Will we make top 4?

[Procrastinator35]

Back to back to back.... the hard way.... the Hawthorn way!

No one is saying it's impossible....But at this stage, it's highly improbable....Round 8 & we are at a 50% strike rate. Does not bode well for 2015.

 

[skwunk]

I think we'll make top 4, since all the others pushing for top 4 aren't exactly the most incredible teams. And Port who everyone thought was definitely in the top 4 is well outside the 8. And, we play Freo in an odd numbered round.

 

[Wundo]

Okay then...

Since the current finals configuration (2000) the premiership winner / GF'ists has come from the following placing's after the home / away season:

1st 2000 (premier), 2001 (RU), 2004 (premier), 2007 (premier), 2008 (RU), 2009 (RU), 2010 (premier), 2011 (RU), 2012 (RU), 2013 (premier), 2014 (RU)
2nd 2001 (premier), 2002 (premier) 2003 (RU), 2004 (RU), 2005 (RU), 2006 (premier), 2007 (RU), 2008 (premier), 2009 (premier), 2011 (premier), 2014 (premier)
3rd 2003 (premier), 2005 (premier), 2006 (RU), 2010 (RU), 2012 (premier), 2013 (RU)
4th 2002 (RU)
5th
6th
7th
8th

In 15 years 3 teams have come from outside the top 2 to win the premiership and 7 have come from outside the top 2 to make the GF. Of those 7 teams 2 lost the first match in week 1

So why not let the facts get in the way of a good story

History, whilst telling an interesting story, does not in any way predict the future. Just because it hasn't happened, doesn't mean it can't.

 

[ACTion Hawks]

If we play like we have - No
If we play more like we can - Yes

Can we win the whole thing - yes, even if we are not in the top 4. History says a lot of stuff, but if mathematically possible then yes.

However, if we are in the form required to win the whole thing then we most likely will have made the top 4!

 

[moginie]

Yes.

As you'd know Procrastinator35 I'm a big believer in history, but there has many cases where past history means nothing - our first finals win, our first premiership, even last year when we won the big one fir the first time without the number 23 playing.

Our best still needs to be fine tuned. Our worst needs to improve from week to week.

Our domination of three of last weeks four quarters without putting a game winning lead on the board was lamentable. I'm pretty certain the powers that be think the same.

Trips to Perth, Adelaide & Sydney will be the games that determine where we finish. The rest of the draw is very favourable to us. Win those away three & we'll comfortably be in the 4.

 

[JustKickIt]

If we play like we have - No
If we play more like we can - Yes

Can we win the whole thing - yes, even if we are not in the top 4. History says a lot of stuff, but if mathematically possible then yes.

However, if we are in the form required to win the whole thing then we most likely will have made the top 4!

It's mathematically possible for Richmond to finish 9th

 

[crazywildhorse]

It's mathematically possible for Richmond to finish 9th

Yes please!

 

[skwunk]

I just did ladder predictor, had Hawthorn second, winning 18 games with 204%, may have been a little biased, just a tad.

 

[MightyHawks]

History, whilst telling an interesting story, does not in any way predict the future. Just because it hasn't happened, doesn't mean it can't.

A team might win from 5th-8th one day... it just won't be an older team like ours

More likely to be a young team like Port last year that gets on a roll

 

[Gunstall555]

I just did ladder predictor, had Hawthorn second, winning 18 games with 204%, may have been a little biased, just a tad.

% and ladder position seems a bit low for you to be biased

 

[Wundo]

A team might win from 5th-8th one day... it just won't be an older team like ours

More likely to be a young team like Port last year that gets on a roll

Or a more experienced team that finds form and gets a full strength team at the right time, and gets on a roll.

Never say never.

 

[Angus Young]

Top 4 is in the bag...

Last year was way more stressful.

Adelaide is a danger game.

If we are not lazy and complacent we kill essendon and collingwood

 

[Angus Young]

oh... and we will beat Freo in Mebourne and if we have to travel to Sydney for a final we will win there also.

Just need to avoid Freo in Perth

 

[Angus Young]

Players looking for a challenge have decided they wanna try and win the premiership from 8th spot.

Good luck with that. Just remember guys, you can't win the flag in the finals by going WLWL.

That s**t is over now champ

 

[Agent Smith]

That s**t is over now champ

For christ sake, say that NEXT week, not THIS week!!!!

 

[Pessimistic]

Well know in acouple of months......precious few opportunities to catch up in he last six ish rounds

 

[skwunk]

% and ladder position seems a bit low for you to be biased

Yeah, was only the maximum percentage possible on ladder predictor. So I guess I was harsh on Hawks

 

[Endorphin Machine]

Talent is there to make the four, dont believe the mind is willing though. We could just miss out I reckon

 

[Billyc]

Last week blew top 2. Lock freo and swans in for top 2. They won't stumble from here. Best case scenario is to finish 3rd, roll swans in Sydney and then stay in Melbourne.

But we need to start playing good footy and barely lose a game from here. And we need all the other sides above us to fall off. At the moment we look like a 5-10 side. It's only on ability and past deeds that top 4 remains a conversation. Our 2015 form does not justify it.

 

[HolyWars]

Thanks to the Dogs doing a number on GWS atm, at worst we will be one game out of the top four.
Let's hope Adelaide lose to Freo and Collingwood lose to NM in their matches to come.

 

[PNess]

worth re-iterating. our best is still the best by a fair margin. our main concern is having the most compete and fit list heading into september that we possibly can. we'll be finishing fast this year no doubt.

With Hodge and with straight kicking we smash Sydney by 6 goals.

As long as we finish 6th or higher and produce our best in Sep/Oct we're in it.

 

[dcutter]

The 2003 anomaly is significant and strikingly similar to our current situation:
- Brisbane won their 3rd straight flag, we are shooting for ours
- they finished 3rd on the ladder
- they lost their qualifying final yet still saluted (cheers Clarko) at the end.

Despite an indifferent start to the year I believe we are the team most feared (especially by Freo)

We have an undeniable belief within the group (like Brisbane) and seem to bring out our best when the real heat is on.

Let them WA wan_kers occupy the top 4 and take all the kudos. The real battle hasn't even begun yet, and this seasoned side knows when to walk and when to run.

We make top 4 then we have every reason to feel very, very confident

 

[Davo23]

it doesnt make any sense.. last year we were the team to start with a 5-7goal opening quarter and most teams couldnt get back in the game.
this year its the total opposite.. so last season we did that and thiis season its been done to us? did all the coaches come together to try make a plan vs hawks or wot? how can u go totally opposite withtin 1 season and basically same team too.. weird stuff

This is not even close to true. There were so many games in 2014 where we were close at half time and blew teams away in the second half. Remember the Swans and Geelong games?
We were behind at half time and smashed them.

What's been happening is not "starting slow", it's being challenged by the other team and being good enough to see off the challenge and go on with the game.

We can still do it.

 

[SA HAWK]

If we don't drop any more games that we shouldn't (Essendon, GWS, Sydney) we will finish top 4.

Away games against Adelaide and particularly West Coast are crucial.

 

[threesixpio]

I just did ladder predictor, had Hawthorn second, winning 18 games with 204%, may have been a little biased, just a tad.

Lol