Oppo Camp Where Are the Swans At? (Serious Question)

Where are Sydney At?


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Todman

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I would love for Adam "Sniper" Goodes to play on. As a footballer he is finished. He cameo's in the GF were too brief. Yes he kicked 2 goals but what else did he do ? He tried to whack Shiels in the 2nd but failed.

I reckon the "Aust of the Year" wants a political career. Probably with the ALP and a safe seat with that. By playing on in 2015 it will give him the high public profile he will need into the run up to the 2016 Federal Election.
 

Hawk Dork

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I would love for Adam "Sniper" Goodes to play on. As a footballer he is finished. He cameo's in the GF were too brief. Yes he kicked 2 goals but what else did he do ? He tried to whack Shiels in the 2nd but failed.

I reckon the "Aust of the Year" wants a political career. Probably with the ALP and a safe seat with that. By playing on in 2015 it will give him the high public profile he will need into the run up to the 2016 Federal Election.
Governments dont usually give AOTY to anyone of the other political persuasion.
Its too risky giving them a platform, a microphone and credibility and have them bite you on the bum.
He would have been vetted.
Re his footballing on the weekend under regular umpiring
he would have got pinged for throwing the ball ,push in the back and front on charge
about 3 goals worth so he earned his keep.
 

Todman

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One more thing I would like to add that there is an unknown, but potentially very significant, effect of having two players take up so much of the salary cap. It has already been speculated in the media that some of the laziness of the rank and file players was caused by a subconscious feeling that they didn't have to work so hard because Buddy and Tippet would win it for them. Whether or not that's reality or just imagination is impossible to say, but it creates two classes of player and certainly works against the 'bloodz' culture they've been trying to develop over recent years.

Did the Swans fall into the Buddy trap on Saturday? Probably, when things were going from bad to worst, lets bomb it to Buddy. How many games did Hawthorn lose when thay wanted buddy to win it for us? Plenty. We lost the 2012 Grannie because we wanted Buddy to win it for us. Buddy is not in the same league as Huddo or Dunstall.

Hawthorn failed in 2009 because of laziness, and a game plan past its useby date. They changed their gameplan but it took a Kennett blast to make them play hard again. Once they started working hard again they won games.
 
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Todman

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Governments dont usually give AOTY to anyone of the other political persuasion.
Its too risky giving them a platform, a microphone and credibility and have them bite you on the bum.
He would have been vetted.

Tim Flannery got AOTY under John Howard. Flannery continues to predict climate disasters, none have happened.
 

MrFujiMoto

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I think you can go back to recruiting. They stuffed up getting Tippett and Buddy. The mistake is fair enough given they did not know Buddy was available when they got Tippett (maybe they did) but they do not need both of them. 1/ Tippett is not that good - not $800k a year good. 2/ They both want the goal square - the Hawks had exactly the same problem with Rough and Buddy and Tippett is not half the player Rough is. Buddy might get considered a CHF but that position is basically dead. You want Buddy inside 50 taking marks and kicking goals from ground balls. 3/ Having both is the reason Mumford is gone - again Mumford is better than Tippett (and cheaper) and fills a direct need, and 4/ Getting both has completely destroyed Reid's development.

Their list is imbalanced. They are paying 4 key forwards about $2.5-3m a year and leaking required players everywhere else.

They were also immensely fortunate that a handful of first year players stood up this year. That saved them despite them not turning up on Saturday. But it also creates problems. At some point the Swans have to recontract these guys. They have created a list disaster. It has not completely unravelled yet but it will.

And they have to resign the gun midfielders who are on unders as well. And they have to do all of this while Buddy's salary is going north fast and CoLA is getting phased down.

And that is what makes Saturday such a disaster for them. They need to make hay while the sun shines and they didn't.
That's what I was getting at, they have lost depth and players from a variety of places around the ground to accommodate 2 monster forwards and a 3rd tall that doesn't know if he is Arthur or Martha at the minute.

You left out Lamb and Malcieski (if he goes) from your list of outs due to the 2 big contracts and they are very important parts in the premiership jigsaw puzzle for Sydney. Lamb is depth and Mal is their best user of the ball.
 
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That's what I was getting at, they have lost depth and players from a variety of places around the ground to accommodate 2 monster forwards and a 3rd tall that doesn't know if he is Arthur or Martha at the minute.

You left out Lamb and Malcieski (if he goes) from your list of outs due to the 2 big contracts and they are very important parts in the premiership jigsaw puzzle for Sydney. Lamb is depth and Mal is their best user of the ball.

If Malceski goes they cannot win it next year would be my call.
 

Wandering Hawk

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I've enjoyed people putting out best 18s and best 22s, but I'm more concerned with the depth in each position. You need 2-3 hard done by players who are almost good enough to replace the inevitable injuries.

Hawks reserve depth/injuries to supplement gf list:
Forwards - mids and rucks only. O'Brien.
Mids - Sewell, Hartung, Hallahan, Ross, Simpkin, (Anderson)
Def - Litherland, Schoenmakers, Cheney, (Whitecross) , Wanganeen
Ruck - Ceglar, Lowden

Where is the $yds depth?
 
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I think they are like us in ways, have some aging stars who need replacing. Who would have guessed that Cegs, Langers, Hartung and Litherland would play so well this year and that Woody would win the Liston putting him in contention to make the transition next year.

For mine they need a back-up to Pike. I always felt Tippett was a risk as he's a very average ruck for a 200cm guy.

They also need to find a key defender. I think Reid should be converted.

Malceski will be very hard to replace. I hope he goes.

I also feel their lack of speed doesn't get exposed on the SCG like it does on the G. They need Towers to get into the team.
 

Badesumofu

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We did a fantastic job of exposing their weaknesses in the GF. I am confident that they will see this, and attend to them. They need to find some role-players to fill the obvious holes - they need someone like Puopolo to create more defensive pressure in their forward line to replace Goodes. On first watching I had Goodes as one of the few (4) that could hold his head high. On repeat watching I noticed more how little he chased, how little pressure he put on his direct opponent when he did not have the ball. I now think that his deficiencies cost them more than his two goals were worth. So he's out. I now consider Franklin, Kennedy and Malcheski the only ones who get a pass for their effort on the day, two ex-Hawks and a guy who will probably be pushed out of the squad to accommodate one of the other two.

The suggestion that they should go after Garlett from Carlton is probably spot on, he is the kind of player they need up forward. I also think they need better outside run. Rohan might improve but I've never seen anything from him to suggest that he isn't a potato. Players do have moments where they just click though, and he does have pace and some ability to find the ball. It would be big for the Swans if he could step up.

Ruckwise, I mean, I always thought of Pyke as being very handy around the ground but then he was playing more as a second ruck behind that big bloke who used to play for Geelong and also got squeezed out by Buddy. Genuinely gone blank on his name, not trying to be disrespectful. Perhaps they need to play Derickx more. He did look good when he played.

Defence is their other problem, and by that I mean their back 6. The solution is probably to just stop it getting down there so often since they won't get Frawley. They really need to keep Malcheski somehow, but I don't know if they can.

Their mids, despite what we saw on Saturday, are quality. I don't know how we managed to make so many great players look so ordinary, but I'd expect them to bounce back next year. Most sides won't be able to exploit their weaknesses the way we did, and we can't even do it when we have key players out as we say earlier this year. So they are definite contenders, and they will have the burning hunger that has driven our squad over the last two years. If they are favourites, though, I'd be more inclined to lay them than back them if I were a punter.
 

RoyalRoughead

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I agree with all the analysis so far. However, we should keep this all in perspective. I don't think the problem is with the $wans' ability to plug a hole, I think their problem will be plugging a hole while being able to defeat a more experienced Port Adelaide. Would be great if the $wans were knocked off by another side that is written off by the "experts".

Also keep note of the $wans' depth. A couple of injuries to their players and their mettle will actually be tested. Earlier this year some of their players weren't ready to play and look at them, they lost to GWS.
 
Only 5 teams play twice...

Play each team once... 17 games
Play 5 teams second time... 5 games
22.

We won't get Essendon on a repeat.
Sydney will get Collingwood twice (prob over North) and they won't get Melbourne. If they get Melbourne and GWS twice then there needs to be a royal commission.

They got St Kilda and GWS twice last year after winning the flag...
 
Looking at the Swans for 2015-2018
Tall Forwards - solid
Inside Mids - solid

There are holes everywhere else though
Small forwards - immediate problem
Outside Mids - Need a two way runner - Neither Jetta nor Rohan do this
Rucks - Immediately need a Ruck to help Pyke. Also need to replace Pyke rather soon as he is 31
Tall Backs - Fine now, but Richards needs replacing soon
Small Backs - Shaw & Malceski both need replacing soon (Malceski immediately if he leaves)

The Swans have 3 gun kids coming through - Heeney next year, Dunkley the following year & there's another one there too

The problem for the Swans is that they have multiple positions that need fixing/replacing

I'm confident that they'll be able to plug all those holes to ensure they stay in the top 8 for the next few years, the question is whether they can do it well enough to score a premiership in the next 4 years. I think they'd be rather disappointed if they don't win a flag in the first 5 years of having Buddy. I can't imagine he'll be any good to them after the 5th year...
 

MC Bad Genius

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Good-o. I just think it's really interesting to read outsiders' perspective on the squad, particularly from a club that only a few days ago embarrassed us in the most humiliating way. It was a pathetic effort and extremely hard to stomach, especially since the club has prided itself on being renowned for their hard-working ways.

The deficiencies that you've pointed out are ones that are mirrored by the majority of us on the Swans board:

- ageing defenders, particularly key defenders
- unbalanced forward line
- a deficiency in the ruck

I think a key move is to get Reid out of the forward line and possibly encouraging Goodes to retire, as neither of them are really able to put much defensive pressure on. McGlynn has had a great year moving more into a midfield role, but for the sake of the team he might need to be put back into the forward 50. Brandon Jack could be the other option as a small forward with pace that can crumb the packs, but he'd need to bulk up a little to hold the ball in there.

There is a lot of talk on the Swans board about Reid being groomed for a KPD post, but I'm not super-convinced that he'll be up to it straight off the bat. Ted Richards is getting burnt on the lead more and more often and while Grundy is pretty solid, he has the odd brain-fade (why would you punch it back into the corridor?!?!?). Malceski will be a massive loss if he leaves, but I imagine that McVeigh will slot in there well like he did earlier in the year. Gary Rohan had a stinker on Saturday, but has been improving steadily throughout the year. If someone just goes for kick-to-kick with him every day throughout Summer, he could be the rebounder that we're desperate for.

And as much as I love Mike Pyke, he has struggled being the only ruckman in the team. He'll take a couple of marks down back and might get forward for a goal-scoring opportunity every now and again. He's competitive in the middle, but most of his ruckwork is negating and doesn't really give an advantage to our midfielders. The one-ruckman policy just doesn't seem to work so well with him.

The strangest thing though is that none of those deficiencies were the real reason we were so horrible in the Grand Final. Our much-vaunted midfield just weren't up to it. Or they just didn't turn up. Constantly out-numbered at the contest and muscled and bustled off the ball. Whether they can work out how to turn the tables when everything is going so wrong will probably be more important than any of those other areas to work on really. Tom Mitchell has to be put in the side and left in there regardless of anything else. No more "don't change a winning team" crap. He is best 22, no ifs and/or buts.

I've obviously got a more rosy outlook on our developing talents, so I'm sure we'll still be a big threat for the premiership next year!
 

Bikefreak

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Ten or so points of difference can be worked on, ten or so goals NOWAY!! They're in trouble especially if oppo clubs stop being so star struck before the first bounce against them and hit them at the contests and then have the balls to run,run,run!! Goal kicking Mids are very important against them as well. They didn't have serious injury issues and that may catch up as well. Make no mistake, the Hawks spoilt their plans as Shaw and Goodes most likely retiring after a GF win and making Malceskis imminent move all the more easier but we've completely caught them out! I was laughed at over the Swans board last week when I mentioned 'how can people be so dismissive of Hawthorns Midfield that has Mitch, Hodge, Burgs, Lewy, Hill,Smith, Shiels and co..?' Well they can sit and cop it sweet now cuz aside a few of them most of them deserve all the crap thrown towards them.

I think this point was as helpful to them as their soft draw and it hasn't been spoken about much.
 

Bikefreak

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I think you can go back to recruiting. They stuffed up getting Tippett and Buddy. The mistake is fair enough given they did not know Buddy was available when they got Tippett (maybe they did) but they do not need both of them. 1/ Tippett is not that good - not $800k a year good. 2/ They both want the goal square - the Hawks had exactly the same problem with Rough and Buddy and Tippett is not half the player Rough is. Buddy might get considered a CHF but that position is basically dead. You want Buddy inside 50 taking marks and kicking goals from ground balls. 3/ Having both is the reason Mumford is gone - again Mumford is better than Tippett (and cheaper) and fills a direct need, and 4/ Getting both has completely destroyed Reid's development.

Their list is imbalanced. They are paying 4 key forwards about $2.5-3m a year and leaking required players everywhere else.

They were also immensely fortunate that a handful of first year players stood up this year. That saved them despite them not turning up on Saturday. But it also creates problems. At some point the Swans have to recontract these guys. They have created a list disaster. It has not completely unravelled yet but it will.

And they have to resign the gun midfielders who are on unders as well. And they have to do all of this while Buddy's salary is going north fast and CoLA is getting phased down.

And that is what makes Saturday such a disaster for them. They need to make hay while the sun shines and they didn't.

What he said.

Right on the money.
 
Good-o. I just think it's really interesting to read outsiders' perspective on the squad, particularly from a club that only a few days ago embarrassed us in the most humiliating way. It was a pathetic effort and extremely hard to stomach, especially since the club has prided itself on being renowned for their hard-working ways.

The deficiencies that you've pointed out are ones that are mirrored by the majority of us on the Swans board:

- ageing defenders, particularly key defenders
- unbalanced forward line
- a deficiency in the ruck

I think a key move is to get Reid out of the forward line and possibly encouraging Goodes to retire, as neither of them are really able to put much defensive pressure on. McGlynn has had a great year moving more into a midfield role, but for the sake of the team he might need to be put back into the forward 50. Brandon Jack could be the other option as a small forward with pace that can crumb the packs, but he'd need to bulk up a little to hold the ball in there.

There is a lot of talk on the Swans board about Reid being groomed for a KPD post, but I'm not super-convinced that he'll be up to it straight off the bat. Ted Richards is getting burnt on the lead more and more often and while Grundy is pretty solid, he has the odd brain-fade (why would you punch it back into the corridor?!?!?). Malceski will be a massive loss if he leaves, but I imagine that McVeigh will slot in there well like he did earlier in the year. Gary Rohan had a stinker on Saturday, but has been improving steadily throughout the year. If someone just goes for kick-to-kick with him every day throughout Summer, he could be the rebounder that we're desperate for.

And as much as I love Mike Pyke, he has struggled being the only ruckman in the team. He'll take a couple of marks down back and might get forward for a goal-scoring opportunity every now and again. He's competitive in the middle, but most of his ruckwork is negating and doesn't really give an advantage to our midfielders. The one-ruckman policy just doesn't seem to work so well with him.

The strangest thing though is that none of those deficiencies were the real reason we were so horrible in the Grand Final. Our much-vaunted midfield just weren't up to it. Or they just didn't turn up. Constantly out-numbered at the contest and muscled and bustled off the ball. Whether they can work out how to turn the tables when everything is going so wrong will probably be more important than any of those other areas to work on really. Tom Mitchell has to be put in the side and left in there regardless of anything else. No more "don't change a winning team" crap. He is best 22, no ifs and/or buts.

I've obviously got a more rosy outlook on our developing talents, so I'm sure we'll still be a big threat for the premiership next year!

So, honest question without trolling, who are your developing talents both back & forward?
 

MC Bad Genius

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So, honest question without trolling, who are your developing talents both back & forward?

That's a question better answered by some of the Swans posters that get out to the Reserves matches. The more I think about it, the less I can think of! But I've been pleasantly surprised by the calibre of players that have broken through to the seniors over the last couple of years (Lloyd, Cunningham, Membrey, Mitchell), even if only for a few games. I get the feeling that some of them might go to other clubs this year or next though in a trade for some help down back for Richards and Grundy. Having Alex Johnson back (fingers crossed for the poor bastard) and possibly Sam Reid moving back there will be good though. They've both still got plenty of time left ... although Reid's hourglass at Sydney might be pretty close to empty.
 

RW

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So, honest question without trolling, who are your developing talents both back & forward?

Forward:
Tim Membrey, if he stays, which he might not now that Goodes has announced he's going on. Would like him to stay.
Dean Towers played a few senior games this year but I'm a long way from being convinced, will probably be trade bait.

Back:
Xavier Richards and Aliir Aliir have been progressing well but not ready for AFL yet. Alex Johnson was our biggest hope but he needs yet another knee reco. :( Harry Marsh plays a bit in defence I believe in the reserves but he's not a KPD, only 188cm so more of a flanker I think.

Some on our board might argue Sam Reid is still developing, it seems to be taking him bloody forever :p

We have three developing ruckmen though, Sam Naismith, Toby Nankervis and Patrick Mitchell (US rookie).
 
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Forward:
Tim Membrey, if he stays, which he might not now that Goodes has announced he's going on. Would like him to stay.
Dean Towers played a few senior games this year but I'm a long way from being convinced, will probably be trade bait.

Back:
Xavier Richards and Aliir Aliir have been progressing well but not ready for AFL yet. Alex Johnson was our biggest hope but he needs yet another knee reco. :( Harry Marsh plays a bit in defence I believe in the reserves but he's not a KPD, only 188cm so more of a flanker I think.

Some on our board might argue Sam Reid is still developing, it seems to be taking him bloody forever :p

We have three developing ruckmen though, Sam Naismith, Toby Nankervis and Patrick Mitchell (US rookie).
I am not familiar with your reserves but when I went through your list it appeared about a third of them are HFF types capable of playing midfield or forward (on paper). Assuming you have the talent on board (Membrey, Jack and Towers) then it should be easy enough to restructure your forward line but that means Reid and Goodes have to go. I actually can't believe Goodes is playing on. I can imagine how hard it is to tap a club legend on the shoulder but his time has come.

When I looked at your young defenders. . . well there is not a lot there. I expect you to try and bring in some more running defenders and blind freddy can see you need a new KPD or two. I think McVeigh is a stop gap for one season (maybe two if Shaw goes). With good trading you can fix those holes but it isn't easy. Took Hawthorn several years of trying to bring Lake over and there are not exactly a whole heap of KPDs looking to move each season. IF you had the cash I'd throw it at Carlisle and hope to dislodge him from Essendon. With the weight of Buddy and Tippett on the cap I have doubts you will be able to address the KPD easily which is why I have a pessimistic view of your prospects. At least Tippett's deal will expire at the end of 2016 but is that too late to do anything about the structural issues? If Reid comes good down back then I think you can probably restructure enough to have another tilt with your quality midfield and forward line. A lot of pressure on a player that has yet to stand up.
 
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