What is the real state of the economy?

Tomjas00

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what a load of crap.

Really?

Increasing taxes simply decreases the size of the pie UNLESS the economy is growing at a fast enough rate to absorb it

Look out the front window, it ain't good out there

Governments have made the same mistake over and over and over again
 
So you're assuming that, in general, employers will continue to invest, pay higher salaries & benefits and employ more people despite being slugged more in tax

History says you're wrong

What history?

Changing tax revenues do not directly correlate with any measure of economic production - whether it be GNP/GDP, workforce participation, inflation etc etc. Period. You are welcome to cite ABS data to the contrary, but the simple rationale is that increasing income and business tax rates always tends towards an increase in government revenue. People still need to eat, put fuel in their cars, etc etc.
 
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Really?

Increasing taxes simply decreases the size of the pie UNLESS the economy is growing at a fast enough rate to absorb it

Look out the front window, it ain't good out there

Governments have made the same mistake over and over and over again

Rubbish.

Increasing the revenue increases the pie - that's pure logic. The other way to increase the pie is to cut spending, but, not on those programs that affect that those in the lower socio-economic areas. You need to cut programs for the rich and affluent.
 
I had an alarming discussion yesterday regarding the health of China. All sorts of numbers were raised particularly in regards to government officials and fraud.

What resonated the most was a comment of a Japanese style recession is awaiting China. Personally I don't believe it, or may be I just don't want to believe it. What is certain is, if the comments were correct we have very interesting times ahead.

I dare say, if it is correct it would have to be at least 2 years away as the trade levels still seem reasonable. That said, the amount of funds that have been sent overseas to the US, UK and Oz would be creating a massive liquidity and capital issue for them.

If China catches a cold, we will catch the flu!
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Why would revenue increase?

Ever think that business/consumer confidence would go through the floor and that revenue would actually decrease?

But decreasing government spending also will effect business and consumer confidence negatively.

Tax cuts for lower income socio economic groups can have a stimulatory effect on the economy. Lower income people if given more discretionary income are more likely to spend that money back into the economy (or at least the parts of the economy that create jobs). The top end though if given tax cuts will invest that in speculative investments (shares, property etc) and starve the real economy of that money.

So taxing higher income socio economic groups more will not only increase government revenue but not have much of a negative effect on the economy.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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I employ 98 people

If you were one of them and asked me for a salary hike after a tax increase then there would have to be a bloody good reason for it or else it would be a case of share my pain

And why would you give him a salary hike even if you were given a tax cut? You will just pocket the money yourself. If the jobs market induces you to have to give him a pay rise (because your competition for instance is offering him better) then you will have to give him a pay rise or risk losing your employee to a rival firm. If your employee has no alternatives then you can tell him to stick it.
 
Apr 2, 2013
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I had an alarming discussion yesterday regarding the health of China. All sorts of numbers were raised particularly in regards to government officials and fraud.

Even more alarming is the fact that any spare capital the Chinese Industrialists and start ups have is going to foriegn nations. In that they are buying up Africa and soon to be Australia probably. Makes sense really why keep buying commodities and the raw materials to be imported for manufacture when a bunch of idiots want to give them away at bargain rates so they control the process from go to wooo. (How long before guards <troops are stationed to protect their assets>)? So in essence without a land tax/some form of proper fee and a total loss of ownership Australia will be at best case some giant shopping centre/foreign playground for the wealthy (hope te kids like hospitality work) or worse case end up some washed up once glorious resource rich nation that goes arse up.

Can't really speak as to the domestic situation in China except a lot depends on their exchange rate. If that were to drop substantially that could damage their exports (correct? some would know more then me) which is bad news all round for those they are exporting to as they rely on selling at a mark up. So Australia would lose demand for resources and the profit margin at the end=we'd be fuc*&ed.

Internally it is one thing to grow a middle class but I do wonder how sustainable their model is? They are forward planners thou unlike Australia who just sort of lurch lately from one trend to another.
 
Even more alarming is the fact that any spare capital the Chinese Industrialists and start ups have is going to foriegn nations. In that they are buying up Africa and soon to be Australia probably. Makes sense really why keep buying commodities and the raw materials to be imported for manufacture when a bunch of idiots want to give them away at bargain rates so they control the process from go to wooo. (How long before guards <troops are stationed to protect their assets>)? So in essence without a land tax/some form of proper fee and a total loss of ownership Australia will be at best case some giant shopping centre/foreign playground for the wealthy (hope te kids like hospitality work) or worse case end up some washed up once glorious resource rich nation that goes arse up.

Can't really speak as to the domestic situation in China except a lot depends on their exchange rate. If that were to drop substantially that could damage their exports (correct? some would know more then me) which is bad news all round for those they are exporting to as they rely on selling at a mark up. So Australia would lose demand for resources and the profit margin at the end=we'd be fuc*&ed.

Internally it is one thing to grow a middle class but I do wonder how sustainable their model is? They are forward planners thou unlike Australia who just sort of lurch lately from one trend to another.

lot's of issues in the above but the last paragraph is the most interesting to me.

I spent a lot of time with my grandparents growing up and their lives were shaped by the second world war and the depression. Economic instability = social instability and we have seen this time and time again. A nation then has to choose between dealing with an internal struggle or focus that negative energy externally.

We all know what germany did, we all know what the US does and why should China be any different.


I am less worried about mining of resources as peak resource predictions will prove to be as silly as peak oil. Mineral economics suggests that resource supplies will increase (not decrease) in time and the price volatility will reduce. Essentially we will move away from high grade 5-10 year mine life operations to 500 year low grade mine lives.

I have a bauxite mine in guinea with a 600 year mine life and will be a top 5 producer on the planet by project when it reaches full production. Another business is constructing a salt mine in Somalia which has an infinite life which will be shipped to the middle east for PVC production. The waste product of PC is caustic which is a chemical used in converting bauxite to alumina. Then the alumina is converted to aluminium using the middle east's vast cheap energy reserves.

This is the future of mining and has massive social benefits as FIFO will become a thing of the past. As longer mine lives means schools, hospitals, power stations, desal plants wand other social infrastructure can be built making it suitable for families.
 
Apr 2, 2013
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As per above the last paragraph refers to thae fact that their economic model predominantly relied on state based infrastructure projects to create jobs and build a middle class. This was predominantly funded by buying in minerals having a few sweat shop workers and selling them back when they came. To do this however you need eventually to create demand/innovate for yourself. You can't just afford to underwrite everyone elses labour.

However the Chinese know what they are doing I believe and are playing a long game. Sure it's not ideal to have sweat shops but those people work for $2 a day or starve and it is at least something that goes somewhere when they have a low PPP). What profits they started with they will invest in foreign assets and control the process from the get go and essentially own the world and dominate.

Failing that as @PowerRaid puts it above they have a surplus male population who no doubt frustrated by poverty and lack of opportunity will be nice and geed up for the fight if they go the German approach. Domestic unrest tends to mean the fascists take over.

Australia meanwhile stupidly allows itself to be a leg up for others and assumes others intentions are pure and they won't look after no. 1 if the sh(* hits the fan. So while things escalate we are off in the middle east, too scared to nuke up and take charge.
 
As per above the last paragraph refers to thae fact that their economic model predominantly relied on state based infrastructure projects to create jobs and build a middle class. This was predominantly funded by buying in minerals having a few sweat shop workers and selling them back when they came. To do this however you need eventually to create demand/innovate for yourself. You can't just afford to underwrite everyone elses labour.

However the Chinese know what they are doing I believe and are playing a long game. Sure it's not ideal to have sweat shops but those people work for $2 a day or starve and it is at least something that goes somewhere when they have a low PPP). What profits they started with they will invest in foreign assets and control the process from the get go and essentially own the world and dominate.

Failing that as @PowerRaid puts it above they have a surplus male population who no doubt frustrated by poverty and lack of opportunity will be nice and geed up for the fight if they go the German approach. Domestic unrest tends to mean the fascists take over.

Australia meanwhile stupidly allows itself to be a leg up for others and assumes others intentions are pure and they won't look after no. 1 if the sh(* hits the fan. So while things escalate we are off in the middle east, too scared to nuke up and take charge.

Yep, certainly interesting times

I predict small wars and skirmishes like the cold war. My punt is China will smash some middle eastern nation with oil, have a shot at the Philippines (without success) and an african nation over copper.

Longer term, I am very positive we will live in a better world as we have done century after century.
 
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Yep, certainly interesting times

I predict small wars and skirmishes like the cold war. My punt is China will smash some middle eastern nation with oil, have a shot at the Philippines (without success) and an african nation over copper.

Longer term, I am very positive we will live in a better world as we have done century after century.

Resource wars indeed. Don't think Australia will be completely out of t either. On both sides of the ledger.
 
Resource wars indeed. Don't think Australia will be completely out of t either. On both sides of the ledger.

we rarely are.

we have been at war, or conflict, more years than not since the birth of our nation.
 
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we rarely are.

we have been at war, or conflict, more years than not since the birth of our nation.

Yes we know who to thank for that.

Our peace loving leaders have almost salivated at the opportunity to have young Australians killed. It gives our leaders the chance to tell the public how important war is. 'King & Country,' the 'Domino effect', 'weapons of mass deception':rolleyes: etc etc.

The leaders can wave them off in fit of pride, nationalism, jingoism, & a just a touch of xenophobia.

Then when the bodies return the leaders can attend funerals & hug the families of the brave fallen, Then they can welcome the troops back in a fanfare & hand out medals.

Thats the 'political' reality of war. Bloody pathetic, bloody sick really.
 
Yes we know who to thank for that.

Our peace loving leaders have almost salivated at the opportunity to have young Australians killed. It gives our leaders the chance to tell the public how important war is. 'King & Country,' the 'Domino effect', 'weapons of mass deception':rolleyes: etc etc.

The leaders can wave them off in fit of pride, nationalism, jingoism, & a just a touch of xenophobia.

Then when the bodies return the leaders can attend funerals & hug the families of the brave fallen, Then they can welcome the troops back in a fanfare & hand out medals.

Thats the 'political' reality of war. Bloody pathetic, bloody sick really.

I am not anti-war but certainly not pro-war. It is one of those necessary evils sometimes, but I question how "sometimes" happens so regularly.

What is sick is the celebration of war, the fan fare and the willingness of society to participate in ANZAC day. I know s lot of people will be offended by including ANZAC day celebrations into this but it is just part of the machine of war.
 

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http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...as-wage-growth-stagnates-20150225-13o08c.html

Wage growth at its lowest level in 17 years.

So lets look at what's going on right now. Unemployment at its highest level in 12 years. Wage growth the lowest in 17 (aren't we constantly told that lower wages leads to lower unemployment). Consumer confidence in the toilet. Debt still increasing. GDP growth basically non existent.

And these people call themselves good economic managers?
 
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...as-wage-growth-stagnates-20150225-13o08c.html

Wage growth at its lowest level in 17 years.

So lets look at what's going on right now. Unemployment at its highest level in 12 years. Wage growth the lowest in 17 (aren't we constantly told that lower wages leads to lower unemployment). Consumer confidence in the toilet. Debt still increasing. GDP growth basically non existent.

And these people call themselves good economic managers?
Carbon tax, mining tax, stop the boats...
 

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Why the govs attack on research is so short sighted and destructive. I have been banging on about the potential of advanced fabrication and manufacture, as well as automation for yonks. We need to increase diversity and find new growth areas, stuffing the csiro and unis make this more difficult.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-26/australian-researchers-create-first-3d-jet-engine/6262462


3D printing: Australian researchers create jet engine, breakthrough captures attention of Airbus and Boeing
Professor Smith said the discovery could be an opportunity for the declining manufacturing industry.

"The real impact [of the car industry's decline] is the demise of the supply chain industry that supports the automotive sector," he said.

"We would like to think that revolutionary, disruptive technologies like this can take the place of some of the more traditional industries.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-26/australian-researchers-create-first-3d-jet-engine/6262462
 

Tomjas00

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Good article by Bernard Salt in today's Australian

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sub...tory-e6frg9jx-1227239020347&memtype=anonymous

It contains a paywall so inaccessible to non-subscribers

Basic summary

ATO provides tax figures on its website

Richest 2% of Australians contribute 26% of all tax revenue at a rate of well above 40% on gross income

Conclusions

Rich can pay more and do

Claims that they avoid tax on a wholesale basis are nonsense

Rich cant do it all and virtually everyone else is being massively subsidised by them
 
Mar 17, 2009
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I am not anti-war but certainly not pro-war. It is one of those necessary evils sometimes, but I question how "sometimes" happens so regularly.

What is sick is the celebration of war, the fan fare and the willingness of society to participate in ANZAC day. I know s lot of people will be offended by including ANZAC day celebrations into this but it is just part of the machine of war.

Have to disagree with you on ANZAC day. The troops are sent by our pollies. The young men & women are just doing a job, a dirty job. When the come back, marching, being wheeled along or in a body bag, I believe we should respect them. We should remember the ones who dies & suffered,thats what ANZAC day is all about. Its not a celebration of war, Its the opposite to that. Its a remembrance for ones who did not come back. I still respect the troops even if the war/conflict is wrong.

Its the leaders who are totally at fault. I can see how we were sucked into WW1, WW2 was forced upon us. Korea was a police action with the UN. Just about all the rest were political bulldust.
 
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