Winning by Big Margins

[theGav56]

To summarise the reasons for optimism:
- emerging players, especially Taberner and Crozier.
- Walters playing more games.
- possible change to a more attacking tagger.
- possible new role for Mayne who failed to impact the scoreboard last season.

I don't think those things are going to result in us demolishing teams, they seem more incremental in nature.

 

[Swan Districts Kid]

Actually, no. We ranked 10th last year for inside 50s and 6th for Goals.

Compared to the top sides:

Hawthorn averaged 55.3 i50s and 16.7 goals = 0.3 goals per i50
Sydney. 56.2 i50s for 12.9 goals = 0.23 goals per i50
Port. 56.2 i50s for 14.5 goals = 0.26
Freo. 50 i50s for 13.2 goals = 0.264 goals per i50


What we lack is inside 50s.

I agree.
Those stats show that we're pretty good at scoring from inside 50 entries, but as you point out we simply didn't get it into our forward line enough.
Which is obviously why Coaching staff have been placing preseason emphasis on winning 1st possession from centre bounces, clearance work and fast ball movement. & also a reason why we drafted talented midfielders.

 

[Purple Jesus]

Actually, no. We ranked 10th last year for inside 50s and 6th for Goals.

Compared to the top sides:

Hawthorn averaged 55.3 i50s and 16.7 goals = 0.3 goals per i50
Sydney. 56.2 i50s for 12.9 goals = 0.23 goals per i50
Port. 56.2 i50s for 14.5 goals = 0.26
Freo. 50 i50s for 13.2 goals = 0.264 goals per i50


What we lack is inside 50s.

Which is why D Pearce will always get a game.

 

[pavsbootlace]

Which is why D Pearce will always get a game.

I disagree. I think the reason he gets the most i50s is because that's the role he plays. If Crozier or Sutcliffe or Mzungu were to play that role, they might get similar numbers.

 

[theGav56]

Given that Pearce has the best figures for inside 50s in the game I simply cannot see Crozier replicating them. Perhaps Sutcliffe or Mzungu could, but I am pretty happy with the roles they currently play.

 

[clogged]

If I was an opposition coach, Pearce would be the number one player I'd want delivering inside 50s from Freo.

 

[Tas]

The major difference between scoring well and not so well largely comes from putting the ball in a good position for a team mate to score from, the goal assists is a critical stat when understanding why one team scores well and butchers some teams and other doesn't.

A disposal from a forward to a team mate in the forward 50 has a much higher probability of leading to a goal, it is the Hawthorn emphasis for forwards to find team mates moving into the corridor rather than having a low probability shot for goal.

It is much harder for midfielders who are further out from goal and defenders kicking the ball inside 50 usually results in horrendous scoring efficiency.

It comes down to who has the ball in their hand in the last possession before a shot on goal.

Taking out the chaff stats out of the equation, there were 22 players last year with 20 or more inside 50s for Fremantle for a total of 1126 inside 50s which resulted in 208 goal assists, that is overall 18.5% efficiency of I50s to goal assists.

Last year Hawthorn had 23 players with 20 or more I50s for a total of 1291 I50s and 276 goal assists, or 21.4%. However, every side, including Hawthorn, have a lot of chaff kickers going inside the forward 50, ultimate the top 10 of or so of the best users of the ball is the key. Fremantle's top 10 efficiency assisters accounted for 391 of the 1126 inside 50s (34.7%) and Hawthorn's top 10 accounted for 624 of their 1291 (48.3%).

Fremantle have too many mids and defenders launching inside the forward 50, have a much higher concentration of kicks which are kicks in hope rather than strategic ball movement that is looking to hit up a player who has made space in the corridor, it means Fremantle have to work a lot harder for the goals and have to work hard even against weak opposition. Hawthorn tends to coast against weak opposition because they just cut them open with hitting players in good position.

Fremantles top 10 most efficient assisters last year were: (I50s/Assists/Efficiency)
Mayne 28/18/64.3%
Walters 23/10/43.5%
Sandilands 25/9/36.0%
de Boer 25/8/32.0%
Barlow 56/14/25.0%
Pavlich 62/15/24.2%
Neale 54/13/24.1%
Suban 61/14/23.0%
Clarke 32/7/21.9%
Crozier 25/5/20.0%

Hawthorn's top 10 most efficient assisters last year were:
Hale 27/14/51.9%
Gunston 51/21/41.2%
Bruest 75/30/40.0%
Rioli 39/12/30.8%
Roughead 53/15/28.3%
Puopolo 71/20/28.2%
Hill 85/23/27.1%
Sewell 33/8/24.2%
Burgoyne 83/19/22.9%
Ceglar 23/5/21.7%
Hodge 84/17/20.2%

Top 10 comparison the only major significant difference is the volume of the ball these players have.

Fremantle top 10: 391/113/28.9%
Hawthorn top 10: 624/184/29.5%

Fremantle could improve significantly by altering the decision making through the middle and rather than go as long and wide as they do look to hit up more players going through the middle and then try and get the ball into the hands of those that are much better at creating scoring opportunities.

Hawthorn is just a very efficient team with both decision making and execution.

 

[Tas]

In case anyone is wondering, the 12 Freo players that weren't listed were:
Ballantyne 61/11/18.0%
Spurr 32/5/15.6%
Ibbotson 20/3/15.0%
Hill 105/15/14.3%
Pearce 127/18/14.2%
Duffield 45/5/13.3%
Fyfe 69/9/13.0%
Mundy 97/11/11.3%
Mzungu 69/7/10.1%
Johnson 30/3/10.0%
Crowley 43/4/9.3%
Sutcliffe 37/3/8.1%

 

[Fred Ziffel]

I disagree. I think the reason he gets the most i50s is because that's the role he plays. If Crozier or Sutcliffe or Mzungu were to play that role, they might get similar numbers.

But that is the whole point. That is Danyle's role and he does it.

 

[pavsbootlace]

But that is the whole point. That is Danyle's role and he does it.

I think his role would include the quality of the inside 50s, not just the quantity. His role would certainly be more complicated than simply getting as many inside 50s as possible.

I think Danyle does a pretty good job. But it is always possible that someone else could do it better.

 

[DMan 11]

I think his role would include the quality of the inside 50s, not just the quantity. His role would certainly be more complicated than simply getting as many inside 50s as possible.

I think Danyle does a pretty good job. But it is always possible that someone else could do it better.

It's true, dPearce does it well, but it's hard to look at it objectively when he's really the only one been given the duty/freedom/licence to do it. His long run of games has effectively kept us blind as to whether anyone else can step in and improve the quality or quantity of our i50's .
DPearce has had a stranglehold on it - I'm sure RTB is trying to find ways of giving it to Hilly but opponents are just so aware of it we can't get hills i50's numbers to where DP's are.
Honestly don't know if we have anyone better for DP's role, we'd all just be hypothesizing until we see it in rd 1..... I'm doubting DP plays and would be very surprised if he did.
I'm guessing we'll just see a bigger spread from accross our mids, but I'm hoping sutty is given the licence for the day - love his vision

 

[pavsbootlace]

It's true, dPearce does it well, but it's hard to look at it objectively when he's really the only one been given the duty/freedom/licence to do it. His long run of games has effectively kept us blind as to whether anyone else can step in and improve the quality or quantity of our i50's .
DPearce has had a stranglehold on it - I'm sure RTB is trying to find ways of giving it to Hilly but opponents are just so aware of it we can't get hills i50's numbers to where DP's are.
Honestly don't know if we have anyone better for DP's role, we'd all just be hypothesizing until we see it in rd 1..... I'm doubting DP plays and would be very surprised if he did.
I'm guessing we'll just see a bigger spread from accross our mids, but I'm hoping sutty is given the licence for the day - love his vision

Actually their inside 50s were almost identical in 2014...

Pearce averaged 5.29 i50s per game.
Hill averaged 5.24 i50s per game.

 

[clogged]

Actually their inside 50s were almost identical in 2014...

Pearce averaged 5.29 i50s per game.
Hill averaged 5.24 i50s per game.

One has a tagger hanging off him, the other doesn't.

Love to know how many of each result in scores/goals.

 

[youmewe]

One has a tagger hanging off him, the other doesn't.

Love to know how many of each result in scores/goals.

Their stats in 2014 were eerily similar (granted Hill's were under much more duress).

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...63&type=A&fid1=P&fopt1=2014&fid2=P&fopt2=2014

Their goal assists were identical: 0.75 per game.

Walters was clearly our best (1.25). Mayne (0.78), Barlow (0.74), Pav (0.68) and Suban (0.67) were our only others in the league top 100.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2014&rt=LA&st=GA

 

[pavsbootlace]

Their stats in 2014 were eerily similar (granted Hill's were under much more duress).

The only real difference is the Hill gets a little more of the ball. 2 more kicks and an extra handball.

I think clogged s point is telling. Hill racks up the same stats whilst being regularly tagged. It's disappointing Pearce isn't more effective with the footy.