Strategy Where Will Our Goals Come From In 2015 ?

[Weiterbot23]

We lost to GWS, Melbourne and Brisbane. I'm not sure why playing them twice is necessarily a good thing.

(We should beat Footscary and St Kilda though)

How come we got st kilda twice if we finished top 6 last year?

Hopefully we don't get GWS twice, I reckon they will be good pretty soon, Tom Scully is on 1mil and not even in their best 25 FFS!

 

[gbatman]

This is the big question, our forward line was a big problem last year. We'd dominate play and put very little score on the board. The ball came out of our forward line far too easily. Our forwards didn't apply much forward pressure and didn't setup properly at the fall of the ball when it was kicked in allowing opposition to basically walk it out.

Henderson - Looks our most likely target, hasn't got the good hands of the elite forwards and isn't overly strong in the body but is quick, a good runner and will lead hard and work hard to get himself in space. Not a bad kick too. Could kick 40 or 50 goals.

Jones - Much like Henderson, hands are good without being top level. He is fast and agile and throws himself at the ball in the air taking out any who get in the way and has a preference to take it on the chest, a bit similar to Silvagni in his marking approach. Kicking seems ok without being outstanding. Still a young player who lacks a little size and strength for this role, could kick 30 or 40 goals next year.

Casboult - big strong guy who lacks a bit of mobility and apart from a poor form run at the end of last year has generally really good hands. Can see him playing for forward/ruck role. Kicking is a big issue. Possibly kick 20 goals next season.

Watson - A vast unknown. Hands seem fairly good, body strength seems alright. His reach makes him easy to spoil but he finds the footy in different ways to a lot of talls. Seems to know where to lead and is a good long kick. Might be able to kick anywhere between 20 and 40 goals, a real unknown.

Menzel - looks a great medium sized forward will be heavily marked, can see him kicking around 35 goals next season.

Walker - If he plays forward it may not be full forward like he has previously, perhaps more half forward. Usually a good kick and can get it. could kick 30 add in this role.

Thomas - had a poor season last year and struggled to fit into a new team on the back of poor fitness. Should go a lot better this season and if he plays predominantly forward could kick 20+ goals. Kicking will need to improve.

Murphy, Gibbs, Judd, Yarran, Docherty, Everitt and Bell tend to kick goals playing midfield and will kick a few. Expect anywhere from 10 - 30 goals from these guys. Murphy should kick a lot more goals, needs to work on his set shots, genuine goal kicker.


Last year we kicked 276 (12.5/game) goals which put us in the lower end of the middle of the group. Hawthorn lead the league with 418 (19/game) goals followed by Port on 362 (16/game) and Sydney on 351 (15/game). So Basically we need to find another 100 goals to be competitive. I think if things go well we'll kick 280-300 goals next season. We need to kick 330+ goals to make finals and finish in the high 300's or in the 400's to be competative for the top 4/flag.

Fingers crossed Henderson has a good season, Jones matures and Menzel improves. Would be great if Watson makes a good full forward. We're desperate for a good small forward. Would be great to have the luxury of playing Murphy forward more. Will have to hit the free agency next year and try and get Dangerfield who is exactly the mid we are after and kicks goals and would release Murphy forward. If we could somehow pick one of these quick forward/mid types that Port have plenty of then that's part of the job done too. A gun tall forward would be good but you have to get them in the draft, too expensive otherwise.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

This is the big question, our forward line was a big problem last year. We'd dominate play and put very little score on the board. The ball came out of our forward line far too easily. Our forwards didn't apply much forward pressure and didn't setup properly at the fall of the ball when it was kicked in allowing opposition to basically walk it out.

Henderson - Looks our most likely target, hasn't got the good hands of the elite forwards and isn't overly strong in the body but is quick, a good runner and will lead hard and work hard to get himself in space. Not a bad kick too. Could kick 40 or 50 goals.

Jones - Much like Henderson, hands are good without being top level. He is fast and agile and throws himself at the ball in the air taking out any who get in the way and has a preference to take it on the chest, a bit similar to Silvagni in his marking approach. Kicking seems ok without being outstanding. Still a young player who lacks a little size and strength for this role, could kick 30 or 40 goals next year.

Casboult - big strong guy who lacks a bit of mobility and apart from a poor form run at the end of last year has generally really good hands. Can see him playing for forward/ruck role. Kicking is a big issue. Possibly kick 20 goals next season.

Watson - A vast unknown. Hands seem fairly good, body strength seems alright. His reach makes him easy to spoil but he finds the footy in different ways to a lot of talls. Seems to know where to lead and is a good long kick. Might be able to kick anywhere between 20 and 40 goals, a real unknown.

Menzel - looks a great medium sized forward will be heavily marked, can see him kicking around 35 goals next season.

Walker - If he plays forward it may not be full forward like he has previously, perhaps more half forward. Usually a good kick and can get it. could kick 30 add in this role.

Thomas - had a poor season last year and struggled to fit into a new team on the back of poor fitness. Should go a lot better this season and if he plays predominantly forward could kick 20+ goals. Kicking will need to improve.

Murphy, Gibbs, Judd, Yarran, Docherty, Everitt and Bell tend to kick goals playing midfield and will kick a few. Expect anywhere from 10 - 30 goals from these guys. Murphy should kick a lot more goals, needs to work on his set shots, genuine goal kicker.


Last year we kicked 276 (12.5/game) goals which put us in the lower end of the middle of the group. Hawthorn lead the league with 418 (19/game) goals followed by Port on 362 (16/game) and Sydney on 351 (15/game). So Basically we need to find another 100 goals to be competitive. I think if things go well we'll kick 280-300 goals next season. We need to kick 330+ goals to make finals and finish in the high 300's or in the 400's to be competative for the top 4/flag.

Fingers crossed Henderson has a good season, Jones matures and Menzel improves. Would be great if Watson makes a good full forward. We're desperate for a good small forward. Would be great to have the luxury of playing Murphy forward more. Will have to hit the free agency next year and try and get Dangerfield who is exactly the mid we are after and kicks goals and would release Murphy forward. If we could somehow pick one of these quick forward/mid types that Port have plenty of then that's part of the job done too. A gun tall forward would be good but you have to get them in the draft, too expensive otherwise.

Sure Carlton ranked low in goals per game, but ranked even lower in inside 50s per game. The forward line actually did a good job of generating scoring shots, the ball just wasn't down there often enough

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

This thread needs a heat map!!

 

[Weiterbot23]

With the emergence of Rowe as a capable defender plus the addition of Jaksch who is likely to be a defender, I feel we have more certainly up forward. Also losing Waite and gaining Jones gives us more reliability as Waite would miss games with suspension/ injury/ get dropped for sulking.

So with defenders set we likely won't have have to throw Henderson back, with Kreuzer hopefully fit we won't have to have Cas playing too much time in the Ruck. This should give us a pretty regular set up of Jones, Hendo and Cas who, if all have good pre seasons, could play their best footy next year. All 3 have shown glimpses of being really good players (Hendo has proven he's a gun down back but not quite up forward yet). I really think the club has the potential to work some pretty creative and dangerous set ups if these 3 gel well together.

I also think we could look to Menzel more often on the lead, he is a fantastic grab, but often looks frustrated when not used.

Not sure why everyone is saying Walker will move forward? Has Mick indicated that this will be the case?

 

[gbatman]

Sure Carlton ranked low in goals per game, but ranked even lower in inside 50s per game. The forward line actually did a good job of generating scoring shots, the ball just wasn't down there often enough

Yes, we were 5th last, I still remember games where we had dominant patches but scored lightly. It suggests our midfield wasn't going too well which it wasn't. 5th highest for goals against suggests too that not only is our midfield crap, but when it does go into our backline, it's not coming out and going up the other end. Also means it's going into our forward line and going down the other end a bit too much which I though was a problem at times last year.

Start winning more of the footy around the midfield and well better identify other problems. We are the lowest disposal team but also the lowest disposal against team, make of that what you will.

 

[Dramoth]

Fair comment but it also raises another concern, we won 7 games last year which means we will need to win at least 5 more in 2015 to seriously challenge for a spot in the eight.

If we are of the opinion that kicking 330 goals is beyond us, then how will we score heavily enough to win those extra games or are we going to pin our hopes on the defence holding the opposition for the best part ??

I am also counting on the umpires giving us a fair go... but you know that that just wont happen when its a close game against the likes of Geelong or Hawthorn.

 

[Moody Blue]

We certainly have lost our fair share of forwards. Fev, Eddie, Waite and now Garlett in the past few years. Casboult as a moving leading forward will be a huge target because of his strength and strong hands. Flat footed in the square he will get smashed as defenders will jump all over him. His kicking is another issue. Whoever coached him in his juniors should be horse whipped. Watson is an X factor as he looked a completely different player in the forward line at the end of the season. Jones will have a lot of expectations on him and I just hope he doesn't play one good game in 10 like he did at the Dogs. Judd should be played out of the forward line. He is a strong mark for his size, quick and has an excellent football brain. Why waste him in the middle? If he can play an Eddie style of game he could kick anywhere between 30-50 goals and who knows may then decide to hang around for another year. Henderson needs to improve from last season. He struggled at times with the closer attention he received. Finally conversion is the key. God how many easy goals did we miss last year? Improve conversion by 10% and it adds one or two goals a game.

 

[Dramoth]

We certainly have lost our fair share of forwards. Fev, Eddie, Waite and now Garlett in the past few years. Casboult as a moving leading forward will be a huge target because of his strength and strong hands. Flat footed in the square he will get smashed as defenders will jump all over him. His kicking is another issue. Whoever coached him in his juniors should be horse whipped. Watson is an X factor as he looked a completely different player in the forward line at the end of the season. Jones will have a lot of expectations on him and I just hope he doesn't play one good game in 10 like he did at the Dogs. Judd should be played out of the forward line. He is a strong mark for his size, quick and has an excellent football brain. Why waste him in the middle? If he can play an Eddie style of game he could kick anywhere between 30-50 goals and who knows may then decide to hang around for another year. Henderson needs to improve from last season. He struggled at times with the closer attention he received. Finally conversion is the key. God how many easy goals did we miss last year? Improve conversion by 10% and it adds one or two goals a game.

That is just so much bullshit... how does a guy go from kicking 41.14 in his TAC cup year to having one of the worst kicks at goal in the AFL? It wasnt his junior coach... I can tell you that for nothing. If you want to horse whip someone, try whoever was telling the forwards coach at the club for his first few years at the club what they had to train at.

Our forwards development during the Ratten era was all based around the small forwards running onto the ball or crumbing from the talls (who also couldnt mark the ball for s**t most of them). I am not just putting all the blame on Barker this time... Ratts and Skinny would have had to take some of the blame as well.

 

[Juddy's Playground]

Henderson is capable of kicking 50 goals a year playing full forward.
Casboult is capable of kicking 25 playing at CHF and pinch hitting in the ruck .
Jones as a third tall is capable of kicking 30 plus taking the third best defender every week .
Menzel is getting better every game expect 20 from him .
Walker capable of 20 plus
Thomas add another 20
But none of this will be possible if our delivery into the forward line dosen't improve which I'm optimistic and believe it will improve , we are heading in the right direction in two years we have seen a dramatic turnover with the playing list for the better added more depth and youth and still more to add with the ND and the PSD ( Tutt )

 

[thylacine60]

Excellent thread, mighty Effendi.........

 

[LordLucifer]

Excellent thread, mighty Effendi.........

I try ................ occasionally.


It's a subject that has been on my mind for a while and I didn't want to start a thread on it until after the trades had been done.

Clearly there is a gulf between what we kicked last year and what we need to kick in 2015 if we want to play finals. Whilst having a strong defence is certainly going to assist in the process, we still have to find more goals and/or goal-kickers overall from within the list.

Someone else has pointed out that through trades & FA we have lost some of our "regular" avenues to goal so it is an interesting exercise to see how people think we can bridge the shortfall.

I have no doubt that there will be a "bolt from the blue" that no-one saw coming (ie. a player will bob up and kick 30-40 goals which was completely unexpected) but we cannot rely on the unexpected, we need some sort of certainty to work around.

 

[Aphrodite]

Well they won't be coming from McLean, Robinson & Lucas.

 

[Azul]

Hopefully it's Jones and Tutt, with contributions from a fully fit Kreuzer and Thomas.

Looking at our KPIs, the ball spends too much time with the opposition - we rank badly in terms of possession count, tackles and i50s. So if we radicalize the gameplan, the goals should hopefully follow.

It was a disaster after Fev left but Ratts had us playing finals footy afterward.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Casboult 25
Jones 35
Lachie 30
Walker 20
Menzel 25
Kruezar 30
Thomas 30
Judd 25
Yarran 25
Gibbs 25
Murphy 20
Jaksch 15
The rest 30

 

[Robbo's my hero]

Straight kicking

 

[King of Ruin]

What a preposterous comment.

 

[CFCtragic]

This year Carlton scored from 49.8% of inside 50s, 4th in the comp. Only North, Hawthorn & Geelong's forward line were more dangerous.
This could drop off with the changes, but Waite & Garlett really just played cameo roles this year anyway

Our forward line actually converted quite well (although accuracy was an issue), and I think that the inclusion of two players who are willing to work to make space for the others will this line improve even more.

However our real issue with kicking a winning score lies in our inability to score consistently from stoppages, and the speed of our transition game. If our midfield can spread better from stoppages and work harder on transition the goals will come.

 

[Amers]

Don't forget Tutt, he should be good for a goal a game, so there's 20.

 

[Azul]

Jamison looked promising in that game against St Kilda. Playing him forward might prolong his career.

I wouldn't mind trialling Jones at full back and Jamo at FF during the preseason.

 

[HyphensBack]

Grabbed last years averages and removed the players gone, we dropped from 276 goals to 219 goals
Based on this years performance, I added our new players and assumed some games played and used there av career goals (bold), assumed no contribution from draftees and increased the contribution from those underlined.

I'm sure I've kept someone on the list who is gone (hard to keep track with all these changes) and probably added too many extra games to the list

The basis for the analysis is the Irish mob takes over the Backline and frees up Walker to return to 2011 form and Jaksch plays predominantly back sharing the role with White
Whiley replaces McLean freeing up Murph to play more outside and kick a few more goals, Cripps and Graham get more games but dont see them adding goals all that much
jones and Watson compete for the vacant Waite role, might play both even at times if Hendo has to go back, on that basis didn't increase Hendo numbers
Kreuzer takes the ruck role and adds goals in comparison
The smoky i got is Dylan Buckley going forward to play the manic small forward we now need ( unless we snag Tutt? or Saad or ??)

So what does all this stuff i just dreamed up tell me, if Walker (2011 model) turns up and all this happens we can achieve the 330 goal target talked earlier about. Plus if our defense continues its development then it's not just glass half full but its froffies all round.

but what is Plan B - Menzel, Hendo and Casboult click and we get 30 combined extra out of that group - would be nice.
plan C - Watson or Jones are reborn in their new role/team
Plan D - Hail Mary in the draft for a small forward who provides the 30+ goals a small forward should be adding

Let's hope Plan A or B delivers cause I dont want to be crying into my froffies again next year



This is based on the following rough team:
Tuohy Jamieson. Simpson
Sheehan Rowe. Jaksch/White
Yarran Gibbs Everitt
Walker Henderson Menzel
Buckley Jones/Watson Casboult
Kreuzer Murphy Curnow

Docherty Thomas Bell Judd
emerg:Whiley Carazzo crips Graham Ellard

 

[Aussie Joe]

I think Reece Mckenzie can contribute 20 goals in his first season

#OperationBringReeceHome

 

[Sin City]

However our real issue with kicking a winning score lies in our inability to score consistently from stoppages, and the speed of our transition game. If our midfield can spread better from stoppages and work harder on transition the goals will come.

Spot on

 

[BluesRule]

Grabbed last years averages and removed the players gone, we dropped from 276 goals to 219 goals
Based on this years performance, I added our new players and assumed some games played and used there av career goals (bold), assumed no contribution from draftees and increased the contribution from those underlined.

I'm sure I've kept someone on the list who is gone (hard to keep track with all these changes) and probably added too many extra games to the list

The basis for the analysis is the Irish mob takes over the Backline and frees up Walker to return to 2011 form and Jaksch plays predominantly back sharing the role with White
Whiley replaces McLean freeing up Murph to play more outside and kick a few more goals, Cripps and Graham get more games but dont see them adding goals all that much
jones and Watson compete for the vacant Waite role, might play both even at times if Hendo has to go back, on that basis didn't increase Hendo numbers
Kreuzer takes the ruck role and adds goals in comparison
The smoky i got is Dylan Buckley going forward to play the manic small forward we now need ( unless we snag Tutt? or Saad or ??)

So what does all this stuff i just dreamed up tell me, if Walker (2011 model) turns up and all this happens we can achieve the 330 goal target talked earlier about. Plus if our defense continues its development then it's not just glass half full but its froffies all round.

but what is Plan B - Menzel, Hendo and Casboult click and we get 30 combined extra out of that group - would be nice.
plan C - Watson or Jones are reborn in their new role/team
Plan D - Hail Mary in the draft for a small forward who provides the 30+ goals a small forward should be adding

Let's hope Plan A or B delivers cause I dont want to be crying into my froffies again next year

View attachment 88560

This is based on the following rough team:
Tuohy Jamieson. Simpson
Sheehan Rowe. Jaksch/White
Yarran Gibbs Everitt
Walker Henderson Menzel
Buckley Jones/Watson Casboult
Kreuzer Murphy Curnow

Docherty Thomas Bell Judd
emerg:Whiley Carazzo crips Graham Ellard

I like the idea of Dylan as a small forward as he has great speed and evasion skills so should be very handy. Just not sure on his set shot yet? Has he got junior/VFL form at bagging goals? Would add to his flexibility if he could play either shut down back or handy manic forward.

 

[slashin_velvet]

I like the idea of Dylan as a small forward as he has great speed and evasion skills so should be very handy. Just not sure on his set shot yet? Has he got junior/VFL form at bagging goals? Would add to his flexibility if he could play either shut down back or handy manic forward.

He played small forward roles in the VFL in his first few seasons and was on the cusp of delisting until Mick pushed him into defense. I think this is the position we can expect to see him.....and we can then afford to push touhy forward.