Autopsy What did you learn from the NAB Challenge

[bungee]

Do you feel we don't create enough opportunities for our dominance? like in the Freo game we dominated in the middle and just hanged on in the end.

I'd like to see Franklin spend more time up the ground this year. We have guys like McGlynn, Bird, Jack, Towers who can all create havoc in the forward 50 either running into space, crumbing or clearing space for the big forwards. Goodes is 2 forwards in one with his ability to play tall or small. If we can also dominate around 50-70 metres out through Franklin going a-roving (especially when Tippet is resting forward), Goodes going into the midfield, Jetta on a burst, Rohan and our backs getting forward to help (Shaw is pretty good outside the arc) then we become a less predictable attacking team, we lock the ball inside and we spread the goal-kicking load. Hawks have a good formula that our defenders find difficult to match, and will continue to do so, but we can also become a more challenging team to defend. I think the Tippet/Pyke combo will work well in the ruck. We can get first use but we also need to shut down the opposition. That's why I would pencil in JPK & Bird first of any midfielders. Our best ball-getter and our best man-stopper. Jetta and Rohan on the wings to create some more space to work in or to help run the ball out of defence (I don't see either spending the games locked down back), Reid as a swingman helping out down back, causing matchup headaches forward or giving us an out on the rebound. Macca seems best suited to fill Malceski's role. If he had the ball our boys would be running to space anywhere within 50 metres to receive. He may not have Mal's carry but he's a better kick.

 

[bungee]

Just my opinion but if you want to beat hawthorn you need to win the clearances, i havent checked the stats but if they werent number 1 in the league last year for clearances i will eat my hat.

If you dont they just keep the ball going into the backline where we are undersized

Having said that we have the skill to stem that tide, hopefully we have made some adjustments and are ready

Thats why im keen to get mitchell in to help kennedy at the bounces

Develop naismith quick or get decent ruck time into tippett will help

Port are another good clearance side

I imagine the team that wins clearances wins more games than they lose and we struggled at times there


We miss mumford we used to be way better

In 2012 weren't we the (equal) last clearance side in the league ? You're probably right that first clearance is effective against the Hawks but our rebound attack works too. Tackles seem to be our measure of win or lose. The loss of Jude Bolton and the forward pressure he brought was a big one. Pressure on the ball carrier was missing in the GF. That allowed their forwards easy grabs and didn't allow us to rebound. Forward pressure was also missing. Essentially I'm saying we need to beat up on teams, monster them like a pack of mongrel dogs, snapping and chasing until they cough it up That's the Swans I love. Not pretty but effective. The hyenas of football.

 

[bungee]

Just my opinion but if you want to beat hawthorn you need to win the clearances, i havent checked the stats but if they werent number 1 in the league last year for clearances i will eat my hat.

If you dont they just keep the ball going into the backline where we are undersized

Having said that we have the skill to stem that tide, hopefully we have made some adjustments and are ready

Thats why im keen to get mitchell in to help kennedy at the bounces

Develop naismith quick or get decent ruck time into tippett will help

Port are another good clearance side

I imagine the team that wins clearances wins more games than they lose and we struggled at times there


We miss mumford we used to be way better

Your hat remains uneaten. But to put it into perspective the Hawks average 40.9 clearances/game and we average 39 so there's not much there. Restrict Jordan Lewis and we win the clearances. Restrict Josh Kennedy and they do. Lewis, Hodge and Mitchell are their clearance kings with 18 between them in the GF. We should have had at least Bird and Jack in shut down roles. Our spread of multiple clearance getters was better than theirs so it wasn't a case of them shutting us down, it was a matter of us failing to shut down their play-makers.

Edit : The only stat that seems to make a difference between us and Hawks is uncontested possessions. That's probably due to better kicking and/or harder running. When we play Hawks we seem to draw pretty even in the clearance stakes and the number of tackles is not a good indicator (means we're doing the chasing I guess)

 

[dangle]

In 2012 weren't we the (equal) last clearance side in the league ? You're probably right that first clearance is effective against the Hawks but our rebound attack works too. Tackles seem to be our measure of win or lose. The loss of Jude Bolton and the forward pressure he brought was a big one. Pressure on the ball carrier was missing in the GF. That allowed their forwards easy grabs and didn't allow us to rebound. Forward pressure was also missing. Essentially I'm saying we need to beat up on teams, monster them like a pack of mongrel dogs, snapping and chasing until they cough it up That's the Swans I love. Not pretty but effective. The hyenas of football.

Once again Bungee is spot on! Clearances are not as important as you may think. Look at the GF for example. We were only -2 in clearances for the whole game! (-4 stoppage clearances & +2 in centre clearances). They were however +10 in contested possessions and a whopping +137 in uncontested possessions! Add that to the fact that we only laid a pathetic 57 tackles for the entire game. In 2012 GF we laid 110!
I've heard a lot of theories on why we lost that game, but the simple fact is we didn't put ANY pressure on them AT ALL. I was at the game and saw it that way and the stats back it up. We didn't hunt in packs, chase and tackle like we did in the 2012 GF. We didn't hunt in packs, chase and tackles like the Swans do! Like we need to do! The Hawks absolutely smashed us in an area of the game we pride ourselves on and as a result were able to then play to their strengths and spread and find space and attack without us putting a single ounce of pressure on them. Bungee is absolutely correct when he says tackles are our main KPI.
There seems to be a lot of negativity on this board since the GF with people listing all these 'huge problems' we have with certain players, game plan, coaching but in reality we are going ok. We had a great year last year...our best H&A season ever. As long as our boys tackle chase and apply immense pressure, we will beat anyone.....including Hawthorn.

 

[bungee]

Once again Bungee is spot on! Clearances are not as important as you may think. Look at the GF for example. We were only -2 in clearances for the whole game! (-4 stoppage clearances & +2 in centre clearances). They were however +10 in contested possessions and a whopping +137 in uncontested possessions! Add that to the fact that we only laid a pathetic 57 tackles for the entire game. In 2012 GF we laid 110!
I've heard a lot of theories on why we lost that game, but the simple fact is we didn't put ANY pressure on them AT ALL. I was at the game and saw it that way and the stats back it up. We didn't hunt in packs, chase and tackle like we did in the 2012 GF. We didn't hunt in packs, chase and tackles like the Swans do! Like we need to do! The Hawks absolutely smashed us in an area of the game we pride ourselves on and as a result were able to then play to their strengths and spread and find space and attack without us putting a single ounce of pressure on them. Bungee is absolutely correct when he says tackles are our main KPI.
There seems to be a lot of negativity on this board since the GF with people listing all these 'huge problems' we have with certain players, game plan, coaching but in reality we are going ok. We had a great year last year...our best H&A season ever. As long as our boys tackle chase and apply immense pressure, we will beat anyone.....including Hawthorn.

Seems from looking at the stats that it's not tackles exactly but pressure. Hunting in packs and shutting down space. All the accurate kicking in the world won't help them if our guys are there to intercept, to contest the ball or to apply pressure, perceived or otherwise the moment they try to take possession. The tackling seems to me to be a corollary of our pressure game. If we allow them to spread easily they'll grab uncontested possessions. It's that key indicator for the Hawks that determines whether they can beat us or not, for it leaves their forwards in pole position to win inside 50. Conversely, when we have space we are equally devastating going forward with a forward line that, IMO, is at least equal to theirs. Hawks forward line relies heavily on clean inside 50s. Stop the uncontested ball and their wings are clipped.

 

[bungee]

We need as few injuries as possible, their depth outside the best 22 is better on all lines.

I'd love to have O'Rourke, Hartung, Spangher and Ceglar instead of Robinson, Towers, Richards and Naismith - and so would you.

Our depth is looking a bit better with more experience. Laidler, Mitchell, Towers & Heeney for example, none of whom played in our GF team, are all ready made for seniors. We have an abundance of forwards and mids but lack some tall back options otherwise our coverage is pretty good. Robinson will come on (he reminds me of Towers last year). Heeney & Mitchell are at the beginning of their huge potential. Towers has made leaps since last year and Laidler has already shown at Carlton that he has the potential. Jones could be very good if he comes on a bit and BJ showed some improvement in the NAB (though he pops in and out). Lloyd could make another step, Parker will get better, Hanners is not yet back to his best. Goodes is reborn, Franklin & Tippet will get better with every game together. Then AJ will be back next year to add more spine in defence, just as Ted starts to wind down. We haven't seen Rohan or Jetta's best and last year was a quiet one for Jack (with signs that's all behind him now).

Optimistic ? I'm a glass half full on the Swans.

 

[hairy biker]

Some comments on individual players;

Rohan
If you were an opposition coach where would you rather see him play?
1/Leading out from the goal square/applying fwd pressure or
2/running at your team from HB, ball in hand.
IMO Rohan has to be played behind the ball.
He is a an average fwd. He has the potential to be an above average HBF/wing.

T.Mitchell
Much love for him in here, but who does he replace?
JPK is a lock, Bird is our run with player (started on Griffen against GWS), 3 slow midfielders? Longmire clearly likes Lloyd and Cunningham. McGlynn and McVeigh will be selected when available. Shaw isn't going out of the team in the near future. Heeney surely has done enough for a Rd 1 debut.
24 players took the field on Sunday, needs to be cut to 22 for RD 1 and (if fit) places found for McVeigh, McGlynn and Tippett.
Out; Naismith,Robinson, Laidler, Reid and Mitchell would seem the obvious moves, although Reid omitted is a term that seems not to resonate with the coaches and TBH it would not greatly surprise me to see Laidler/Reid in the team, with say Heeney missing out.

Towers
Did enough for a RD 1 place, but he is 25 at the start of May, so development time should be over.

Richards.
Much talk about Shaw ageing, but Ted looks potentially more a liability for me. We can replace Shaw and Malceski (eg Rohan, McVeigh, Jetta, Jones) a lot easier than we can replace Richards and unfortunately I think the end is coming quickly for him.

Overall.
I'm far more concerned it seems than most on here about the season ahead.
I saw nothing in the NAB challenge that indicated we have worked on particular strategies/structures/skills to improve the team.
Movement out of the 50 was generally haphazard, we had little run/overlap, movement into the fwd 50 was as bad as ever.
Other than move Jetta away from contests we seem not to have changed our contested ball/midfield strategy.
Skills, decision making seem not to have improved.
Confidence surged through the team last year on the back of a 12 game winning streak. In recent years we have seen other teams get on a run and look like potential challengers, but ultimately it has hidden flaws.
Franklin carried our fwd line in 2014 (79 goals), doubling our next best scorer (Tippet 34), we lost one of our 4 AA players and guys like Richards, Shaw and Goodes are in the twilight of their careers.
From our GF team we have lost Malceski.
Our 3 emergencies were Laidler, T. Mitchell and Towers. We have brought in Heeney.
Who else is seriously knocking on the door, that would materially improve our team?
Hopefully we will have guys (inside and outside our current best 22) who will continue to develop,but isn't that the same for all teams?

If "we bring our contested game", if key players steer clear of injuries, if some can defy father time then we will continue to be competitive against most teams. However to date I see nothing to indicate we have improved from last season and in some areas (pure defence/movement from the defensive 50) we may have got worse.

I think we will drop down the ladder this year. How far will be dependent upon the factors mentioned above and of course the development/improvement from other teams.


FWIW (depending upon fitness) my expected 22 for RD 1.
Smith Richards Rampe
Shaw Grundy Rohan
McVeigh Jetta
Pyke JPK Bird KJ Parker Hannebery
McGlynn Lloyd Cunningham Heeney
Towers Goodes Franklin
Tippett

Changes from GF
OUT Mal, Reid
IN Heeney Towers.

 

[The King!]

In 2012 weren't we the (equal) last clearance side in the league ? You're probably right that first clearance is effective against the Hawks but our rebound attack works too. Tackles seem to be our measure of win or lose. The loss of Jude Bolton and the forward pressure he brought was a big one. Pressure on the ball carrier was missing in the GF. That allowed their forwards easy grabs and didn't allow us to rebound. Forward pressure was also missing. Essentially I'm saying we need to beat up on teams, monster them like a pack of mongrel dogs, snapping and chasing until they cough it up That's the Swans I love. Not pretty but effective. The hyenas of football.

Yep exactly, we had mumford and bolton could run through, hawks addressed that since 2012 where we beat them 2-1 in the head to head and they only just won at the scg and now they beat us up at clearances

We have the cattle to turn this around

 

[The King!]

Your hat remains uneaten. But to put it into perspective the Hawks average 40.9 clearances/game and we average 39 so there's not much there. Restrict Jordan Lewis and we win the clearances. Restrict Josh Kennedy and they do. Lewis, Hodge and Mitchell are their clearance kings with 18 between them in the GF. We should have had at least Bird and Jack in shut down roles. Our spread of multiple clearance getters was better than theirs so it wasn't a case of them shutting us down, it was a matter of us failing to shut down their play-makers.

Edit : The only stat that seems to make a difference between us and Hawks is uncontested possessions. That's probably due to better kicking and/or harder running. When we play Hawks we seem to draw pretty even in the clearance stakes and the number of tackles is not a good indicator (means we're doing the chasing I guess)

We just need to protect our defenders, if the balls down there all day we are cooked. As is any defence

We also cant allow their keys lewis mitchell and hodge to dominate possession again

But also gotta beat the other teams too

But this is a new year of course

 

[ScrewInStuds]

We need as few injuries as possible, their depth outside the best 22 is better on all lines.

I'd love to have O'Rourke, Hartung, Spangher and Ceglar instead of Robinson, Towers, Richards and Naismith - and so would you.

That's a pretty selective interpretation of our depth. Based on last year's GF teams I think it's more like:

O'Rourke vs Mitchell
Hartung vs Heeney
Spangher vs Laidler
Ceglar vs Naismith

Seems like a much closer result than what you suggested IMO

 

[swansfan51]

That's a pretty selective interpretation of our depth. Based on last year's GF teams I think it's more like:

O'Rourke vs Mitchell
Hartung vs Heeney
Spangher vs Laidler
Ceglar vs Naismith

Seems like a much closer result than what you suggested IMO

Mitchell and Heeney seem to be best 22 according to the overwhelming views of those on our best 22 thread. I don't see Laidler as being able to play a key position, but feel free to put forward a case for it. I like Laidler and expect he'll play the vast majority of the games this year.

 

[RUNVS]

Mitchell and Heeney seem to be best 22 according to the overwhelming views of those on our best 22 thread. I don't see Laidler as being able to play a key position, but feel free to put forward a case for it. I want Laidler in our team anyway but I realise many don't.

I want him there as well. He led the competition in intercept marks in 2011 and that stat alone shows that he would be great as our loose man in defence. He may not be super tall but he would be very good helping out Richards and Grundy, or going onto the oppositions medium sized forward.

 

[ScrewInStuds]

Mitchell and Heeney seem to be best 22 according to the overwhelming views of those on our best 22 thread. I don't see Laidler as being able to play a key position, but feel free to put forward a case for it.

As I said, I based my definition of depth on Swans players who missed out on a GF berth. There's a lot on the Hawks board who see Ceglar replacing Hale in their 22 and O'Rourke fighting with Anderson for a spot too...

Agree that Laidler isn't an exact replacement for Spangher position wise, but there are certainly other similarities: hardworking journeyman who's been through several clubs, has deficiencies but seems to work hard to get the most out of himself etc

 

[The King!]

id go spangher v reid and i bet the hawks wouldnt swap right now

 

[Cadsky]

I was hesitant to believe heeney was as good as the media was making us believe as i thought there would be a great deal of exaggeration to help their fight against academies....i was wrong...he is the real deal and i regard him as a senior player already!!!

I was not a fan of towers last year but now firmly believe he belongs in the 22. Terrific nab challenge...did not star but hardly made a mistake

This

 

[Punts]

This

Wait till Mills then

 

[Cadsky]

Wait till Mills then

Cant get too excited about a bloke I have never seen play. Everything I here in the media just seems like a massive exaggeration.

 

[daymee]

Cant get too excited about a bloke I have never seen play. Everything I here in the media just seems like a massive exaggeration.

A source says Micky O considers him a future Swans captain

 

[MarkP]

A source says Micky O considers him a future Swans captain

*Eddie Maguire dislikes this

 

[The King!]

Wait till Mills then

Im just worried afl will screw us out of him

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

My reasoning for rampe is that he can read the play well but he is a very aggressive player. He can play on quickly and clear the ball long or even go for a trott. The blose has ablett hips and is almost impossible to tackle. Very good at shrugging tackles and fend offs

That's great to hear because I still have vivid memories of him getting completely ragdolled by Buddy in one of his early games against Hawthorn.

 

[cinderella man]

A source says Micky O considers him a future Swans captain

Agree. A source and a pretty good one told me that one of the Academy coaches told him Heeney is going to be good no doubt but Mills
Quote unquote would run rings around him. That is good enough to tell me media scribes claiming he would go number 1 in the next draft would be on the money.

 

[nottenthagain]

Agree. A source and a pretty good one told me that one of the Academy coaches told him Heeney is going to be good no doubt but Mills
Quote unquote would run rings around him. That is good enough to tell me media scribes claiming he would go number 1 in the next draft would be on the money.

I can live with that, when the ugly duckling looks to have 200 gamer stamped on him you know it's good times ahead.

Imagine it..... Mitchell, Heeney, Parker, Cunningham and Mills with 3 more years of development - they'd all be 25 or under and just entering the best years of their careers.

Then imagine they'll be playing with Josh Kennedy, who'll still be in his twenties and then there's Hannebery hitting the peak years of his career.... don't forget Zac Jones and Gary Rohan and maybe throw in Josh Dunkley for good measure. We could draft rucks and KPP's for the next 5 years and still be rock solid around the ground

Getting a bit carried away here but If we can get a few of our talls (any of Naismith, Nankervis, Reid, Aliir, Mellican and fingers crossed AJ) to lock down even a couple of positions we're laughing... and probably doing so for the next decade.

 

[bungee]

I can live with that, when the ugly duckling looks to have 200 gamer stamped on him you know it's good times ahead.

Imagine it..... Mitchell, Heeney, Parker, Cunningham and Mills with 3 more years of development - they'd all be 25 or under and just entering the best years of their careers.

Then imagine they'll be playing with Josh Kennedy, who'll still be in his twenties and then there's Hannebery hitting the peak years of his career.... don't forget Zac Jones and Gary Rohan and maybe throw in Josh Dunkley for good measure. We could draft rucks and KPP's for the next 5 years and still be rock solid around the ground

Getting a bit carried away here but If we can get a few of our talls (any of Naismith, Nankervis, Reid, Aliir, Mellican and fingers crossed AJ) to lock down even a couple of positions we're laughing... and probably doing so for the next decade.

In 3 years time, hmmmm......According to my crystal ball Buddy will still be on our payroll (Give him a walking stick and have him draw their best defender). Tippet will be saying he'll be right for round 1. Goodes will still be playing with his genetically modified knees and bionic torso. Macca will be standing next to Kenny and pointing. Pyke will still be learning the game. BJ will be trying to break into the best 22 and Bird will have two Charlies around his neck. Reid will finally come good and Mitchell will get a whole game where he isn't sub (or subbed). AJ will be on his 8th knee reconstruction before the Swans finally decide to let a qualified surgeon do it rather than Horse's missus. Half the Swans board will be complaining that 'old guys' like Heeney need to move aside and let the next flash-as-rat-with-a-gold-tooth hopeful through. Horse will have 4 premierships but that same half-a-board will complain that he hasn't got a clue. Nick Davis will retire as runner and go back to his beloved pies (and KFC, donuts etc). The AFL will try to engineer a GWS grand final by having them play StKilda for every game of the year. They'll fall on the first final. Game tickets will cost slightly more than a new Merc, beer prices will quadruple and Marlboro will admit to covert advertising of **** after Ciggy the Swan comes clean (on his deathbed).

 

[bungee]

I finally got to watch the entire GWS game and, contrary to some posters, found it to be a great game. Good old fashioned argy-bargy hard at it Swans grunt, mixed with some skilful ball use and topped off with a win despite no KJ, no Buddy and no-one to do the pointing. Overall the NAB Challenge has a been a success for us this year. A few players have improved, a couple of new(ish) faces emerged ready to play in Heeney & Towers. The last game saw a lot of rust shaken out (finally). Only Robinson, Naismith and (prepare for verbals) Mitchell failed to convince me they were ready for Rd 1. Tommy surprised me to the down side with his lack of composure under pressure and terrible disposal. Everything else is there but getting the hard ball is no good if it's coughed up. He might yet play rd 1 against what should be an under-strength Dons just to get him up to speed. I suspect he lacks fitness or otherwise he'd have played more minutes (though he did play about 2.5 quarters). Where the negatives on Shaw come from I just can't see. He still gives us the customary dash and daring in defence and he runs and carries as well as anyone. He still kicks the odd clanger (at least he's consistent) but IMO he's lost nothing. Teddy got shown up against Cameron but that guy is seriously good. Besides, Ted was relying on Reid as the loose man to assist and Sammy's still learning.

In summary then, a good three hitouts with two wins against solid opposition (particularly GWS as the NAB is their only chance to shine). No real injuries and some great fighting spirit shown (did they channel the spirits of Kirk & Kelly over the preseason ?). If the coaching staff had been offered that at the start of the preseason they'd have been rapt.

I'm all for thinking we can go one better this year. The signs are good. Do the guys want it badly enough ?