What is the real state of the economy?

[Eagle87]

Some people on here think Australians are pretty dumb, don't they? Apparently if we don't drop our minimum wage to match China and India then we are in trouble economically.

The only people I 'meet' who seem so obstinately dumb that they could only be trusted with menial tasks are found online. People who might, for example, think workers for Ford/Holden/Toyota/Bluescope were on minimum wage...

The dumb people are those who think that's the argument

 

[Max zero]

I tend to agree, but don't necessarily share the pessimism.

Making sudden changes is a political non-starter, and likely to cause economic shocks. The best we can do is start to reverse the trend through incremental changes over time.

As for cheap labour in India and China swamping us, the long term trend is for a squeezing of them from both sides. Cheaper labour still in Africa, more sophisticated automation in advanced countries.

I think I am pessimistic for good reason. Which government do you see would be willing to take the political pain that even incremental changes would make?

 

[Max zero]

Tell that to the auto / steel / manufacturing workers in ... the USA. A much lower cost country.

No one can compete with China's mass labour force. It's stupid to even try to. Only way to beat it is via automation, but that still puts people out of work.

Further to that, the Chinese government embark on massive government sponsorship of their heavy industries. Is this the path you wish Australia to tread? We could have all the car companies and steel makers back if our government threw everything at nurturing that industry.

China's situation is as much 'unsustainable' as Australia's.

No we won't. The corollary of a low income country manufacturing is high income countries buying. Part of H&M or Apple's massive success is their low cost manufacturing in Bangladesh or China and their high income purchasers in the Western world. They don't generate massive profits without both sides of the equation.

You want to aim Australia at being like Bangladesh in a race to the bottom. I say we aim to be a wealthy country. Wealth isn't generated by emulating the poor.

Way to miss the point. I have already said Australian manufacturing is dead in Australia. Your the one claiming everything is fine.

There is no point aiming to race Bangladesh to the bottom since we can't even tread water let alone make improvements. Remember our budget position got WORSE during the biggest boom in a generation.

The Australian people want to sacrifice nothing to gain everything.

 

[Max zero]

RIO & BHP have the lowest Ore extraction costs in Australia - it's the next tier of companies that have issues (FMG, and check out MGX - trading lower than their cash backing!).

We need to focus on value-add industries to avoid our current Dutch-disease like symptoms. Our biggest value add industry and 3rd largest overall after coal & iron ore is education yet we face increasing competition in this sector.

Yet even Rio is thinking of pulling out of Australian Iron Ore. Does not bode well.

What value add industries do you think we could compete on?

 

[Elroo]

Yet even Rio is thinking of pulling out of Australian Iron Ore. Does not bode well.

What value add industries do you think we could compete on?

Since when has Rio been thinking of pulling out of Australian Iron Ore?

 

[Max zero]

Since when has Rio been thinking of pulling out of Australian Iron Ore?

Not been following the news huh?

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...and-copper-units/story-e6frfkur-1227240949382

 

[clogged]

Way to miss the point. I have already said Australian manufacturing is dead in Australia. Your the one claiming everything is fine.

There is no point aiming to race Bangladesh to the bottom since we can't even tread water let alone make improvements. Remember our budget position got WORSE during the biggest boom in a generation.

The Australian people want to sacrifice nothing to gain everything.

So what?

 

[clogged]

Not been following the news huh?

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...and-copper-units/story-e6frfkur-1227240949382

Where does that say they are pulling out?

 

[clogged]

I think I am pessimistic for good reason.

You are pessimistic about everything. You must be an utter joy to be around.

 

[Elroo]

Not been following the news huh?

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...and-copper-units/story-e6frfkur-1227240949382

And?

Zero mention of Rio Tinto pulling out of their Australian Iron Ore Operations.

 

[Max zero]

And?

Zero mention of Rio Tinto pulling out of their Australian Iron Ore Operations.

No just consolidating all their Australian operations and mass redundancies in their workforce.

Everything is fine.

If Rio is one of the lowest cost producers what does that mean for other Iron Ore producers.

 

[Max zero]

You are pessimistic about everything. You must be an utter joy to be around.

I am because I am realistic. I don't pander to people with some feelgood nonsense.

 

[Admiral Byng]

I think I am pessimistic for good reason. Which government do you see would be willing to take the political pain that even incremental changes would make?

One day we'll elect a government of grown-ups.

 

[Max zero]

So what?

You want to aim Australia at being like Bangladesh in a race to the bottom. I say we aim to be a wealthy country. Wealth isn't generated by emulating the poor.

Thats what you claimed I wanted. You were wrong and I corrected you.

Aim to be a wealthy country? As opposed to aiming to be a poor country? How exactly do we go about this when few of our industries are internationally competitive?

You have a lot of dreams but no money to pay for them.

 

[Max zero]

One day we'll elect a government of grown-ups.

That's sounds more like a hope then a strongly held belief.

The problem the Australian people have shown that they don't want responsible government they just want free s**t.

This thread is a great example. Have a look through the posts and compare how many posters are asking for something and compare it to those who show how we will pay for it.

 

[clogged]

No just consolidating all their Australian operations and mass redundancies in their workforce.

Everything is fine.

If Rio is one of the lowest cost producers what does that mean for other Iron Ore producers.

So now you backtrack, as usual.

 

[Elroo]

No just consolidating all their Australian operations and mass redundancies in their workforce.

Everything is fine.

If Rio is one of the lowest cost producers what does that mean for other Iron Ore producers.

1. The article no where state's Rio is pulling out of their Australian Iron Ore iron operations.

2. The article is based upon the Pilbara alliance workers rep' re union worried about job losses in the Iron Ore sector.

3. There will be a period of redundancies as all producers cut back their costs after years of expansion to reduce their costs down the production cost curve.

4. Rio is one of the lowest, if not the lowest cost iron ore producers in the world.

5. What does it mean for other producers? That question is already being answered with higher cost mines such as in China shutting down and Chinese steel makers importing ore from Australia.

 

[clogged]

Thats what you claimed I wanted. You were wrong and I corrected you.

Aim to be a wealthy country? As opposed to aiming to be a poor country? How exactly do we go about this when few of our industries are internationally competitive?

You have a lot of dreams but no money to pay for them.

You are lamenting the loss of Australian manufacturing. I am pointing out the reality. You don't seem to understand that nothing Australia does, save dramatically increasing the population and cutting living standards at the same time, will stop the larger and lower cost countries taking those industries which require a massive labour force to get the right economies of scale.

Nothing will be missed when very few are employed in manufacturing.

 

[Admiral Byng]

That's sounds more like a hope then a strongly held belief.

The problem the Australian people have shown that they don't want responsible government they just want free s**t.

This thread is a great example. Have a look through the posts and compare how many posters are asking for something and compare it to those who show how we will pay for it.

That's true, and it spreads to every level of society, and each level thinks the others are ripping off they system. But that is probably true of every developed nation. I noticed Morrison was talking about stopping welfare rorts as if that's his highest priority, pandering to the extreme right wing.

But it can be sold politically if the pain is deferred. I think most people will accept that the budget is in structural deficit and some changes are needed. I think modest changes upfront that don't kick in for a few years into the future is the way to go. Changes that won't really bite until the next term of government, even if the government changes they won't be undone.

We don't need radical changes, we are not Greece. We will become like Greece if we stay on of present trajectory but it will still take 20 years to get there. I think there is plenty of scope for incremental changes that don't take immediate effect, without the government that introduces them being booted out of office next election.

 

[Lester Burnham]

You are lamenting the loss of Australian manufacturing. I am pointing out the reality. You don't seem to understand that nothing Australia does, save dramatically increasing the population and cutting living standards at the same time, will stop the larger and lower cost countries taking those industries which require a massive labour force to get the right economies of scale.

Nothing will be missed when very few are employed in manufacturing.

I don't think it's inevitable. The UK production of vehicles has remained strong.

The Financial Times has forecast that annual UK vehicle production will exceed its historic peak level (achieved in 1972) by 2017. Their forecasted production levels for 2014 to 2017 are: 2014: 1,724,000 units; 2015: 1,864,000 units; 2016: 1,993,000 units and 2017: 2,062,000 units.​

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom#2011_to_present

 

[clogged]

I don't think it's inevitable. The UK production of vehicles has remained strong.

The Financial Times has forecast that annual UK vehicle production will exceed its historic peak level (achieved in 1972) by 2017. Their forecasted production levels for 2014 to 2017 are: 2014: 1,724,000 units; 2015: 1,864,000 units; 2016: 1,993,000 units and 2017: 2,062,000 units.​

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom#2011_to_present

How many people are employed in automotive manufacturing in the UK now vs 1972?

Half? A quarter?

 

[Elroo]

I don't think it's inevitable. The UK production of vehicles has remained strong.

The Financial Times has forecast that annual UK vehicle production will exceed its historic peak level (achieved in 1972) by 2017. Their forecasted production levels for 2014 to 2017 are: 2014: 1,724,000 units; 2015: 1,864,000 units; 2016: 1,993,000 units and 2017: 2,062,000 units.​

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom#2011_to_present

i have to agree with you. Australia's manufacturing industry isn't going to die, it just won't remain as the high cost low productive sector it is now.

 

[clogged]

I don't think it's inevitable. The UK production of vehicles has remained strong.

The Financial Times has forecast that annual UK vehicle production will exceed its historic peak level (achieved in 1972) by 2017. Their forecasted production levels for 2014 to 2017 are: 2014: 1,724,000 units; 2015: 1,864,000 units; 2016: 1,993,000 units and 2017: 2,062,000 units.​

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom#2011_to_present

Not automotive manufacturing, but the entire manufacturing industry in the UK:

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn01942.pdf

1982: 5,551,000 jobs
...
2014: 2,583,000 jobs

Does anyone see manufacturing requiring a mass labour force returning? If so, why not agriculture as well? That once employed millions too.

 

[Max zero]

You are lamenting the loss of Australian manufacturing. I am pointing out the reality. You don't seem to understand that nothing Australia does, save dramatically increasing the population and cutting living standards at the same time, will stop the larger and lower cost countries taking those industries which require a massive labour force to get the right economies of scale.

Nothing will be missed when very few are employed in manufacturing.

So we should do nothing at all? It's all just too hard?

And you wonder why I am pessimistic?

 

[Max zero]

That's true, and it spreads to every level of society, and each level thinks the others are ripping off they system. But that is probably true of every developed nation. I noticed Morrison was talking about stopping welfare rorts as if that's his highest priority, pandering to the extreme right wing.

But it can be sold politically if the pain is deferred. I think most people will accept that the budget is in structural deficit and some changes are needed. I think modest changes upfront that don't kick in for a few years into the future is the way to go. Changes that won't really bite until the next term of government, even if the government changes they won't be undone.

We don't need radical changes, we are not Greece. We will become like Greece if we stay on of present trajectory but it will still take 20 years to get there. I think there is plenty of scope for incremental changes that don't take immediate effect, without the government that introduces them being booted out of office next election.

Yes all political sides have their pet 'other' that are to blame for taking all our money.

Which incremental changes do you think the Australian public will accept?