Which clubs are in the most trouble? (Age wise)

[Sherrinator]

Also why do people so intently say a 238 game champion who has won a few B&Fs is 32 but can retire because someone his position, height, and possibly weight is similar enough who's 18 and proved bupkis can come in and replace him.

It's a load of s**t. The reason that side is challenging is because that player is very good. It doesn't work like that at all.

I think people suggest 32 yr old kpp might retire is due to injury/fair wear and tear/sick of lifestyle.

 

[Lethality]

Fingers crossed. Sure there are similar blokes at Geelong and Freo who they are hoping will step up to replace the Pavs and Bartels.

Geelong delisted about 8 of their younger players so maybe not. I don't know what Fremantle's situation is.

 

[Tas]

But talls are obviously a bit a worry. Since they are more difficult to find and develop. Most smaller player can have quickly an impact and be a decent replacement.


Actually think that looks pretty good agewise.

Yeah, the problem is when you have some good quality talls, then you have some unknowns and then some raw new talent the worry isn't will you be able to field a side, the concern is will it function at a high standard.

 

[AM]

Obviously it is very difficult to replace champions, but for the Hawks the players that will likely step into the team.

Lake - Frawley to take the no1 KPF, with one of Schoenmakers or Spangher to come into the team.
Mitchell - Alex Woodward
Burgoyne - Jed Anderson
Gibson - Stratton to play Gibsons role more, with Litherland coming into the team.
Hale - John Ceglar
Hodge - Brendan Whitecross

With the likes of Jono O'Rouke and Billy Hartaung also pressing for a spot.

Geez! There's a fair drop-off in quality with those replacements. Just sayin.......

 

[syl97]

Geez! There's a fair drop-off in quality with those replacements. Just sayin.......

It is. Will be a real challenge replacing those player. Not one of those six is anywhere near that level. Need to get as many years out of those guys as we can.

 

[dickballsack]

Free agency makes this topic null and void. As soon as a club sees a hole in their list they will seek players out 1-2 years in advance ( see hawks/ frawley) this will be the norm and unfortunately it will favour the bigger or successful clubs. Roos came out and said that it was the most 'unequalising change to the afl trying to equalise the comp'. Unfortunately free trade was brought upon from the players, not the afl. The issue I have is that it was brought in for the mid tier players to be able to move freely from club to club but what has happened( and predicted my mick malthouse) is that it has just turned the focus on big clubs getting out free agent guns from the smaller clubs and the low/mid tier players being over looked even more. On topic, clubs like haws, cats and swans that are high on the list will regenerate through this as players will want to play for them.

 

[Lethality]

Geez! There's a fair drop-off in quality with those replacements. Just sayin.......

Already replaced Sewell with Langford. Expect to do something similar with those names or others. Players such as Sicily, Litherland, Woodward, Willismore, Webster, Anderson, Hartung, Heatherly should ensure that we won't be dropping off any time soon.

 

[Dazb86]

Already replaced Sewell with Langford. Expect to do something similar with those names or others. Players such as Sicily, Litherland, Woodward, Willismore, Webster, Anderson, Hartung, Heatherly should ensure that we won't be dropping off any time soon.

This sort of talk sounds really familiar. I can remember trotting out similar s**t when the dogs started dropping off. Same as St Kilda fans 2 years ago/start of this year.

You guys won a few flags so its all null and void if you drop off regardless.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think Geelong is pretty set everywhere, except for key defenders. The Cats really need at least one of Blicavs or Stanley to show a bit in defence next year and probably need two of Blicavs/Stanley/Jake Kolodjashnij/James Toohey to be regular senior players long-term. I really like what I've seen of Jed Bews as a small defender, Jackson Thurlow is able to start attacking drives off half back and there are other options like Billie Smedts and Cam Guthrie, who have had a fair bit of senior experience in defence.

In the midfield, Stokes and Johnson are going to be huge losses when they retire and the loss of Christensen hurt, but I think we've got enough talented young players there to make the transition. Whether that translates to the team having a dominant midfield, or a mediocre one, time will tell. Ruck is another issue, but that's been an issue since Ottens retired. I don't think it's got much to do with the age of our list, more the durability of McIntosh and Simpson. We're overloaded with key forwards, all of whom will be in the AFL for 5-10 more years (if they're good enough). And Murdoch, McCarthy and Motlop look to have the makings of at least a solid small/medium forward nucleus.

If we assume every player that was 31 or over as at Round 1 had retired, the team for 2017, as it stands, would be something like:

B: Jed Bews, Rhys Stanley, Harry Taylor
HB: Jackson Thurlow, Mark Blicavs, Billie Smedts
C: Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Darcy Lang
HF: Steven Motlop, Mitch Clark, Jordan Murdoch
F: Shane Kersten, Tom Hawkins, Lincoln McCarthy
R: Dawson Simpson, Cam Guthrie, Josh Caddy
I/C: George Horlin-Smith, Brad Hartman, Jarrad Jansen, Nakia Cockatoo
E: Josh Walker, Nathan Vardy, Daniel Menzel, Josh Cowan, Jake Kolodjashnij, Michael Luxford, James Toohey, Zac Bates

A few question marks there (particularly whether we'll have the ability to allow Taylor to play a Scarlett role later in his career with the key defenders that we have coming through), but not too bad at all, considering how good the Cats have been for so long.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Swallow is a potential free agent at the end of 2015, will see if he re-signs early or not.

There is little doubt that our captain is going anywhere. We're not the Bulldogs.

 

[Rod Stroker]

I think Geelong is pretty set everywhere, except for key defenders. The Cats really need at least one of Blicavs or Stanley to show a bit in defence next year

I don't think many people views either of those players as key defenders. Or even non-key defenders.

 

[SUNS]

Ablett - Jaeger O'meara, David Swallow or Dion Prestia

Malceski - Kade Kolodjashnij or Trent McKenzie

 

[TwentyNine]

North Melbourne (7)
(Harvey, Petrie, Waite, Firrito, Dal Santo, Wells, Grima)

Re: North the most worrying thing is that our best outside runners in Harvey, Dal Santo, Wells are all in the older category, and we have no obvious replacements for them. We've got guys like Kieran Harper, Brad McKenzie, etc, but we're not really certain what we'll ever get out of them. I was suprised we didn't draft any players of this mould but then we didn't really have any fall into our laps, I suspect we'll target one or two in the draft/trade next year, and maybe a few in the rookie draft this year. Harvey, Wells, Dal Santo are all fairly durable guys - I think Dal Santo has a good three years left in him, and Harvey shows no signs of slowing down. Wells often has injury trouble but is still playing good football when fit.

Petrie our most important key forward and I guess now Waite are both nearing the end but we have a few younger key forwards who I think will be able to take up the mantle by the time those guys retire. Petrie is a pretty durable bloke and is still kicking up 40 or 50 goals per year so I think we will have him around another 3 or more years yet, with a bit of luck.

Then it's just the key defenders... Firrito and Grima are great clubmen but I think, when the time comes, we have replacements for them. Firrito might even get pushed out again this year with Jamie Macmillan fit, and with guys like Joel Tippett, Cam Delaney, and now Dudrin, Nielson & VW coming through, we will have a replacement for Grima before too long.

The good news is that the majority of our midfield is pretty young, with Swallow at the of peak of his career currently, and the likes of Ziebell, Cunnington etc etc just about to embark upon theirs, not to mention guys like Atley, McDonald etc who will improve in the years to come. We had three players all in their first year of their AFL careers in our side that played three finals and won two this year, which is a great sign that our youth has talent and is getting big game experience.

 

[Cynic]

Replacing our over 29s will be a huge challenge. I think we are in a good position to do so with out younger players and free agency but there is no guarantees that's for sure. Our team without out thirty year olds looks fine but there is always more confidence in your own young players than there should be.

OUT - Hodge, Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale, Mitchell and Lake
IN - Whitecross, Litherland, Schoenmakers, Anderson, O'Rourke and Woodward

 

[RichoRocks2006]

So for this I picked players that were over the age of 29 right at this moment. Looking at the clubs below which clubs do you think are in the most trouble in terms of replacing aging stars and for your own club who do you see coming through that can replace the guys who are 29 years or older?


Geelong (9)
(Enright, Johnson, Bartel, Kelly, Lonergan, Mackie, McIntosh, Rivers, Stokes)


Fremantle (8)
(McPharlin, Pavlich, Sandilands, Crowley, Johnson, Duffield, Mundy, Silvia)


North Melbourne (7)
(Harvey, Petrie, Waite, Firrito, Dal Santo, Wells, Grima)


Essendon (6)
(Fletcher, Chapman, Winderlich, Watson, Goddard, Cooney)


Hawthorn (6)
(Lake, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Gibson, Hale, Hodge


Sydney (6)
(Goodes, Shaw, Richards, Pyke, McVeigh, McGlynn)


Brisbane (4)
(Staker, Maquire, Merrett, Adcock)


St Kilda (4)
(Fisher, Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster)


Western Bulldogs (4)
(Murphy, M.Boyd, Morris, Minson)


Adelaide (3)
(Podsiadly, Thompson, Reilly)


Carlton (3)
(Judd, Carrazzo, Simpson)


Melbourne (3)
(Cross, Jamar, Vince)


Gold Coast (2)
(Ablett, Malceski)


Greater Western Sydney (2)
(Patfull, Shaw)


Port Adelaide (2)
(Cornes, Schulz)


Richmond (2)
(Newman, Foley)


Collingwood (1)
(Swan)


West Coast (1)
(Priddis)

I Think Geelong and North have the most to worry about.

For Mine Geelongs top 5 players are : Sellwood, Johnson, Bartel, Hawkins, Kelly). 3 out of 5 going from any teams top 5 is going to hurt.

Norths: Harvey, Petrie, Dal Santo, Swallow, Cunnington. For mine Harvey, Petrie and Dal and to a lesser extent the emergence of Cunnington and Greenwood (no longer relevant) where the reason North performed as well as they did in 2014. Can see Harvey and Petrie finishing up at similar times which will really hurt the club. If Ben Brown can continue in the vein he has started could help fill the Petrie void but Harvey is and out and out gun and the absolute heart and soul of the club. Will be very had to cover.

I think the other clubs with 6 or more in the +29 category have proven they can perform without a host of their stars enough to be reasonable confident that they will remain in contention for years to come. I dont thik either North or Geelong will do a St kildaesque bottom out completely but think when the time comes both can look forward to a few years sitting outside the 8.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Already replaced Sewell with Langford. Expect to do something similar with those names or others. Players such as Sicily, Litherland, Woodward, Willismore, Webster, Anderson, Hartung, Heatherly should ensure that we won't be dropping off any time soon.

You honestly think those guys will perform to the same level as guys like Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne? I'd be surprised if even 2 of those guys you listed play 100 games.

 

[L_W_P]

Riewoldt - McCartin
Fisher - Goddard
Dempster - Roberton - Assuming his ankle is ok.
Montagna - McKenzie
Schneider - Lonie

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I don't think many people views either of those players as key defenders. Or even non-key defenders.

That's nice. Blicavs is clearly set to play in defence in 2015 and Stanley has played there in the past. You may recall the Round 10 game this season when Blicavs was forced to come on as the sub against North Melbourne and pinch hit for Tom Lonergan, after Lonergan was subbed out with concussion. Blicavs looked fine in that game, so I'm not sure why Geelong supporters shouldn't be optimistic of his potential, after spending a whole preseason playing at that end of the ground.

And, of course, if that doesn't work out, there's always the free agency and trade period to secure a key defender or two, if required.

 

[JUBJUB]

I Think Geelong and North have the most to worry about.

For Mine Geelongs top 5 players are : Sellwood, Johnson, Bartel, Hawkins, Kelly). 3 out of 5 going from any teams top 5 is going to hurt.

Er....what now ?
Not even top 10 these days

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I Think Geelong and North have the most to worry about.

For Mine Geelongs top 5 players are : Sellwood, Johnson, Bartel, Hawkins, Kelly). 3 out of 5 going from any teams top 5 is going to hurt.

Kelly ahead of Harry Taylor? Wow. Kelly probably isn't even in our top dozen players anymore. As good as he's been, he's coming to the end quickly, he's been pretty ordinary - by his lofty standards - the past two years and will be pretty easily replaced. Bartel has also been having less and less of an influential role in the side.

You could easily say that Geelong's top five is Selwood (26), Hawkins (26), Taylor (28), Johnson (31) and Motlop (23) or Duncan (23). In fact, I'd say that's a lot more accurate. The teams that have a top five of players that are all in their mid-20s or younger are generally the rubbish ones.

 

[Smokin]

Free agency makes this topic null and void. As soon as a club sees a hole in their list they will seek players out 1-2 years in advance ( see hawks/ frawley) this will be the norm and unfortunately it will favour the bigger or successful clubs.

exactly.

The key new is to get your top end, elite talent form the draft and when the time is right, cover holes with targeted free agents.

Why would Essendon care about Goddard's age? He is a $850K free agent- if nothing is from within, we role him into another 850K free agent. Nothing to panic about.

The clubs who struggle to attract free agents, or keep stuffing up their quality talent at the young end are the ones who need to worry.

Obviously, over time the table will turn but IMHO will take longer to happen than before. Hawthorn and Geelong have been able to stay up there longer with recruiting guys in. But, eventually they will not be able to keep covering as the quality has dropped off from the bottom age and it will catch up with them.

 

[Grongey]

Geez, Port Adelaide with just 2.

And they've just picked up a very promising young tall Dougal Howard, at number 56 in the draft.

 

[lmach]

It's going to be hard for Gold Coast to replace Malceski; not sure what they would do should he get injured.

 

[Jables]

You honestly think those guys will perform to the same level as guys like Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne? I'd be surprised if even 2 of those guys you listed play 100 games.

Skepticism over replacing stars (though we've replaced more than enough the past 6 years without top 20 picks) with the position we've been in is warranted, but if you actually watch any of the kids we've mentioned I'd bet you'd eat your words. We're not excited about our kids for no reason. The only thing stopping Anderson from becoming a genuine star is his body, Langford has the body for it and has improved his kicking immensely. There's two midfielders of the future right there.

Yes Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne are really good. Stars. So were Crawford, Bateman, Croad and Mark Williams in 2008. I didn't think we'd replace them easily, but as it turns out we had more trouble replacing Robbie Campbell. Okay, Croad was awful to replace, but still we don't have any worries with KP players.

I don't see any similarities with the Bulldogs or any other top team fading away at all, our key position prospects bar Gibson (Heatherley, Stratton, Litherland can all fill there easily) are all in good shape for years to come and Geelong proved replacing the very best midfielder can be done with no fuss. Free agency is in effect now too, all hail the rich successful clubs, whoop whoop.

 

[tige19]

It's so pathetic to consider 29 old yet 27/28 is prime? Give me a break. Old should be considered 31+ in AFL terms.

Guys like Priddis, Sandilands, Richards, Mcpharlin, Hodge etc have all played some of their best footy at 29+. We will see this brought up time and again and we will continue to see mature sides win flags.