WA By-election

Admiral Byng

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By-Election set for 19 September.

Electoral roll closes on Monday 24 August. I'm moving house (into a different electorate) this weekend so I don't think I'll get the chance to update my voting registration before then. Sadly I'll still be on the roll and have to vote.
 
Nov 17, 2013
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The Liberals have preselected 32-y.o. former SAS soldier Andrew Hastie. Labor are yet to announce their candidate, although lawyer Matt Keogh is the favourite:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-17/canning-by-election-set-for-september-19/6702332

PUP will also be putting forward a candidate.


The latest poll:
Newspoll - Canning - Sample size: 508
Liberal: 41 (-10.1)
ALP: 36 (+9.4)
Greens: 11 (+3.6)

2PP
Liberal: 51 (-10.8)
ALP: 49 (+10.8)

Worth noting that preference flows to the Liberals at the last election were kinder in Canning than they were nationally:

22% of Greens' preferences went to Randall last time, compared with 17% to a Liberal on average.
60% of Others' preferences went to Randall last time, compared with 53% to a Liberal on average.

If we assume that this discrepancy is at least partially attributed to Randall's local standing, it's pretty much a dead heat.
 

Baldy Head

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Celebrity candidates is a terrible idea, Nicole Cornes in '07 in Boothby was awful, Southcott should have gone down in that election, and it's possible that the local branch may not have learnt from this.
She should have campaigned in a bikini.
 

Goldenblue

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Canning is my electorate, and I will be voting Greens this time around. Was so impressed with Di Natale on the ABC the other night and he convinced me that the Greens had more going for them than just the environment.
 

Bomberboyokay

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I dont think it'll change tbo. I hope it does to give abbott a stark warning. But i cant see it going to labor. Its generally a pretty safe liberal area

Abbott's already fighting to stay until the next election, not to win the next election. If they lose this he'll be toppled.
 

Belnakor

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The Liberals have preselected 32-y.o. former SAS soldier Andrew Hastie. Labor are yet to announce their candidate, although lawyer Matt Keogh is the favourite:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-17/canning-by-election-set-for-september-19/6702332

PUP will also be putting forward a candidate.


The latest poll:


A couple of things

1) people who would know have Labor taking it.
2) Labor need to put up a credible candidate. Apparantly the seat is very high on males to females ratios which means they cannot presel a woman, but the area up there is feral left (since it is somewhat of a backwater) so Labor might find it hard getting a good male.

The stats on 2nd preferences don't surprise me.. Randall door knocked all year round (not just during election times) so even if people don't like Liberal they won't put him last.

Also need to factor in Randall was an amazing fund raiser which meant he always had a big war chest. the new candidate will not have those advantages.

i'm tipping Labor by 2-3% depending on what kind of candidate they put up.
 

Contra Mundum

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A couple of things

1) people who would know have Labor taking it.
2) Labor need to put up a credible candidate. Apparantly the seat is very high on males to females ratios which means they cannot presel a woman, but the area up there is feral left (since it is somewhat of a backwater) so Labor might find it hard getting a good male.

The stats on 2nd preferences don't surprise me.. Randall door knocked all year round (not just during election times) so even if people don't like Liberal they won't put him last.

Also need to factor in Randall was an amazing fund raiser which meant he always had a big war chest. the new candidate will not have those advantages.

i'm tipping Labor by 2-3% depending on what kind of candidate they put up.

That is ******* massive!!! Are you just being pessimistic Bel?
 

Belnakor

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That is ******* massive!!! Are you just being pessimistic Bel?

i just think the polling is understating most of the factors

1) barnett is on the nose a bit
2) abbott is hated
3) mining boom has ended - FIFO workers are heavy in that area
4) randall's personal vote built over 10 years

Since there is a high male population + FIFO it will make the polling somewhat inaccurate even taking into account their samples IMHO.

I can really just see this seat going labor. I'm not sure a Lawyer is the best candidate, thats the only thing holding them back.
 
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Contra Mundum

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i just think the polling is understating most of the factors

1) barnett is on the nose a bit
2) abbott is hated
3) mining boom has ended - FIFO workers are heavy in that area
4) randall's personal vote built over 10 years

Since there is a high male population + FIFO it will make the polling somewhat inaccurate even taking into account their samples IMHO.

I can really just see this seat going labor. I'm not sure a Lawyer is the best candidate, thats the only thing holding them back.

Makes sense brother - thanks.
 

Contra Mundum

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also mention Labor are putting up a credible candidate which they didn't in 2013. in 2013 they didn't even staff alot of the booths.

I just thought they would go with the usual gormless hack
 

Ratts of Tobruk

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I just thought they would go with the usual gormless hack
I feel for the Lib candidate. That quote Gough relayed does make him seem a bit too right-wing for the centre, and there are a lot of hard-right types in Perth in my experience so south of Perth may be similar?

Unless he's a full kool-aid drinker like the majority of the right-wingers on BF, he should know how poorly Abbott has done. You just have to keep the focus local, you'd think. Both parties probably wish they had more policies to sell.
 
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