to be new ground breakers.