VRC Derby and all race day discussion.

[iluvparis]

Looking at the last 10 derbys, theres barely one that I remember having a fave that looked clearly superior pre race.
Efficient & maybe Whobe?

seth

Dundeel was pretty short wasn't he? (Admittedly had been rolled in his lead up).

 

[Main Man]

Think the pace holds the key to this race.

No doubt HC was flattered by the arrogance of the jockeys on First Seal and Sweynesse taking off so far out match race style.

That said, looked easily the best stayer in the race and hard to see it getting rolled if the tempo is hot again.

If it's slow early and a sprint from the 4-600 don't think he can run over them

But given he has proved he can continue running on off a brutal pace do you think they will be dumb enough to snag back off a slow pace?

He can lead this race if he really wanted to, don't think they will but if he draws well I expect him to be forward in the run.

 

[Main Man]

Dundeel was pretty short wasn't he? (Admittedly had been rolled in his lead up).

I was against both Dundeel and Whobe in the Derby, but very keen on Hampton Court.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Thats fair enough but his one performance is so far beyond what the others in this field have done that he doesn't have to replicate that performance to win.

I think Sweynesse and First Seal are very nice 3yo's and he wasn't far behind them over 1400M back in August, again close to Sweynesse in the Spring Stakes and has then one his last two, yes his Spring Champion was a big peak performance but he has built into his campaign and come from the right form line for this race.

If he does repeat his Spring Champion then he wins, if he doesn't he is still a huge winning chance, who else in this race has looked anything better than an average 3yo this campaign?

As i said above i think MOM is the value, mainly because he can ride the speed and maintain a pace. HC can do this as well but so will be interesting to see the tactics of each.

If HC goes back MOM could be hard to run down, i can't see any issue what so ever with the trip for him. He has run well in some hot form races over unsuitable trips in my eyes, has looked like a proper stayer all prep.

Agree HC is the one to beat, great form line through the spring championship and has been building up to this, everyone knows my opinion of First Seal, the winner of the 2015 Cox Plate. But i couldn't dive in on that price.

1 by 3 MOM for me at this stage.

 

[terminators]

But given he has proved he can continue running on off a brutal pace do you think they will be dumb enough to snag back off a slow pace?

He can lead this race if he really wanted to, don't think they will but if he draws well I expect him to be forward in the run.

Given he rated so highly coming from off the speed I think they'd want to employ similar tactics again. Has enough natural speed to lead but only went to another level when ridden more quietly. He needs it to be a true staying test because he doesn't have the turn of foot of a MOM but if it's run truly he just wins.

 

[Main Man]

As i said above i think MOM is the value, mainly because he can ride the speed and maintain a pace. HC can do this as well but so will be interesting to see the tactics of each.

If HC goes back MOM could be hard to run down, i can't see any issue what so ever with the trip for him. He has run well in some hot form races over unsuitable trips in my eyes, has looked like a proper stayer all prep.

Agree HC is the one to beat, great form line through the spring championship and has been building up to this, everyone knows my opinion of First Seal, the winner of the 2015 Cox Plate. But i couldn't dive in on that price.

1 by 3 MOM for me at this stage.

I give him, Magicool, Atmosphere and to a lesser extent Boedinger a winning chance I just think HC at this point in time looks the be the dominant stayer of his generation, he will need to come back to the pack whilst the others will have to improve.

I have had knocks on the short favorites in recent times, Dundeel, I wasn't convinced by him at the distance and he had looked to have trained off, Whobegotyou was a massive risk at the trip also but do not share those concerns with HC.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I give him, Magicool, Atmosphere and to a lesser extent Boedinger a winning chance I just think HC at this point in time looks the be the dominant stayer of his generation, he will need to come back to the pack whilst the others will have to improve.

I have had knocks on the short favorites in recent times, Dundeel, I wasn't convinced by him at the distance and he had looked to have trained off, Whobegotyou was a massive risk at the trip also but do not share those concerns with HC.

Trip not an issue for both of MOM and HC for me.

Where they will position HC in the run could be though. He takes a while to wind up, dont for a second believe they will go as mental up front as they did in the SC.

Thats my only knock.

 

[Duritz]

I have HC's win as 5L superior to MOM's. Agree he doesn't want a sit sprint but I'd suggest he's the only one in the field who has proven he can stay.

 

[Main Man]

I think he will be forward in the run, particularly if they don't go fast, he sat 2nd 2 starts back, they went very slow early in that before sprinting home the last 400M, he was pocketed until the 200M before getting out and running over them.

He did beat the 2nd stringers that day but it was still a good performance given how the race panned out for him.

Lacks a real turn of foot but they should be looking to build into it from the 600M with him, he looks to me to be one who will keep finding the line and can make a long sustained run.

Ride and barriers will be an important factor.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I think he will be forward in the run, particularly if they don't go fast, he sat 2nd 2 starts back, they went very slow early in that before sprinting home the last 400M, he was pocketed until the 200M before getting out and running over them.

He did beat the 2nd stringers that day but it was still a good performance given how the race panned out for him.

Lacks a real turn of foot but they should be looking to build into it from the 600M with him, he looks to me to be one who will keep finding the line and can make a long sustained run.

Ride and barriers will be an important factor.

Yeah, was on him that run 2 starts back you are talking about. Super Joe aboard, pocketed behind the leader, took a while to wind up but then let down well. That's why i said he can be put in a forward position. If he gets a similar run to that i think he wins. Barriers will be very important, you're quite right.

 

[Duritz]

Yes, put the pressure on them from the 800 and he'll break them like Ivan Drago.

 

[Jugada]

I quite like Firehouse Rock here. He seems to have plenty of improvement left in him and all of his runs this time in a have been very good and has always been set for this race. I also think the girls are better than the boys this year and the Crafty form line is very good.

I don't really like Hampton Court coming off a win that is so much better than anything he has ever produced and let's be honest whoever won that race would be spruiked out the anoos because of how fast they went and he just happened to be the one sitting back smoking the pipe. At $3 I could back him as well and hope that it wasn't a fluke but I couldn't take him one out

 

[yaco55]

Usual GW bias must be taken into account with the above post.

What a ridiculous post - It was a high rating race that was run at a genuine pace - And Hampton Court beat 2 good horses in Sweynesse and First Seal. I suggest your post reflects your anti GW bias.

 

[yaco55]

I'd rather bet against him replcating the performance at the current price.

Gai trained horse recording a ridiculous rating in a Sydney Group 1, seemingly from nowhere.....gets my alarm bells ringing.

Yes, Hampton Court increased its rating in the Spring Championship, but it was slaughtered by Moreira in the Dulcify Quality ( a much inferior race ) - It only got out at the 100m and sprouted wings - Probably should have won that race by 3 lengths - Beating Sweynesse and First Seal is good form - Runs to the same rating and Hampton Court wins - Of course there are no guarantees.

 

[iluvparis]

What a ridiculous post - It was a high rating race that was run at a genuine pace - And Hampton Court beat 2 good horses in Sweynesse and First Seal. I suggest your post reflects your anti GW bias.

Just warning posters that may not know that you have such an extreme pro Waterhouse bias that you were defending young Tommy's bookmaking business to the death when it first opened.

I might have an anti Gai bias but it is nowhere near as strong as your pro Gai bias.

 

[year of the cat]

Gai has come out and said that HC will win "easily". Very unlike Gai to be that confident with one of her own..

 

[uptheblues]

Just warning posters that may not know that you have such an extreme pro Waterhouse bias that you were defending young Tommy's bookmaking business to the death when it first opened.

I might have an anti Gai bias but it is nowhere near as strong as your pro Gai bias.

Can't believe this is actually a thing!

 

[KardiniaPark]

Just warning posters that may not know that you have such an extreme pro Waterhouse bias that you were defending young Tommy's bookmaking business to the death when it first opened.

I might have an anti Gai bias but it is nowhere near as strong as your pro Gai bias.

Post reposted for homophobia

 

[Gavin Excell]

Have Ratki C Cup alive into Bachman double. Not really confident. Bachmans price seems to be blowing each day

 

[yaco55]

Just warning posters that may not know that you have such an extreme pro Waterhouse bias that you were defending young Tommy's bookmaking business to the death when it first opened.

I might have an anti Gai bias but it is nowhere near as strong as your pro Gai bias.

Could have sworn that Tom Waterhouse and Gai Smith are different people.

I defended Tom Waterhouse's business online because he was doing nothing different to other betting agencies - They advertise,and advertise, and advertise more, until you are blue in the face. And I was mocking the silly posters who didn't attacked the person, rather than the business practices. And of course the like of Singo/Robinson/Hayson hardly covered themselves in glory.

Who is your selection in the VRC Derby ?

 

[yaco55]

Have Ratki C Cup alive into Bachman double. Not really confident. Bachmans price seems to be blowing each day

Bachman would have to improve 5 or 6 lengths to win the Derby - Seems to lack tactical speed and is a touch one-paced - Though stranger things have happened.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Have Ratki C Cup alive into Bachman double. Not really confident. Bachmans price seems to be blowing each day

Bachman scratched this morning after hurting leg

 

[KardiniaPark]

Bachman scratched this morning after hurting leg

Ouch

 

[muttley45]

Preferment to win easily as a maiden and chalk up another G1 for the struggling Chris Waller

 

[Surkin]

Preferment to win easily as a maiden and chalk up another G1 for the struggling Chris Waller

Drawn perfectly in 6.

Hampton Court in 11 and Moonovermanhattan in 12.