Opinion Yes we can win the 2015 flag

[SleazySimon]

The second game against North during the year was basically our best 22. Arguably we would've had McIntosh instead of Simpson. At that point everything looked to be coming together with players fit and in form. The changes from that game to the semi final were:

Out: Simpson, Christensen, Johnson, Kersten
Ins: Walker, McCarthy, Thurlow, Brown

Arguably Brown for Kersten is just like for like and not a big change. But the other 3 are huge. We lose our number 1 ruck and 2 of our best 4 midfielders replacing them with 3 inexperienced kids. Considering our clearance work is a big weakness, losing our ruck and 2 of our best midfielders was always going to mean we'd struggle. Sure the performance was poor and we should try to improve but let's not pretend there weren't significant reasons why we were exposed that night.

There are always ifs and buts, but for me the first quarter was the biggest difference for me - something like over 40 points conceded. The skipper rightly said its unacceptable. It doesn't matter if Kersten is playing instead of Brown, McIntosh and Bundy aren't injured or whatever. It was a complete capitulation. No doubt there will be loads of excuses on this board in the off season

 

[Footy Smarts]

There are always ifs and buts, but for me the first quarter was the biggest difference for me - something like over 40 points conceded. The skipper rightly said its unacceptable. It doesn't matter if Kersten is playing instead of Brown, McIntosh and Bundy aren't injured or whatever. It was a complete capitulation. No doubt there will be loads of excuses on this board in the off season

Yes the first quarter was ugly but with the outs we had and our lack of depth (due to correctly getting rid of senior players last year) we were never a realistic chance to win a premiership. We can pretend that the biggest problem was the first quarter. Or we can be honest with where our list is at and accept that without significant improvement we'll be relying on a minor miracle to win a flag in the coming few years.

 

[TEDDY24INC]

langford averaging 19.2 possies in his first year
selwood did 19.2 in his first year too

varcoe averages 13.6 after 8 years

yeah willy goes alright

This is not Langfords first year of footy...

 

[Turkey Tom]

Of course we can win the 2015 flag. At the start of 2014 I thought there were 3 sides ahead of us - Hawthorn, Sydney and Freo, at the end of 2014 Port has gone past us and we and North are neck and neck.

From now until the 2015 GF a lot of things can go right and wrong for all teams so as long as we are there abouts (which at the moment we are) we have a chance.

Step 1 is this off-season and recruiting the right players and making the right decisions (delistings, assistant coaches etc.). Would be helpful (but not essential) to recruit some players that are ready to play seniors, be it a Free Agent or via the Trading period.

 

[Partridge]

There are always ifs and buts, but for me the first quarter was the biggest difference for me - something like over 40 points conceded. The skipper rightly said its unacceptable. It doesn't matter if Kersten is playing instead of Brown, McIntosh and Bundy aren't injured or whatever. It was a complete capitulation. No doubt there will be loads of excuses on this board in the off season

There are plenty already it seems.

 

[Vdubs]

There are plenty already it seems.

We had nothing like our best 22 in the finals, and even some who did turn up were injured, Motlop for starters. In finals, when the heat is on, surely you see that as the valid reason for our exit.
And btw, did you pick NM or Geelong?

 

[Jon Douglas]

The first thing you need to do is make an assessment of the season just passed - relative to your aims and the opposing sides.

I do not think many believed we were a real premiership threat before this season started - and that is how it turned out. GFC say that they are targeting a 2015 and 2016 tilt at a flag. So the real and only relevant question is - will we be a better team next season than this one ? If yes then it has been a successful season or if no, then we have failed.

Transitions are not easy. Knowing when to delist a great is a very hard thing to do - and it does not get easier. We have had to retire quite a few really excellent footy players who bleed blue and white. At the same time we always knew that we had a cohort that were too good to delist even though they were 30 and we still had a sniff of winning a flag. That meant many youngsters would miss opportunities to develop in the seniors as games for these type of players were few and far between.

Now we have delisted or traded older players but still face the problem of playing the best player (generally the veteran) or play a youngster so they can start to become decent AFL players in the future.

Statistically you would like to remove 2 players and add 2 new players each year. That would ensure that you do not have the issues we having, and have had. Don't forget the upside of all this is we won 3 flags and have the best H&A records from 25-200 games played.

For me we are trying to transition without being overly committed to it. They have been trying to take a middle path - keep the team winning well enough to make Top 4 - and that gave us a sniff of a getting another flag - while slowing moving older players on and then replacing them with our best option.

Unfortunately we just never quite got another flag and GFC recognised last season they had now to act with more haste. So we saw Chappy, JHunt, Pods and Corey all go. That is a huge number of games gone and players hard to replace. But the outcome of this will not really be known for another season or two. But now that we have chosen to transition faster that means we need to get a lot more senior games into players that we think may be the next best player we have on the books. And probably 2-4 of them in the 2015 season if we are to be a real threat in 2016.

I think Geelong would have given a heap of senior games to Vardy at CHF but that plan came to nothing - and Vardy will start this next season with very few senior games experience. They have also targeted Murdoch the past 2 seasons and he has a fair number of senior games now. Unfortunately he has yet to be a consistent player and he would need improve significantly next season to be have been worth the investment.

They were forced to Blitz 3 seasons ago and now he is probably best 22 - and quite a few expect he will keep improving.

We invested time into Guthrie, Duncan, Motlop and Bundy - and they have been the success stories. But we need more. You nearly always need more.

Now we need put time into 2-4 young players - perhaps Thurlow, Bews, Hamling, Hartman, Lang, Kersten, etc.

We are behind in the time table for a 2015 Premiership tilt. And there are some valid reasons why - such as a heap of injuries to Menzel, Simpson, Vardy, Cowan, Kersten and McCarthy. It would seem GFC thought they had some real winners in this group - ones that would by now have 50 + senior games and being damaging players for us.

So we need catch up a bit to be a serious threat in 2016, unless we land 2 big fish in the trade period.

I hope GFC make the assessment that we have fallen behind probably 4 clubs - and we are currently showing no signs of significantly closing the gap. We need to do what it takes to close the gap next season and go for it in 2016. Even that will take a lot of work to achieve - and probably some boldness.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The personnel doesn't have to change that much, in my opinion (maybe the available personnel); what does need to change is attitude and the game plan. We got killed when we let the opposition get the ball in space and we got obliterated in uncontested possessions in the two finals to the tune of -121. Selwood averaged six tackles per game; Guthrie and Johnson also got respectable numbers there and no other midfielder featured in the top 100 in the league. It's a cliche, but a lot more pressure needs to be generated from the midfield when it doesn't have the ball.

Clark is an interesting target. If he's being brought in to play first ruck, it makes a ton of sense. If not, does that mean curtains for Vardy? What of Walker, who was only the revelation of Geelong's finals campaign, with the potential to play a role as a poor man's Hawkins, with Travis Cloke's endurance thrown in for good measure?

 

[iameviljez]

By my count Johnson had played 166 of the previous 187 games prior to getting injured late this year. I reckon at least 7 of those missed games were due to suspension too. How does that equate to being "injury prone"? Motlop's played 63 AFL games (and 2 VFL) out of a possible 72 in the last 3 years. How does that equate to being "injury prone"?

Because Motlop in particular has missed a huge, huge chunk of his career through injury and Johnson was so stuffed that Collingwood (stupidly) looked the gift horse in the mouth. That's a strong history with injury that Bartel, Kelly (barring the broken leg) and Duncan have never had, for example.

 

[iameviljez]

Careful, you're not allowed to make comments like that - you'll be accused of making stuff up.

Haha, are you the Oracle?

 

[Catsmaninamerica]

there is a difference between reasons and excuses. Bottom line is against Hawthorn Hale killed us. A fit simpson, Johnson and Motlop and Bundy in the qualifying final makes a HUGE difference. Throw in a fit and firing Mitch Clark and you're every chance to win. We got done by 6 goals with injuries to absolute key players. We CERTAINLY would have flogged NORF.

So next year.

What makes us better?

An extra preseason into

• Caddy
• Duncan
• Murdoch
• Hartman
• Smedts
• McCrathy
• Bews
• Gutrhie
• Thurlow

Odds are they arent all gonna have "break through" preseasons that transfer into huge break through seasons, but even if Caddy, Duncan and Guthrie did, they would move toward genuine elite A grade status.

Add to that some luck. If we can get a full pre season and an injury free season for

• Motlop
• Hawkins
• Bundy
• Cowan
• Vardy
• Menzel
• Kersten
• Dawson

We become an infinitely better side. And again, realistically - we're not gonna have that happen, but even if only one or two miss, we're winning. And before you shout me down about being a dreamer, the reality is to win a flag, things need to go right. Menzel and Vardy are apparently raring to go and do a full pre season, as is Cowan. Bundy will have a late start but will get a good chunk of the PS in. Only Dawson has the question mark over him.

So really - we are in a better position than probably 14 other clubs, because we can GENUINELY say, that if we have some luck and things go right, we CAN win the flag!

• 
  
• Dawson

 

[Whit3y]

everyone talks about how certain players can only get better thus the team can only get better

they dont talk about the players can potentialy decline

 

[you pick one]

everyone talks about how certain players can only get better thus the team can only get better

they dont talk about the players can potentialy decline

This is big footy reality is not welcome here.

 

[catempire]

We can win the flag if a lot goes right including:

- Landing Clark, Frawley and perhaps one more 24-28 year old
- Unearthing at least a couple of serious A-grade midfielders that can average 20+ possessions for the season
- Having a fit 200cm+ ruckman available and in form for most of the season including all finals
- getting fitter to improve spread and combat opposition spread
- finding a way to stop the opposition kicking strings of 5 or more goals in a row against us
- accepting that playing the game our way ('the way it should be played') may not be enough and having to start to play 'bastard footy' (aka Hawthorn footy) - i.e. manning every mark and cribbing every inch over it the umpires permit, a focus on ruthless hunting the opposition player with the ball and tackling to hurt, targeting the opposition's best player for particular physical and tactical attention (none of this 'we just focus on what we want to do')

Totally do-able.

 

[thejester]

Yes we can. Yes we can. Yes we can.

(NSFW)

 

[Catsmaninamerica]

everyone talks about how certain players can only get better thus the team can only get better

they dont talk about the players can potentialy decline

we all know certain players are in decline. Truth is that Bartel and Kelly are a worry. But Balme has said that if players dont earn games (veterans) they play VFL. That simple. And the players listed above, there isnt enough room for them to ALL play. So if they had a big preseaosn and were flying, i dont mind them getting picked ahead of declining veterans.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

everyone talks about how certain players can only get better thus the team can only get better

they dont talk about the players can potentialy decline

why cant they stay the same ?????????????

would also like to point out that if our youngers players improve ,we have some luck with injuries and pick up clark anf frawley than not all the older players will be in our best 22

 

[geelong_crazy26]

we all know certain players are in decline. Truth is that Bartel and Kelly are a worry. But Balme has said that if players dont earn games (veterans) they play VFL. That simple. And the players listed above, there isnt enough room for them to ALL play. So if they had a big preseaosn and were flying, i dont mind them getting picked ahead of declining veterans.

yeahp well said , if things go to plane than there will not be room for all of these older guys

 

[iameviljez]

everyone talks about how certain players can only get better thus the team can only get better

they dont talk about the players can potentialy decline

Well put. The magic age for smaller players is usually about 28+, and perhaps an extra year for the bigs.

Who will probably decline?
- Midfield: Johnson, Bartel, Stokes, HMac
- Defence: Kelly, Lonergan, Rivers, Mackie
- Attack: Bartel

That's a pretty fair chunk of the starting 22 (when HMac starts).

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

everyone talks about how certain players can only get better thus the team can only get better

they dont talk about the players can potentialy decline

I think you could argue the exact opposite: that many supporters assume that as soon as one of our guys turns 30, he's ready for the scrap heap, while also being very pessimistic about the scope for players like Duncan, Guthrie, McCarthy, Christensen, Caddy, Motlop, Blicavs and others have to take the next step in the pecking order of AFL player. Simply put, if the improvement of enough younger players offsets any potential decline that we should see from our older players, we would logically improve, all other things being equal (e.g. no season-ending injuries to the likes of Selwood or Hawkins).

And while it's true that once a player hits 30, he probably only has a few years left, that doesn't also automatically mean that said player doesn't have a couple of very productive years left. Stokes, Johnson and Lonergan are pretty close to career-best form. Enright was an AA at age 32 and didn't drop that badly this year. Thirty doesn't have to mean anything in and of itself. Same as 29, 28, or 31 don't have to mean anything for a specific year. If we're talking about Geelong's plans for the rest of this decade, sure, the amount of guys we have that will be 30+ by the start of next year is significant. But if we're just talking about 2015, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Well put. The magic age for smaller players is usually about 28+, and perhaps an extra year for the bigs.

Who will probably decline?
- Midfield: Johnson, Bartel, Stokes, HMac
- Defence: Kelly, Lonergan, Rivers, Mackie
- Attack: Bartel

That's a pretty fair chunk of the starting 22 (when HMac starts).

And this is the other side of it. If you want to talk about 'magic ages', doesn't that also logically mean that the following players will 'probably improve'?

• Guthrie
• Duncan
• Christensen
• Smedts
• Horlin-Smith
• Vardy
• Caddy
  
• Cowan
• Menzel
• Motlop
• Walker
• Blicavs
• Murdoch
• Bews
• McCarthy
• Kersten
• Hamling
• Thurlow
• Hartman
• Lang
• Jansen
• Kolodjashnij
• Toohey
• Luxford
• Bates

If all AFL players could neatly fit into some preordained career trajectory, then we'd be ok, wouldn't we? But they don't.

 

[OzeSparky]

I think you could argue the exact opposite: that many supporters assume that as soon as one of our guys turns 30, he's ready for the scrap heap, while also being very pessimistic about the scope for players like Duncan, Guthrie, McCarthy, Christensen, Caddy, Motlop, Blicavs and others have to take the next step in the pecking order of AFL player. Simply put, if the improvement of enough younger players offsets any potential decline that we should see from our older players, we would logically improve, all other things being equal (e.g. no season-ending injuries to the likes of Selwood or Hawkins).

And while it's true that once a player hits 30, he probably only has a few years left, that doesn't also automatically mean that said player doesn't have a couple of very productive years left. Stokes, Johnson and Lonergan are pretty close to career-best form. Enright was an AA at age 32 and didn't drop that badly this year. Thirty doesn't have to mean anything in and of itself. Same as 29, 28, or 31 don't have to mean anything for a specific year. If we're talking about Geelong's plans for the rest of this decade, sure, the amount of guys we have that will be 30+ by the start of next year is significant. But if we're just talking about 2015, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.



And this is the other side of it. If you want to talk about 'magic ages', doesn't that also logically mean that the following players will 'probably improve'?

• Guthrie
• Duncan
• Christensen
• Smedts
• Horlin-Smith
• Vardy
• Caddy
  
• Cowan
• Menzel
• Motlop
• Walker
• Blicavs
• Murdoch
• Bews
• McCarthy
• Kersten
• Hamling
• Thurlow
• Hartman
• Lang
• Jansen
• Kolodjashnij
• Toohey
• Luxford
• Bates

If all AFL players could neatly fit into some preordained career trajectory, then we'd be ok, wouldn't we? But they don't.

great post.

But you forgot the irishman.

 

[Bobby_]

If we managed to sign Frawley, I'd love to see Bews and Thurlow take up the two back pockets positions beside him. Your going to get plenty of turnovers and mistakes but that's what happens with newbies.
I'd have Taylor, Rivers and Enright just ahead of them.

 

[OzeSparky]

If we managed to sign Frawley, I'd love to see Bews and Thurlow take up the two back pockets positions beside him. Your going to get plenty of turnovers and mistakes but that's what happens with newbies.
I'd have Taylor, Rivers and Enright just ahead of them.

Where would you play Mackie?
Wing? Forward?
VFL?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

great post.

But you forgot the irishman.

I did. But he can't improve (well, not in a meaningful way, when comparing our players individually between 2014-15). He wasn't here in 2014.

 

[SleazySimon]

The personnel doesn't have to change that much, in my opinion (maybe the available personnel); what does need to change is attitude and the game plan. We got killed when we let the opposition get the ball in space and we got obliterated in uncontested possessions in the two finals to the tune of -121. Selwood averaged six tackles per game; Guthrie and Johnson also got respectable numbers there and no other midfielder featured in the top 100 in the league. It's a cliche, but a lot more pressure needs to be generated from the midfield when it doesn't have the ball.

Clark is an interesting target. If he's being brought in to play first ruck, it makes a ton of sense. If not, does that mean curtains for Vardy? What of Walker, who was only the revelation of Geelong's finals campaign, with the potential to play a role as a poor man's Hawkins, with Travis Cloke's endurance thrown in for good measure?

Its not just attitude and game plan - its also better skill execution. The QF was full of more clangers than I saw in any H&A game. And to think we were supposed to be building all year to peak in finals! Not enough training is going into it. Mitch Dancan has said as much. Its a far cry from the skill precision of 2007-11 and the current Hawthorn side.

I don't know if Mitch Clark can win hitouts but if he could do what David Hale does you would take that. Not sure we need another injury prone player on the list though