List Mgmt. What our defence will look like in 2015

[The King!]

Our defence from the 2005 flag up to 2012 at least was one of the best units.

I realise defence these days is about pushing numbers back and if you cannot play both ways you arent going to play, but im speficially focusing on the back 6-8 defenders.

I think in 2012 we conceded the least points against. We had Richards (all australian) Grundy and AJ with Lrt as a swingman if needed, so it seemed we had talls covered. We had smith, mattner, shaw and malceski to provide lock down, run and importantly key disposal out of defence, we were hard to score against,

Now my biggest area of concern going forward is the defence. Is our defence still one of the best? Early form suggest no. I am not sure who we have coming through really,Xavier Richards i guess?

Feels like Richards has lost his mojo to me and is starting to struggle more one on one, Grundy has been pretty constant, but they often get in each others way.

The Johnson injury obviously leaves a massives hole, mattner is gone and the use of the ball out of defence seems to have faded.


It seems this year there are a lot more spoils of each other in defence, or mutiple men flying for one contest conceding possession to a waiting forward and our movement out of defence seems to result in a lot more turnovers.

I guess my long winded topic is where do we sit as a defensive unit, who are our best back 6-8 going forward and have we neglected this aspect of the list? Anyone else concerned with the defence post 2012 or is just me

 

[The King!]

So line up the fully fit back 6 in 2015

B. grundy, richards, smith
hb rohan, reid, johnson

?? And drafted player on bench perhaps


I think time inside our back 50 has increased since 2012. Stats may say otherwise of course, but feels like our mid/fwd line let the ball get back in there with repeat entries a lot.

I think others still see as a contender, as a good side, but not as one of the best defensive sides

 

[Punts]

So line up the fully fit back 6 in 2015

B. grundy, richards, smith
hb rohan, reid, johnson

?? And drafted player on bench perhaps


I think time inside our back 50 has increased since 2012. Stats may say otherwise of course, but feels like our mid/fwd line let the ball get back in there with repeat entries a lot.

I think others still see as a contender, as a good side, but not as one of the best defensive sides[/quot

Wont happen but I would like to see
B - Grundy - Richards - Smith
HB - Rohan - Reid - Malceski
B- AJ , quick rebounding defence with AJ , Reid , Rohan , Mal down there.
Rohan provides run and carry and will take someone descent to cover him , plus will get him in the game more and it lets Mal to not get so much attention.

 

[The King!]

Shaw retired?

If tippett and franklin get going and we get another ruck as well (pyke is getting on anyway) so tippett doesnt have to ruck, then yeah reid is probably not needed forward, i still like him better forward but it does seem there is a backline spot there.

I am keen for reid to have a spot at least 90% of the time either way not moving him up and down every quarter.

Though need him to stay on the park

 

[Superstar swan]

I still have faith in Richards, he touched up Cameron in the first half against the giants this year before the rest of the team caved in. I still feel confident he will make the day very hard for his opponent. Grundy I am fine with, as long as he doesn't have the ball. Occasionally he has brain fades and loses his opponent but generally pretty good. No faith at all when he has it in his hands.

Shaw looks sloppy to me, still providing run which is important but his disposal appear careless at times and that hurts coming of the half back line .

Rampe , very good one on one, disposal is iffy but as long as he kicks it long down the line of the boundary I'm happy for him to be in the team.

Mal. Very good at times, plays the loose man perfectly and gets to many contests he is able to influence, sometimes tries to hard with his kicks and bites off more than he can chew. As long as he breaks lines but still lowers his eyes when required.

 

[The King!]

Ideal world to maximise richards career he would slide over to a number 2 role behind player x

 

[MF]

Despite the fact he was only in his second season(?) at his best Johnson is a massive, massive loss. The kid had ridiculous closing speed for someone of his height and was so quick off the mark and smart with the football that there's no one player who can fill that void.

 

[Bonz]

Honestly think we will make Jones a half back flanker, whilst he has many attributes for a midfielder, he played most of his football in defence as a junior, has great closing speed, can use the ball and is hard at it.

As for Johnson, fingers crossed that we can get him right, but at the current point in time I don't think he will be back at his best for at least 2-3 seasons and thats only if he can some how stay fit.

It might be a good idea to recruit a key defender in this years draft, and if we can somehow get hold of a top ten selection Jake Lever is a very similar player to Johnson and could be a player that could play as early as next year (We could also possibly look at Liam Dawson at our most likely selection (11-15) but he may take a season or two to develop.

 

[Superstar swan]

Honestly think we will make Jones a half back flanker, whilst he has many attributes for a midfielder, he played most of his football in defence as a junior, has great closing speed, can use the ball and is hard at it.

As for Johnson, fingers crossed that we can get him right, but at the current point in time I don't think he will be back at his best for at least 2-3 seasons and thats only if he can some how stay fit.

It might be a good idea to recruit a key defender in this years draft, and if we can somehow get hold of a top ten selection Jake Lever is a very similar player to Johnson and could be a player that could play as early as next year (We could also possibly look at Liam Dawson at our most likely selection (11-15) but he may take a season or two to develop.

Are jones foot skills high enough for him to be a standout out on the flank. I haven't seen too much of him play and all I know is that he is ferocious, courageous and hunts the footy

 

[Bonz]

Are jones foot skills high enough for him to be a standout out on the flank. I haven't seen too much of him play and all I know is that he is ferocious, courageous and hunts the footy

His footskill's aren't at Malceski's level, but they are still above average.

Personally I think he will be a great replacement for Shaw in the future.

 

[Punts]

Honestly think we will make Jones a half back flanker, whilst he has many attributes for a midfielder, he played most of his football in defence as a junior, has great closing speed, can use the ball and is hard at it.

As for Johnson, fingers crossed that we can get him right, but at the current point in time I don't think he will be back at his best for at least 2-3 seasons and thats only if he can some how stay fit.

It might be a good idea to recruit a key defender in this years draft, and if we can somehow get hold of a top ten selection Jake Lever is a very similar player to Johnson and could be a player that could play as early as next year (We could also possibly look at Liam Dawson at our most likely selection (11-15) but he may take a season or two to develop.

A must if LRT , Walsh finish up as we will have no depth in this area

 

[disgruntled goat]

I wouldn't mind us looking at that Watson bloke from Carlton, who's been underwhelming in his career to date but has the physical strength and size to be better than what he's showing at the Blues. He's on the outer there ... and we definitely need to bolster our stocks.

 

[Bonz]

I wouldn't mind us looking at that Watson bloke from Carlton, who's been underwhelming in his career to date but has the physical strength and size to be better than what he's showing at the Blues. He's on the outer there ... and we definitely need to bolster our stocks.

Wouldn' be against this, has taken a little time to develop but would make a fantastic full back I reckon still.

Will cost a late 1st round early 2nd round selection.

 

[Lazar Goz]

Our forwards and midfield is pretty young but I said this 2 years ago we should have gotten or recruited a key defender somebody like Luke Thompson whos not getting a game at Adelaide would have been a good get, Richards seems like he has slowed down a little bit so far this year so I hope we can get a Tall defender this year and definetly a ruckman that has fallen out of favor.

When Mumford left I 100% beleived that we would target a ruckman but we didnt, In the finals when Clubs have Sandi, McEvoy and McIntosh we could be in a bit of trouble.

 

[TripleB]

Will cost a late 1st round early 2nd round selection.

You've gotta be kidding me. He said that Watson bloke from Carlton, not that Watson bloke from Essendon.

3rd/4th rounder at best and we'd still be getting the rough end of it....

 

[Bonz]

You've gotta be kidding me. He said that Watson bloke from Carlton, not that Watson bloke from Essendon.

3rd/4th rounder at best and we'd still be getting the rough end of it....

He is still only 21 years of age and young KPD's have a premium on the trade market.

The best we could hope for would be a mid second round selection.

 

[TripleB]

He is still only 21 years of age and young KPD's have a premium on the trade market.

The best we could hope for would be a mid second round selection.

Not necessarily arguing the pros and cons of Watson, just that you are SERIOUSLY overrating the value of players in the trade market.

 

[Bonz]

Not necessarily arguing the pros and cons of Watson, just that you are SERIOUSLY overrating the value of players in the trade market.

In recent times any defender that is on the trade market has had an upscaled value.

If the player is 22 or younger, has potential and is contracted most clubs won't be getting rid of them for anything less than a second round selection, especially if they are a key position player.

 

[GarnerSmash]

So line up the fully fit back 6 in 2015

B. grundy, richards, smith
hb rohan, reid, johnson

?? And drafted player on bench perhaps
I think time inside our back 50 has increased since 2012. Stats may say otherwise of course, but feels like our mid/fwd line let the ball get back in there with repeat entries a lot.

I think others still see as a contender, as a good side, but not as one of the best defensive sides

I hope it's ok to butt in here, but I was doing a bit of analysis of defensive efficiency for teams once they concede an inside 50. I know it's only round 3 but here you go anyway.

I looked at how good Freo and Hawthorn have been so far in restricting scoring shots once the ball gets into their defensive 50 and comparing that to North. I then looked at Sydney to determine their effectiveness because we play you guys this weekend.

Ave Inside 50's conceded:
Freo: 49
Haw: 50
NM: 53
Syd: 51.3
So, not much in it really. However, when you look at the average scoring shots conceded per game things look a wee bit different.

Ave scoring shots against:
Freo: 22.33
Haw: 25.66
NM: 21.66
Syd: 29.66

In short Freo are conceding a scoring shot 45.57% of the time the opposition get the ball inside 50, Hawks 51.3%, North 40.88% and Sydney 57.81%. I don't think that this comes down solely to the quality of personnel in the D50 but other factors such as quality of entry, pressure on the ball carrier etc need to be taken into account also. You guys will clearly have a much better idea of what this means, if anything, for the longer term, but as numbers it's pretty interesting stuff.

 

[TripleB]

In recent times any defender that is on the trade market has had an upscaled value.

Would you care to run an example or two past me???

 

[Bonz]

Would you care to run an example or two past me???

Best example I can think of is St Kilda trying to recruit Brown from West Coast.

 

[TripleB]

Best example I can think of is St Kilda trying to recruit Brown from West Coast.

And the deal didn't get done because WC had a need for him and weren't prepared to let him go for what the (probably fair) trade value was for him and StKilda weren't prepared to pay a 'late first rounder' which is what was suggested for Watson. It sort of proves my point...

Anyway, to clarify, I'm not against getting Watson as he is big, strong and would be worth a shot. I just don't want to be throwing 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounders at somebody who is, at best, 'worth a shot'...

 

[The King!]

I hope it's ok to butt in here, but I was doing a bit of analysis of defensive efficiency for teams once they concede an inside 50. I know it's only round 3 but here you go anyway.

I looked at how good Freo and Hawthorn have been so far in restricting scoring shots once the ball gets into their defensive 50 and comparing that to North. I then looked at Sydney to determine their effectiveness because we play you guys this weekend.

Ave Inside 50's conceded:
Freo: 49
Haw: 50
NM: 53
Syd: 51.3
So, not much in it really. However, when you look at the average scoring shots conceded per game things look a wee bit different.

Ave scoring shots against:
Freo: 22.33
Haw: 25.66
NM: 21.66
Syd: 29.66

In short Freo are conceding a scoring shot 45.57% of the time the opposition get the ball inside 50, Hawks 51.3%, North 40.88% and Sydney 57.81%. I don't think that this comes down solely to the quality of personnel in the D50 but other factors such as quality of entry, pressure on the ball carrier etc need to be taken into account also. You guys will clearly have a much better idea of what this means, if anything, for the longer term, but as numbers it's pretty interesting stuff.

thanks for that, will be interesting to see at say round 8 or so where we sit.

As an opposition fan when you think of the swans of say the premiership year did you view then as one of if not the best defensive side? and if so without even checking stats do you have the few since? or what do you see as our strength as an opposition fan, if you want to answer of course you may not care

 

[Bonz]

And the deal didn't get done because WC had a need for him and weren't prepared to let him go for what the (probably fair) trade value was for him and StKilda weren't prepared to pay a 'late first rounder' which is what was suggested for Watson. It sort of proves my point...

Anyway, to clarify, I'm not against getting Watson as he is big, strong and would be worth a shot. I just don't want to be throwing 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounders at somebody who is, at best, 'worth a shot'...

I can't see Carlton giving him up for anything less than a second selection though, they don't exactly have a heap of key position defenders coming through sadly.

I would love for us to look at him, but a second round selection would probably be the starting point in trade negotiations unless the player is out of contract.

 

[GarnerSmash]

thanks for that, will be interesting to see at say round 8 or so where we sit.

As an opposition fan when you think of the swans of say the premiership year did you view then as one of if not the best defensive side? and if so without even checking stats do you have the few since? or what do you see as our strength as an opposition fan, if you want to answer of course you may not care

My perception of the Swans over the last few years has been of a defensively accountable group who dictate games via dominating the contested ball and who restrict teams efficiency in attack by applying smothering pressure, thus providing your defenders with an easier task than it otherwise could be. That defensive aspect was rounded off by an attack that could hurt from various avenues, specifically with midfielders hitting the scoreboard and proved repeatedly to be a dominant all round game style, but certainly based on defensive application.

Recently I haven't noticed too much of a difference to that. Maybe a bit more of an attempt to generate drive from rebound rather than dominating on ball perhaps? This year I have only seen the Pies game this year and there seemed to be a spark missing around the contest. They found too much space which was weird to watch.