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Brisbane $3.20 vs Carlton $1.35 (Gabba)
Best odds: Luxbet $3.70 (Bris), Pinnacle $1.36 (Carl) Line: Brisbane +19.5
Recent History: Carlton, 2 comfortable home wins in the last two years, Brisbane won at the Gabba before that.
Comments: A little hard to know what value to put on Brisbane’s win over a rabble in round 1. Look to be an improving side, however their forward-line is currently depleted, with 4 of the club’s top 6 goalkickers last year set to miss again.
I think their improvement by some commentators has been a bit overstated this week and they should be outclassed by a quality Carlton team. You would thing that to have any chance they need to keep the game low scoring.
BigFooty Says: Include Carlton in your multis.
Essendon $1.24 vs Port Adelaide $4.00 (Etihad)
Best Odds: Betfair $1.28 (Ess), Pinnalce $4.39 (PA)
Line: Port Adelaide +25.5 points
Recent History: A very even history, the last two games have been close and are 1 apiece.
Comments: Port jumped the gun on a very out of sorts St Kilda side at home last week. Looking at their team, it’s still very much in a developmental stage. Despite their good round 1 form I think they may struggle in many games this year away from home and will be outplayed on talent here.
Essendon played well to overcome a bad match-up for them and they should have the ascendancy in most match-ups. How Port contain Essendon’s talls will be a big challenge.
BigFooty Tip: Essendon to cover the line.
Sydney ($1.68) vs Fremantle ($2.18) (SCG)
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Best Odds: Pinnacle $1.69 (Syd), Betfair $2.33 (Fre)
Line: Fremantle +6.5
Recent History: The last two SCG meetings have been won by Fremantle.
Comments: The Dockers were perhaps the most impressive team of round 1 and potentially represent value here. The loss of Ballantyne is a blow but most of their important players are playing.
They have surprisingly shown good recent form at the SCG also. Sydney will get O’Keefe back and are pretty even across the ground, although arguably don’t have Freo’s top-end talent. Always competitors. Shoud be a close game.
BigFooty Tip: Fremantle to cover the line.
West Coast $1.06 vs Melbourne $8.75 (PS)
Best Odds: Sportsbet $1.08 (WC), Pinnacle $10.25 (Melb)
Line: Melbourne +47.5
Recent History: West Coast have comfortably won the last 3.
Comments: The mismatch of the round. The Demons will struggle to contain the Eagles’ talls and midfield. The Demons’ injury list is extensive and they could potentially be heading for a ‘crisis’ season struggling both on and off the field.
I think West Coast may blow out the margin at some stage here for their first home game of the year.
BigFooty Tip: West Coast to cover the line.
Collingwood $1.13 Richmond $5.75 (MCG)
Best Odds: Betfiar $1.17 (Coll), Pinnacle $5.98 (Rich)
Line: Richmond +34.5
Recent History: Collingwood have won the last 4.
Comments: The Pies are yet to show solid form and they may not have improved from last year. The Tigers are becoming a more competitive unit and Jake King will be a good inclusion for them, however their young backline really struggled last week and will have their hands full with Cloke and Dawes.
Their recent record against the top sides is poor and there are not many match-ups where Richmond have an edge here. Although Collingwood looks too good, they haven’t shown enough solid form to get involved in this game.
North Melbourne $1.01 vs GWS $16 (Blundstone)
Best Odds: Betfair $1.03 (NM), Betfair $25.70 (GWS)
Line: GWS +80.5
Recent History: None
Comments: 80 points is a pretty big handicap for Tassie, where conditions may suit low scoring football this weekend. The Kangaroos beat up on last year’s debutants Gold Coast by ten goals in 2011 and are likely to enjoy the opportunity for a big win, something they rarely do.
They have GWS covered in every area of the ground and played OK last week, however I think GWS have a better than even chance of staying within 80 given the conditions.
BigFooty Tip: GWS to cover the line.
Adelaide $1.20 vs Western Bulldogs $4.50 (AAMI)
Best Odds: Betfair $1.25 (Ade) Bet365 $5 (WB)
Line: Western Bulldogs +30.5
Recent History: The Dogs have won the last two.
Comments: The buzz team of the season so far and with no injuries, Adelaide have given no reason to be betting against them. Their young midfield is strong and their scoring potency through Walker, Tippett, Porplyzia, Callinan and a number of goal-scoring midfielders is very difficult to contain and may suit what looks like a high scoring trend in the game this year.
This looks like too tough an assignment for a Dogs team that is OK, but without the momentum or the defensive quality to contain the Crows.
BigFooty Tip: Include Adelaide in multis.
St Kilda $1.05 vs Gold Coast $9.50 (Etihad)
Best Odds: Betfair $1.08 (StK), Pinnacle $12.74 (GC)
Line: Gold Coast +52.5
Recent History: St Kilda won a low scoring hard-fought match last year.
Comments: St Kilda are certainly too short to back or use in multis here. I think their team is still solid but they are not the sort of side you want to be backing to cover a 53-point line.
Last week they attempted a counter-attacking gamestyle of ‘kick it over the back for the forwards to run onto’. It remains to be seen if this will work. Gold Coast struggled at Etihad last year and are still a little out of their depth in the competition.
Geelong $2.52 vs Hawthorn $1.52 (MCG)
Best Odds: Sportsbet $2.60 (Gee), Pinnacle $1.62 (Haw)
Line: Geelong +12.5
Recent History: Hawthorn have lost 7 in a row since the ’08 Grand Final.
Comments: Hawthorn haven’t put a foot wrong yet and will have gained confidence last week. Their teamsheet has few weaknesses.
The Cats’ hatred of the Hawks is well-known, I think they’ll be desperate to win and am expecting a very close game.
Although they start as underdogs here, Geelong are a comforting side to back. Their midfield does have the ability to get on top here, cconstricting Hawthorn’s forward-line will be the biggest challenge.
BigFooty Tip: Geelong to cover the line.
