Your official BigBasketball 2015/16 NBA season preview - now with 15% more childish humour

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May 23, 2012
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Winter is coming has come and been, the ice has begun to thaw and hoops tragics everywhere are awakening from their annual post-season slumber once more in anticipation of a shiny new NBA season.

OK, technically speaking the season tip-off is still several weeks away. Yes, we're bored too. All the more reason to stick around in this thread, as a motley crew of local bball junkies masquerading as experts will bring you the very finest in half-arsed NBA analysis.

Every team. Every player. Every lame joke possible - we've got you covered.

Yes, our predictions are liable to be as accurate as a Michael Carter-Williams jump shot. And yes, we've put less planning and thought into this than the Clippers do with wardrobe design. But it could still be fun.

If you'd like to get involved in this abomination, there's still time. Standards are low, and the pay is even lower - we'll draw the line at Chris Broussard, but all other would-be contributors are welcome.

So without further ado, we present your 2015/16 NBA season preview*


* Degenerate punters please note: this preview is for entertainment purposes only. We do not accept responsibility for any gambling losses suffered as a result of heeding our otherwise esteemed prognostications.


Edit: quick links provided below

Atlantic: Raptors , Celtics , Nets , Knicks , Sixers

Central: Cavs , Bulls , Bucks , Pacers , Pistons

Southeast: Hawks , Wizards , Heat , Hornets , Magic

Northwest: Thunder , Jazz , Nuggets , Wolves , Blazers


Southwest: Grizzlies , Spurs , Rockets , Mavs , Pelicans

Pacific: Warriors , Clippers , Suns , Kings , Lakers
 
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ATLANTIC DIVISION


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2014/15 Record: 49-33 (1st in Atlantic, 4th in East) - lost 4-0 to Wizards in first round.

2014/15 Stats: Ranked #4 offensively, ranked #25 defensively

2014/15 Leaders: DeMar DeRozan (20.1ppg), Jonas Valanciunas (8.7rpg), Kyle Lowry (6.8apg)


Additions: DeMarre Carroll (4/60), Cory Joseph (4/30), Bismack Biyombo (2/10), Luis Scola (1/3)

Departures: Amir Johnson (Celtics), Lou Williams (Lakers), Greivis Vasquez (Bucks), Tyler Hansbrough (Hornets)

Draft: PG Delon Wright(#20), SG Norman Powell (#46)

Notable: Extended Valanciunas for four years, $64 mil, own the Knicks' (or Nuggets) 2016 first round pick


The Lowdown

Were the 2015 Raptors a major let-down, or a victim of their own unexpected success?

It was all going so well in the wake of the departure of franchise punching-bags Rudy Gay and Andrea Bargnani. After a fairytale run to the 2014 playoffs, the Raptors delivered a blistering 24-7 start to the 2015 season as an encore. They had offensive weapons galore, the respect of the wider basketball public and perhaps most importantly the adulation of their Canadian brethren.

Soon after Toronto hit a road-block marked 'reality'. DeRozan suffered an injury, and turned in a generally disappointing season even after he returned. Kyle Lowry played at an all-NBA level during those early glory months, then his play (in particular his shooting numbers) receded as he noticeably wore down. The play of young building block Valanciunas became spasmodic, while fellow lottery pick Terrence Ross's play was not even that. Meanwhile the offense became too iso-orientated, the team defense fell off a cliff and the Raptors became just another run-of-the-mill .500 team (25-26 after their hot start) in a putrid conference. Their humiliating playoff demise at the hands of nominal underdog Washington was less of a surprise than it seemed at first glance when taking into account all the aforementioned issues.

The Raptors' roster has undergone some significant surgery in the aftermath of their disappointing 2015. Is there hope of a sustained run in the East with a new supporting cast around the young core (Lowry, DDR, Valanciunas)? Or was Toronto's seeming promise merely fool's gold, the result of beating up on basketball's most putrid division?

2016 will tell much. Let's hope that their play is more inspired than their dubious attempts to mimic the style of a near-neighbour.




The Roster

GUARD: What should have been an area of strength for the Raps last season turned out to be more of a double-edged sword.

With All-Star caliber starters in Lowry and DDR, Toronto's offense certainly was more perimeter orientated. Both Lowry and DeRozan could create their own shot and guard their position, giving the Raptors an advantage over most opponents. When you consider that Toronto also possessed possibly the most potent reserve backcourt in the league in Lou Williams and Greivis Vasquez, then it's not surprising the the Raptors ranked in the top half of the league in all important offensive metrics.

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Unfortunately the whole was less than the sum of its parts for Toronto, and the backcourt was a major reason why. Four ball-dominant (if undeniably productive) guards in one team was too much a good thing - the rest of the team, in particular Valanciunas, tended to be frozen out of the offense for entire quarters or halves. Despite all those creators the Raptors ranked only 22nd in assists, as DDR and Williams in particular drove Raptors fans crazy with their iso-addiction. And while Williams and Vasquez produced numbers offensively, their dedication to defence was non-existant.

Enter Cory Joseph. After the departure of last season's high-scoring reserve duo, Joseph will be counted on the bring a more rounded, team-orientated game as the third guard. He won't wow anyone with his scoring or assist numbers, but he won't over-dribble or turn the ball over much either. And he can actually defend (see below).

Toronto are hoping this season that less is more where its backcourt is concerned.

FORWARD: Whereas the 2015 Raptors loaded their backcourt with firepower, their forward corps could probably be best described as an unobtrusive lot.

Patrick Patterson and Amir Johnson were unheralded contributors, and probably underrated in some ways. They didn't take bad shots (in fact they didn't get the chance with all that gun-slinging from the guards), and they gave effort on defence. Unfortunately they were also on the smallish side, meaning Toronto got beaten up on the defensive boards (25th overall). Johnson has since departed to Boston, meaning there will be even more pressure on Patterson to defend and rebound. Newcomer Scola will help with the latter, but not so much the former.

h=300


At small forward was where the Raptors' biggest headaches lay. Terrence Ross, for whatever reason (coaching, attitude, ability) just hasn't made the jump to bona-fide 3&D wing. That Toronto is losing patience with him is evident in the $60 million they bestowed upon DeMarre Carroll. The upgrade in defense, rebounding and attitude will be instantly observable - the Raps just have to hope that Carroll's remarkable shooting efficiency jump holds true. The wildcard here is James Johnson - he played well in spurts last year, before surprisingly dropping out of Dwane Casey's late-season rotation. He does give them an option to try a different look as a small-ball four.

CENTRE: The Lithuanians were a mystery to much of the rest of Europe for centuries. Their wild woodland home the remote Baltic coast was notable for both the vast quantities of amber it produced and for being the last stronghold of paganism on an otherwise Christian continent. In much the same manner, Jonas Valanciunas remains an elusive mystery to most basketball observers, and perhaps even the Raptors themselves.

Is he a potential dominant low-post force (he is a super efficient scorer), themselves a dying breed in the NBA? Is he being under-utilized by Casey and Toronto's stable of ball-dominant guards? Does he disappear within games because he's forgotten, or because he's forgettable? What is a low post scorer and rebounder with limited defensive nous worth in today's NBA? Sometimes he appears to be a 90s holdover complete with 90s jersey...

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Judging by his extension, the value still appears considerable. This however is a big year for Valanciunas, whom the Raptors have devoted a high lottery pick, a year abroad, three years patient development and now $64 million towards. Time to start repaying that faith - a bigger interest in defense would be a start. Offensively the idea should be to make him to the Raptors what Rik Smits was to the 90s Pacers - the sobering alternative is that Valanciunas becomes a latter-day Rony Seikaly. Biyombo had an underrated season in Charlotte, and could be one of the sneaky bargain signings of the off-season - lord knows the Raps need his shot-blocking prowess in the worst way.


In the gun: Dwane Casey

The jungle drums are beating up North. Among the list of grievances include a laissez faire attitude towards ugly iso-heavy offense, facilitating a huge drop-off in defensive aptitude in 2015, bizarre rotation decisions (including banishing James Johnson), and the under-utilization or stalled development of key youngsters Valanciunas and Ross.

Is a gun: Kyle Lowry

His body failed him last season, perhaps partly due to a Herculean effort to carry the team in the aftermath of the Rudy Gay trade. A well-rested Lowry should see his shooting numbers revive again, while he remains a capable distributor and a bulldog defender. The undisputed heart of the team.

Needs Improvement: Defense

The Raps were atrocious last season, allowing 50% shooting inside the arc and finishing bottom-five in defensive rebounding. To this end noted sieves Williams and Vasquez have departed, replaced by more noted defenders in Carroll, Joseph and Biyombo. Holdovers Lowry, DDR and James Johnson are all capable defenders too, so the the pieces are there for Casey - it's up to him to find the rotations that work.

Big Question: Is there room on Toronto's team for two young offensive weapons in DeRozan and Valanciunas who both boast 'old-school' games?

While Byron Scott would be in his element coaching this duo, the fact remains that most of the NBA is evolving towards offensive schemes geared towards shooting and ball movement. DDR and JV both operate most effectively out of the block, and while DeRozan can at times be an unwilling passer, he is at least capable. Valanciunas, on the evidence so far, is not.

If the 2016 Raptors start slow, do they move one of their young star duo? And if so, who?

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And now, a word from our sponsors: BigBasketball's resident experts give their thoughts...

The addition of DeMarre Carroll is one of the more intriguing off season defections. He comes from one of the elite passing offences to one of the middling offences of the league. As talked about by Goldsberry, 99% of Carrolls 3's were assisted last season.

How he fits into this Raps team will be interesting to say the least. He should slide right into the starting 3 spot, but if Ross finds some form he could slide to the 4 to provide some nice small ball lineups. It would not surprise me in the slightest to see some pretty decent regression in his shooting numbers.

In 13/14 the Raps were 9th in defensive efficiency, a ranking which plummeted last season to 23rd. Most notable was their collapse in the playoffs, being swept whilst giving up 110ppg on 48% shooting to the Wizards. (THATS WHY THEY BROUGHT ME HERE!).Defense looks to be a focus of this version of the Raps. CoJo had the eighth-best defensive real plus-minus rating amongst point guards at 0.93.

The loss of Lou might not hurt as much as you might first think. Sure he was balling, but his defence was, well... it makes Amare look competent. Williams was a black hole offensively in terms of ball movement.

Bringing in Andy Greer, a former Bulls assistant is coming in as a defensive coach. Sense a theme yet?

JV has signed his extension but tbh he's been an odd fit in Toronto, with a squad full of gunner guards who like driving lanes. Whilst decent in the post his passing is worse than Pricey's MLB multi strike rate. As poor as they were defensively, they were actually worse with him on court. He's one of the worst in the league at defending spot ups.

That leaves us to discuss DDR. I've always been a fan, for some unknown reason.... He's the Rudy Gay of shooting guards... but for some reason i love him :p

The key to the squad tho, is Lowry. A fit and firing Lowry is essential for everything they do. We saw how limited he was against Wall in the playoffs and it sucked the life out of them.

Here's a wise word from the sagest of them all...

It's fair to say Archie Goodwin and myself question the wisdom of the Jonas V contract:



What can't be questioned is the loyalty of the #WeTheNorth fanbase. However much like a Pricey MLB multi, it's time for the Raptors to deliver



Crystal Ball: This could go one of two ways.

Toronto's new additions give life to a limp defensive group, while simultaneously un-cluttering an offense that had too many lead dogs in 2015. Making the most of life in the cushy Craplantic Division, the Raps get a top-four seeding and finally break their playoff hoodoo (they've won one series. Ever.)

On the other hand, Dwane Casey might never figure out how to get the best out of Valanciunas. If the Raptors continue their .500 ways from last season he's a good candidate to get canned first. Toronto might also decide to part ways with DeRozan, who'd surely find willing suitors in Boston or LA.

Finally, vale Sweet Lou:






 
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Isnt the season still like two months away? Late October right?

Correct. However...

Yep

And we have 29 more teams to write :p
That's like one every 2 days

... this.

Unless some of you lazy sods want to share the workload, you're all stuck with September previews :D

As long as it doesn't go all Grantland and only do half.

This is where the smart money is.

Then we'll all get fired and end up with a cushy job at HBO /reality
 

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BOSTON CELTICS

Celtics.jpg


2014/15 Record: 40/42, lost first round to Cleveland

2014/15 Stats: Ranked 20th offensively and 13th defensively

2014/15 Leaders: Green (17ppg)/Thomas (20ppg)/Bradley (13.9ppg), Turner (5.5 apg), Sullinger (7.6rpg), Smart (1.5spg)

Additions: Crowder (5/35), Amir Johnson (2/24), Lee, Perry Jones

Departures: Babb (GSW), Wallace (GSW), Bass (LA), Datome

Draft: Hunter, Rozier, Jordan Mickey (39th)

The Lowdown

Its often said that Hinkie has no plan, yet Danny Ainge is seen as some messiah of GM's accumulating assets. But what does this really mean? Boston have a trove of upcoming picks and pick swaps, but all that means nothing unless you either hit the picks or can execute that high profile trade for a superstar. Boston have a ton of picks coming up, so its time to make use of them in the next season or two.

They were a surprise playoff team, albeit in a weak Eastern Conference, and look set to be a contender for the woeful Atlantic Division. But as the Bucks showed us as recently as 2 years ago, is the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff seedings a spot you really want to be? The chance to draft a superstar is generally at the pointy end of the draft, the only other way to land one is through trade or FA, neither of which see Boston as a huge player.

Their biggest plus is Brad Stevens, who proved himself to be a masterful coach last season. Getting this group to the playoffs was a fabulous job, unfortunately it gets harder this time around.

Making the playoffs was a massive achievement last season, really an over achievement with the roster. The path to the playoffs is made harder this season with expected improvement in Miami, Indiana and Orlando.

The Roster

Looking at the roster its a mix of some intriguing pieces. Marcus Smart and IT are an interesting pair of point guards. Smart's shooting... looks like @Primetime Priceys MLB multi strike rate

smart.jpg

He showed some nice signs in the Utah Summer League, i know... its only Summer League, and defensively he's a bulldog, so there's some nice things to work with. If he can improve his play on the pick and roll, something that was improving towards the later stages of last season, and develop his jumper he'll be a really nice player. Some folks have raised questions over his character, I'm not sure where he sits just yet, but its very early days. He led all rookie guards in VORP and was second to Noel amongst all rookies so there's definitely talent there.

IT as a 6th man is a great asset, although unhappy with his SI ranking lol. As a gunner off the bench its all good, whether he is happy with that role going forward remains to be seen. Whilst ranked high in PER (20.6) , his EWA was well down in comparison to other points (8.3), whilst ranking second in usage whilst only playing 25mpg. At least he's taller than Pricey... so thats a plus right His finishing at the rim was down from his Sacto days, in the mid 50's, and obviously his defense isn't great, but he is what he is.

Bradley is a bargain as a defensive 2 with 3 point range. He can take too many ill advised long 2's early in the clock, but if he sticks to his best shots he's a great asset.

So its all positive so far right.....

Then we get to Evan Turner. 27% from 3, 43% from the floor says it all, although perhaps i'm being a touch harsh. If we look at VORP he's at the same as Chalmers, Shumpert, KCP and Lin at 0.6. The C's were 4.7 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor and he's a poor spot up shooter at 28% of catch and shoot 3's. So.... if you play him over say RJ Hunter, do you impede his development. If i had to guess I'd say they look to flip him if there are any takers... I'm just not sure there's much of a market.

I cant find the vine of him missing 3 layups in a row unfortunately, so we'll have to settle for....



Then again as a third/fourth option in the backcourt/wing they could do worse i guess... i mean Nick Young has a career right :p

Then we get to the black hole of a wing. Crowder is a solid role player.. .seems i'm saying this a lot.... As an 8th man in the rotation who can hit the occasion 3 he's a decent get.

Olynyk and Sullinger are decent role players, but can you play both? Olynyk is comically poor defensively, although us Cleveland haters thank him for his contribution to the Warriors chip ;)

Adding Lee to Kelly and you have one of the best white man forward combos in the game... if you forget defense :p Trading Wallace for Lee is a no brainer, but how does he fit with the roster. Do you play him over Sullinger, or go smaller with him at the 5?

Sullinger is supposedly getting himself into great shape this off season, and if he can extend his range to 3 point land will be a decent stretch option. That said, his release is reasonably slow, so its not all gravy, but he's their best bet for potential in a loaded frontcourt

Amir Johnson is another solid role player, he's a great rim protector and Toronto had great numbers with him playing the 5 over JV. He's a hard nut, who plays hard and will be a great signing... if he can stay healthy.

Zeller is a... well... a Zeller i guess, how many of these guys are there anyway. He's eligible for an extension after this season, but its a crowded frontline to get minutes in. He has trade asset written all over him tbh



In the gun: Sullinger - Its time to put up or shut up, this should be his breakout year

Is a gun: Marcus Smart - in the absence of an actual gun, he's the best shot they have at one right now

Needs Improvement: Offense efficiency/Shooting - Boston were ranked 27th in 3pt % and had the 20th ranked offense in the league.

Big Question: What rabbits does Ainge pull out the hat


And now a word from our 'expert' Son of Skeletor

Ah, the Celtics. A team full of finesse big guys who don't bang, and guards with faulty shooting radars.

Has a collection of late lottery picks, cast-offs and stocking fillers ever flown so high? Brad Stevens deserved serious COY consideration for getting this team to 40 wins. Late in the season he even had Boston on 50-win pace - the Celtics might not have their roster yet, but they've got their coach.

The Celts do have a nice collection of perimeter defenders, and they were especially mean when it came to denying the three-ball. That Boston ranked dead-last in shot-blocking yet still ranked in the top half of the league in all major defensive metrics is testament to the defensive prowess of their swarming mosquito fleet.

Offensively... they don't get to the free throw line (29th), they can't shoot the three (27th), nor do they have a particularly dominant post threat, unless you count Jared Sullinger. Somehow Stevens was able to coax the league's 18th best offence from a team whose diet consisted primarily of plays like this.

In the short-to-medium term, Boston have to decide whether the undeniably talented Sullinger has a future in pro basketball, whether Marcus Smart is a point guard or Avery Bradley Mark II, as well as making a definitive call either way on Evan Turner's unorthodox game.

Long term, the Celtics need to tread carefully the fine line between keeping their options open and straying into basketball limbo. The larder full of future draft picks Danny Ainge has amassed look good on paper, but future IOUs are more highly valued by some than others.

Everything about the Celtics' roster screams 'ripe for a trade' considering the logjam at guard and power forward. If and when these trades occur, we'll finally learn more about Ainge's master-plan to land title XVIII.

Crystal Ball: A 9-10th place finish with 35 wins and trades galore. Those logjams in the backcourt and frontcourt aren't going to solve themselves.
 
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Alright I'll do the Hawks if no one else has their sights on them, never to early to start preparing for the new season
 
Because New York...

I have been waiting for this moment.

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Who's gone:Quincy Acy, Cole Aldrich, Andrea Bargnani, Tim Hardaway, Jr.,Shane Larkin, Jason Smith, Alexey Shved

Who's new:Arron Afflalo, Jerian Grant, Robin Lopez, Kyle O'Quinn, Kristaps Porzingis, Kevin Seraphin,Sasha Vujacic, Derrick Williams

The Knicks are the conundrum of the league. Apart from Brooklyn they are one of the teams treading water in purgatory until they can have some decent draft picks. They've drafted for the future and signed for the present. Of course they don't own their pick this year....

Jose at the point, whilst a serviceable offensive point is slower than Meads thought process on the defensive end. Jerian Grant's a nice pick, but he's a ways off starting and he'll need to develop that 3 ball

AAA, you can basically quote DeMarre Carroll verbatim. As a scorer coming from a Portland team stacked with shooters he finds himself taking a short term deal in a high profile market surrounded by, well, plebs to put it nicely. So how his shooting numbers progress, and how this impacts his next deal is going to be interesting to watch.

Pork Zingers is one of the most intriguing rookies in this draft class. Is he the next Dirk? Or is he the next Air Bargs? Or is he the next Darko?



Melo - Regrets... I've had a few



Chitown's looking mighty fine right about now isnt it?

RoLo's a nice get and will give a much needed competitive edge. That said he's a signing you make when you are much closer to competing than rebuilding surely? 4/54 is a heavy price to play, but he's a great character guy and doesn't need the ball in his hands which works well with Melo. Whilst not on a Chandler level defensively he can offset some of Melo's defensive lapses if they go small ball.

Perhaps the only reason you would possibly sign Sasha is because he was engaged to Maria Sharapova. Unfortunately that ended 3 years ago, about the same time as Sasha's relevance to even D-League level basketball

Seraphin? Ok he's a decent role player, but a star he is not. Ditto the best Irishman in the league, Kyle O'Quinn



Derrick Williams? He struggles to run and dribble at the same time let alone execute the triangle offense



On the plus side... they didnt sign Monroe to a max, so thats something. They've added some solid players, so if they perform to their talent level.... maybe a playoff push is on the horizon?

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In the Gun (under pressure)

Everyone. Dolan will put the microscope on Phil, Fisher and Melo if/when they don't make some noise.

Is a Gun (self explanatory). Melo's a stud. The problem is he's a 30 year old stud on a team whose next best pieces are rookies. I'm high on Jerian Grant and Pork Zinger, buts is a bit early to be calling either guns.

Needs Improvement

Where can you start, all of them. Apart from that, i think the onus is on Derek Fisher to start justifying his pay check. Brad Stevens took a motley bunch of nobodies and never will be's to the playoffs, yet the Knicks imploded quicker than a Shane Mead Christmas meltdown. I'm yet to see anything resembling intelligent coaching from Fish

Big Question

What one earth are they doing? Rebuilding or going for the playoffs? Given they have no pick its not the worst idea to try to compete and if all else fails look to flip Melo (when) if the wheels fall off

Expert comments

Primetime Pricey

Knicks had a good offseason in the trade period using the cap they had wisely which makes no sense whatsoever but they will still struggle to make the playoffs but as long as they bash into the Celtics and Bulls thats all i care about. **** those campaigners.
#Go Knicks

Just for that Pricey...

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Crystal ball



I can just hear the chatter in February from Knicks fans of KD 2016 and photoshops of Durant in Knick jerseys, only for it to all come crashing down, only for them to sign Jennings and Ryan Anderson..

Oh wait

http://nba.nbcsports.com/2015/09/04...ng-knicks-being-recruited-by-carmelo-anthony/

Stephen A. Smith of ESPN:

I know for a fact that Carmelo Anthony has been and will continue to recruit Kevin Durant until the cows come home. I’m also hearing that Kevin Durant is giving the New York Knicks consideration.

This is going one of two ways. 35 wins and trying to push for the 8th seed and falling short, or 20 wins and Melo injured/traded
 

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