VRC Oaks

[Viva la Mattner]

Thoughts and tips for the oaks.

I'll be backing Crafty, if it hadn't layed in down the straight @ caulfield it beats Fontein Ruby and should appreciate jump in distance.

Go Indy Go flew home last start at MV.
Trifecta of 1, 2, 3 and 6

 

[Main Man]

Couldn't back any of them confidently, very even bunch in my opinion, I reckon 5 of them could easily win it.

Abduction was bolting on Saturday, looked as though she was going to gap them and seemed to hit a flat spot, was that the wind (did have an influence on Saturday and she dragged the others into it) or was that her having nothing left in the tank?

Who knows, too many question marks on all of them for me, Lumosity might be too good for them but got away with murder last time, not convinced she is actually that good.

 

[RobbyRoy]

Without having a real look, Go Indy Go is where I'm leaning right now. Only just got going towards the end of the Vase, 2500 looks good.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Any horse that doesn't have that lemon McEvoy on the back of it has a good chance. That bloke is a butcher!

 

[iluvparis]

Can't split Abduction and Crafty - leading marginally towards Abduction at this stage.

Lumosty connections pulled this trick with Mosheen but she had come out of a Group 1 and highly doubt they are anywhere near the same class.

 

[PureFooty]

Seems a race with many chances, I think Lumosty is pretty mart, but not sure she will see out the whole 2500m. Go Indy Go is probably the most talented of the field, and IMO the best closing speed and shouldn't be too worried about the distance. Crafty can win, but I think it's still a bit too raw and though admitting it can win, I don't want to be taking odds of less than 8-9's about it. I'm pretty keen on Abduction and 8.50 is a terrific price. As Main Man said it appeared to be cruising before not really letting down. However, I'll back my judgement and data and say that the wind hampered its winning chances and that it was actually a really really good run. She did it tougher than Thunder Lady, and didn't get the run the TL did. SP 2.90 over 31 also is massive for me. I will also save on Fontein Ruby, Set Square could be good, and lightly raced may speak of the stables opinion, but I'm going to risk that Maastricht form.
Speed map will be key, FR and Abduction can be leading and 5th, Set Square and Lumosty definitely up there. I think Abduction will look the winner, but Go Indy Go will be flying late.
10 Units EW Abduction 8.50/2.90
8 Units Go Indy Go 5.00
2 Units Fontein Ruby

 

[year of the cat]

Crafty will win for no other reason that I took a multi of Hampton Court into Protectionist into Crafty. That's how it works.

 

[muttley45]

Abduction to improve on his last effort behind Thunder Lady

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Crafty safest bet for me because I'm positive she will run the trip, can't say that about a lot of others unless its a walkathon.

Thunder Lady and Set Square my second and third picks for similar reasons but I'll only be backing Crafty.

 

[Jugada]

A11dAtP0w3R we off the Hipster Girl wagon?? If I jump off and she wins at 100-1 I'll be put on suicide watch

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

A11dAtP0w3R we off the Hipster Girl wagon?? If I jump off and she wins at 100-1 I'll be put on suicide watch

I'm off mate, think Crafty is as good a thing as there is tomorrow.

Mind you the run last start not as bad as it appeared. Worst run in the race on Saturday, 3 wide facing the breeze the entire trip. Id rather be her at 100's than Golconda at 21's. The old man says she's fine but I'm just half keen on Crafty.

Having said all that ill probably throw a fiver on her or much like you ill be cooking toast next to the tub while I have a bath tomorrow night if she managed to get up.

Maybe throw her in for third and fourths in exotics.

 

[RU_]

Sorry, still trying to understand things. When they say or read $5 into $1 or $50 into $3, etc what does it mean?

 

[Duritz]

Any horse that doesn't have that lemon McEvoy on the back of it has a good chance. That bloke is a butcher!

Having a horrible spring, isn't he.

 

[Surkin]

Go Indy Go for me. Form stack up Bondeiger who I thought were the best two horses to the line at Mooney Valley.

Golconda could run a cheeky each way race at mid 20's. Got home very well in the Wakeful.

 

[sethlad]

Wakeful form always holds up, Thunder Lady will eat this trip.
May be a strong year but not convinced a few up the top of market will do the same

seth

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sorry, still trying to understand things. When they say or read $5 into $1 or $50 into $3, etc what does it mean?

I assume they are just horrid examples but when a horse is say 11 into 8 it means it opened at $11 and it's been wound into $8 after money has come for it. Like the opposite of every horse Lensen backs.

 

[Gibbsy]

Sorry, still trying to understand things. When they say or read $5 into $1 or $50 into $3, etc what does it mean?

It means don't jump on a horse that's paying $1 to win hahaha

 

[iluvparis]

Wakeful form always holds up, Thunder Lady will eat this trip.
May be a strong year but not convinced a few up the top of market will do the same

seth

Tend to think it generally holds up better when the topweight wins with the penalty.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Going with Abduction, looked a great thing coming down the straight, but that wind was feirce so I'll give it another chance

 

[King Of Money]

Thunder Lady for me....Wakefield form, bred to get the distance, trained to get the distance, and most importantly "It's the vibe of the thing, your Honour."

Plus a little Quinella with Set Square.

 

[PureFooty]

If Abduction starts at double figures i'm gonna have to have a bit more on it, can find 9.50 atm.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Having a horrible spring, isn't he.

That is one way to put it...and you can't say he hasn't have live chances. LV wouldn't have won...but jeez McEvoy gave the horse diddly squat chance of running the trip. Wish Damien Oliver was on LV...and the less said about his butcher the Saturday before the better too!

 

[Keystone agony]

Fontein Ruby. It only went around as a trial run last week. Discount that from your memories and this horse shouldnt be in the mid teens to win.

 

[Tippaz]

Set Square (WIN)

had a 2 length win in the Ethereal over 2000m (a listed race)
has the same sire as Fawkner (Reset) so it should get the trip
i like Hugh Bowman too

 

[Mitchemx]

Just 2 plays for me today after what has been a horrible spring for me so far. Gotta save something for Stakes day as well.

Race 6. Bounding
Race 8. Abduction