Away teams represent the best value this week and the Weekly Punt should know, we have now almost quadrupled our initial stake since we started in round five. In fact we have only made a weekly loss five times in those 16 rounds and not once have there been successive weekly losses. This is due to only taking games on the line when they present value.
Betting on head-up favourites yields little returns as the odds tend to be quite short. On the other end of the spectrum, betting on non-favourites tends to be more difficult and when the Weekly Punt thinks that the non-favourite may come up or get close, the line is usually a very safe bet. Consistency and value is the best way to beat the market.
Essendon v Carlton this week is, according to the punters, looking like one of the matches of the round. While these bitter rivals tend to make these very competitive games, the Weekly Punt does not think this will be a close affair and these are the reasons why. Essendon have only won one game in their last six and it was against Port, while Carlton have won four in that same time. Both have players out but the Blues get their inspirational skipper back this week. The Blues are definitely the better team and the only forgone conclusion is that they will easily beat the -5.5 line, with Betfair offering the best odds at $1.96 and our bet of the round.
Although the Dees thrashed GWS back in round 13 and started the Giants run of really bad losses, GWS has been pretty good the last couple of weeks even if it was against meager opposition. But that is where Melbourne are anyway and given that GWS are getting important players back this week they should definitely get a lot closer than the +34.5 line offered by Betfair this week.
Both St Kilda and Geelong are trying to secure finals position. Geelong this year has only beaten the lines six times this year, the least in the AFL. With Geelong also having to travel back from Perth this week, this game should give Saints the edge. +18.5 for St Kilda this week should be a sure thing.
As we have stated before Hawthorn has been the best performing team in beating betting lines this year. But last week we bet against them and it was the second successive week Hawthorn had not covered the line. Hawthorn has key players outs, they’re a little overrated and their form isn’t as strong as it was a couple of weeks ago. They play the Suns who in the fixture last, the Hawks only managed to win by nine points. Why this is then the biggest line in history is baffling. Take the Suns at +105.5 this week with Betfair.
Can Richmond start to upset aspiring finalists as they promised? Will find out this week if the 50/1 chance to make the finals can do so when they try to exact revenge on Fremantle this week. Fremantle last week suffered their first loss in over a month and lost some key players back in Adelaide. With the Tigers in slightly better form the +15.5 offered by Sportsbet is a good bet this week.
The Bulldogs have been very poor this year, they have only beaten the lines seven times – the second least in the AFL. They play the Swans who have beaten the lines 13 times, equal 1st in the AFL. Last time these teams met, the Swans nearly won by 100 points. With the Dogs still with significant outs, take Sydney at -49.5 with Sportsbet offering $1.92.
Current Betting Fund: $3,945.50. Total staked so far: $1,003.50
Essendon v Carlton – Handicap (-5.5) – $200 @ $1.96 Betfair
GWS v Melbourne – Handicap (+34.5) – $200 @ $1.90 Betfair
Geelong v St Kilda – Handicap (+18.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Hawthorn v Gold Coast – Handicap (+105.5) – $200 @ $1.99 Betfair
Fremantle v Richmond – Handicap (+15.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Western Bulldogs v Sydney – Handicap (-49.5) – $100 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting
Get the latest footy odds at Odds.BigFooty.com.