Victoria Election - 29 November 2014

[Maggie5]

He's told them to **** off but the keep hanging around like a bad smell. They're deploying Julie Bishop this week.

That will help

 

[Slax]

He's told them to **** off but the keep hanging around like a bad smell. They're deploying Julie Bishop this week.

Told Abbott he didn't want him to set foot in Victoria in the months leading up to the election as well.

Labor haven't been rolling out their's either that much. Adam Brandt though has been regularly spotted in his federal electorate in recent weeks and will no doubt be around all week. Greens really like there chances now Libs aren't preferencing anyone in the seats to take at least two from Labor (Melbourne & Northcote)

 

[Maggie5]

The only real interest in this election is how big the swing will be and the final make-up of both houses.

 

[Slax]

Have friends that work in TAFE and they have had a tough time of it with the cuts. But on the other hand, government funding to Private Providers is quite steady and many increasing their scope of delivery.

What a surprise, fund private providers who are interested in making a profit compared to the TAFE system which is about providing education.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Interesting day. I've been speaking to a couple of old uni mates who are Greens and Labor campaigners respectively. Both of them until now have thought it was a foregone conclusion that the ALP would get in.

The Greens guy is just a volunteer so I imagine he wouldn't know a lot about what's going on but he said the whole campaign has seemed more confident in recent days. Also said they've been concentrating calls and door-knocks more on the Labor-held seats rather than Prahran. They thought the Labor-held seats would be too difficult to get with a general swing to the ALP which is why they spent a lot of time and money on Prahran in the first place. It seems the race has tightened so now they think Labor won't get a big general swing so seats like Northcote, Brunswick and Melbourne are big chances to fall.

The Labor guy is a bit more senior and he said there's been a noticeable shift in the polling they've been doing in the last week. They're really worried about the sand-belt as a whole not swinging and that there might be some Liberal marginals hold on with their first term members getting the sophomore surge.

Just now Morgan's put out an SMS poll showing a 4% swing to the coalition. I still think Labor should get in but it sounds like the coalition are closing the gap. Of course it could just be noise in the poll and the Labor guy putting out the usual BS about it being closer than the polls are showing.

 

[Gough]

Interesting day. I've been speaking to a couple of old uni mates who are Greens and Labor campaigners respectively. Both of them until now have thought it was a foregone conclusion that the ALP would get in.

The Greens guy is just a volunteer so I imagine he wouldn't know a lot about what's going on but he said the whole campaign has seemed more confident in recent days. Also said they've been concentrating calls and door-knocks more on the Labor-held seats rather than Prahran. They thought the Labor-held seats would be too difficult to get with a general swing to the ALP which is why they spent a lot of time and money on Prahran in the first place. It seems the race has tightened so now they think Labor won't get a big general swing so seats like Northcote, Brunswick and Melbourne are big chances to fall.

The Labor guy is a bit more senior and he said there's been a noticeable shift in the polling they've been doing in the last week. They're really worried about the sand-belt as a whole not swinging and that there might be some Liberal marginals hold on with their first term members getting the sophomore surge.

Just now Morgan's put out an SMS poll showing a 4% swing to the coalition. I still think Labor should get in but it sounds like the coalition are closing the gap. Of course it could just be noise in the poll and the Labor guy putting out the usual BS about it being closer than the polls are showing.

How do you feel federal issues will play out in this election? It's all very well for the state party to be gathering a bit of momentum when in Canberra, they're hitting new lows of unpopularity?

 

[Footy Smarts]

How do you feel federal issues will play out in this election? It's all very well for the state party to be gathering a bit of momentum when in Canberra, they're hitting new lows of unpopularity?

I've never really been a big one for federal issues affecting state voting. I think the people who are switched on enough to really know what issues are on the federal agenda are also switched on enough to know that they've normally got nothing to do with state politics. It only really has an impact when an entire party becomes toxic like Labor a couple of years ago. The coalition aren't anywhere near as widely hated at all levels of government as that. Also the fact that they seem to be getting some traction at this time suggests federal issues aren't coming into play during the campaign too much.

Labor still will probably win but I was surprised how things seem to have shifted according to a couple of people involved.

 

[MaddAdam]

Told Abbott he didn't want him to set foot in Victoria in the months leading up to the election as well.

Labor haven't been rolling out their's either that much. Adam Brandt though has been regularly spotted in his federal electorate in recent weeks and will no doubt be around all week. Greens really like there chances now Libs aren't preferencing anyone in the seats to take at least two from Labor (Melbourne & Northcote)

They won't win Melbourne or Northcote, maybe Richmond. Maybe.

 

[Inferno]

The Labor guy is a bit more senior and he said there's been a noticeable shift in the polling they've been doing in the last week. They're really worried about the sand-belt as a whole not swinging and that there might be some Liberal marginals hold on with their first term members getting the sophomore surge.

Just now Morgan's put out an SMS poll showing a 4% swing to the coalition. I still think Labor should get in but it sounds like the coalition are closing the gap. Of course it could just be noise in the poll and the Labor guy putting out the usual BS about it being closer than the polls are showing.

Morgan still has the Coalition below 40%. They only just got across the line with 45% last time around.

It also has Labor at an absurdly low 33.5% (everyone else has them in the high 30's) and the Greens at an absurdly high 17.5% (coming off their last, even more absurd high of 19.5%).

The 52-48 TPP is still well within range of the 53-47 that most pollsters have.

 

[Inferno]

They won't win Melbourne or Northcote, maybe Richmond. Maybe.

Melbourne I'd say they would be 50-50 or even favourates. It lost Flemington which was the ALP leaning area of the seat, plus Bandt is popular enough now for some spillover into the state seat.

Richmond and Brunswick they're a realistic chance but Labor would be favourates in both.

Northcote they have a big, big margin to make up to win. Doable but unlikely.

On another note - the times I've been through Eltham the last couple of weeks I've noticed the Libs pushing very, very hard. It's the most marginal Labor held seat so they're not without a chance.

 

[MaddAdam]

Melbourne I'd say they would be 50-50 or even favourates. It lost Flemington which was the ALP leaning area of the seat, plus Bandt is popular enough now for some spillover into the state seat.

Richmond and Brunswick they're a realistic chance but Labor would be favourates in both.

Northcote they have a big, big margin to make up to win. Doable but unlikely.

On another note - the times I've been through Eltham the last couple of weeks I've noticed the Libs pushing very, very hard. It's the most marginal Labor held seat so they're not without a chance.

Candidate is s**t. I'd normally vote Green but will vote Kanis on grounds ALP govt better for my footy club and Sandell is a prissy little careerist flog.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Morgan still has the Coalition below 40%. They only just got across the line with 45% last time around.

It also has Labor at an absurdly low 33.5% (everyone else has them in the high 30's) and the Greens at an absurdly high 17.5% (coming off their last, even more absurd high of 19.5%).

The 52-48 TPP is still well within range of the 53-47 that most pollsters have.

Morgan's polling gives such weird first preferences I wouldn't worry about it too much. But a 4% swing to the coalition is interesting no matter what warped method they used.

 

[Bobman]

The other thing is that it doesn't really matter what Labor did or did not do, they aren't the ones being judged on their performance in government, if they win they will be judged on what they have done.

That was my point.

Dandenong Bypass & Eastlink ended up being a private deal, so can't pat too many Labor backs for getting it started.

The other projects you mentioned were over budget (like just about every project under ALP). Most of Melbourne hated Southern Cross including the naming of it.

Liberal railway crossing removals (1st term):

Springvale Road, Springvale level crossing - removed
Mitcham Road railway crossing - removed
Rooks Road railway crossing - removed
Contracts about to be awarded for many others - done

Labor only removed 8 in 11 years but now plan to remove 50 in 8 years? I think only 1 in their first term? Come on now

I can't see the point of bagging Libs when they at least get things done without taking multiple terms to get it done.

 

[Slax]

They won't win Melbourne or Northcote, maybe Richmond. Maybe.

Richard Wynne is a reasonably popular local member and this will count for an extra 2-3% and get him over the line.

Like Inferno reckon they have to start favourites in Melbourne following the redistribution and that the Libs last election preferenced them last, this time they are doing any preferences in Melbourne which will help the Greens, similar story in Northcote.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

With no more polls this morning, its prediction time. I may edit this if there is an unexpected shift in polling:

Seats Gained
ALP: Wendouree, Yan Yean*, Carrum, Frankston, Monbulk*, Bellarine*
L/NP:
GRN: Melbourne
IND:

Seats Lost
ALP: Melbourne
L/NP: Wendouree, Yan Yean*, Carrum, Monbulk*, Bellarine*
GRN:
IND: Frankston

*notional

TPP
ALP: 52.5
L/NP: 47.5

Final Seat Count
ALP: 45 (+5)
L/NP: 42 (-5)
GRN: 1 (+1)
IND: 0 (-1)

I'm not game enough to try and pick the Legislative Council.

 

[Slax]

On another note - the times I've been through Eltham the last couple of weeks I've noticed the Libs pushing very, very hard. It's the most marginal Labor held seat so they're not without a chance.

Is actually my seat. Whilst Briffa (Liberal candidate) has been highly visible in the seat for at least the last 3 months, when asked questions on more contenious government policy he really stumbles. PT gets no assistance here and the fact that there is still a single track cross at Heidelberg and single track from Greensborough to Eltham isn't popular as it means peak hour services at 20 minutes apart to Eltham (same as rest of the day & weekends), with bus services to many parts also very poor. CFA cuts are also extremely unpopular, a lot of people still remember black Saturday here and know that if the wind change had arrived 1 hour later then strong chance it would've gone through the back of the electorate and got into Reasearch & Warrandyte (not in electorate but neighbours), they have a strong presence and have been campaigning against Libs this election.

Expect the Greens to poll higher than 2010 (13.6%). The one section of road that is really needed to link up Melbourne in the Northern Ring Rd link to Eastern Fwy/Eastlink would run through a large portion of this electorate, which is why neither party are proposing it as would cost them the seat. Expect rebound to Labor following 5.4% to Libs last election, but smaller swing than rest of state. This seat is likely to always remain under 5% margin which makes both parties cautious about making decisions that won't be liked locally.

 

[Slax]

Seats Gained
ALP: Wendouree, Yan Yean*, Carrum, Frankston, Monbulk*, Bellarine*, Mordialloc, South Barwon, Bentleigh
L/NP:
GRN: Melbourne, Northcote
IND: Morwell

Seats Lost
ALP: Melbourne, Northcote
L/NP: Wendouree, Yan Yean*, Carrum, Monbulk*, Bellarine*, Mordialloc, South Barwon, Bentleigh, Morwell
GRN:
IND: Frankston

*notional

TPP
ALP: 52.5
L/NP: 47.5

Final Seat Count
ALP: 47 (+7)
L/NP: 38 (-9)
GRN: 2 (+2)
IND: 1 (0)


Legislative Council*
ALP: 18 (+2)
L/NP: 18 (-3)
GRN: 4 (+1)

*This I am far less certain about than Legislative Assembly due to preference deals between micro parties and the Greens-PUP deal, which could make for some a drawn out result.

 

[kolchak]

Richard Wynne is a reasonably popular local member and this will count for an extra 2-3% and get him over the line.

Like Inferno reckon they have to start favourites in Melbourne following the redistribution and that the Libs last election preferenced them last, this time they are doing any preferences in Melbourne which will help the Greens, similar story in Northcote.

Had a chat to him and Steve Jolly at an early polling booth last Saturday. Told me everything I wanted to hear, and seemed like a pretty straight forward sort of bloke, could see him doing pretty well. I'd definately prefer him over the greens.

 

[Todman]

Worst case senario for Liberals.

ALP 42 Greens 4 L&NP 42 having a Labor-Green coalation government

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Worst case senario for Liberals.

ALP 42 Greens 4 L&NP 42 having a Labor-Green coalation government

Nah worst case scenario for the Liberals is ALP 52 Greens 10 Liberals 10 Nationals 16 or something like that, anything with a Green or National resurgence is the worst thing for them.

A Labor/Greens Minority government would be their best case scenario other than winning outright themselves.

In a 42-4-42 you also have the option of the Nats telling the Liberals to go * themselves and forming government with Labor.

 

[Todman]

The last time Alp and the Nats formed a coalition, Bolte was able to defeat them both and ruled unchallenged for 17 years.

 

[Inferno]

The last time Alp and the Nats formed a coalition, Bolte was able to defeat them both and ruled unchallenged for 17 years.

The time before that it rendered the UAP/Liberals redundant and borderline useless for 20 years, which would have been longer had the ALP not split.

Ryan is too much of a ideological hack though to even flirt with the idea of siding with Labor even if it was to get maximum leverage over the Libs without following through.

 

[Inferno]

Is actually my seat. Whilst Briffa (Liberal candidate) has been highly visible in the seat for at least the last 3 months, when asked questions on more contenious government policy he really stumbles. PT gets no assistance here and the fact that there is still a single track cross at Heidelberg and single track from Greensborough to Eltham isn't popular as it means peak hour services at 20 minutes apart to Eltham (same as rest of the day & weekends), with bus services to many parts also very poor. CFA cuts are also extremely unpopular, a lot of people still remember black Saturday here and know that if the wind change had arrived 1 hour later then strong chance it would've gone through the back of the electorate and got into Reasearch & Warrandyte (not in electorate but neighbours), they have a strong presence and have been campaigning against Libs this election.

Expect the Greens to poll higher than 2010 (13.6%). The one section of road that is really needed to link up Melbourne in the Northern Ring Rd link to Eastern Fwy/Eastlink would run through a large portion of this electorate, which is why neither party are proposing it as would cost them the seat. Expect rebound to Labor following 5.4% to Libs last election, but smaller swing than rest of state. This seat is likely to always remain under 5% margin which makes both parties cautious about making decisions that won't be liked locally.

Ahh fair enough. He's certainly been the most prominent local candidate I've seen so far though. Is either party promising anything about the trains? Those single track parts are an absolute joke, especially the one between Heidelberg and Rosanna.

Also Research got redistributed into Eltham, and it's a Lib leaning suburb too. And the fires weren't quite that far south (thankfully because then I might have been in trouble!).

 

[Slax]

Ahh fair enough. He's certainly been the most prominent local candidate I've seen so far though. Is either party promising anything about the trains? Those single track parts are an absolute joke, especially the one between Heidelberg and Rosanna.

Also Research got redistributed into Eltham, and it's a Lib leaning suburb too. And the fires weren't quite that far south (thankfully because then I might have been in trouble!).

Following redistribution Eltham has a margain of 0.1% to Labor, down from actual 2010 result of 0.82%

 

[Inferno]

Following redistribution Eltham has a margain of 0.1% to Labor, down from actual 2010 result of 0.82%

I'm just saying Research is in it. You gained the ALP leaning northern part of Greensborough too and also lost North Warrandyte (who the hell makes an electoral boundary that crosses the Yarra? I thought there was an unspoken rule against that).