Why I remain positive about Geelong!

[Daniel McL]

Firstly...Collingwood is a club that won 2 premierships in the past 50-60 years. They won a flag in 2010, made the GF in 2011 and promptly sacked their coach. I don't think I'd be looking to them for advice on sustaining success.
I think our list management plan has been admirable but cruelled by LTI to some very key players i.e. Hardy, Menzel, and pretty much every ruck we've had.
You simply can't "plan" for ACLs and back surgery etc.
Considering our lack of early draft picks and the fact that 2 expansion teams have dominated early elite talent in the past 3-4 years, we were/are always up against it and to that end we have done very well imo. Kick away from a GF in 2013 with a crippled FF and no rucks was a mighty effort. Last season as well we finished equal top on points at the end of H & A but our structural weaknesses were found out in finals and some close game successes due to a winning culture and elite player performances papered over some cracks. But the point remains that we were in the mix right to the end.
It is disingenuous to believe the Club has no clue and is on the wrong path when all actual evidence points to a trend of excellence and consistent performance. It is easy to say we have a reliance on older champions but that is the very nature of AFL now. We are in "blue sky" territory now in list management with the advent of FA and aggressive TPP restrictions. Coupled with the fact that we now face a future of generally uncompromised drafts, our future looks solid. We do have a gap in the 25-28 range but every list has holes in it. I feel the club knows where it's going for 2015-2017 at least and it is not unreasonable to hope that with a little luck and good management we are in a Premiership window. The club clearly believes it by it's drafting this year.
No club wins a flag without a fair scoop of luck. Hawthorn did amazingly well last year to get pretty much all their champs fit and firing at the right time. Sydney didn't...nor did we. This year will hopefully be different.

Please tell me about this new player Hardy he must have been on the LTI list for so long I forgot him

 

[Daniel McL]

Hoping next years midfield really steps it up (other than the obvious Selwood).

Duncan is definitely improving each year.
Stevie J if stays fit is great in the middle (perhaps more time forward in 2015 to give younger guys centre time).
Stokes same as Stevie J.
Guthrie if he drops the tag will have a massive year I'm calling it.
Caddy to continue his great end of season form to become Selwood's contested partner.
Lang & Jansen to be given chances in the middle throughout year.

My starting bounce midfield for the start of the year would be Selwood, Caddy & Stevie J with Duncan & Stokes on wings.

However throughout the year (when Stevie is suspended) my preferred centre would be Selwood, Caddy & Horlin-Smith with Guthrie on wing.

 

[The rabbi]

Really Cynical?

I'm going to go through our list and classify players as either:-
1: Would be in any AFL teams best 22
2: Consistent Contributers
3: Developing Contributers
4: Deadwood or Yet breakout
5: Unknown/New to Team/LTI

I know you might not agree with all of my labels but I still think you will agree that we will not end up with


No Name Games Age
2 Smedts, Billie 33 22yr (Deadwood or Yet to breakout)
3 Bartel, Jimmy 272 30yr (Best 22)
4 Mackie, Andrew 220 30yr (Best 22)
6 McCarthy, Lincoln 5 21yr (Deadwood or Yet to breakout)
7 Taylor, Harry 159 28yr (Best 22)
8 Kolodjashnij, Jake 0 19yr (Unknown)
9 Kelly, James 256 30yr (Consistent Contributers)
10 Menzel, Daniel 21 23yr (Unknown)
11 Lang, Darcy 1 18yr (Deadwood or Yet to breakout)
11 Clark, Mitchell 97 27yr (Unknown)
13 Lonergan, Tom 145 30yr (Best 22)
14 Selwood, Joel 184 26yr (Best 22)
16 Simpson, Dawson 24 25yr (Deadwood or Yet to breakout)
17 Blease, Sam 33 23yr (Unknown)
17 McIntosh, Hamish 126 30yr (Deadwood or Yet to breakout)
18 Cowan, Josh 3 23yr (Unknown)
20 Johnson, Steve 233 31yr (Best 22)
21 Murdoch, Jordan 42 22yr (Developing Contributors)
22 Duncan, Mitchell 100 23yr (Developing Contributors)
23 Caddy, Josh 58 22yr (Developing Contributors)
24 Bews, Jed 7 20yr (Developing Contributors)
25 Rivers, Jared 182 30yr (Consistent Contributors)
26 Hawkins, Tom 147 26yr (Best 22)
27 Stokes, Mathew 175 29yr (Consistent Contributors)
28 Stanley, Rhys 58 23yr (Unknown)
29 Guthrie, Cameron 64 22yr (Developing Contributors)
30 Vardy, Nathan 21 23yr (Unknown)
32 Motlop, Steven 68 23yr (Developing Contributors)
33 Horlin-Smith, George 32 21yr (Developing Contributors)
34 Walker, Joshua 17 22yr (Developing Contributors)
35 Jansen, Jarrad 0 19yr (Unknown)
36 Hartman, Bradley 5 20yr (Unknown)
37 Luxford, Michael 0 19yr (Unknown)
39 Kersten, Shane 9 21yr (Developing Contributors)
40 Thurlow, Jackson 10 20yr (Developing Contributors)
41 Toohey, James 0 20yr (Unknown)
43 Bates, Zachary 0 19yr (Unknown)
44 Enright, Corey 288 33yr (Best 22)
46 Blicavs, Mark 45 23yr (Developing Contributers)

Okay now lets to a tally

8 Players who would be best 22 at any club
3 Consistent Contributors
11 Developing Contributors (some of who are already nearly elite)

So that is 22 players right there.

That is a whole football team.

And that is without including the players who are unknown and could yet prove to be in any of the above categories also (some we know will be if they can get fit)

So I think you are being very Cynical saying that a quarter of our team are deadwood.

I am bewildered that Mitch Duncan, Josh Caddy and Motlop are not in the best 22 players for Geelong.

I would have Duncan in the dirty dozen of players who I would think are automatic selections.
After all, he has played 100 games since his debut in 2010 as well being a premiership player.
And personally, I think that he is probably the most reliable kick in the team at the moment.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

It is disingenuous to believe the Club has no clue and is on the wrong path when all actual evidence points to a trend of excellence and consistent performance.

I never said that, so it's disingenuous to suggest I did. Sorry if my off the cuff opinion offended you so badly. You are entitled to think what you like, but apparently I'm not. Yay cyberbullies!

 

[Go Hoops]

I worry that we are apparently up for a loss while we are riding high. Heavens knows where we'll be when things turn sour.

 

[johncat]

Hoping next years midfield really steps it up (other than the obvious Selwood).

Duncan is definitely improving each year.
Stevie J if stays fit is great in the middle (perhaps more time forward in 2015 to give younger guys centre time).
Stokes same as Stevie J.
Guthrie if he drops the tag will have a massive year I'm calling it.
Caddy to continue his great end of season form to become Selwood's contested partner.
Lang & Jansen to be given chances in the middle throughout year.

My starting bounce midfield for the start of the year would be Selwood, Caddy & Stevie J with Duncan & Stokes on wings.

However throughout the year (when Stevie is suspended) my preferred centre would be Selwood, Caddy & Horlin-Smith with Guthrie on wing.

Agree. Winning clearances, along with arresting turnovers are 2 keys identified by David King in the Hun today;

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...needs-to-improve/story-fnp04d70-1227131206014

"Clearances have been an issue for some time now and while they may not always be the priority they must address the differential for the pointy end of the season improvement. Geelong are ranked AFL No.16 averaging four less than their direct opponents which during the home and away season isn’t a major concern but in small margin games can become a factor."

"THE Cats’ turnover balance sheet dropped by an average of three goals per week. This may just be the cost of not locking the ball inside their forward half by design, forcing Geelong to commit to longer possession chains from the backline to score. What mode Chris Scott brings to 2015 will be critical to their success as its imperative to stay with or even ahead of the trends of the game."

In keeping with the tone of the thread, I'm cautiously optimistic about 2015. If we can show continued improvement in our developing players, as well as our draftees coming to the party (and of course, injuries at a minimum), can't see why we won't have a good year.

 

[4quarter_cat]

I am bewildered that Mitch Duncan, Josh Caddy and Motlop are not in the best 22 players for Geelong.

I would have Duncan in the dirty dozen of players who I would think are automatic selections.
After all, he has played 100 games since his debut in 2010 as well being a premiership player.
And personally, I think that he is probably the most reliable kick in the team at the moment.

Did you read my post? I didn't say best 22 at Geelong. I said best 22 at any afl club. That means that if hawthorn or sydney had them on their list they would walk straight into their midfield. I'm not 100% convinced they would just yet, though that is being ultra conservative in order to make my point that cynical was being ridiculous.

 

[4quarter_cat]

It is funny to see people saying about the galant loss in 2004 to brizzy with a young team, and don't see the same parallels with what our current team went through this season.

 

[The rabbi]

Did you read my post? I didn't say best 22 at Geelong. I said best 22 at any afl club. That means that if hawthorn or sydney had them on their list they would walk straight into their midfield. I'm not 100% convinced they would just yet, though that is being ultra conservative in order to make my point that cynical was being ridiculous.

Yes I did but I obviously missed that point. And considering that 5 people "liked" my reply it is not out of the question to suggest that at least a few of them missed that too.
My apologies 4quarter_cat.

 

[GTOA]

Can we agree that we have many types on this board. Some optimistic, some pessimistic, some in between.

Does it serve any purpose to laugh at us because we see things differently to you?

Flag are hard to win!

So how good are we to win three in a space of six years.

 

[GTOA]

If its a choice between Hawkins and Dangerfield then in my mind 10 out 10 its Hawkins we have to have. He is vital to us structurally.

How good would it be, though, to have Dangerfield kick onto Hawkins' chest.

 

[GTOA]

I think Collingwood have the right idea, go for the complete rebuild even if it means dropping down the ladder for a few seasons. Trade Senior players while they still have currency to get top 10 draft picks. Very brave move by them, and shows they're not trying to hold onto recent past success, but build for new success.

I admire Geelong are trying to win a flag and rebuild at the same time, but I fear it's a recipe for getting stuck in the middle top 8, always being not quite good enough to win against the current hot teams, but good enough to beat the mediocre ones. It also means that your draft picks are always going to be outside the top 10 so we end up getting the same type of players that are keeping us as a middle of the road team. I think it's a vicious circle.

The younger blokes rely too much on the old brigade to save games still, and the oldies are in obvious decline. Going out in finals in straight sets in 2014 is not a great achievement, and doesn't give me hope of a sudden resurrection in 2015. Despite having Clark in the forward as a CHF. Our midfield is not A grade, and we have aging defenders. On paper, our forward line is probably our best asset and that struggled in 2014.

I like the optimism, and I think we can still win around 15 games in 2015, but nothing I've seen in recent years inspires me to believe our premiership window is open at the moment.

Our Golden Era ended with the 2011 flag. It's all uphill from here.

To all those saying we should bottom out.

"Our picks are always going to be outside the top ten".

Guess what, most of our premiership players were picks outside the top ten. Outside of Bartel (8), Selwood (7), and Mackie (8), most of our great team are made up of players who were picked in the 30's and 40's in the draft.

As long as we have Stephen Wells picking talent, I am confident that we can find gems anywhere in the draft.

 

[Teriyakicat]

To all those saying we should bottom out.

"Our picks are always going to be outside the top ten".

Guess what, most of our premiership players were picks outside the top ten. Outside of Bartel (8), Selwood (7), and Mackie (8), most of our great team are made up of players who were picked in the 30's and 40's in the draft.

As long as we have Stephen Wells picking talent, I am confident that we can find gems anywhere in the draft.

Those comments definitely belong in this thread!! in fact I reckon Wellsy does BETTER outside the top 10 than inside top 10 with his draft picks.

 

[witsend]

I never said that, so it's disingenuous to suggest I did. Sorry if my off the cuff opinion offended you so badly. You are entitled to think what you like, but apparently I'm not. Yay cyberbullies!

Wow...did I direct at you personally? No I didn't. But I think you're being pretty sensitive there, mate. I'm a bit miffed at being called a cyber bully for using the term "disingenuous"! But of course I'll get over it.

 

[Moneypenny]

Yep you're not the only one. I remember in 04 against the Lions in the prelim that I was so convinced that we'd lose that I actually enjoyed watching the game and seeing our young players trying their hearts out only to be denied by a superior team on the night. I must say, as silly as it sounds it was quite enjoyable and I think it really helped our young players develop into the team that they became in the following years.

This is how I watch games these days! I tend to focus on seeing what the team can do these days, rather than dwelling on what "they" could have done 3 years ago ("they" being a number of 2/3 time premiership players who have moved on or retired) or what we can't do (I.e. Play perfectly and beat everyone senseless). Once I reached that acceptance, I felt freer to enjoy watching a game instead of worrying we weren't good enough to win everything. It's so much more exciting seeing what new tricks Josh Caddy or Cam Guthrie have picked up during the week or seeing how GHS is tracking, what new level of amaze Mitch D has attained etc., and it makes potentially heartbreaking moments (**cough**finals**cough**) a little easier to swallow.

Of course I hope that the team goes out with that standard win at all costs, supremely confident attitude they've had for nearly 8 years - I wouldn't expect anything less since it's a modern hallmark of the club. But I'm an optimist which seems to be a dirty word around here. I take the good with the bad. My only non-negotiable is that if the team fails, they fail together and they learn together. One of my lecturers said at the start of the semester that good learners make mistakes, and it made so much sense to me. As long as you recognise that it went wrong, why it went wrong and try and push yourself to erase that fault in the future. That's all I ask.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

The major thing holding us back from being really in the mix next year is A graders in the mids. Let's hope wells can put out pick 10 to use and pull out some magic

We will once again have clearance problems for 4 strait years. Selwood is the only one on our list last year that got 100+ clearances in 2014, with our second best only getting 60 odd. Bundy was our second best in 2013 and now he's gone.

Compare that to Freo (top 4 example) that had 3 players more then Selwood with the 3(Fyfe, Mundy Barlow) getting 360+ and our 3 best not even getting half of that. Our midfield is the worst in the leauge at this so whatever we're doing is not working.

So it's hard to be positive because these things win you flags,but at the same time some in here aren't being positive, they are merely hoping that we become the Geelong of old which is not optimism.

 

[GTOA]

We will once again have clearance problems for 4 strait years. Selwood is the only one on our list last year that got 100+ clearances in 2014, with our second best only getting 60 odd. Bundy was our second best in 2013 and now he's gone.

Compare that to Freo (top 4 example) that had 3 players more then Selwood with the 3(Fyfe, Mundy Barlow) getting 360+ and our 3 best not even getting half of that. Our midfield is the worst in the leauge at this so whatever we're doing is not working.

So it's hard to be positive because these things win you flags,but at the same time some in here aren't being positive, they are merely hoping that we become the Geelong of old which is not optimism.

How many flags has Fremantle won with Fyfe, Mundy and Barlow getting 360+?

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

How many flags has Fremantle won with Fyfe, Mundy and Barlow getting 360+?

They have gaps in other areas.

But is that all you picked out of what I said? You looked for something to pick on?

 

[The rabbi]

How many flags has Fremantle won with Fyfe, Mundy and Barlow getting 360+?

You know the answer to that question.
The point that Alkanphel made is valid. We only have one A grade clearance midfielder and we have paid dearly for it. For a team that finished 3rd at the end of the home and away rounds and still rates as poorly as 16th in clearances, it can be the difference between being a team that perennially makes the finals but does not progress past week one, or a team that is a genuine contender for the flag.
While we do have weaknesses in other areas, surely the clearance issue is a glaring deficiency to anyone who regularly watches Geelong play.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

You know the answer to that question.
The point that Alkanphel made is valid. We only have one A grade clearance midfielder and we have paid dearly for it. For a team that finished 3rd at the end of the home and away rounds and still rates as poorly as 16th in clearances, it can be the difference between being a team that perennially makes the finals but does not progress past week one, or a team that is a genuine contender for the flag.
While we do have weaknesses in other areas, surely the clearance issue is a glaring deficiency to anyone who regularly watches Geelong play.

It was indeed a point I was making, I used Freo because I remember looking up their stats earlier on in the year.

Everything you said I agree with Rabbi. Selwood needs help, and until it gets addressed, it will stay this way and we will struggle come finals when the heat is turned up.

 

[The rabbi]

It was indeed a point I was making, I used Freo because I remember looking up their stats earlier on in the year.

Everything you said I agree with Rabbi. Selwood needs help, and until it gets addressed, it will stay this way and we will struggle come finals when the heat is turned up.

And I am of the opinion that our defense would look a hell of a lot better if they were not constantly subjected to the opposition getting first use of the ball and putting enormous pressure on them all the time.
The clearances to my mind are THE MAJOR issue that needs to be addressed in 2015 if Geelong are to be contenders.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

And I am of the opinion that our defense would look a hell of a lot better if they were not constantly subjected to the opposition getting first use of the ball and putting enormous pressure on them all the time.
The clearances to my mind are THE MAJOR issue that needs to be addressed in 2015 if Geelong are to be contenders.

Yup Agree 100%, would make out back 6 even better.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

This is how I watch games these days! I tend to focus on seeing what the team can do these days, rather than dwelling on what "they" could have done 3 years ago ("they" being a number of 2/3 time premiership players who have moved on or retired) or what we can't do (I.e. Play perfectly and beat everyone senseless). Once I reached that acceptance, I felt freer to enjoy watching a game instead of worrying we weren't good enough to win everything. It's so much more exciting seeing what new tricks Josh Caddy or Cam Guthrie have picked up during the week or seeing how GHS is tracking, what new level of amaze Mitch D has attained etc., and it makes potentially heartbreaking moments (**cough**finals**cough**) a little easier to swallow.

Of course I hope that the team goes out with that standard win at all costs, supremely confident attitude they've had for nearly 8 years - I wouldn't expect anything less since it's a modern hallmark of the club. But I'm an optimist which seems to be a dirty word around here. I take the good with the bad. My only non-negotiable is that if the team fails, they fail together and they learn together. One of my lecturers said at the start of the semester that good learners make mistakes, and it made so much sense to me. As long as you recognise that it went wrong, why it went wrong and try and push yourself to erase that fault in the future. That's all I ask.

Seriously, this is an absolute gem of a post!

 

[4quarter_cat]

On the topic of clearances, are people not optimistic that Caddy, Horlin-Smith, Guthrie, and Duncan will continue to improve? Especially since our ruck stocks are stronger and deeper now than at any point since Ottens retired.

 

[The rabbi]

I would still like to see another couple of big bodied midfielders come through in the future.

We have lost strong bodied players who worked through the middle in Ablett, Ling, Chapman, Corey and Rooke. While at the same time players like Bartel, Kelly are aging.

We definitely need kids like Jansen, Hartman and Lang (I conceed that Lang is a lighter built player) to come through in 2015 as well as gain improvement from the above mentioned players in 4-quarter-cat's post.