Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2013 - A Phantom Draft

[Chris25]

Hourigan would be a good fit for us at CHF I reckon. We don't need a big 200cm bloke with Vickery and Riewoldt there as well as McBean killing it at VFL level.

Yeah, it's teams like Richmond who should be all over these 190cm guys. Melbourne, GWS and even Sydney would be others, what their decent group of 193-200cm forwards. Dallas Willsmore would be a good fit for the Tigers, big improvement over Aaron Edwards.

Interested to see the midfield rankings! top 10 maybe?

I'll give it a shot, but it's hard to compare different types against each other. How do you compare Josh Kelly to Lewis Taylor to Marcus Bontempelli? They're all so different. I will get around to it though, as well as the ruckmen and some lesser known KPPs to watch.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Be interesting to see where you rank Lewy Taylor. Gun player at this level, doesn't have a lot of room for improvement though I feel.

 

[Chris25]

Sticking with the talls, it's time to look at the giants of the draft. Does seem like teams are preferring to take ruckmen in the rookie draft, and are tending to look at the more mature types too. But there are still some to look at in the Championships...

1. Darcy Cameron
2. Peter Steffe
3. Toby Nankervis
4. Scott Jones
5. Michael Apeness
6. Jack Leslie

I have no idea where to rank the ruckmen to tell you the truth. I do think Cameron is the clear standout, but the next 5 could be listed anywhere. Cameron isn't at the level of Grundy from last year, and since he slipped so far I have no real idea as to where Darcy might go. You could make a case for him in the 15-25 range, but maybe he lasts until 40-50? Has a bit of the Zac Clarke's to him - athletic, but a strong mark. He should suit the modern game quite well, which is why he is my #1.

As for the rest, I tried to rank them depending on whether I see them being a genuine ruckman or if they are a part timer/role player. And that's why I have Steffe ahead of Nankervis, despite what the big Tasmanian has shown in the Championships. He is older and bigger than a lot of his competition, and I'm not sure if he is a true forward option - despite his showing against the miniature NT side. But he has moved himself up from a possible rookie chance to a genuine national draft chance in my mind, so he is doing everything right.

Steffe is a very good tap ruckman, but he will be a long term player and as such probably wont get taken until the rookie draft. Has minimal impact around the ground, although he has improved this season. The same can probably be said about Jones and Leslie too. And rounding out the list is the big forward/ruckman Apeness. His best chance is probably in a bottom ranked team, where he can rotate through the forward line and ruck - bit like a Sellar or O'hAilpin. Not entirely convinced there is anything more to his game than pure strength.

In terms of the mature guys, I feel like the best were taken last year with both Currie and Hannath. But big Peter Nelson is one player from the SANFL to look at.

 

[tigs2010]

In terms of the mature guys, I feel like the best were taken last year with both Currie and Hannath. But big Peter Nelson is one player from the SANFL to look at.

What about Sikora? Seems to have some tools and is a great size. For the younger guys, Milhan looked ok to me. Wasn't afraid to get down and dirty which was impressive seems it's a long way down.

 

[Nemisis]

Mitch Harvey as Ports first pick?! That's a big call - I love him but... Port do need him - I am not convinced Butcher will make AFL.
I would put up Robbie Gray for trade - I can hear the abuse now but - he could get Port a top 25 pick.

 

[Ethicz]

I'll give it a shot, but it's hard to compare different types against each other. How do you compare Josh Kelly to Lewis Taylor to Marcus Bontempelli? They're all so different. I will get around to it though, as well as the ruckmen and some lesser known KPPs to watch.

Yeah it's a tough gig. Maybe power rankings and an inside outside list? Appreciate the work you put in to keep us informed.

 

[Chris25]

Mitch Harvey as Ports first pick?! That's a big call - I love him but... Port do need him - I am not convinced Butcher will make AFL.
I would put up Robbie Gray for trade - I can hear the abuse now but - he could get Port a top 25 pick.

It all depends on where Port Adelaide finish. I'd say Harvey has possibly worked his way up to become an early second round pick. But if Port continue playing the way they are, and Harvey keeps kicking goals, then he might not be on the board when Port next pick. Trading would be an idea too, maybe even using Butcher to upgrade a pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Nathan Freeman still in the 3rd round?
I rate him as the best midfielder in the draft. He's freakishly powerful but then explosive in traffic. Has all the tricks and has the ability to not only be a part of a midfield but be a feature player in a midfield and completely take over games at the next level.

Sheed at 17? He's a clear top 5 mid in my mind and could become one of the 2-3 better mids in this draft. Certainly the best performed through the champs. Still not impressed? He uses it so well, wins it inside and outside. Can go forward and kick goals. I'd happily take him anywhere from around pick 5.

Mitchell Harvey being a South Australian I'm really surprised to see so low. One of the most skilled key forwards going around and so good at ground level. I like him a lot. In my view after Boyd until we see Conlon he's the second best key forward in this draft.

Garlett still inside the top 10 yet Josh Kelly isn't? Kelly is a sure thing and while I wouldn't be picking him top 10 he's a consensus top 5 selection with Garlett probably slipping into the second round. West Coast from everyone I talk to have zero interest in Garlett as good a fit as he would be.

Otherwise great work and I look forward to your future updates.

 

[Lach72]

That Darcy Hourigan just looks like a footballer. Hard body and a good mover.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I reckon Boyd, Scharenberg and Aish are certainties to fill 3 of the top 4 draft spots.

It gets interesting after that.

We might end up snagging Luke for a 2nd round pick.

 

[Chris25]

This is still technically my pre-Championships draft, so a lot will change. At the moment, all I'm doing is adding profiles rather than changing the order. It will be completely different in a couple of days. For example, the post just before yours I mentioned that I have Harvey in the 10-25 range whereas before the Championships I was trying to contain the hype to a degree.

Just as a little sneak preview, Josh Kelly would be at #4 if I were to update today. Garlett would still be top 10. Sheed would move up a little, but still be closer to 15 than 5. And Freeman would be sitting alongside Sheed in the middle of the first round.

 

[tigs2010]

This is still technically my pre-Championships draft, so a lot will change. At the moment, all I'm doing is adding profiles rather than changing the order. It will be completely different in a couple of days. For example, the post just before yours I mentioned that I have Harvey in the 10-25 range whereas before the Championships I was trying to contain the hype to a degree.

Just as a little sneak preview, Josh Kelly would be at #4 if I were to update today. Garlett would still be top 10. Sheed would move up a little, but still be closer to 15 than 5. And Freeman would be sitting alongside Sheed in the middle of the first round.

Look forward to the update. Is Freeman injured by the way?

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

This is still technically my pre-Championships draft, so a lot will change. At the moment, all I'm doing is adding profiles rather than changing the order. It will be completely different in a couple of days. For example, the post just before yours I mentioned that I have Harvey in the 10-25 range whereas before the Championships I was trying to contain the hype to a degree.

Just as a little sneak preview, Josh Kelly would be at #4 if I were to update today. Garlett would still be top 10. Sheed would move up a little, but still be closer to 15 than 5. And Freeman would be sitting alongside Sheed in the middle of the first round.

Just out of interest Chris, I'm a big fan of Aish - saw him last year at the Champs and watched the Norwood GF on iView.

I know you don't think he's had a down Championships, but he's not dominating as I hoped he would (maybe unrealistically due to his injuries)

So a couple of questions, does his Champs form really mean anything considering what he's shown previously and given he'll play senior footy afterwards as well (not unlike Jake Stringer in that regard)?

And if it means something, would Scharenberg or Kelly be better choices?

Scharenberg is a gun player, but for Melbourne I'd be really hesitant in picking him because we've got most keys covered and he isn't a proven mid yet from what I've seen - so I'm not sure what to make of that, even if GWS takes Aish with pick 1 for example (if we avoid the spoon).

 

[Chris25]

The main thing with Aish will just be the fact that he has gotten through the Championships fit and healthy. His whole season was managed with the view of getting him up for this month, but he did come straight in with no games under his belt. Had a near BOG performance against Queensland in the second round, and even against Metro he still had 16 touches. And as much as people say there is no tagging in the U18s, Aish is getting very close attention so it's not being made easy.

Whether form means much is a tough question, because it depends on the player. For someone like Aish, who has played so well at league level over the last 18 months then it wouldn't be a big concern. Recruiters will know what he brings to the table, and it's more about whether he is at full fitness.

Whereas, form is a big factor for players with question marks on them. Take Dom Sheed for example. He has shown that he can win the ball against better opposition, despite people saying he is on the slow side. And more importantly, he has proved he can be dangerous going forward. So his form has gone a long way to really cementing his position in the top 20. Whereas, a (relatively) quiet Championships now has people suggesting Luke McDonald may be available to North in the second round.

If you've got the runs on the board, then form doesn't really mean all that much. Unlike in cricket, where they should just piss Watson and Warner off until they can actually score a couple of runs.

 

[Chris25]

Finished the draft profiles for the South Australians, all 19 of them. Am I being a bit optimistic?

 

[GrandBlue]

Think Cameron McCarthy still get drafted after breaking his leg?

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Think Cameron McCarthy still get drafted after breaking his leg?

Yeah, surely someone will use a mid-late range pick on a tall who can pluck the ball like him - KPPs take time anyway.

 

[GrandBlue]

Yeah, surely someone will use a mid-late range pick on a tall who can pluck the ball like him - KPPs take time anyway.

Hard to think a guy like him will ever be the same after a horrible injury like that. Damn shame as well, he looked like a gun.

 

[Mr_Catt]

Read your opening list. Interesting read.

Your fascination with S.A based players is to be admired. But you have grossly exaggerated the positions and standings of certain players. Seems like you look at them in rosé coloured eyes.

Overall I think this draft is a B grade draft. I base the B rating on the fact that other than the to 3, the rest of the top 4-20 aren't what I would could outstanding fail safe bets. That's not to say none of them will make the grade/ be A-graders at AFL level, quite the opposite. But there are going to be players picked in this years top 10 that won't love up to the hype suggested perhaps leading into the draft.

However, as a result of this uncertainty, there are going to be some immensely talent players taken in the 2nd+ rounds of the draft that in other years wouldn't have a) fallen through, or b) been simply available due to depth. There is going to be serious value.

Dunstan is a c Grade AFL inside midfielder - Nathan Jones except taller. He'll be a midfield good rotation player at AFL, but I wouldn't be pinning my hopes on him being your a-grade type.

Hourigan is this years Jordan Lisle. There is no way he is going in the first round of the draft. He'll probably get drafted/ at least rookied from pure 'weight' (pardon the pun) of performances, but he isn't a first, second or third round selection. He is 190, is slow and has poor agility. Not what you want from a first round selection. He's a beautiful kick, has nice hands and leads up nice and strong for a forward. But what role does he play at AFL? Too small for KPP, too slow for 3rd tall/ flank. Needs to turn himself into a defender to make it - think Shannon hurn. Not the player you've pumped him up to be Chris.

Cameron Giles is a good mover for a big guy. No doubt, uses it quite well also. If he could defend he'd be an even better player. If I am drafting a key defender, I want him to first an foremost be able to defend. Having said that he has enough decent upside to suggest he could work on his body work/ defending both aerially and on the lead. If any of the teams had a power forward who was good in front of his face (full extension lead up and catch), he would struggle. One on one, I suspect his body positioning wouldn't be great. Fortunate thing for cam is that there isn't many players good/ capable
Of defending at this level - it is something that is generally taught and mastered under strict coaching. He has the potential to be the defender chris has made him out to be, albeit I would wait until the end of second round/ start of third to pull the trigger, depending on need.

I liked Riley Knight alot. Not a lot of hype around him, but from his performance today he presents as a tidy medium sized flanker who uses it okay and moves well.

Lemmens is a lemon and the fact he is mentioned at all is a joke. He is an average player an wont get drafted.

Pitt is an average undersized defender. He doesn't kick it well, he doesn't accumulate as a rebounding defender an he doesn't defend that well. He is a decent body and catch/ over head mark which is probably his strength, but at AFL he is a 3rd tall defender/ half back at best.

You didn't mention Orazio Fantasia - quiet today but his form though out the champs has been excellent and ticks all boxes athletically. Exactly the type I mentioned earlier that could slip through quite late ish but still end up very good at AFL level.

Mitch Harvey will go much earlier than where you have him ranked.
Very nice lead up and catch player with decent movement, and a very nice set shot for goal. Needs to work on intensity and ethic but if he fixes that up he could end up being a tidy AFL player.

 

[Chris25]

Guess we'll agree to disagree on the South Australians. And while I admit to hyping up the local boys (because nobody else does) I feel I am reasonably realistic too. Take Luke Dunstan for example, I haven't made him out to be a superstar like you suggest. Knightmare has him at #9 in his power rankings, my post Championships mock will have him at #23. And in terms of Cameron Giles, potential and athleticism is a large reason why I rate him highly - not because he is an unstoppable defender at the moment, although he did do quite well in the Championships. And your analysis of Jake Pitt suggests you hadn't seen him play before this last month, because playing in the back lines was an entirely new task for him so of course he wasn't going to dominating his opponents. While for a lemon, Sean Lemmens certainly did rack up the touches across half back.

I've long said that my drafts are more about getting names out then anything else, it's not supposed to be a prediction of what will happen. And since there are more Victorian draft watchers than South Australians, yes I do put more of an emphasis on them. Nothing wrong with looking for the best in players.

Think Cameron McCarthy still get drafted after breaking his leg?

Doesn't really change my thoughts. I have him in the 15-35 range, and I'd still be picking him then. If the reports are true and it's his fibula, then it's a completely different kettle of fish to say what Stringer, Barlow or Brown faced. Still bad, but nowhere near as serious.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Saints priority surely needs to be midfielders ( apart from a ready to go full back that they wont find in this draft).
But I agree that if Boyd was still there for their pick they'd be foolish not to take it.
But I couldn't possibly see them wanting Kolodjashnij as a second rounder.
They are flush with tall utility's and undersize key players.
For the same reason I'm not sure they'd go with Scharenberg if Boyd is not available for their first pick.

 

[paul scholes]

Just a few thoughts . South Aussie kids were super impressive for mine.
Chris, your thoughts on Luke Reynolds ? Reminded me so much of Lucas it wasn't funny.

 

[anditsadraw69]

Read your opening list. Interesting read.



Dunstan is a c Grade AFL inside midfielder - Nathan Jones except taller. He'll be a midfield good rotation player at AFL, but I wouldn't be pinning my hopes on him being your a-grade type.

.

If you think Nathan Jones is a C grade inside midfielder, you have no idea mate.

 

[Nemisis]

If you think Nathan Jones is a C grade inside midfielder, you have no idea mate.

Agree - Jones is a quality player -

 

[aussierulesrules]

To me Dunstan looks like potentially a left footed version of Adelaide's Scott Thompson.