Your club in 2014, according to Bigfooty

[GOAUS!]

Using the ladder prediction thread for next season (link here), we can get an idea if what Bigfooty reckons will happen next year. I have compiled the 146 ladders currently listed in the 2014 predictions thread and by by using similar methodology as Final Siren in his brilliant 2012 thread we get the following observations

2014 Bigfooty predicted ladder

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. North Melbourne
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Collingwood
8. Essendon
__________________

9. Port Adelaide
10. Adelaide
11. Carlton
12. Gold Coast
13. West Coast
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. Greater Western Sydney
18. St Kilda

Sure things
The following teams had the smallest standard deviation (variation) away from their average, this means there that people were fairly confident where these teams would finish. In decreasing order of confidence

1. St Kilda (predicted finish: 17th to 18th)
2. Greater Western Sydney (16th to 18th)
3. Fremantle (1st to 3rd)
4. Melbourne (14th to 17th)
5. Hawthorn (1st to 5th)
6. Sydney (1st to 5th)
7. Western Bulldogs (11th to 15th)
8. Brisbane (12th to 17th)
9. Gold Coast (9th to 13th)


Uncertain quantities
The following teams had the largest standard deviation (variation) away from their average, this means there that people were fairly uncertain where these teams would finish.
In increasing order of confidence

1. Essendon (predicted finish: 5th to 12th)
2. Carlton (7th to 13th)
3. Adelaide (7th to 13th)
4. Collingwood (5th to 10th)
5. West Coast (9th to 15th)
6. Port Adelaide (7th to 12th)
7. North Melbourne (3rd to 8th)
8. Richmond (4th to 8th)
9. Geelong (4th to 8th)

Number of ladders surveyed per club

Adelaide: 18
Brisbane: 16
Carlton: 15
Collingwood: 17
Essendon: 26
Fremantle: 12
Geelong: 13
Gold Coast: 2
Greater Western Sydney: 3
Hawthorn: 28
Melbourne: 9
North Melbourne: 22
Port Adelaide: 19
Richmond: 30
St Kilda: 7
Sydney: 18
West Coast: 13
Western Bulldogs: 16

I wouldn't be too confident on the question of do supporters over-rate their own club question for Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney.

Do supporters over-rate the team that they support?

Yes they do. The supporters of each club rate their club on the ladder above what the rest of Bigfooty does.


The optimism ladder

In order from most optimistic to least optimistic (based on the number of standard deviations away from the rest of Bigfooty average for that particular club)

1. Greater Western Sydney*
2. Brisbane
3. Carlton
4. Melbourne
5. Port Adelaide
6. Adelaide
7. Essendon
8. Western Bulldogs
9. West Coast
10. Richmond
11. Collingwood
12. Geelong
13. Sydney
14. Gold Coast*
15. St Kilda
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. Fremantle

*Would need some more ladders from this group of supporters to have any degree of confidence on their place in the optimism ladder.

NB: Even Fremantle supporters expect the Dockers to finish 0.2 spots above where the other supporters have them, West Coast supporters rank themselves 2.4 spots higher that the rest of Bigfooty, whilst Brisbane supporters rank themselves 3.7 spots higher than the rest of Bigfooty on average, this doesn't mean that these Brisbane supporters are delusional necessarily though just that they don't agree on average with the rest of the forum members.

Statistical Methodology (The 2014 Bigfooty predicted ladder used the average to determine ladder position. The optimism ladder was determined using the following formula
(Rest of bigfooty average ladder position - average ladder position for a particular clubs supporters)/(Standard deviation for the rest of Bigfooty).

And here's the predicted ladder in graphical form



In the graph above the most relevant section of the graph are the blue boxes which are basically where bigfooty thinks your team will finish (these boxes represent the mean +- 1 standard deviation away from the mean). Less relevant are the red lines standing either side of the boxes, these show the highest and lowest places that anyone has that particular team. The yellow triangles indicate the mean for a club. Many things could be drawn for this graph one is that the top 3 positions are fairly rigid in their place, we can't seem to decide on the 4th place with North Melbourne, Geelong and Richmond all having a very similar position.

Edit: Updated 8th Feb. Sample size increases from 146 ladders to 284 ladder. Hawthorn and Sydney switched position on the main ladders.

 

[Bluelegs]

Would be interesting to see a graph of how teams rose and fell from 2011-2012 to see how bigfooty's predictions of the changes next year correlate with the reality of changes this year. The important thing that could be gained is not where particular teams fall but the fluctuation of ladder positions from year to year.

 

[GOAUS!]

Would be interesting to see a graph of how teams rose and fell from 2011-2012 to see how bigfooty's predictions of the changes next year correlate with the reality of changes this year. The important thing that could be gained is not where particular teams fall but the fluctuation of ladder positions from year to year.

You mean a comparison between what Bigfooty thought would happen and what actually happened?

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Wow, when I saw North up there, assumed North supporters would have been top few 'most optimistic'.

I reckon it's a conspiracy - you blokes pump us up so when we inevitably fall down in the last quarter it's more gleeful...

 

[Bluelegs]

You mean a comparison between what Bigfooty thought would happen and what actually happened?

Well obviously we can't see a comparison between the two unless you have data collected from a prediction thread last year. And next years results haven't happened yet so we'll have to wait on that one. However we could see how next years predictions stand next to this years results if only to see how much fluctuation the ladder had compared to what bigfooty predicts will happen in the future.

 

[GOAUS!]

Well obviously we can't see a comparison between the two unless you have data collected from a prediction thread last year. And next years results haven't happened yet so we'll have to wait on that one. However we could see how next years predictions stand next to this years results if only to see how much fluctuation the ladder had compared to what bigfooty predicts will happen in the future.

I do have the results from the 2012 prediction thread here's the comparison



So there's a moderate correlation there between the two.

 

[Bluelegs]

I do have the results from the 2012 prediction thread here's the comparison

View attachment 35225

So there's a moderate correlation there between the two.

Thanks very much.

 

[GOAUS!]

Here's what Adelaide supporters think about their 2014 season vs what Bigfooty thinks. Adelaide fans are confident of a top 8 finish, the rest of us aren't so sure.



And here's the Carlton comparison, Blues fans are seeing finals whilst the rest of Bigfooty isn't so sure.

 

[ep2018]

Can't see Adelaide not making finals with their dream draw, third year in a row they've copped it easy, lucky pricks.

 

[Righteo]

Would also be interesting to see what effect the fixture being released had on predictions, I imagine more people would have put Richmond a little higher on the back of a perceived soft fixture.

 

[GOAUS!]

Would also be interesting to see what effect the fixture being released had on predictions, I imagine more people would have put Richmond a little higher on the back of a perceived soft fixture.

Good point, I have put in the date when the fixture was announced.

Pre fixture: Richmond average ladder position - 6.3
Post fixture: Richmond average ladder position - 5.3

So people put Richmond 1 place higher after the fixture was announced.

Also Essendon went up 1.5 places after the fixture was announced however this is probably due to a few people placing Essendon 18th due to ASADA issues. Port Adelaide slipped a position after the fixture announcement.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

North are so overrated it's not funny

 

[Winter]

North are so overrated it's not funny

According to the data we are rated by everyone barring North Melbourne supporters, or should I say rated higher by the 17 other club supporters than ourselves.

Whether we are over rated or not, I suppose you'll have to wait until August 2014.

 

[Tragic sainter]

Who is this saint kilda that you speak of?

 

[GOAUS!]

Who is this saint kilda that you speak of?

St. is an abbreviation of Saint is it not?

 

[GOAUS!]

According to the data we are rated by everyone barring North Melbourne supporters, or should I say rated higher by the 17 other club supporters than ourselves.

Whether we are over rated or not, I suppose you'll have to wait until August 2014.

Not quite true North Melbourne supporters on average rank themselves 1 spot higher than the rest of Bigfooty, note that in that Optimism ladder almost ALL club supporters rank their own clubs higher than the rest of Bigfooty.

Here's what North Melbourne supporters think of their chances in 2014 compared to the rest of Bigfooty

 

[mattymac]

Can't see us not making the 8. 2013 was all about a chronic lack of firepower. Lost our FF to the cola flogs then our CHF did his ACL in round 5.

We've taken steps to remedy the firepower situation with Pods coming in to join Walker plus Eddie Betts crumbing. Midfield and backline still strong. Friendly fixture too as someone graciously pointed out

 

[Nutsngum]

St. is an abbreviation of Saint is it not?

Yes, but its not the name of the club.

Great work though.

 

[Purple Suit]

I hope Big Footy is a good judge.

 

[Mister_A]

Can't see us not making the 8. 2013 was all about a chronic lack of firepower. Lost our FF to the cola flogs then our CHF did his ACL in round 5.

We've taken steps to remedy the firepower situation with Pods coming in to join Walker plus Eddie Betts crumbing. Midfield and backline still strong. Friendly fixture too as someone graciously pointed out

The epic fall was a mixture of your horrific injuries and not having the easiest draw in history (not an exaggeration) like you did in 2012. It seems more people than not think the draw had more to do with it than injuries because most think that the same result is destined for Adelaide this coming year.

 

[telsor]

Was there any difference in BF opinion before and after the FIXture came out?

 

[Mister_A]

FIXture

Are you complaining? You have the best draw besides for maybe Sydney.

 

[timtamWB]

The epic fall was a mixture of your horrific injuries and not having the easiest draw in history (not an exaggeration) like you did in 2012. It seems more people than not think the draw had more to do with it than injuries because most think that the same result is destined for Adelaide this coming year.

But it was mainly the injuries. Even if people think they didn't deserve to make the finals in 2012, they still won a semi final, and came within a bee's dick of making the Grand Final.

If Hawthorn lost Roughead and Buddy, plus Hale was injured for parts of the year, and a few of your mids struggled with poor form/injuries, then they would struggle as well.

 

[Mister_A]

But it was mainly the injuries. Even if people think they didn't deserve to make the finals in 2012, they still won a semi final, and came within a bee's dick of making the Grand Final.

If Hawthorn lost Roughead and Buddy, plus Hale was injured for parts of the year, and a few of your mids struggled with poor form/injuries, then they would struggle as well.

I didn't say I agree with the majority, just that that seems to be the general feeling. Your injuries were the worst in the league, yes.

 

[timtamWB]

I didn't say I agree with the majority, just that that seems to be the general feeling. Your injuries were the worst in the league, yes.

I didn't think the Dogs injuries were the worst in the league, I'll assume you mean Adelaide. To use a cliche, a week is a long time in footy. I'm not saying you're one of them, but people forget how good Adelaide, and Tex Walker in particular, can be, and so they're jumping on the new, "exciting" teams like North and Richmond.