West Coast / Collingwood and the top 4

Apr 7, 2010
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Yes they would, but Freo would clearly prefer to avoid a derby final and play a travelling North, Tigers or Bombers.

I for one, would love to see a nothing to lose WC playing against a rampant favourite in Freo. Fair chance there would be some sore and sorry boys on both sides in the aftermath.

If you finish top 4 you have to give yourselves every chance of making the GF, that has to be the goal. Top 4 finishes don't come about all that easily so you have to make the very most of it when they come. I wouldn't say you have 'nothing to lose' just because you'd have exceeded expectations from the start of the year.

Long way to go though, even if WC don't finish in the top 4 a home final would still be huge.
 
Hawthorn didn't win a single game against Geelong after winning that first GF against them until they played them in a knockout final, the only game of the lot that actually mattered. Gotta win when it counts..

I'm constantly amazed that a Qualifying final is routinely dismissed as being unimportant when it comes to discussing the Hawthorn/Geelong 'curse'. Reverse that 2011 result and Hawthorn would probably have won the flag that year instead of Geelong. But hey, that didn't matter at all, right?
 

Jafa

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For anyone to think Collingwood are a top four chance must seriously know next to nothing about AFL. I also take it OP didn't watch the first quarter of the derby this year? Hawthorn and Sydney will do the same to them, eagles are nothing more than an average team with a very good fixture.

And?

Aside from the top 3 positions the 4th position is wide open to a number of teams. Is it really a stretch to think West Coast couldn't be one of them. Personally I think we'll finish in the eight.
 

Jack_the_Ninja

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We're not flag material ( YET ) but our game plan is solid and we are heading in the right direction so give us some credit for goodness sakes.
 

D-N-R

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This shows the spread of losses from fourth place to eighth in the last ten seasons.
2005 - 8 - 10
2006 - 8 - 9
2007 - 8 - 10
2008 - 9 - 10
2009 - 7 - 11
2010 - 8 - 11
2011 - 5 - 10
2012 - 6 - 8
2013 - 6 - 10*
2014 - 6 - 10

Recent trends show that 6 losses max is the cut-off for 4th place and the gap between 4th and 8th has been 3 or 4 games.

Previous to that, we've had seasons where up to 9 losses would still get you in the top four, but the gap between 4th and 8th has only been one or two games with many teams separated by percentage only.

If recent trend is to be taken into account, then
Port (5 losses) would have to turn the corner pretty sharply and not lose any more or at the max, one game. I don't see it happening.
Hawks, Richmond, Essendon, Geelong, Bulldogs and North are on 4 losses. Of those, the Hawks are about the only ones I could see going on an epic run and only dropping 2 more games.
Collingwood and Adelaide are on 3 losses each. It would be a miracle if either of those teams could finish the season only dropping 3 more games.
Above them are West Coast, Sydney and GWS on 2 losses. Sydney would be a lock and they may go the rest of the season with only a couple more losses. GWS would have to continue their form for the whole season which could be difficult for a young side. West Coast would need to beat the likes of North and Geelong in the next couple of weeks to prove they have taken the next step. Very difficult to see them going for the rest of the season with only 4 more losses, though.
Freo are a lock.
All of that is supposing that 6 games is the cut-off. If the cut-off goes to 8 games, then if puts everyone (barring the Bulldogs) from Port upwards in the mix for fourth spot with GWS and WCE in the box seat. Both of those teams could afford to drop 6 games and have a high percentage.

EDIT - Don't mean to disrespect the Bulldogs, but I don't see them as a top eight side just yet. I could probably add Essendon to that, with the 'saga' continuing and their form being a bit up and down, but they may surprise.
 
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May 23, 2010
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For anyone to think Collingwood are a top four chance must seriously know next to nothing about AFL. I also take it OP didn't watch the first quarter of the derby this year? Hawthorn and Sydney will do the same to them, eagles are nothing more than an average team with a very good fixture.
Lol....Don't forget young fella, injuries can come hard and fast and it would take very few to cripple the dockers.
 

mike91

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Lol....Don't forget young fella, injuries can come hard and fast and it would take very few to cripple the dockers.
You heard of depth before? In 2013, Sandilands & Pavlich missed most of the year and we made top four that year.

Injuries may very well come our way, but we're still a top 4 team. Right now I still don't believe we're the best team, to make assumptions like that so early is ridiculous.
 

mike91

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And?

Aside from the top 3 positions the 4th position is wide open to a number of teams. Is it really a stretch to think West Coast couldn't be one of them. Personally I think we'll finish in the eight.
You'll make the eight, top 4 isn't that big of a stretch, favorable fixture makes it realistic, not your actual team. You're a finals team, not a top 4 team.
 
Jul 26, 2007
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North at the MCG
Melb at the MCG
GWS at the MCG
Eagles at ES
Bulldogs at ES
Melb at the MCG
Carlton at the MCG
Richmond at the MCG
Geelong at the MCG
Essendon at the MCG

I would think they should win 9-10 of their remaining games and especially have good momentum up the ladder on the back of the next 3 games (North, Melb, GWS), and then (Melb, Carl, Rich) at the latter stage of the season.

Every one of these games bar Carlton is a 50 / 50 proposition for the Pies IMO.

And if Caaarlton will win a game they shouldn't it would be against the old enemy Collingwood.

Both Eagles and Pies have had softish starts to the year. But that helps build confidence and momentum.

I don't see either side making top four, fifth and sixth is more likely.
 

PieNSauce

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are jealous!
Confused by Collingwood fans saying "they blew it" and "if we just put Brown on Hawkins from the start" against Geelong.

You lost by 40 points, not like it was less than a goal or something... Bizarre.

Also OP locking in this weekend as one of the games West Coast will absolutely win is a bit weird. Geelong are 15-6-1 since 2000 against them, and West Coast's 6 wins in that time have been by an average of under 10 points.

Geelong's average winning margin is over 10 goals...
If I missed something I apologise but I'm not sure what prompted that first comment but I do think people have some right to question how a guy who had spudded it up until that moment was left to tear us a new one on a one legged defender when it was clear to everyone that Reid could barely move. It's not the fact that it happened but merely why it was that no move was even tried. I personally credit Mick with turning TH into a genuine star that day. That said, we were shot well before that game and there was probably not much chance we were ever going to get over the line regardless.

P.S. In reply to the OP... Collingwood - Top 4? Have another drink! :drunk:
 
Apr 18, 2005
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Every one of these games bar Carlton is a 50 / 50 proposition for the Pies IMO.

And if Caaarlton will win a game they shouldn't it would be against the old enemy Collingwood.

Both Eagles and Pies have had softish starts to the year. But that helps build confidence and momentum.

I don't see either side making top four, fifth and sixth is more likely.

Completely disagree. The Eagles run is excellent, and they are in good touch. I expect them to continue to build momentum, and if they are a half decent side with the draw they have the should be top 4.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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If I missed something I apologise but I'm not sure what prompted that first comment but I do think people have some right to question how a guy who had spudded it up until that moment was left to tear us a new one on a one legged defender when it was clear to everyone that Reid could barely move. It's not the fact that it happened but merely why it was that no move was even tried. I personally credit Mick with turning TH into a genuine star that day. That said, we were shot well before that game and there was probably not much chance we were ever going to get over the line regardless.

P.S. In reply to the OP... Collingwood - Top 4? Have another drink! :drunk:

A guy who spudded it to that moment? Please, it wasn't because of the opponent that Hawkins started to turn it on and come into his own. The bloke had all the attributes of being a genuine power forward, it was just a matter of time before he did. Big guys take a while. Give them 80 games or so.

If Reid could barely move then he should not have been playing. If he looked at all proppy, which he did and was, the alarm bells should have rung straight away and he should have been moved. Seems as though not enough people credited Hawkins. Collingwood supporters love to pull this one out as an excuse for Hawkins dominating and you floundering. Malthouse turning him into a star? What a joke.....
 

wormburner67

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Lol....Don't forget young fella, injuries can come hard and fast and it would take very few to cripple the dockers.
When a team has talent like Matt De Boer and Mzungu sitting on the sidelines trying to get a game then I reckon our depth is looking pretty good.
 
Jul 26, 2007
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Completely disagree. The Eagles run is excellent, and they are in good touch. I expect them to continue to build momentum, and if they are a half decent side with the draw they have the should be top 4.

Well on Sunday night we will know a lot more about both sides. North is a good test for Collingwoods credentials and Geelong will test the Eagles, especially after losing Yeo to a bullsh!t MRP decision. Next time he just needs to belt someone behind play and cop a $1,000 fine instead of going hard spoiling in a marking contest.
 
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