I don't know if this is for real or Collingwood putting the AFL's feet to the fire post the equalisation tax. Sydney have told Mike Fitzpatrick where to stick it post the COLA changes by moving their games from ANZ Stadium (in which Fitzpatrick has financial interests) to the SCG in a 30 year deal. Given that move and the Cats getting plenty of money at Skilled, I wouldn't rule it out as a serious, long-term, proposal.
It cost $450 million to build Docklands stadium in 2000 so to build a smaller 50k capacity stadium today might cost $500-600 million depending on where it's built.
You wouldn't pay the whole cost yourself and in one go. Pert mentioned joint partnerships and private equity and you could add to that significant government contributions for sure. Building loans are paid as costs are accrued so you pay don't start paying interest on $500 million straight off the bat.
At Skilled the redevelopment investment there has been to date $13 million from Geelong Football Club, $26 million federal govt, $40 million from the state govt, city of Geelong $10.5 million and AFL $7.75 million. It's a marginal seat which explains some of the pork-barrelling but you're looking at $97 million of which GFC have chipped in around 13%. Collingwood might look to build in some growth corridor and get some political largesse and AFL help and as a club we have our own political capital so I'd be confident we'd get significant money from government.
The outlays are undoubtedly large but you have to look at the revenue as well. You have naming rights deals (with Etihad paying $5-8 million per year at Docklands), a lower threshold cost for opposition clubs to house games there, tenancy agreements, a social club/venue element and of course the gate revenue.
If you can knock $100 million off from government and AFL sources to start with you might end up with a $400 million loan over 30 years and be paying $20 million per year on the loan. Money for naming rights, from Spotless for catering, a competitive cost for opposition clubs to hold their home games there so they don't run at a loss (day cost plus profit split), renting of premises etc.
I suspect we could offer a much better deal to clubs like Dogs, North and Saints who are totally gouged by Etihad and turn a profit to both them and us. They could host one home game per season at the stadium and be assured of a modest return rather than a massive loss. It's all very difficult to know if this is a goer or not without the detail so look forward to hearing more in the future.
Herein lies the many problems
Mega Problem 1: There is no way anyone lends us the money to make this happen. Nobody would enter into even prelimiary contracting without the money being guaranteed, and a lot more than you are saying up front. A private equity group would be required alongside government fundng, for a lot, trouble is, there is no way the bolded revenue streams would survive that involvement. Any partner we involve capable of bringing this off will carve off the critical revenue streams and leave us the debt. Its Catch 22.
Mega Problem 2: Infrastructure projects in Australia are by world standards ridiculously expensive. Like worst in the world, Ive seen studies that place us last in the OECD by a comfortable margin. We are terrible. Partly its due to lack of competition, both in contracting and financing, partly due to accepted bad work practices and high labour costs with low productivity. This will ratchet up the cost while massively increasing the risk. Once again, any partner capable of making this happen will transfer the risk to us while retaining control of revenue streams.
Mega Problem 3:The fixturing. Controlled by the AFL. There are currently barely enough games in Melbourne to meet the contracted requirements for the MCC which the AFL relies on for its long term contract (including the grand final), and to have enough revenue to make docklands work. Docklands is ruinously expensive to run, and will soon be owned by...guess who. There simply arent enough matches available to move to a third stadium wihtout those two crying foul, and the debt is already in place for those.
Barcelona? They play a guaranteed 19 home games a season, plus home fixtures of cup ties. And a soccer stadium is cheaper and easier to build thanks to the ground dimensions and geometry. And Barca are like an order of magnitude bigger than us.