Whats a greater threat to Australia Climate Change deniers or terrorists?

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Contra Mundum

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You've jumped the shark Contra. You missed Holocaust Denial.

we find that the continued warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 -2012, is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level.​

http://www.academia.edu/4210419/Can_climate_models_explain_the_recent_stagnation_in_global_warming

If you say so - why trust those infernal socialist world government loving scientist. The rate has not slowed consistently with the modelling so what!
 
That very article does not do anything to dispel the generally accepted scientific consensus - that the world is warming, overall. It is simply a journal article that states more precise modelling is preferred. Nothing in the article suggests that climate change isn't occurring.

We do not wish to suggest which of the three possible explanations is the most probable, leaving this for others to decide. Quite possibly, all three factors contribute to some extent. But we hope that the need to understand the origin of the recent stagnation in global warming will accelerate efforts to achieve a more reliable simulation of climate variability on decadal time scales, and the ability to disentangle the relative contributions of forced (deterministic) and internal (stochastic) variability.

It's the inherent unpredictability of modelling predicted temperature increases in a system where any number of factors on a local, regional or global scale can ripple through the whole system.
 

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Lester Burnham

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If you say so - why trust those infernal socialist world government loving scientist. The rate has not slowed consistently with the modelling so what!

Didn't you request 'some peer reviewed journal articles on these failures rather than the bullshit opinions of non-experts'? If you now ignore it that makes you the denialist.

It is important when the observed temperatures do not match those predicted by the models. It might be that the hypothesis is wrong. To not consider this possibility is anti-science.

Another dereliction of the scientific method is when model predictions are quoted as 'evidence' of warming.
 

Contra Mundum

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Didn't you request 'some peer reviewed journal articles on these failures rather than the bullshit opinions of non-experts'? If you now ignore it that makes you the denialist.

It is important when the observed temperatures do not match those predicted by the models. It might be that the hypothesis is wrong. To not consider this possibility is anti-science.

Another dereliction of the scientific method is when model predictions are quoted as 'evidence' of warming.

Does econometric modelling have validity? From where did you get these facts
 
Stop repeating this so called science lie. It has been found out to be false. The planet hasn't warmed since 1998. Your mates like Al Gore lied. The IPCC fudged the figures. They can't even predict the weather. Your avatar really is quite appropriate.
I'm agreeing with you.
Almost all of the worlds scientists and governments are wrong. Whilst you are demonstrating to us all how clever you are by mindlessly believing what Lord Munkton and Andrew Bolt have told you.

You're not a foolish victim of a con aimed at tricking mental pygmies. Don't believe anyone who tells you that you are.
 

Portsmeff

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Ive posted this somewhere else before, but I just don't know who to believe on this issue:

1. the opinions of senile right wing suburbanites who's only research into the subject is from reading News Ltd press, or
2. 95% of scientists who have spent years of research and education on the subject

tough decision, really tough
 
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Madmug throws a good angle into the climate change debate through his insurance risk assessment observation. But I disagree with him on terrorism (sorry dude I still do appreciate your well reasoned post). According to the 2011 census Muslims represent 2.3% of the population and lets not beat around the bush.. 100% of the terrorism problem in Australia comes from that group. Fact is, Tony Abbott is right to validate middle Australia’s concerns with Islamist extremism and the integration (or lack of) of certain cultures. The left can squeal all they like, but the quiet majority have just nodded in agreement with the PM. Islam needs to reform not everyone else.


Yes of course the Terrorist threat is largely based in the Muslim community. I'm saying its vital to work with the moderate majority. Disaffected youth, for whatever reason, will remain the area of major concern. It certainly wont reduce while their community feels isolated & vilified. Its easy to be dumb & beat ones chest & threaten & wave the flag of 'Team Australia'.

Like the war on drugs, its not a bloody war! Its a social issue with massive consequences if we fail.

The ONLY 'cure' is to support the Moderate Muslims in their communities, be inclusive with them, show we care about them being part of a successful multicultural society. Thats exactley how our police system works. It only functions because we trust them & we work with them. Its that simple. Community policing is the most successful form of policing.

Ive worked with Muslims in the medical system. Low & behold they were just like us!. Very intelligent, love fun & good food & Australia & their own families & kids doing well & school & playing sport & being safe in this great country.

So I've no doubt that it is that Moderate group that will give us our best chance at protection. Not cameras, or mass police actions, secret squirrel stuff & threats & broad, ill directed criticism, etc, etc.

I can guarantee we wont have to spend nearly as much on 'security' if we demonstrate support, show confidence in the community leaders, & work to make them all feel part of this great multicultural nation.

Its the old 'ounce of prevention versus the pound of cure' stuff.

The alternative option is to make a bloody big rod for our own backs. That is exactly what Abbott is doing with his current hairy chested approach. The French have found this out after the Muslim youth riots starting in 2005 & the latest Charlie Hebdo attacks. It will take a long time to re socialise the Muslim community after decades of neglect.

Honestly, do we really need to make the same dumb mistakes?
 

Contra Mundum

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That very article does not do anything to dispel the generally accepted scientific consensus - that the world is warming, overall. It is simply a journal article that states more precise modelling is preferred. Nothing in the article suggests that climate change isn't occurring.



It's the inherent unpredictability of modelling predicted temperature increases in a system where any number of factors on a local, regional or global scale can ripple through the whole system.

The juries still out (on the ethics on anthropomorphic climate change deniers): http://www.salon.com/2015/02/24/cli..._spawns_new_push_to_uncover_fossil_fuel_ties/
 

Contra Mundum

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Stop repeating this so called science lie. It has been found out to be false. The planet hasn't warmed since 1998. Your mates like Al Gore lied. The IPCC fudged the figures. They can't even predict the weather. Your avatar really is quite appropriate.

Lebbo it's endearing that you even use Andy Bolt's phrases "the so called science lie" - its cute.
 

Pessimistic

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Yes of course the Terrorist threat is largely based in the Muslim community. I'm saying its vital to work with the moderate majority. Disaffected youth, for whatever reason, will remain the area of major concern. It certainly wont reduce while their community feels isolated & vilified. Its easy to be dumb & beat ones chest & threaten & wave the flag of 'Team Australia'.

Like the war on drugs, its not a bloody war! Its a social issue with massive consequences if we fail.

The ONLY 'cure' is to support the Moderate Muslims in their communities, be inclusive with them, show we care about them being part of a successful multicultural society. Thats exactley how our police system works. It only functions because we trust them & we work with them. Its that simple. Community policing is the most successful form of policing.

Ive worked with Muslims in the medical system. Low & behold they were just like us!. Very intelligent, love fun & good food & Australia & their own families & kids doing well & school & playing sport & being safe in this great country.

So I've no doubt that it is that Moderate group that will give us our best chance at protection. Not cameras, or mass police actions, secret squirrel stuff & threats & broad, ill directed criticism, etc, etc.

I can guarantee we wont have to spend nearly as much on 'security' if we demonstrate support, show confidence in the community leaders, & work to make them all feel part of this great multicultural nation.

Its the old 'ounce of prevention versus the pound of cure' stuff.

The alternative option is to make a bloody big rod for our own backs. That is exactly what Abbott is doing with his current hairy chested approach. The French have found this out after the Muslim youth riots starting in 2005 & the latest Charlie Hebdo attacks. It will take a long time to re socialise the Muslim community after decades of neglect.

Honestly, do we really need to make the same dumb mistakes?

Cant like enough. You only have to look at todays herald sun report on train tunnel rats to see what the bravado of youth can produce. Trains cancelled, police occupied looking after them instead of other stuff. Hospitals patching up the ones which dont get themselves killed

Its a shame we dont have some disused tunnels somewhere we can convert int special prisons for them to be kept in. No doubt theyd be spruiking the inhumane conditions they are forced to be in
 

Long Live HFC

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That very article does not do anything to dispel the generally accepted scientific consensus - that the world is warming, overall. It is simply a journal article that states more precise modelling is preferred. Nothing in the article suggests that climate change isn't occurring.



It's the inherent unpredictability of modelling predicted temperature increases in a system where any number of factors on a local, regional or global scale can ripple through the whole system.

these idiots won't understand any of that. their opinions are not informed by evidence, but by partisan (political) bias. you're wasting your time.
 

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Ive posted this somewhere else before, but I just don't know who to believe on this issue:

1. the opinions of senile right wing suburbanites who's only research into the subject is from reading News Ltd press, or
2. 95% of scientists who have spent years of research and education on the subject

tough decision, really tough

Tell me, where did you find this figure of "95% of scientists who have spent years of research and education on the subject" who seemingly agree?
 
That very article does not do anything to dispel the generally accepted scientific consensus - that the world is warming, overall. It is simply a journal article that states more precise modelling is preferred. Nothing in the article suggests that climate change isn't occurring.

Any suggestion on why it's occurring?

After all, the world has been warming (generally) since the end of the little ice age.

It's the inherent unpredictability of modelling predicted temperature increases in a system where any number of factors on a local, regional or global scale can ripple through the whole system.

2 things need to be done to regain credibility.

1. Stop idiots making massive, unsupportable claims (like 100m sea level rises, droughts 'forever', every extreme weather event being due to warming, etc). If some 'facts' get made up to 'sell the argument', why should anyone believe the rest of the 'facts'?

2. Open up the models, show the working. This will both allow the scientists to collectively develop a more accurate model by learning from each other and using the best of each, and reduce the skepticism that naturally occurs after it's revealed that the models that do get opened up (due to hacking...) are completely stuffed and have a pre-defined 'prediction' (e.g. the 'hockey stick' ).
 

Long Live HFC

Norm Smith Medallist
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the models that do get opened up (due to hacking...) are completely stuffed and have a pre-defined 'prediction' (e.g. the 'hockey stick' ).

the fact you believe this crap just shows that no amount of information will ever be good enough for you, because you're inherently dishonest when trying to understand it anyway. waste. of. time.
 
the fact you believe this crap just shows that no amount of information will ever be good enough for you, because you're inherently dishonest when trying to understand it anyway. waste. of. time.

What part of what I said was untrue?

If you can't dispute the argument with verifiable facts, why should I believe you?
 
that the hockey stick had a pre-defined prediction. that's just a denier myth that you believe because you want to.



as above. you don't understand facts.

So, you have no facts to back up your assertion.
 

Long Live HFC

Norm Smith Medallist
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So, you have no facts to back up your assertion.

how about the dozen or so temperature reconstructions that support mann's original one? would that be enough for you? lol, of course not. because it's not a science issue for you, it's political. and you believe any bullshit you find online as long as it confirms your biases. *yawns*
 
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The juries still out (on the ethics on anthropomorphic climate change deniers): http://www.salon.com/2015/02/24/cli..._spawns_new_push_to_uncover_fossil_fuel_ties/

You wouldnt have expected anything else would you?

Its a bit like Keating's oft quote line about betting on horses. 'always back the one called self interest, at least you know its trying!!":p


Lebbo it's endearing that you even use Andy Bolt's phrases "the so called science lie" - its cute.

At least we now know who writes his stuff:rolleyes:
 
how about the dozen or so temperature reconstructions that support mann's original one? would that be enough for you? lol, of course not. because it's not a science issue for you, it's political. and you believe any bullshit you find online as long as it confirms your biases. *yawns*

You realise the bolded could be directed at you...
 

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