Opinion Yes we can win the 2015 flag

[Partridge]

Its interesting, i constantly see Brown labeled as soft.
I tend to disagree, watching him this year on several occasions I saw him flying into a pack trying to take a mark. So I don't see him as soft I more see him as maybe not having the physical capabilities to impact that type of contest... he is still slight, he can fly into packs but against bigger guys he generally won't win

Very simple. Say it enough times, people will believe it. Especially if it confirms an existing prejudice. To do otherwise would involve possibly changing your opinion (can sometimes happen), or admitting you are wrong (will never happen). So it's easier to keep the brain switched off and repeat the mantra.

And if as in this case the player is about to be delisted, it's even better. You must be right because the player has gone. Best possible outcome.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I agree totally. There's positive progress in watching our transition as a team without necessarily being part of the next big dance.

In order to have a shot at a flag, we probably need for a few things to happen -
A few of Horlin-Smith, Guthrie, Caddy and Thurlow to become genuine A-graders
A player of genuine quality to seize CHF
A fit ruckman in their prime (c'mon Monster! Failing that, Stanley?)
A replacement for one of our ageing tall defenders (Rivers and Lonergan).

I agree with all of these except the last one. Lonergan was in the AA squad, Rivers was quality this year and Taylor's still a gun. There's no reason any of them should drop off too much and even if they do a bit it'll still be the best group of key defenders in the league. Much more important is having small and medium defenders playing to standard and not having our midfield be smashed. Thurlow might be important there.

Caddy and Guthrie are the 2 we'd want to become stars. Then have Horlin-Smith improve and one of Thurlow, Hartman, McCarthy and Smedts really step up to that sort of level.

Our rucks look better. We've got 3 who are proven to be good when fit (Simpson, McIntosh and Clark) and 2 others who are competitive when fit (Vardy and Stanley). Blicavs should improve as well so we should definitely be better than we were against North. We've also got the possibility of a dominant forward line with Clark as well as Kersten, Walker, Brown and Stanley all being improved on this year.

I can see that everything you ask for is possible. But the chance of it all coming together at once looks unlikely.

 

[iameviljez]

I agree with all of these except the last one. Lonergan was in the AA squad, Rivers was quality this year and Taylor's still a gun. There's no reason any of them should drop off too much and even if they do a bit it'll still be the best group of key defenders in the league.

I disagree in that whilst Lonergan and Rivers are both relatively durable body types, they are both the wrong side of 30 and almost every footballer starts to lose that 1% when they hit that magical 3-0.

This is probably best evidenced in Brownlow history (and other media awards) - very, very few players over the age of 30 have ever taken home such items. GAJ should have done it this year, and the player before that was (I believe) Buckley. Some decline slower than others, but it's almost always there.

 

[iameviljez]

Very simple. Say it enough times, people will believe it. Especially if it confirms an existing prejudice.

I don't think Brown is soft in terms of physical confrontation, but he does lack confidence at AFL level and it shows with things like two-grabbing marks he'd swallow for brekkie at VFL level. That's a very different thing and I think we conflate the two.

 

[Partridge]

I don't think Brown is soft in terms of physical confrontation, but he does lack confidence at AFL level and it shows with things like two-grabbing marks he'd swallow for brekkie at VFL level. That's a very different thing and I think we conflate the two.

No doubt at all. Very, very, very well said.

 

[Willo_]

I don't think Brown is soft in terms of physical confrontation, but he does lack confidence at AFL level and it shows with things like two-grabbing marks he'd swallow for brekkie at VFL level. That's a very different thing and I think we conflate the two.

I'd agree, and the way he (and other kids) are yo - yo'd in and out of the team does them know good at all, I guess because we have been up for a while its difficult to get them in and give them a good run. The temptation is far to great to go the experienced safe option when they may not deserve it?

 

[Seeds]

No doom and gloom at all. But no, we are not a shot next year.

Meh I disagree. There are about 7 teams who are chance next year and we are one. Everyone completely underestimates the role that luck and injuries play in deciding premierships and for that matter just about everything in life. Its a major human fallacy. 2016 will be a different story though, no amount of luck will help us then.

 

[Seeds]

Ok, now trade period is over, we can revisit this thread.


I think as long as the talls stay relatively injury free, we will be ok here.


The problem will be again, our midfield. Too much left to Selwood to carry on his shoulders. Ideally, before the trade period we would like to have got an A grade inside mid or two but with Bundy gone as well we need more than that. So expect to get cleaned up in Clearances again.


Our starting line up is ok, SJ, Selwood, Caddy, Duncan, GHS, Stokes, Guthrie. The issue is the lack of rotations in there; it’s very shallow in experience and quality. We don’t have (for example) a Wines, Wingard or a Grey to rotate from the forward line to give our core group a chop out.


It gets worse when you factor in we lost some depth players in the mids like Hunt, Shredder and not too mention SJ and Stokes will be gone soon.


EVEN if we manage to snag Danger, it will only solve one part of the problem (Selwood on his own) . We will need Jensen, Lang and pick 10 to come on as well. I hope next year they will trade mostly mids, because we need asap if we are to actually win a flag in the next couple of years.


The good news is, this year showed us how if the deal is good enough, you can get just about any player to fill your needs. I hope Geelong has learned from this period and will take some solace into next one with a shopping cart and $$$$$ as 2015 has some big names in FA (btw please sign Hawkins asap)

you're missing Motlop. If he is fit he will play midfield and will be second to only Selwood.

 

[Seeds]

I agree totally. There's positive progress in watching our transition as a team without necessarily being part of the next big dance.

In order to have a shot at a flag, we probably need for a few things to happen -
A few of Horlin-Smith, Guthrie, Caddy and Thurlow to become genuine A-graders
A player of genuine quality to seize CHF
A fit ruckman in their prime (c'mon Monster! Failing that, Stanley?)
A replacement for one of our ageing tall defenders (Rivers and Lonergan).

yes on the first three. But don't need the last one for next year. That's more important for post 2015. I would also add a better run with injuries leading into finals is another condition.

 

[dazbroncos]

Yeah but what about Kersten and Walker fitting into the forward line as well with Stanley and Clark coming in?

Surprised one of them haven't asked for a trade for opportunity.

Walker was a rookie coming in and has had to fight uphill all the time but is till being given chances.

Kersten had a high pedigree but has been hurt - even through his 9 games. The first 5 were good but he tired badly and was hurt the last 4 leaveing plenty to be desired.

I see a clean preseason will have them both pushing hard for selection. As for Clark and Stanley, Kersten is more a #3 forward. Walker is the spot id be thinking is more competition - but given Clark and Stanley aren't 22 games a year players of late, id say he'll still see time.

GO Catters

 

[iameviljez]

you're missing Motlop. If he is fit he will play midfield and will be second to only Selwood.

Would be great if he laid more tackles.

 

[Seeds]

d

Would be great if he laid more tackles.

did we say the same about Ablett junior?? every player has their weakpoints.

 

[DanA]

you're missing Motlop. If he is fit he will play midfield and will be second to only Selwood.

Rarely at centre bounces though IMO. He'll play midfield as a winger or HFF and may well be our 2nd best playeR but he's not an inside midfielder which I think was what he was getting out. I wouldn't put Duncan in as an inside midfielder either. IMO it'll be Selwood, S.J Caddy, Guthrie, Kelly, GHS with a few others as part timers but still I reckon we need another extractor or two cause they tend to take a lot of hits and get injured.

 

[walhawk]

The problem for Cats (& Freo/Swans) is that their core stars are the same age as Hawthorn's, and when we drop off in 2016/17, the Cats will too (and Pav, McPharlin, Sandi / Goodes, Richards, will be long gone for Freo/Swans).
Port, GC, GWS will snag a few flags after that before any of the rest of us have a chance to get back up there, so the Cats & Hawks have done the right thing by topping up for 2015.
It will be sad day for both our clubs not to be in Premiership contention.
That is part of what has made our games so great since 2008. It is not just the curse thing, our games have really mattered in the context of each season's premiership.
Hawthorn v Geelong 2008 - 2014 has been the peak of AFL football of the last 20 years and let's hope it can continue even if one or both of us drops off.

 

[Claude Balls]

Meh I disagree. There are about 7 teams who are chance next year and we are one. Everyone completely underestimates the role that luck and injuries play in deciding premierships and for that matter just about everything in life. Its a major human fallacy. 2016 will be a different story though, no amount of luck will help us then.

I look at it this way: we would need considerably better luck than some, with regards to luck and injuries, to take home the flag.

 

[cats_09]

d
did we say the same about Ablett junior?? every player has their weakpoints.

2 years ago when Motlop broke into our best 22 he ave 2.4 tackles per game - it dropped to 1.9 last year & 1.6 this year. When you consider that the only best 22 player this year who ave less tackles per game then Motlop was Hawkins with 1.3 it puts into perspective how poor his tackling effort was this year. Thurlow with 1.5 & Smedts with 1.3 are the only other 2 guys to play more then 5 games, to ave less tackles and both played 6 matches with times as being either sub or subbed off - Motlop ranked 29 of 32 players with 5+ games this year.

Ablett Jnr in his worse career season (happened to be his 1st season) ave 2.1 tackles per game; his next worse season in his career he ave 3.1 in 2006 and has a career ave of 4.2. I would be happy for Motlop (or any player to make the upward trend during their career that Ablett has)

I commented on Motlop's tackling or lack there-off during the season and how he works his butt off when we have the ball, but there was almost a disinterest when we didn't and he would rather defend space then man up on a player. His output towards the end of the season may be attributed to his knee not being 100%, but he was also inconsistent when he first returned. I hope this is an area of his game that the coaches work with him during the pre-season and we see improvement from him in next season.

 

[Bobby_]

The problem for Cats (& Freo/Swans) is that their core stars are the same age as Hawthorn's, and when we drop off in 2016/17, the Cats will too (and Pav, McPharlin, Sandi / Goodes, Richards, will be long gone for Freo/Swans).
Port, GC, GWS will snag a few flags after that before any of the rest of us have a chance to get back up there, so the Cats & Hawks have done the right thing by topping up for 2015.

difference is, Geelong bgean the re-building process very gradually since the new coach came in 2011.
The following players will feature for us in round 1, 2015 as they are in the best 22 . . . Blicavs, Horlin-Smith, Kersten, Guthrie, Thurlow, Vardy, Murdoch while Walker, Bews, McCarthy, Smedts are also on the cusp.
Lang, Hartman, Cowan will likely get upwards of 5-10 games as well.

If you have a look at Hawthorn's squad, since 2011, only the likes of Puopolo, Smith, Langford, Breust, Ceglar and Duryea are in the best 22.
Grimley, O'Brien, Litherland, Hartung and Woodward are in the same boat as Geelong's last three.

Basically put, we are already a year ahead of Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney and this is why our recent finals performances have been sub-par as we have a lot of players aged 24 & under out there in comparison to those other three.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

Rarely at centre bounces though IMO. He'll play midfield as a winger or HFF and may well be our 2nd best playeR but he's not an inside midfielder which I think was what he was getting out. I wouldn't put Duncan in as an inside midfielder either. IMO it'll be Selwood, S.J Caddy, Guthrie, Kelly, GHS with a few others as part timers but still I reckon we need another extractor or two cause they tend to take a lot of hits and get injured.

Would love to see Darcy Lang play a lot of games next season and be the difference. He looked pretty comfortable at AFL level already when he played this year.

Would be good to see some of the big bodied young guys get a run in the midfield too, like Jansen or Toohey. Actually I'm pretty interested to see how Toohey goes when he is AFL ready.

I think with Christensen gone and SJ aging, improvement from Guthrie and Caddy could be the key to more clearances. Guthrie shuts down players well but in my opinion in the next season or two he will become far too good to be wasted tagging. Might be already...

 

[walhawk]

difference is, Geelong bgean the re-building process very gradually since the new coach came in 2011.
The following players will feature for us in round 1, 2015 as they are in the best 22 . . . Blicavs, Horlin-Smith, Kersten, Guthrie, Thurlow, Vardy, Murdoch while Walker, Bews, McCarthy, Smedts are also on the cusp.
Lang, Hartman, Cowan will likely get upwards of 5-10 games as well.

If you have a look at Hawthorn's squad, since 2011, only the likes of Puopolo, Smith, Langford, Breust, Ceglar and Duryea are in the best 22.
Grimley, O'Brien, Litherland, Hartung and Woodward are in the same boat as Geelong's last three.

Basically put, we are already a year ahead of Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney and this is why our recent finals performances have been sub-par as we have a lot of players aged 24 & under out there in comparison to those other three.

No stars in any of the Hawks or Cats you listed. Both clubs will lose 4 of their six best players in the next year or two. Champions who cannot be replaced.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

No stars in any of the Hawks or Cats you listed. Both clubs will lose 4 of their six best players in the next year or two. Champions who cannot be replaced.

Some good mids available come end of next year, I expect Hawks will do their usual and top up brilliantly, I don't think you guys will really fall at all.

 

[Daniel McL]

A lot of stuff has to go right, as it does for all clubs, in order for us to win the 2015 Flag.

The Guys Who COULD Have Breakout Years:

Guthrie - If he loses the tagging role I think he is our best chance of having a breakout year, his 33 touches against Hawthorn when not having to tag showed he can accumulate lots of the ball if focused solely on winning the ball.

Horlin-Smith - Needs to add bulk & fitness like a lot of the younger guys who slowed down towards the end of the year, I still think he had a pretty good year & the time he was given in the centre bounces will definitely prove beneficial in the future.

Caddy - Probably would have been this year if not for the foot injury, started year on fire & ended the year on fire. Doesn't really need to add bulk but just continue improving his fitness, can definitely see 2015 being Caddy's breakout year (He'll be in my Supercoach team Round 1 )

Blicavs - Think it's more gradual with Blitz but just his decision making, think we could start developing him as a KPD with me thinking we'll play Stanley as that 2nd Ruck.

Kersten - Playing as that 3rd Forward will really help Kersten! Could have a Menzel 2011 year playing in that position. Obviously needs to build fitness but think 2015 could be a great year for Kersten!

Walker - Just depends if he is given enough chances with more competition for his spot. Could we develop him as a KPD? Has he done any defence work in VFL?

Thurlow - Should have been given more games in 2014 but think he will definitely be given more games in 2015. While he didn't have a great finals campaign he had a great finish to the H&A season. Can see him playing a lot of half back / wing next year.

Bews - Don't think he will have a massive breakout year but as long as he is given enough games he will do well in that small shut-down defence role.

McCarthy - Just needs to kick his first AFL goal & then think more & more will start coming. If he has a full pre-season he will add fitness so he can add that pressure in the Forward 50 for longer. I'm a fan of his!

Now if two of those guys have breakout years in 2015 it will go a long way to us winning the Premiership. The senior guys still need to continue playing their role while hopefully not slowing down too much. A Full pre-season especially will help Stevie J & Mackie in 2015 while the others just need to continue working hard. Also we obviously need luck with injuries, think Clark, McIntosh & Simpson are the big ones in terms of impact they can have for our team in 2015. Vardy is also a big one but with Stanley coming in he could play Vardy's role if Vardz goes down. Same with Menzel as we're not expecting him to have a big AFL impact given how long he's been out.

Still very excited for 2015!
Menzel & Vardy's returns
Lang & Jansen given more chances
Clark & Stanley inclusions

 

[iameviljez]

d
did we say the same about Ablett junior?? every player has their weakpoints.

Other might have, but I didn't. Besides - Ablett lays many, many more tackles than Motlop.

Take for example, 2003-06, when Ablett still played foward - he laid between 65 and 90 tackles per year. In Motlop's *best* tackling year, 2012, he laid 52 tackles - and all this in an era where tackling rates are well beyond what they were in 03-06.

Don't get me wrong, we are better with Motlop than without, but he doesn't put enough in without the footy and it really hurts a team to have to carry a player defensively in the modern game.

Tackling isn't just a skill, it's also about having the pride and the tank to run both ways and Motlop (given his preseasons as well, to be fair) does not have that yet.

 

[iameviljez]

2 years ago when Motlop broke into our best 22 he ave 2.4 tackles per game - it dropped to 1.9 last year & 1.6 this year. When you consider that the only best 22 player this year who ave less tackles per game then Motlop was Hawkins with 1.3 it puts into perspective how poor his tackling effort was this year. Thurlow with 1.5 & Smedts with 1.3 are the only other 2 guys to play more then 5 games, to ave less tackles and both played 6 matches with times as being either sub or subbed off - Motlop ranked 29 of 32 players with 5+ games this year.

Ablett Jnr in his worse career season (happened to be his 1st season) ave 2.1 tackles per game; his next worse season in his career he ave 3.1 in 2006 and has a career ave of 4.2. I would be happy for Motlop (or any player to make the upward trend during their career that Ablett has)

I commented on Motlop's tackling or lack there-off during the season and how he works his butt off when we have the ball, but there was almost a disinterest when we didn't and he would rather defend space then man up on a player. His output towards the end of the season may be attributed to his knee not being 100%, but he was also inconsistent when he first returned. I hope this is an area of his game that the coaches work with him during the pre-season and we see improvement from him in next season.

Ah sorry I didn't see your reply before contributing mine. Anyway, bang on the money.

The other thing with Motlop is being so agile and explosive, he could be as good at locking the ball in forward fifty as Varcoe or Rioli, but he's not.

 

[Vdubs]

Its interesting, i constantly see Brown labeled as soft.
I tend to disagree, watching him this year on several occasions I saw him flying into a pack trying to take a mark. So I don't see him as soft I more see him as maybe not having the physical capabilities to impact that type of contest... he is still slight, he can fly into packs but against bigger guys he generally won't win

and just to have a drive by... the 2 softest players I have seen currently are Pearce from Freo and Suckling from the Hawks, I saw a hawks fan say Suckling would run from his own shadow and that is the most perfect description I have ever seen for both of them!

I have a ? about calling any player soft.
Soft is not compatible with AFL football.
Being lean and light weight is NOT soft.
Brown showed a huge amount of courage time after time. That he still wants to play after all his injuries and kicks in the gut shows significant intestinal fortitude!

 

[Teriyakicat]

Our starting line up is ok, SJ, Selwood, Caddy, Duncan, GHS, Stokes, Guthrie. The issue is the lack of rotations in there; it’s very shallow in experience and quality. We don’t have (for example) a Wines, Wingard or a Grey to rotate from the forward line to give our core group a chop out.


It gets worse when you factor in we lost some depth players in the mids like Hunt, Shredder and not too mention SJ and Stokes will be gone soon.


EVEN if we manage to snag Danger, it will only solve one part of the problem (Selwood on his own) . We will need Jensen, Lang and pick 10 to come on as well. I hope next year they will trade mostly mids, because we need asap if we are to actually win a flag in the next couple of years.

I'm not too worried about the bolded- Schroder contributed no games, Hunt and Sheringham 7 each and Stringer 4. With a fit Motlop and Caddy, there's about 10 of those games covered. Bews, Lang, Hartman- at least another 10 games there.... The loss of each player gives opportunity to another and I'm really looking forward to what the new young mids are going to bring to the game next year.