Your official BigBasketball 2015/16 NBA season preview - now with 15% more childish humour

[Son of Skeletor]

Hows about them puns Son of Skeletor

Also farkin lol at Italian Maravich

Shout out for Atlanta_Cats too, some great insight into the lesser lights among the Hawks


We'll be tackling the Southwest next - Footypie32 Gak Attack Kidd Vicious nufan - would any of you guys be up for answering a couple of Q's?

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

Also farkin lol at Italian Maravich

Shout out for Atlanta_Cats too, some great insight into the lesser lights among the Hawks


We'll be tackling the Southwest next - Footypie32 Gak Attack Kidd Vicious nufan - would any of you guys be up for answering a couple of Q's?

I can answer any question on Dallas that isn't "Can you explain how the team will make the playoffs?"

 

[Gak Attack]

Also farkin lol at Italian Maravich

Shout out for Atlanta_Cats too, some great insight into the lesser lights among the Hawks


We'll be tackling the Southwest next - Footypie32 Gak Attack Kidd Vicious nufan - would any of you guys be up for answering a couple of Q's?

For sures. I have no comment on the Beard and the Beast Kardashian.

 

[Footypie32]

Also farkin lol at Italian Maravich

Shout out for Atlanta_Cats too, some great insight into the lesser lights among the Hawks


We'll be tackling the Southwest next - Footypie32 Gak Attack Kidd Vicious nufan - would any of you guys be up for answering a couple of Q's?

Sure, fire away.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

I can answer any question on Dallas that isn't "Can you explain how the team will make the playoffs?"

For sures. I have no comment on the Beard and the Beast Kardashian.

Sure, fire away.

Cheers all.

Stewie or I will PM you a couple of questions within the next week or so.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

So, the Wolfies.... A team on the rise, or are they.

2014/15 Record: 16-62 (5th in Northwest)

2014/15 Stats: Ranked #23 offensively, ranked #30 defensively

2014/15 Leaders: KMart 20ppg, Wiggins 16.9ppg, Dieng 8.3 rpg, Rubio 8.8apg, Mo 6.4apg, LaVine 3.6apg

Howl ya doin: Tayshaun Prince, Damjan Rudez, Dre Miller, Nemanja Bjelica

Fleeced: Anthony Bennett, Chase Budinger

New to the pack: Towns, Tyus Jones

Sadly Flip is unlikey to continue in his role with the team leaving Sam Mitchell to take over the coaching duties.

Rubio is one of the few true point guards in the league. His passing, when on song, is sublime, and throw in Wiggins and LaVine for the alley oop highlights and something special could be brewing... or at the very least one of the better teams to watch on LP. Injuries have cruelled him throughout his career and his shot.... well lets just say its ugly. Rather than use last years shot chart, given he only played 22 games its perhaps more prudent to look back to 2013.

Last season he was 8/26 at the rim.... thats um, well not very good. In the run and gun offense it wont bother Minny much, although with the addition of Towns Minnesota will be playing a fair amount of slow down half court sets. Rubio hasn't been terrible from deep above the break, altho thats probably product of people absolutely refusing to guard him. If he can hit the open looks it will help, altho teams will be able to go under the pick and roll action all day long as his midrange game is all kinds of ugh. The liability of Rubio in the pick and roll game is almost verbatim what I wrote about Miami, altho they at least have decent midrange shooters. Teams can go under screens and hedge off help, and their best shooter in Martin is best used off the screen for spot ups rather than in the pick and roll.

That passing tho....

Backing up the Italian Pete Maravich* we have Prof Andre Miller... which gives us one of the worst defensive point guard pairings in the league. Easter Island statues have more leg speed than Dre these days.

*

Shifting to the 2 spot we have KMart 2.0 (aka trade bait) and Zach LaVine. LaVine was thrown to the wolves at the point last year in the absence of Rubio, where he showed flashes of brilliance, with 28 against the Lakers, and then true to a rookie, came out scoreless two nights later. Defensively he was prone to getting lost in rotations, shot selection was an issue, but those are general rookie problems, and he put up 14.2ppg/4.2apg/3rpg with 38% from 3 post All Star Break. Altho that said, he was dead last in RPM among 84 point guards, and his impact on the Wolves defence, measured in points allowed per 100 possessions was -4.35. I'm genuinely excited to see what he can be, especially if Minny put out some long athletic lineups that can switch at will. Martin put up 20ppg, shooting nigh on 40% from 3, albeit missing 43 games. Does a 32 year old fit with the future of this team, or would they get anything of use by trading. Martin has 2/14 remaining on his deal, and for a roster looking to build towards a title he could be a valuable scoring option off the bench, but its questionable whether Minnesota would get anything in return unless they take on a salary dump.

Down to the 3, we have Wiggins, Shabazz, Rudez and for some reason Tayshaun ******* Prince. Wiggins, what more can you say. He's a stud. Offensively he remains a work in progress. He needs to work on the midrange shot and the 3 balls, altho 31% from deep is a servicable starting point.
As an iso defender he was in the 62nd percentile, not horrible for a rookie and committed 3.4 fouls per 48.

The boy has some hops and whilst not the second coming of Lebron, or even Anthony Davis, he can be something pretty special nonetheless.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=17&v=kJnarXYrFSs

Now Shabazz. In the December 1 to Jan 9th period he was knocking down the 3 ball at 40% and putting up 16.9ppg/4.9rpg and 1.8apg. His total rebounding percentage was solid at 10.2 and his assist rate went up to a decent 9.6%. Whilst his left block play went downhill as teams worked pout how to defend him he developed a nice bread and butter right shoulder game, and projects to spend more time as a small ball 4.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgWhfvMGimQ

I know very little about Rubez, but the Wolves are high on him. He can shoot the rock, but as a 29 year old sophomore who knows what to expect.

Tayshaun ******* Prince man....

Ok shifting to the 4 we have Garnett, Towns, Payne, Bjelica. The small sample size (5 games) with KG back in Minnesota saw their defensive rating jump from 111.3 to 93.8. As a mentor he'll have a huge impact on the young squad, especially Towns,altho what he can offer on the floor will be limited going forward.

Payne is another former first round pick, playing 29 games in Minny and putting up 6.7/5.1 in 23.1 minutes. Whilst he was a decent shooter at Michigan State that didnt translate to Minny, as he shot just 11 percent from deep (small sample size). He showed improvement during SL.... ok its SL but still.



As for Towns, he has shown some nice things down low in SL and some nice rim protection. He'll be a slam dunk as a number 1 pick.



In college he showed some nice ability, and will be a force down low. Reminds me of a young LMA in a way.

He was efficient at the rim shooting 72% and has shown some ability at pre draft workouts to extend his range out to the 3. If he can develop that midrange game he'll be a great pick and pop guy going forward. Where things start to get interesting is how Minny plan to use Towns. They can use Shabazz and Payne as stretch 4 type guys, with Towns at the 5, or go big with Towns playing the 4 alongside Dieng.

Down to the 5 we have Dieng and Pek. Some interesting opinons exist on Dieng amongst Wolfie fans. One particular quote i enjoyed...

'Occasionally spectacular help defense blocks perpetuate the believe that he is an excellent defender despite the possibility that most of the people reading this post could take him off the dribble in the open court.'

So is he a starting calibre player or not? Or is he trade bait? I'm not sure either way. Whilst the block stats are nice, they come almost entirely in help defense situations. His one on one defense was average at best, with big centres able to have their way with him down low. Altho you can argue he had some pretty abysmal perimeter defenders ahead of him last season, and fatigue due to the increase in minutes and absence of Pek. His rebounding dropped from 20% as a rookie to 15.9% and defensive rebounding rate fell from 26.9% to 20.8%. These numbers are likely the result of playing next to Love, with oppositions focusing on Love, leaving Dieng free to have his way on the boards. Offensively its a similar mix, he is a decent post player, who shows a soft touch on the midrange and bank shots, altho a touch turnover prone (top 15% in turnover ratio in the league) and struggled at the rim. He shot 42% when a defender was within 2 feet... not great. He projects to be a decent backup centre and if another team over values him, perhaps its best to cut and run, but unless you get massive overs is it worth it?

As for Pek. He's long had problems with ankles, and surgery on the right Achilles is not good news, and some reports indicate that it was a last ditch effort. He'll be on minutes restrictions, something like 20-25mpg. His fg% went downhill, shooting 42%, whilst most other stats were similar to those of previous years. Unfortunately he is still owed 3/36, making him in essence untradeable.

Is a Gun - Wiggins and Towns are two cornerstones for the franchise going forward

In the Gun - Rubio. Its the ever present question, can he shoot. Minny can put out a range of lineups, but are not well blessed for knockdown shooters

Improvement - Shabazz/Lavine. Both put up numbers, but were they good numbers/bad team syndrome. I tend to think that Shabazz can forge a career as a 4 in the league, the question is, is it in Minnesota? I'm not so sure on LaVine yet, lets see how he comes into his sophomore year. Defensively they were woeful, and improvement is drastically needed. The presence of KG, and less injuries will help.

Question - Who stays? Apart from the two number 1 picks, the whole roster could be on the trade block at any point of the season. Sadly Pek is essentially untradeable.

Experts opinions - Happy to include whatever

Prediction - I must admit I have no idea. A healthy roster should see them push for 30 wins , but things could just as easily go south

Hows about them puns Son of Skeletor

Thanks for the write up. The narrative I see amongst the Wolves fans is that the team had an aversion to 3's under Flip as a specific game place last season and coming into this one it is a question of whether or not they are going to abandon that.

Rudez is very much a perimeter shooter who's limited in pretty much every other way.

 

[14mjt]

Interested to see your take on the Lakers and Clippers upcoming season. Good start to the season for Hibert, already had a punch thrown at him...if you can call it that.

 

[stewie griffen]

2014/15 Record: 55- 27 (2nd in Northwest, 12th in West), lost Conference Semis to GSW 2-4

2014/15 Stats: Ranked #13 offensively, ranked #3 defensively

2014/15 Leaders: M Gasol 17.4ppg, ZBo 10.5rpg, Mike Conley 5.4apg

Join the sleuth: Matt Barnes, Brandan Wright

Lost their bear-ings: Kosta Koufos, Nick Calathes

New cubs: Jarell Martin

Notable: Re-signed Gasol

I'll put it out there off the bat, Memphis are my second team. Small market, grit and grind, physical style of play, love it all. So before i run off and drink my own urine... and fill your head with bear puns, take my musings with a grain or 3 of salt.


At the point we have Mike Conley backed up by Muy Bueno Beno. Mike is one of the top point guards in the league. His performance against the Warriors in the playoffs, and absence with plantar fascitis and a broken face just showed how much he means to this team.




Its been a long road to the top for Conley, feel free to pop over to Grantland and read up on his background (http://grantland.com/features/mike-...h-greg-oden-kyle-lowry-tony-allen-marc-gasol/) His pick and roll game with Gasol is just beautiful to watch, he can feed ZBo down low, get his own points, shoot the 3 ball and is a defensive demon. Of course he is also an upcoming free agent who has so far resisted signing an extension, for obvious reasons given the cap rise on the horizon.

I mean look at this D on Lillard

Couple it with this passing

And this movement off the ball

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=12&v=qi41F7UXYjI

Hell i could make this post all about Conley.



Udrih is a throwback to the midrange game.

The mid ranee marauder hit on 51.4% of his 2 point jumpers, although his 3 ball was poor, down to 26.8%. Defensively... well. He was last on the squad in defensive RPM, with a defensive rating of 105. Thats who Udrih is tho, Chief Bucket Getter, just dont ask for much else. He was bothered by an ankle through much of the playoffs, which coupled with the injuries to Mike Conley hurt Memphis late, but still put up 15.6/4.1/4.3 per 36.




Tony Allen. FIRST TEAM ALL DEFENCE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhQQbZRjecI

The Grindfather is another throwback. He's relentless defensively, but limited doesnt even begin to describe him offensively. The GSW series best describes the best and worst of Tony. Halfway through a game, the Dubs were 0/7 when guarded by Allen, with Klay going 0/5.

Yet

https://vine.co/v/OdAYYOzlQHt

Kerr played Bogut on Allen on defense and basically ignored him. Green was able to take the punishment down low and the series swung. Memphis had to bench Allen, and once that happened the shackles came off.

I mean this is, um, not good



The other shooting guard is Courtney Lee.

https://twitter.com/ReynoldsRant/status/585969746761265152/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

35% of his shots were 3's, of which he made 40.2%, 13th in the league. October to January saw this shot chart.

As the season progressed that morphed into this post All Star break

To some extent the arrival of Jeff Green impacted on Lee's game, yet he exploded against Portland in the playoffs. His shooting and efficiency numbers show someone who is a true Jekyll and Hyde player. When his shot is falling he's active and engaged on both ends of the floor, when it isnt..... ugh. Courtney needs to find a way to score when the shot isn't dropping, either getting to the rim or the free throw line, to keep him involved int he game. Ultimately Memphis need him as the best shooter on the team.

https://vine.co/v/O5aJUBgMAiE

Damn this is going to be a long one

So we move onto the wings where we have a collection of some decent names on paper in Green, Barnes and Vinsanity. Green was going to fill a wing hole with slashing, shooting and defense, yet for every highlight there was a lowlight. To some extent he mirrors Courtney Lee with maddening inconsitency. Green was supposed to allow Memphis to play with a stretch 4, yet bigger guys were able to overpower him and his playoffs were terrible.

Matt 'Rihanna' Barnes

Ah, Mr Faux Tough. He can provide another defensive wing with streaky shooting. Should be fun.

Vinsanity is still going. He turned himself into a solid spot up shooter in Dallas, yet with the change in spacing in Memphis....

Now we get to the heart and soul of this team. ZBo is a beast, he lost weight, played 81 games and put up some great numbers. He put up his best PER since before the ankle injury, better shooting efficiency, more rebounds, higher steal rate, less fouls, lower turnover rates. Memphis started the year 21-5 then lost Zach for 9 games, where they went 4-5. On his return they went 12-2. Old Man River still got it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwYhM_LjnLc

He absolutely destroyed LMA in the playoffs as well

https://streamable.com/aba0

Gasol returns for another contract. The former DPOY went to another level last year, increasing his shots per game to 18.6 from a career average of 15. He averaged 1.4ppg, higher than his previous high of 14.6 and his average of 14.1. Yet while increasing his output and usage he still increased his PER. He deservedly made First team all nba and was an All Star for the second time.

Brandon Wright provides a serviceable back up at a decent price.

Is a Gun - Mike Conley. I've said enough.. .and posted a ridiculous number of gifs, images and vids to show why

In the Gun - Jeff Green. Time to earn that money Jeff, or be forever a nearly man mired in a mediocre career.

Improvement - Shooting is obvious, consistency from the likes of Lee and Green is another

Question - Father time will come a knockin'.... but will it be this year?

Experts opinions - Do we actually have any Memphis fans around?

Prediction - Another 50 win year, barring injuries, and could make the Conference Finals with the right matchup, but second round is probably the best bet at this stage

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Grizz do it their way and it's great to watch but I don't think it will ultimately be effective. Like Ross Lyon and Freo they need to up that offensive rating in the post season.

 

[Hipster Doofus]

Great write up Stewie

 

[stewie griffen]

Grizz do it their way and it's great to watch but I don't think it will ultimately be effective. Like Ross Lyon and Freo they need to up that offensive rating in the post season.

Are u saying they are 'bearable' to watch....

Ok that's enough bear puns..... For now

 

[Son of Skeletor]

I'd like to complain about these ridiculously out-of-date previews.

Matt Barnes is clearly not a faux-tough-guy - just ask Derek Fisher.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Are u saying they are 'bearable' to watch....

Ok that's enough bear puns..... For now

Well they've certainly managed to CONley.

 

[nufan]

Also farkin lol at Italian Maravich

Shout out for Atlanta_Cats too, some great insight into the lesser lights among the Hawks


We'll be tackling the Southwest next - Footypie32 Gak Attack Kidd Vicious nufan - would any of you guys be up for answering a couple of Q's?

sure

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Team Record: 55-27 (2nd in Southwest, 5th in West), lost 4-3 to Clippers in first round

Team Stats: Ranked #7 offensively, ranked #2 defensively

Team Leaders: Kawhi Leonard (16.5 ppg), Tim Duncan (9.1 rpg), Tony Parker (4.9 apg)


Popped in: LeMarcus Aldridge (4/84), David West (1/min), Jimmer Fredette (1/min), Boban Marjanovic (1/min), Jonathan Simmons (2/min), Ray McCallum (trade)

Spurned: Tiago Splitter (Hawks), Cory Joseph (Raptors), Marco Belinelli (Kings), Aaron Baynes (Pistons)

Draft: C Nikola Milutinov (#26), F Cady Lalanne (#55)

Notable: Re-signed Kawhi Leonard (5/95), Danny Green (4/45), Tim Duncan (2/10), Manu Ginobili (1/3) & Matt Bonner (1/min)

The Lowdown

Well...

That was a nice five minutes when we could dream about the Spurs becoming just another NBA team. After winning five titles, their division every other year, roughly three billion games and routinely schooling the league in the game of drafting and international scouting, now San Antonio has decided to dominate free agency too. Awesome.

For the rest of us success-starved NBA plebs...



So, look - the Spurs made this work by sacrificing. Sacrificing depth, sacrificing money, sacrificing ego. Ergo, as ever it's hard to begrudge them their off-season coup and ongoing success. San Antonio have given their aging Big Three a fillip in the quest for one last title whilst simultaneously ensuring that the team will remain a power long into the future, and they've done it all without out-spending their rivals.

In the short term there will still be dilemmas to solve - the depth that kept Duncan, Parker and Ginobili in cotton balls during the regular season in recent years has dissipated, while the interior defence may not be as fearsome as it once was. There will likely be an adjustment period for all the new recruits and revamped line-ups too.

Nevertheless with Kawhi, Aldridge and Danny Green all locked up through 2019, the Spurs look to have the blueprint for the ultimate smooth succession plan all drawn up. Oh yeah, and naturally they might give the title a shake this year too.

It's just not fair dammit.

So the championship banners go up there, right?


The Roster

GUARD: If you're looking for chinks in the formidable Spurs' armour, then this'd be the place to start.

Tony Parker is coming off possibly the worst season of his career. Dealing with a succession of niggling injuries, TP posted a pedestrian PER of 15.9, with a negative +/- rating and capped by a poor playoff performance where he shot just 36%. Age has no doubt contributed in curtailing his previously electric speed, but the major reason for Parker's decline can be gauged from looking at his shot chart:

It doesn't look terrible (particularly that three point shooting), but a critical part of the Frenchman's arsenal has always been his mid-range pull-up. This is the shot that has kept defenders honest when TP slalomed his way to the basket, but as you can see he shot it a LOT last season, and at a severely reduced accuracy compared to his career. In short, defenders don't need to honour that shot any more and can wall off the basket when he attacks - when combined with reduced athleticism, this is a blow to Parker's efficiency. He's basically become an anti-analytics guy, a non-three point shooter who can't get to the basket as often or the free throw line either.

On a brighter note Danny Green had a tremendous season, knocking down 191 treys at a sizzling 42% and posting career bests in virtually all statistical categories. Not bad for a former second round pick discarded by Cleveland, not bad at all. Of course with the Spurs being the Spurs, they were able to re-sign him at a surprisingly reasonable rate, but what can you do eh? Having two prime defensive hounds at the wings, San Antonio are able to cover Parker's defensive shortcomings more than adequately...

Speaking of defensive shortcomings, Patty Cakes will be back in black and asked to step up his contribution in the wake of Cory Joseph's departure. Mills isn't exactly the gun defender that the latter was, and in truth had a pretty awful season where he struggled with his shot... he did however give San Antonio a major boost in the playoffs, knocking down 16 treys at 57%. With Parker's struggles and a new post weapon in Aldridge to play off, the Spurs will be counting on Patty to deliver more consistently.

San Antonio also need to replace the departed Marco Belinelli, who helped limit Ginobili's minutes during the regular season. Manu's more of a default point guard than a gunner these days, and ideally Popovich would like to keep his minutes below 1500. Joseph and Belinelli gave him that luxury in recent seasons; this year it might become incumbent upon Mills and summer-league standout Jonathan Simmons to help share the load. The latter has decent handles and a flair for the dramatic.


FORWARD: For a cool $180 million, the Spurs might just have locked up the best forward combo in the league.

Kawhi... well, I can't tell you anything here that you don't already know. Finals MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Baptizer of Souls: Dr Claw will get you next every time.

Just in case 25 years worth of David Robinson and Tim Duncan wasn't enough for you, San Antonio is now home to post-artist extraordinaire LaMarcus Aldridge. As to how he'll fit with the Spurs' core, one would suggest that he shouldn't have too many troubles.

Aldridge's two major offensive strengths are his pick and pop game and his expertise in quickly reading the defence when double-teamed in the post. The latter skill should endear him to his Spurs team-mates who are already will drilled in a system predicated upon precise ball movement, while the former skill might make LMA the key to re-establishing Parker's pick-your-poison game.

Meanwhile, speaking of bona-fide artists...

Everyone's favourite fat Frenchie returns for another season. In all seriousness Diaw is pretty important to the Spurs, as he gives them a different dynamic offensively, is probably underrated defensively and enables them to go smaller when the situation calls for it. He also generally steps it up in the playoffs too.

There's also some guy called David West who's been tagged to fill in a few minutes here or there off the bench. If LMA doesn't work out as a pick and pop partner for Parker, Pop could always give Mr. West a try...

CENTRE: For one season at least, there can be no debate - Tim Duncan is the Spurs' centre.

Entering his 19th season, there's been few signs of decline in the old master yet. His post game is not quite as unstoppable as it once was, but that's OK because he plays with a guy called LeMarcus Aldridge now. Duncan is still an elite force defensively, while his passing prowess has arguably never been better. And as the playoffs showed, he can still take over a game.

Behind Duncan though one finds the second significant chink in the Spurs' otherwise formidable armour. Part of the cost of acquiring LMA was in letting Tiago Splitter depart for Atlanta. While the oft-injured Brazilian big-man sometimes frustrated Spurs fans, there's little point arguing that he generally helped the team on the court.

Where Splitter will really be missed is at the defensive end - he was a masterful pick and roll defender, and both an excellent foil and substitute for Duncan. His departure means that Aldridge now becomes the second-most accomplished interior defender on the roster, and this has a myriad of knock-on effects. For starters, it probably dictates that LMA will spend some significant minutes at centre, simultaneously ensuring that his time shared on court with Duncan will be slashed. It also leaves the Spurs without a true defensive anchor in the event of Duncan getting injured or into foul trouble - part of the reason he has been able to avoid the former was Splitter's presence as a secondary defensive anchor.

The Spurs did draft Nikola Milutinov with the 26th pick, but he won't around any time soon. Another big Serbian however has found his way to the Alamo in the person of Boban Marjanovic. One doubts that he'll fare too well chasing speedy NBA guards around, but woe betide the first intrepid midget to challenge him at the basket...





Pick & Pop - where we pick out one of Pop's best coaching qualities: clear communication

In the Gun: TP phone home.

When your standard of play declines to the point of becoming decidedly mediocre, then folks are less likely to excuse you your faux pas; for instance turnstile defence or seduction of other people's wives. "But I'm French!" is not a bullet-proof fallback defence either, just FYI Tony.

Is a Gun: Tim Duncan

None shall pass in his quest to become the greatest player of his generation.




Needs improvement: Late game execution

It's hard to quibble with a team who have done - and won- everything. They did have their moments in some close games last season though, including the playoffs.

Big Question: Is the balance of San Antonio's much ballyhooed front-court right?

Duncan, LMA, Diaw, West - that's one hell of a talented group. However who relieves Duncan as the defensive anchor and/or ensures that he remains well-rested for the playoffs? Aldridge seems the most logical candidate, but he has an avowed aversion to playing centre and is not really a shot-blocker of note. How the Spurs juggle their stable of big men and in particular Duncan's minutes will be keenly watched by fans and pundits alike.


And now, a word from our sponsors:

Q: Was jettisoning some of San Antonio's considerable depth in order to sign Aldridge a move made to win another championship now, or rather a move made to safeguard the future?

A bit of both really. The Spurs know you really only find top quality bigs by either getting a top 5 draft pick or via free agency. They obviously weren't keen to go the draft route, so they went hard for LMA. I think it's a well thought out move that should keep us contending for at least the next couple of seasons.

Q: With the addition of Aldridge & West, and keeping in mind the wear and tear on Parker & Manu, are the Spurs likely to return to the post-orientated offence of yesteryear?

I think we'll have to. Parker and Manu are slowing down and won't be able to attack the basket with same reckless abandon they have in the past. They will still be able to do it in spurts, but not as consistently as they used to. I think you'll see our passing game go to another level to help find open shooters; something we have in abundance.

Q: Jonathan Simmons, Kyle Anderson or Boban the BFG: which of these three is the most likely to make a real and regular contribution to the cause in 2015/16?

Probably Anderson, though I still don't foresee him playing heavy minutes. It generally takes 2 seasons for players to learn the Spurs system. That's why they don't usually make too many roster changes at once. All three will be relying on injuries or 'rest' games to see proper action.

Word association time:

Duncan: Consistent.

Pop: Winner.

Window: Closing.

Clippers: Pretenders.

Bonner: Money.

Diaw: Unique.

Presentations: Overrated

Lakers: Irrelevant.

Jimmer: White.

The Magic Eight Ball:

Call it a hunch, but I think the Spurs might be pretty good...

Actually I wouldn't be surprised if the Spurs had a (relatively) underwhelming regular season - Parker, Manu and Duncan are all missing their invaluable stunt doubles from last season (Joseph, Belinelli and Splitter respectively), and Pop is unlikely to sacrifice a shot at a title for a few regular season wins. Of course when we're talking about the difference between 55 wins and 65 wins, it's not exactly the end of the world.

San Antonio won't be invincible, but they'll have as good a shot at the title as anyone. Ultimately this off-season was as much about safeguarding the future of the Spurs dynasty as it was about keeping the immediate title window open... and it's hard to argue that they haven't ticked both boxes. Bastards.

 

[Drumroe]

Drumroe’s Expert Opinions:
Son of Skeletor stewie griffen It's about a month late but here it is.

Every year I get excited about the Pistons and every year I’m left disappointed after about 4 weeks, but hey, maybe this year will be different!


The difference between this year and previous years is that the pieces on our team actually fit together so should mesh well to play to SVG’s system. Gone are Greg Monroe and Josh Smith, with the only players left from when SVG took over the team being Drummond, Jennings and KCP. Our roster will most likely look like:


PG: Jackson, Jennings, Dinwiddie, Blake

SG: KCP, Meeks, Hilliard

SF: Morris, Johnson, Bullock

PF: Ilyasova, Tolliver

C: Drummond, Baynes, Anthony


Point Guard:


Reggie Jackson: We paid what most people consider overs for Reggie Jackson, but I didn’t mind the deal. SVG’s system always leads to great point guard numbers, and in the last 16 games of the year Reggie put up something like 19, 5 and 11 on 50/40/90. Now obviously we cant expect those sort of numbers, but there is potential for him to just drive and dish with shooters around him and Drummond catching oops in the middle.


Brandon Jennings: Won’t be fit for a while, but his game suits a 6th man gunner in a Jamal Crawford/Lou Williams sort of way. If he comes back and plays well he could easily be a front runner for 6th man of the year.


Blake and Dinwiddie: Will play minutes… that’s all I’ve got.


Shooting Guard:


Kentavious Caldwell Pope: Has been the player in training camp according to SVG, and is our best perimeter defender. Is sneakily athletic and is lightning in the open court, and his shot is getting a lot more consistent. I’m expecting a big year from KCP, and should play a similar role to those of DeMarre Carrol/Danny Green/Harrison Barnes on better teams. Has improved his handling as well so I’m expecting 13-14 points a game with great D.


Jodie Meeks: Was injured most of last year, expect him to play about 20 minutes a game and shoot the ball well.


Hilliard: Hilly Dard.


Small Forward:


Marcus Morris: Will split his minutes between small forward and power forward. Obviously has a lot of off court issues, but we just need him to play solid D and hit outside shots. Not a massive fan of him but has been decent in pre-season.


Stanley Johnson: I love this guy, and I know it’s early days but so far everyone criticizing us for picking him over Winslow is looking like an idiot. Is hitting his outside shots, playing D and just putting up points. Is putting up 18, 5 and 3 on good percentages on pre-season. Look for him to play big minutes and a good chance to be starting by mid-season.


Power Forward:


Ersan Ilyasova: I loved the trade for Ilyasova, and if he stays healthy and shoots the ball well he’s a great fit at the 4 for us. Hoping for him to put up 10-12 points a game on good percentages. Is actually a decent defender too.


Anthony Tolliver: Can shoot the 3

Centre:


Andre Drummond: The key for us, if he doesn’t become a top.5 centre we don’t become a playoff team. Is already close to the best rebounder in the NBA, and has been building a solid post game. His free throw rate is the same as pricey’s win rate on the nags. This team is built a lot better around him than previous years, so should put up close to 15 and 15.


Aron Baynes: BBAAYYNNNEEESSS. Good backup centre. Will hit free throws when Drummond is getting hacked.


Joel Anthony: Professional.


Keys to the team.


Andre Drummond: Needs to become a plus defender. Has all the tools to be a real good defensive centre, and a coach that can work a system around him. Looking forward to what SVG does on the defensive end this year.


RJ, SJ and KCP: If these 3 live up to their potential it’s an awesome perimeter line-up that can shoot, defend and get to the rack.


Summary:

I’m excited for this year as always, but let’s hope I’m not let down again this year.

 

[stewie griffen]

Also build a ******* wall :-D

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Good man Drumroe

Stanley Johnson has looked bloody golden on sneak preview thus far, perhaps a silver lining to starting 4-25 last year?

Ilyasova always seemed to start slow in Milwaukee, then get hot in about Feb - be interested to see how it all works out.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

I agree on Johnson. When I read that the Pistons were interested in Kieff,meh was the first player I thought of. Ilyasova is underrated in my opinion and should really be given a fair shot early. Not sure you'll get solid D out of Marcus but it depends what the voices in his head tell him. Expecting him and SVG to clash at some point.

Also on the Spurs. Kawhi missed a fair chunk of the early season with that funky eye injury so expecting him to be keen to fire throughout the regular season.

 

[Drumroe]

I agree on Johnson. When I read that the Pistons were interested in Kieff,meh was the first player I thought of. Ilyasova is underrated in my opinion and should really be given a fair shot early. Not sure you'll get solid D out of Marcus but it depends what the voices in his head tell him. Expecting him and SVG to clash at some point.

Also on the Spurs. Kawhi missed a fair chunk of the early season with that funky eye injury so expecting him to be keen to fire throughout the regular season.

Yeah I'm not really keen of Keiff at all. Ilysova is a better shooter so fits better within our system, and if he shoots around the 40% mark that he has in previous seasons he will be a great acquisition considering we gave up nothing for him. I'd like to see Marcus Morris play some small ball minutes at the 4 too.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Yeah I'm not really keen of Keiff at all. Ilysova is a better shooter so fits better within our system, and if he shoots around the 40% mark that he has in previous seasons he will be a great acquisition considering we gave up nothing for him. I'd like to see Marcus Morris play some small ball minutes at the 4 too.

His best ball at the Suns was at the 3. Above average rebounding at that position.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Team Record: 56-26 (1st in Southwest, 2nd in West), lost 4-1 to Warriors in Western Conference Finals

Team Stats: Ranked #12 offensively, ranked #8 defensively

Team Leaders: James Harden (27.0 ppg), Dwight Howard (10.5 rpg), James Harden (7.0 apg)


Pocket-ed: Ty Lawson (trade), Marcus Thornton (1/min), bunch of guys on non-guaranteed deals

Launched: Josh Smith (Clippers), Pablo Prigioni (Clippers), Nick Johnson (Nuggets), Kostas Papanikolaou & Joey Dorsey (N/A)

Drafted: F Sam Dekker (#18), F Montrezl Harrell (#32)

Notable: Re-signed Pat Beverley (4/25), Corey Brewer (3/24), KJ McDaniels (3/10) & Jason Terry (1/min), owe 2016 first pick to Nuggets (lottery protected)

The Lowdown

A funny thing happened to Houston on their road to fast becoming the NBA's most reviled team.

First they got blown off by Chris Bosh and deserted by Chandler Parsons (cue guffaws), leaving Daryl Morey to scramble in an attempt to salvage their season. In the door came Trevor Ariza (cue contract year lulz), Jason Terry (drafted the same year as Steve Francis), Corey Brewer (a scatter-shooting wing from the worst team in the West) and J-Smoove himself (did someone say scatter-shooting?). Despite losing Dwight for a considerable part of the season, this rag-tag bunch of misfits rode The Beard's coat-tails to 56 wins and the second seeding in the loaded Western Conference.

Then, on the verge on an embarrassing playoff exit at the hands of the Clippers, the Rockets showed moxie to fight back from back-to-back blowouts and a 3-1 deficit - a feat which incidentally lifted the mantle of 'disliked pretenders' from their shoulders and placed in squarely upon those of their newly vanquished foes. And finally, after lying low for most of July, Dork Elvis worked his magic to turn a bunch of spare parts into Ty Lawson, who the Rockets hope will become the second playmaker that the team needed.

So yes, these kinds of shenanigans will continue to bug us. And yeah, Dwight is still a colossal goof.

But the bottom line is this: the Rockets are deep, talented and - as they ably demonstrated last season - gritty fighters with their backs to the wall. They are contenders.

The Roster

GUARD: Here's hoping that - with a little help from John Lucas and James Harden - Ty Lawson can keep himself on the straight and narrow.

Jason Terry and Pat Beverley gave Houston tremendous value considering the pittance the Rockets paid for them, but they were still outmatched most nights at the NBA's deepest position. There's a good argument to be made that Beverley might be retained as starter - his unconventional '3&D' game does mesh well with Harden's in some respects - but there's little doubt that Lawson's acquisition is of tremendous significance to the Rockets' hopes of a title.

Houston badly needed both a playmaker to spell Harden and a secondary ball-handler to play with him, and Lawson ticks both boxes with aplomb. While his shooting stats aren't anything special at first glance, he's more than capable as a spot-up shooter - in short he should be effective alternating playing off-the-ball with Harden. As a distributor he has few peers, as his 720 assists and impressive assist/turnover ratio of nearly 4:1 last season demonstrate:




Houston obviously still value what Beverley brings to the team, as they brought him back on a surprisingly reasonable four year deal. Of course what he brings to the team is a little in-your-face defence and a little in-your-face attitude, supplemented with the occasional three point bomb - all useful traits, although a true point guard he ain't.

The Rockets also decided to keep James Harden around, and after a season in which the Beard averaged a lazy 27/6/7 that was probably a wise choice. Whether he was MVP or not is probably a moot discussion; what the Rockets do know is that they can build an entire offensive system around his exquisite handles and canny moves. The Beard may have his detractors, but it's undeniable that he uses his offensive gifts to make his entire team better - in this way he's better compared to LBJ than, say, Melo.

The Beard also lifted his defensive focus from 'abysmal' to 'passable' last season, and when you have Beverley and Ariza beside you and Dwight behind then 'passable' is good enough. As for the theatrics, well... let's just all agree that we prefer Harden better when he focuses entirely on the hoop and not the defender:

Also returning is Jason Terry, who remarkably not only logged more than 1600 minutes during the season, but also became the Rockets' de-facto starting point guard during their playoff run. The Jet's had a great career, but asking him to chase Steph Curry and Chris Paul around was borderline abuse - still, Houston can always use good shooters.


FORWARD: Well, we're nearing the mid-way point of this preview, and I think things are going pretty well. Still, always good to seek an outside opinion eh?...


Hmmm, better lift our game here then - we aim to please. And while on the topic of delivering on expectations, Trevor Ariza did all that and more during his second tour-of-duty in Houston last season. Perhaps unfairly chastised for everything he wasn't as a player (and certainly harshly criticised as a professional mercenary), Ariza's time in Washington unlocked the secret to his potential; namely sitting in him in the corner on offence while unleashing him upon the cream of the NBA's wings on defence.

Simply, Ariza was born to play in Houston's hyper-analytical gamestyle - lay-ups, three point shots and a licence to run in transition. He capped a wonderful season with a stellar playoff performance, and after watching the likes of DeMarre Carroll sign contracts for double that which Ariza received just twelve months ago, the sting of watching Chandler Parsons walk to the Mavs has well and truly abated for Rockets fans.

Another born to play Houston's deceptively simple brand of basketball was Corey Brewer, who thrived in his role as energizer off the bench. He's not the three point threat or defender that Ariza is, but his quick hands in the passing lanes and slippery moves make him a terror in the open court. Meanwhile Houston would probably like to cut down the workload on both Harden and Ariza (nearly 3,000 minutes apiece), a factor which doubtless influenced them to re-sign both Brewer and KJ McDaniels for three years. At $10 million, one assumes that McDaniels is more than an expensive insurance policy for Kevin McHale - it's probable that he'll receive regular rotation time.

On the other side of the court, power forward remains Houston's biggest question mark. This time last year it appeared that Terrence Jones had the inside track after the Rockets whiffed on Bosh, but Jones struggled with injury for most of the season. In fact in the playoffs he just struggled, period. It would be remiss of us not to mention the (largely) positive influence Josh Smith had on this team after being acquired mid-season, just as it would be remiss of us not to include this video demonstrating why:




Jones performed much better as a reserve after losing his starting place to Smith in that series, and this might be where the addition of Lawson becomes crucial - one of Smith's biggest strengths was his passing ability, and it was he who became the default secondary playmaker for last season's Rockets. Substitute Pablo Prigioni for Lawson, and a bench also possessing Terry, Brewer, McDaniels and Clint Capela would be light-on for shooting and creativity. Thus Lawson's addition might be the key plank that allows Jones to come off the bench, where his athleticism and weak-side shot-blocking might be better utilised.

That being the case, Donatas Motiejunas would presumably start up front alongside Howard (although it remains to be seen if McHale indeed leans this way). The man Rockets fans affectionately refer to as 'D-Mo' had a breakout season (ironically much like Jones had the preceding season), improving his defensive work and shooting a solid 37% behind the arc. While he'll never be a good rebounder, that weakness should be masked playing alongside Dwight. Motiejunas does have other tricks in his bag, however...




The Rockets also nicked Montrezl Harrell in the second round of the draft. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that McHale could find his way to squeezing the explosive rookie into the crowded frontcourt rotation, as the Rockets' frenzied style lends itself to throwing (in Harrell's case literally) body after body at you off the bench.


CENTRE: We'll probably never see Dwight circa 2009 again.

Howard's not quite the dominant shot blocker he was in his Orlando days, while he seems to be missing more and more games with injury as the years go on. Meanwhile he's no longer even the best post player on his own squad, and while he enjoyed a fruitful partnership with buddy Josh Smith at times he was hardly dominant in the playoffs.

However... this is all probably moot. The truth is that Houston don't need Dwight to be the MVP candidate that he once was - they already have their premiere offensive threat, and the roster is loaded with talent. What the Rockets do need is for their big man to stay healthy and continue to serve as the lynch-pin for a defence which has improved markedly in the last 18 months. They wouldn't say 'no' to a few more made free throws though...

Motiejunas did a pretty serviceable job filling in for Howard when he missed time last season, but the Rockets will be hellbent on giving Clint Capela more time here after he served up tantalising glimpses of defensive potential during the playoffs. He also served up this:




... hey, anyone who makes Spencer Hawes look sillier than he already is is OK in my books.


Pick & Pop - where we pick our favourite Mead moment and pop the cork on a bottle of champagne in memorandum.

In the Gun: Kevin McHale

At least the Rockets' players seem to like him, even if most of the fans don't... so file under Wittman, Randy. Reports that he has no coaching moves are exaggerated.

Is a Gun: Dwight Howard

50 of them in fact and... oh, wait. Look, with all due respect Dwight I'm gonna have to reserve this category for the Beard now. Seasons change, passing time etc etc.

Needs Improvement: Offensive execution

Despite the Beard's exploits, Houston was still only a middle-of-the-road team offensively. Their main problem was their tendency to fall into the habit of standing around watching Harden in the half court, which in part explains why they ranked 28th in turnovers. The Rockets also surprisingly ranked 28th in defensive rebounding.

Big Question: the future of Terrence Jones

Jones has showed glimpses of potential between injuries, and has value around the league. The clamour to trade him is not as pressing now the Rockets have landed their point guard in Lawson, but Jones will be a restricted FA in 2016. With Motiejunas, Harrell and Capela in reserve, do the Rockets want to give him a lucrative extension?


And now, a word from our sponsors: normal Rockets fan (don't sfellow) Gak Attack made time to give us the inside scoop on all things Red

Q: Perception was Houston lacked a 'true' point guard, even though it was not as widely acknowledged that Harden virtually plays like one - what can Ty Lawson bring to the Rockets, in your opinion?

Already in pre-season we've seen that Harden will remain basically the point on offense however the main boost from Lawson will come when Harden is sitting as our offense would come to standstill when Harden sat last season. The second unit will be quick and Lawson will be great running it. He will also make the opposition point guard work harder on the defensive end, no better example was how easy Curry was able to take it in the WCF, the opposition now goes from having to chase around a couple of pensioners to having to guard one of the quickest players in the NBA and also have to put up with Beverley harassing them in patches too.

Q: Kevin McHale cops a lot of stick, especially from Rockets fans: could you break down some of his strengths and weaknesses as a coach for us?

I've certainly not hidden the fact I'm not the greatest McHale fan but we could do worse(also a lot better).

Strengths - His relationships with players is his best attribute. It seems simple but plenty of coaches have struggled to control and get respect from star players, there's no doubt McHale due to his playing career has the respect of the players. He's also been great at developing the bigs during his time as coach(with some good help).

Weaknesses - Basically anything in game. A tape of Rockets plays out of time outs would be interesting, it amazes me you can spend a minute and come out with nfi what you're doing. Given the way Harden plays you can understand somewhat the fact the Rockets simply don't run plays but there are times you need to have a few up your sleeve. One plus however is his lineup management has improved significantly in his time at the Rockets.

Q: There are a lot of young Rockets with 'buzz' surrounding them - Motiejunas, Jones, McDaniels, Capela, even Montrezl Harrell; which of this group has you most excited, and why?

D-Mo for me. Non Rockets fans think we're talking s**t when we say D-Mo was a big loss for us in the playoffs but anyone who watched enough of us would know he was. The guy has an excellent portfolio of post moves and has steadily improved his range(36% from three last year) and while he won't be winning any defensive awards yet he has improved greatly, especially protecting the rim. While he needs to improve free throw shooting a bit he does shoot them well enough to counter the hack-a-dwert while keeping a 7ft rim protector on the floor. As he is only just returning from injury and may miss the start of the season it may take a few months before he really starts to take off again.

Special mention for Capela too. Heaps of potential.

Word Association Time

MVP: Beard

Dwight: Playoffs

Clippers: Choke

Dork: God

Uniforms: Hideous

Beverley: Campaigner

Spacing: Everywhere

The Magic Eight Ball:

The Rockets have taken many risks with their recruitment in recent times. There's talent yes, but also turbulence; sadly I foresee trouble with the authorities...

The good news is that they no longer have problems with their spacing!

Seriously though, the Rockets are deep enough and talented enough to do serious damage this year - the former attribute will hold them in good stead during the long and winding regular season in particular. When it comes to the playoffs, it's hard to escape Lawson's centrality to Houston's fortunes - if he plays, and plays well, he takes considerable pressure off Harden (ie no more 14 turnover games), and makes the Rockets a contender.

 

[14mjt]

Agree about Howard, he needs to stay fit and healthy if the want to make a deep run. His presence to alter shots and protect the rim will be a big factor. Doesn't need to put up huge numbers, just clean up the boards.

 

[stewie griffen]

You forgot the kardashian curse sos :-D

 

[Son of Skeletor]

You forgot the kardashian curse sos :-D

I know, I realised just before it finished it. Then with the Odom situation plus the fact that it was already a longarse preview as it was, I just let it go.

I figure it'll probably get a run in the weekly threads anyway