Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2014

[AsterixTheGaul]

Otherwise, I could see Melbourne going for the pure leadership that Lever offers - and he doubles as a defensive option as well as possible midfield impact. He looks a 10 year player, and would balance the attacking style of Sam Frost quite well. I just think he'd be the better long term investment, given Jesse Hogan as well as the likes of Dawes, Watts and the ruckmen up forward.

Chris - well done on highlighting the desperate need that Melbourne have in leadership and taking Lever. Most mocks have McCartin at 3 and IMO that is not what they need. McCartin is a FF BUT they already have Hogan and Dawes. Lever would strengthen their spine and I suspect we will be saying he was like Joel Selwood and the injury prior to the draft saw him discounted too heavily. Brayshaw and Lever as 2 and 3 would make a strong statement on the value of Leaders at Melbourne and Roos places high importance in that area.

Alternate choice for Melbourne at 3 should be Wright. His versatility is being overlooked at present and Melbourne are not blessed with ruck stocks. Dawes does not like it (one of the reasons for splitting with Pies) and Hogan is not great in the ruck and I suspect Melbourne will want to manage his back for the next 3 years. So McCartin is possibly a better pure forward and will possibly be ready to play in 2015 but Best Available in an even draft is over-rated.

 

[Steele7]

Hey Chris, A player on the AFL Draft Machine smokey is
Jermaine Miller- Lewis from Sth Freo. Do you know much about him. Looks good for a rookie for the Roos.

 

[Toadvine]

Hey mate, you don’t happen to have a profile for Ellis do you? All the rumours seem to be pointing towards us taking him with our 1st. I saw you rated him the 6th best mid in the draft so I’m keen to read your analysis.

 

[thetank]

Chris - well done on highlighting the desperate need that Melbourne have in leadership and taking Lever. Most mocks have McCartin at 3 and IMO that is not what they need. McCartin is a FF BUT they already have Hogan and Dawes. Lever would strengthen their spine and I suspect we will be saying he was like Joel Selwood and the injury prior to the draft saw him discounted too heavily. Brayshaw and Lever as 2 and 3 would make a strong statement on the value of Leaders at Melbourne and Roos places high importance in that area.

Melbourne have already got too many tall defenders - McDonald, Dunn, Frost, Garland. They don't need another one, at least not with the 3rd pick overall.

Dawes is a C-grade KPF. McCartin has far better potential, an A-grade candidate. Of course if there was another elite midfielder available then that would take priority, however there isn't so McCartin it is. Skipping McCartin for Lever because Dawes is around would be akin to Hawks skipping say Roughead for a Michael Hurley-style player - it makes no sense.

Leadership isn't a problem at Melbourne, it is having and developing decent players. All the leadership in the world wouldn't do anything for the lousy players over the past 6-8 seasons.

Alternate choice for Melbourne at 3 should be Wright. His versatility is being overlooked at present and Melbourne are not blessed with ruck stocks. Dawes does not like it (one of the reasons for splitting with Pies) and Hogan is not great in the ruck and I suspect Melbourne will want to manage his back for the next 3 years. So McCartin is possibly a better pure forward and will possibly be ready to play in 2015 but Best Available in an even draft is over-rated.

McCartin is probably considered a better chance of succeeding as a KPF, so McCartin it is.

Wright is an interesting prospect, however the rucking ability isn't that important:
1. Wright won't be playing much ruck, you don't send a thoroughbred to do a ploughhorse's work;
2. Rucks take 6-8 years before they become useful; and
3. Mature rucks can be found on the cheap.

Also, taking Wright doesn't actually solve Melbourne's ruck problem...unless they take him with the intention of grooming him for No. 1 ruckman - in which case he is overs at Pick 3 (at least with regards to modern drafting trends).

 

[Taylor]

Leadership isn't a problem at Melbourne, it is having and developing decent players. All the leadership in the world wouldn't do anything for the lousy players over the past 6-8 seasons.

You do understand that the two are two sides of the same coin, right? Strong leadership motivates and demands results from their team mates, encouraging and driving effort in preparation and recovery.

Soft leadership allows guys to go out for a beer on the day off, soft leadership allows guys to skip that last rep in the gym.

A group of focused, motivated and involved leaders will drag the rest of the side along with them. You want every player in the side looking over at his team mate and pushing him to be all he can be, not everyone looking forward and doing their routine, it just doesn't build elite results.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Leadership isn't a problem at Melbourne, it is having and developing decent players. All the leadership in the world wouldn't do anything for the lousy players over the past 6-8 seasons.

.

I can easily accept a different view of the KPP analysis but Leadership at Melbourne!

If Melbourne think their leadership is fine, then they will enjoy a long and prosperous time as cellar dwellers and we will be hearing them ask for an annual priority picks for years to come.

If you had a Luke Hodge at Melbourne, would you be seeing Jack Watts (pick 1 2008) running around not knowing what to do? Would Tom Sculley (pick 1 2009) have been as tempted to move to Sydney? Would you be trying to off-load Jack Trengove (pick 2 2009) to Richmond? Would Frawley still be with you? Jones is good on the field but from when I watch him, he is a leader of stats, not of men.

I suggest Melbourne are in a hole and need to get out of it. Hogan is talented but not has not shown any leadership. Some hope with Jack Viney but you certainly missed a call when you went Toumpas and let Wines slip. Viney and Wines are best mates and you would have had another year of strong leaders. Leadership is accelerated when in partnership and not by a single person. McCartin is a leading full forward!

 

[thetank]

I can easily accept a different view of the KPP analysis but Leadership at Melbourne!

If Melbourne think their leadership is fine, then they will enjoy a long and prosperous time as cellar dwellers and we will be hearing them ask for an annual priority picks for years to come.

Luke Hodge would not have made much of a difference at Melbourne (as a leader) - the team would still be terrible. Leadership is only the icing on the cake - players need to be excellent footballers first and foremost. Leadership comes much later.

Put Luke Hodge in GWS' 1st year side, do you think they would have won many more games? Unlikely...and to be honest, Melbourne have been GWS-grade for the past few seasons, and it has less to do with the leadership from the club captains, and more with poor development.

Look at the great Nick Riewoldt...excellent captain but how does the club go with a crap team around him?

If you had a Luke Hodge at Melbourne, would you be seeing Jack Watts (pick 1 2008) running around not knowing what to do? Would Tom Sculley (pick 1 2009) have been as tempted to move to Sydney? Would you be trying to off-load Jack Trengove (pick 2 2009) to Richmond? Would Frawley still be with you? Jones is good on the field but from when I watch him, he is a leader of stats, not of men.

Jack Watts running around - this is for coaches to team him, not the captain.

Tom Scully - of course Scully would still have moved to Sydney. Professional football is business, and Scully made a business decision - and a very good one actually, judging by how his career is panning out.

Trengove to Richmond - this is the football administration's decision, not Luke Hodge's. Besides, Richmond alleged approached Melbourne first, and Melbourne is obliged first and foremost to explore all options that may improve the team for the future. Any administration that does not explore all options is not doing its job properly.

Frawley - of course he would have left. You think Frawley would have stayed? He nicked off for premiership glory - well within his rights to do so.

I suggest Melbourne are in a hole and need to get out of it. Hogan is talented but not has not shown any leadership. Some hope with Jack Viney but you certainly missed a call when you went Toumpas and let Wines slip. Viney and Wines are best mates and you would have had another year of strong leaders. Leadership is accelerated when in partnership and not by a single person. McCartin is a leading full forward!

Hogan hasn't even played a game. I'll be happier if he gets to Roughead level, than if he becomes a great leader but a crap forward.

Viney - he has played 2 seasons.

Toumpas vs Wines - everyone has 100% vision in hindsight, but Toumpas was a fair selection at Pick 4 at the time. If you want to go down the hindsight route, then every team in the AFL (including Fremantle) cocked up because they missed Nat Fyfe with their first picks in the 2009 draft.

Melbourne needs high level talents to be developed properly, not Tom Harleys who are average footballers but good leaders. Nathan Jones is decent enough as a leader for now. Jake Lever is too high of an injury risk to be taken at Pick 3, especially when he does not represent a crucial need positionally. Give me Dustin Martin over Richie Vandenberg any day of the week.

 

[Derrick45]

Luke Hodge would not have made much of a difference at Melbourne (as a leader) - the team would still be terrible. Leadership is only the icing on the cake - players need to be excellent footballers first and foremost. Leadership comes much later.

Put Luke Hodge in GWS' 1st year side, do you think they would have won many more games? Unlikely...and to be honest, Melbourne have been GWS-grade for the past few seasons, and it has less to do with the leadership from the club captains, and more with poor development.

Look at the great Nick Riewoldt...excellent captain but how does the club go with a crap team around him?



Jack Watts running around - this is for coaches to team him, not the captain.

Tom Scully - of course Scully would still have moved to Sydney. Professional football is business, and Scully made a business decision - and a very good one actually, judging by how his career is panning out.

Trengove to Richmond - this is the football administration's decision, not Luke Hodge's. Besides, Richmond alleged approached Melbourne first, and Melbourne is obliged first and foremost to explore all options that may improve the team for the future. Any administration that does not explore all options is not doing its job properly.

Frawley - of course he would have left. You think Frawley would have stayed? He nicked off for premiership glory - well within his rights to do so.



Hogan hasn't even played a game. I'll be happier if he gets to Roughead level, than if he becomes a great leader but a crap forward.

Viney - he has played 2 seasons.

Toumpas vs Wines - everyone has 100% vision in hindsight, but Toumpas was a fair selection at Pick 4 at the time. If you want to go down the hindsight route, then every team in the AFL (including Fremantle) cocked up because they missed Nat Fyfe with their first picks in the 2009 draft.

Melbourne needs high level talents to be developed properly, not Tom Harleys who are average footballers but good leaders. Nathan Jones is decent enough as a leader for now. Jake Lever is too high of an injury risk to be taken at Pick 3, especially when he does not represent a crucial need positionally.

Melbourne don't see Lever as a key defender.

 

[thetank]

Melbourne don't see Lever as a key defender.

Most reports state that he is a key defender, that could pinch hit as a mid.

Melbourne already struggles with developing genuine midfielders into good midfielders, are they going to start developing centre half backs into ruck rovers?

 

[SugarCoat]

The latest talk is Melbourne favour Lever than McCartin because he has more strings to his game.

 

[thetank]

The latest talk is Melbourne favour Lever than McCartin because he has more strings to his game.

A ridiculous idea if it eventuates, Pick 3 on a guy who was injured for the whole of 2014, and is a key defender with some agility - crazy when there are more "safer" prospects available.

It's not as if Lever was the bona fide #1 talent in 2013 like Joel Selwood was in 2005/06 before he got injured.

BF would go into meltdown if Lever is taken at 3, and the recruiting agents better get it right if they take Lever because they will be out of a job if he either fails to injury, or if McCartin pans out well.

 

[Derrick45]

Most reports state that he is a key defender, that could pinch hit as a mid.

Melbourne already struggles with developing genuine midfielders into good midfielders, are they going to start developing centre half backs into ruck rovers?

Or maybe we just pick players who aren't up to it. Maybe they don't rate McCartin. Maybe they see a lot of Fyfe in Lever.

I'm happy to back in Roos and co on this one.

 

[Taylor]

Fyfe and Mundy were a half forward and a half back respectfully.

Both are prime extractors now.

 

[Drapatch]

Fyfe and Mundy were a half forward and a half back respectfully.

Both are prime extractors now.

Yes but both were also 2nd round picks

I wouldnt risk a pick 3 on a player changing roles or being injured for an entire season.
Sometimes you have to take the safe option and take risks with picks outside of the top 10

But Lever could be special and worthy of the risk... time will tell

 

[Demonheart]

I suggest Melbourne are in a hole and need to get out of it.

The force is strong with this one.

 

[Ian Dunross]

FWIW I see nothing elite in McCartin.

If the Saints picked him at 1 I would be disappointed.

Conversely everything I see & read about Lever tells me he is a gun. He reminds me of Luke Hodge.

I think any team would be significantly better w him in it. I'm not so sure the same can be said for McCartin.

For the record, I don't believe Selwood was ever regarded as the clear number 1 pick pre-injury concerns. Gibbs was always a pick 1 favourite. Dominating SANFL games gave him that mantle. He just went to a really s&#t club at the time. Whereas Selwood went to the best developing club in the country.

 

[thetank]

Fyfe and Mundy were a half forward and a half back respectfully.

Both are prime extractors now.

Jack Watts was a CHF once.

He's not a prime extractor now, nor is he a prime midfielder.

Successful conversions to full-time midfield are infrequent.

 

[thetank]

FWIW I see nothing elite in McCartin.

If the Saints picked him at 1 I would be disappointed.

Conversely everything I see & read about Lever tells me he is a gun. He reminds me of Luke Hodge.

I think any team would be significantly better w him in it. I'm not so sure the same can be said for McCartin.

All this Luke Hodge talk is nonsense. Hodge didn't enter the draft with a significant injury history, and was a low risk pick. Lever is a CHB, or rather, he was a CHB in 2013. Lever did nothing in 2014.

I couldn't care less about leadership with Pick 3, I just want a damn good footballer that is likely to play. Give me a team of 11 Dustin Martins and 11 Dane Swans and they will steamroll a team of 22 Tom Harleys. Give me a Gary Ablett Sr over Michael Tuck anyday.

Picks 2 & 3 are all about picking high quality with "low" risk (with risk obviously relative to football position). Remember, this isn't a mid-first round pick we're talking about gambling with, it is a prime pick.

McCartin sets up a dangerous forward punch for the next decade with Hogan. Lever either ends up a CHB, or a project that the Dees try to convert to a midfield...CHB is not required, and you trust the Dees to convert a CHB to a midfielder? High risk on so many levels, and risks that don't need to be taken.

For the record, I don't believe Selwood was ever regarded as the clear number 1 pick pre-injury concerns. Gibbs was always a pick 1 favourite. Dominating SANFL games gave him that mantle. He just went to a really s&#t club at the time. Whereas Selwood went to the best developing club in the country.

Selwood was a gun player, definitely. The only knocks on him were the knee, and average-level kicking. Hands, endurance, vision, strength, courage, "football IQ" and all other intangibles he was rated elite. In any case, it probably helped that he plopped into a team that was hitting its stride, with an average half-forward that unexpectedly became one of the best footballers of all time.

 

[Chris25]

Hey Chris, A player on the AFL Draft Machine smokey is
Jermaine Miller- Lewis from Sth Freo. Do you know much about him. Looks good for a rookie for the Roos.

Rookie draft is definitely right for Miller-Lewis. Not because of a lack of talent, but purely because he hasn't gotten on the park in the past two years. I'd be happy to take the punt on him, but it'll be later rather than earlier. He has good speed, skills and reads the play well. Just a natural footballer really. Suppose you'd have to compare him to other indigenous medium forwards like Sumner and Hartmann. Doesn't have the same build as them, but plenty of talent. Couple of years on the rookie list, get his body right and you could have a real player.

Hey mate, you don’t happen to have a profile for Ellis do you? All the rumours seem to be pointing towards us taking him with our 1st. I saw you rated him the 6th best mid in the draft so I’m keen to read your analysis.

Not yet, but I'll look to get one done soon. I rate him highly. Not sure why others are overlooking him. Maybe he isn't flashy enough? He has a much better contested game than he gets credit for, good skills and is a good athlete. Think he could easily develop along the lines of a Sidebottom or Zaharakis, maybe even get to a Hannebery level.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Watch Lever's tape. A lot of it is winning contested ball.

Tall kids get played in key positions in junior football because they're tall.

Bontompelli was played as a forward until his final year when he started to spend time in the middle.

 

[Chris25]

Just a small update to my draft, mainly a little reshuffling of the first round. The only real big change was Dillon Viojo-Rainbow going up, with the likes of Brenden Abbott and Josh Glenn dropping.

 

[MightyDons4]

Marchback AND Ahern.... I think I've found true love with this draft . If this happened and we got Jermaine Miller-Lewis/Caleb Daniel/Josh Deluca-Cardillo in the rookie draft sh*t would hit the fan (in a good way).

 

[yarm]

I

All this Luke Hodge talk is nonsense. Hodge didn't enter the draft with a significant injury history, and was a low risk pick. Lever is a CHB, or rather, he was a CHB in 2013. Lever did nothing in 2014.

I couldn't care less about leadership with Pick 3, I just want a damn good footballer that is likely to play. Give me a team of 11 Dustin Martins and 11 Dane Swans and they will steamroll a team of 22 Tom Harleys. Give me a Gary Ablett Sr over Michael Tuck anyday.

Picks 2 & 3 are all about picking high quality with "low" risk (with risk obviously relative to football position). Remember, this isn't a mid-first round pick we're talking about gambling with, it is a prime pick.

McCartin sets up a dangerous forward punch for the next decade with Hogan. Lever either ends up a CHB, or a project that the Dees try to convert to a midfield...CHB is not required, and you trust the Dees to convert a CHB to a midfielder? High risk on so many levels, and risks that don't need to be taken.



Selwood was a gun player, definitely. The only knocks on him were the knee, and average-level kicking. Hands, endurance, vision, strength, courage, "football IQ" and all other intangibles he was rated elite. In any case, it probably helped that he plopped into a team that was hitting its stride, with an average half-forward that unexpectedly became one of the best footballers of all time.

I will never understand how anyone could be in the top twenty if they haven't played an entire year!? Don't get it! Not ever!
Look at Dear. At least he's up there getting back into it. So explain it to me cause I'm lost with these picks. AND I WOULD LOVE TO HAVE SOME DRAMATIC SURPRISES! Now that would be some fun! Let's shake it up!

 

[Yoda_]

Why isn't Billy Frampton being spoken about more Chris?

For a raw 18 year old ruck men seems like he's got a few tricks to work with.


He and Rowan Marshall look to be likely rookie selections for a club wanting a developmental long term ruck men

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I couldn't care less about leadership with Pick 3, I just want a damn good footballer that is likely to play. Give me a team of 11 Dustin Martins and 11 Dane Swans and they will steamroll a team of 22 Tom Harleys. Give me a Gary Ablett Sr over Michael Tuck any day.

I wish you and the Dees all the best in the draft. Your approach is certainly different and it is interesting to see how others would like to go about recruiting. You start to help me fill in answers like why did they do this or how come.... Diversity is great for seeing how people make choices and then how they justify it.