Who are the real contenders in 2015?

[pavsbootlace]

I've been interested by several comments made in other threads on this board about Port being one of the benchmarks for 2015. So, I'm hoping to get a few responses on who people think are the real premiership threats.

The way I see it, there are about 6 teams each year that have a real chance of winning the flag. There's usually 2 or 3 with a very strong chance and another few would need a few things to go their way to take home the cup.

In my opinion at the beginning of 2015, I don't see anything changing significantly from last year...

Definite Contenders - Hawthorn and Sydney were the teams to beat in 2014 and I can't see any significant reason for either team to drop off.

Outside Chances - Port seem to have a very good reputation on here, but it's worth considering what happened late in the H&A season when they were a few players down. They had all their key players on deck for finals, but you can't guarantee that will happen next year. Like Freo, Port are reliant on having their best players fit and cannot cover injuries like Hawthorn did in 2014. Interesing fact: Port have won only 6 of their last 14 games. Also, in their last 5 games against top 6 teams they've won 1 and lost 4. A young, improving side, but still only an outside chance, IMO.

Outside Chance - Freo. Despite losing a final at home to Port, I feel that with our best 22 on the park we're a better team than Port. Problem is, there some injury prone old blokes on our list which means I don't expect to see our best 22 on the park this year. We'd need good run but are still a chance.

Outside Chance - North have a few old blokes on their list as well and their finals performance against Sydney was insipid, but I still think they have the talent to get their if the chips fall their way.

Outside chance - Geelong. I've been trying to write them off for years, but they just keep coming.

I can't see anyone from outside the top 6 winning the flag next year.

So who do you think are in the box seat? And who is at the next level?

 

[Lach72]

Don't see North as a genuine contender. Bit light in the middle where they're still very dependent on Harvey.

Not sure we're a genuine contender unless we see big strides from Taberner and Apeness

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Definite contenders. Fremantle & Sydney.
Fremantle are a top 4 team and with a good injury run will be top 2. A top 2 finish for Fremantle would see them in the Grand Final as I can't see them losing a QF and PF at Subiaco.
Sydney, obviously because that is the AFL's business model.

Outside Chance. Hawthorn. very difficult to play three consecutive Grand Finals and their list is getting older. Frawley will either be great or terrible for them.

Outside Chance. North. They showed enough last year and if they improve on that they're a danger.
Outside Chance. Collingwood. They are better than they have shown and players moved on won't hurt them.
Outside Chance. Adelaide. I think a new coach will bring the stable environment they need. They have the list to do it.

Big slider I expect will be Port. They had a great draw last year and have been penalized for their top six finish. They could conceivably go 0-5 season start.
Gold Coast and Port to round out the eight.

 

[gaskin]

Hawthorn, Sydney
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Port, us
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The rest.

 

[Kram]

Geelong are finally cooked I reckon.

 

[pavsbootlace]

Definite contenders. Fremantle & Sydney.
Fremantle are a top 4 team and with a good injury run will be top 2. A top 2 finish for Fremantle would see them in the Grand Final as I can't see them losing a QF and PF at Subiaco.
Sydney, obviously because that is the AFL's business model.

Outside Chance. Hawthorn. very difficult to play three consecutive Grand Finals and their list is getting older. Frawley will either be great or terrible for them.

Outside Chance. North. They showed enough last year and if they improve on that they're a danger.
Outside Chance. Collingwood. They are better than they have shown and players moved on won't hurt them.
Outside Chance. Adelaide. I think a new coach will bring the stable environment they need. They have the list to do it.

Big slider I expect will be Port. They had a great draw last year and have been penalized for their top six finish. They could conceivably go 0-5 season start.
Gold Coast and Port to round out the eight.

You don't think losing Beams will be significant for Collingwood, Fred? I reckon the 'pies could sink very low next year.

 

[Moo]

Geelong are finally cooked I reckon.

You're just copying my post from 2012 ....bloody unoriginal Kram.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

You don't think losing Beams will be significant for Collingwood, Fred? I reckon the 'pies could sink very low next year.

Beams wasn't having the impact they wanted and should have been getting.
He won't be as big a loss as you think.
Buckley has had a tough injury run since coaching them and it is overdue to change.

 

[Kram]

Nafan is doing a great job of de-building the Collingwood FC.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Nafan is doing a great job of de-building the Collingwood FC.

Depend how you look at it.
He showed some nads to move on Shaw which I reckon was definitely the right call. A very undisciplined player.

 

[Beetlebum]

They will all tremble and shake before the might that will be Fremantle 2015.

The Orcs are a perennial contender and I don't see them going away any time soon. Same can be said of the COLA kids. Port give all the impressions of being the next super power of the AFL. Norf have done our old trick of making big recruiting plays for some tired old hacks in their vain effort to become relevant.

History tells me not to write the kittens off, I suspect the time is coming when Geelong miss the 8 but I'm not sure that's this year. Be good to have them in the finals to guarantee us a win at any rate. At the opposite end of the scale I can see the Suns cracking the 8 this season, that list is primed now for their first big push.

The Tuggers will make a big song and dance about being in the finals for the 3rd straight year and for the 3rd straight year they will embarass themselves once the whips are cracking.

 

[clivenator26]

Hawks, Swans, Port will almost certainly be top 4.

Freo, Richmond, North will fight out for the last spot and they will be the 4 contenders, Richmond has a very nice draw & If it weren't for early injuries to Deledio, Rance & Maric they may have challenged for top 4 this year.

Geelong & Collingwood are cooked, could make the 8 but wont be a contender for the next couple of seasons until their youth come through.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Beams wasn't having the impact they wanted and should have been getting.
He won't be as big a loss as you think.
Buckley has had a tough injury run since coaching them and it is overdue to change.

He was averaging 28 disposals a game (top 10 in the league) and had kicked 23 goals (1.25 a game) from 18 games prior to injuring his knee against Brisbane in round 21.

I don't think you have any idea what you're talking about.

Collingwood are absolutely no chance to make the top 8 next year.

 

[se17enteen]

The top 3 teams will be Sydney, Hawthorn and Daylight.

Then Port and us. The rest are there to sell beer and chips.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

He was averaging 28 disposals a game (top 10 in the league) and had kicked 23 goals (1.25 a game) from 18 games prior to injuring his knee against Brisbane in round 21.

I don't think you have any idea what you're talking about.

Collingwood are absolutely no chance to make the top 8 next year.

just in case you try and alter your post.

 

[Silent Alarm]

Hawks.

Port are a good side but I just think their depth isn't made for a flag tilt and the backline can be shaky at times.

Swans third, but they're nothing great considering Tiprat does nothing and Goodes is getting found out as a frontrunner.

 

[DMan 11]

I'll take the obvious in hawks and Sydney playing in the big dance again in 2015.. But I reckon hawks will do it from 3rd or 4th on the ladder.

The fixturing will throw some surprises into the bottom half of the 8 by years end too I think.
Any of Adelaide, Richmond, collingwood, suns, eagles etc may end up in there.

Freo to finish somewhere from 4th to 6th

 

[rodney hoo]

It's very early days, still think Freo with a bit of continuity ( small amount injuries) will figure at the business end. Hawks, sydney, favourites dark horses Tigers .

 

[simpsonwillo]

Hawks and Sydney definite contenders.
Also, the way we dismantled Hawthorn this year at Subiaco gives me quite a bit of confidence and hope. I think we have a much better draw in 2015 and if we can keep our team on the park we will definitely be there abouts.
Port also in the equation. The rest, I can't really see it

 

[Moo]

Beams wasn't having the impact they wanted and should have been getting.
He won't be as big a loss as you think.
Buckley has had a tough injury run since coaching them and it is overdue to change.

Top 3 in their B&F in 2014, previous winner ...what do you think they were looking for Fred?

 

[blue shark]

Scott brothers, Buckley style of coaching means one way running, down hill skiers
whatever you want to call it. Geelong Scott inherited a champion team, and freshened up
the list with a new voice, players, for one last go. Now has to rebuild with champion players
reaching their use by date, dont know if they have the leg speed of previous teams.
Hawks, Swans, Port, Freo top four in no particular order.
Easier to predict top four than eight at this stage, 5 to 8 will be a logjam.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Top 3 in their B&F in 2014, previous winner ...what do you think they were looking for Fred?

Only going on what Hagdorn says.
Truth be known, I forgot me medicine today and got the Daynes confused.

 

[Patty_Moz]

IMO in no particular order its Port, Hawks, Sydney and North and one team from further down always surprises the comp. I'd say we're in the 5-8 bracket

We have the oldest list and aging legs get weary very quickly. Our list is about 7 months older than the hawks, almost a year older than Sydney and Geelong and almost 2 years older than Ports.

A fair chunk of our best 22 is 30+ and we'll be lucky if they can maintain their form and fitness.

 

[Taylor]

Taylor's Take on...Collingwood:

Collingwood suffered for the loss of their prime link player, Dane Swan and the under development of inside mid replacement for Luke Ball causing the Pies to play Pendlebury out of his most influential position, distributor.

Swan offered them what Mzungu could for us, the hard running player into space. Since Swan didn't have the kms in his legs he was chased and didn't get the same space. As a result their half back line didn't have the get out option to rescue them after Harry O ran himself into trouble.

Luke Ball missing meant the prime attention goes into Pendles, not just his outside work but now the lesser users are the ones getting on the end of a handball chain and delivering inside fifty. Am I surprised Cloke was down on form this year? No. The equivalent for us would be losing Barlow and having to play Mundy closer to the stoppage, losing his ball use.

They haven't fixed their ruck submission, they haven't fixed their inside ball winners. They should improve their running game but I still believe they will rank high on opposition scoring from turnovers at half back and rebounding.

 

[clogged]

I think there will be massive turnover at the top. Sydney are the least likely of last years top four to drop out, the other three top four H&A place getters have problems with the age profile of their best 22, but Hawthorn are the next least likely. Port to move in, and maybe a surprise packet like Richmond or Gold Coast.

Geelong has lost too much talent in both experience and prime age groups to be there again. Many of Freo's key position players are close to retirement.