The pointy end of the season has finally arrived and when it comes to predicting which two teams will be at the big dance next week it basically comes down to a few simple things; who are best two teams this year, who has had the week off, who has home ground advantage, and who is the fittest. In fact this is no different to how The Weekly Punt generally looks at home and away rounds.
This is why this week we are taking the two best performed teams on beating the betting lines all season.
Hawthorn v Adelaide
Hawthorn are the premiership favourite and rightly so. They have beaten all the other three remaining finalists convincingly except against Sydney they only managed a narrow win but it was at the SCG. They finished the season with easily the best percentage despite a tough draw.
This week Hawthorn is regarded as the shortest favourite for a prelim, this despite their opponents Adelaide finishing second on the ladder only by inferior percentage. Week off, fitter team and home ground advantage will give the Hawks a massive advantage and will do better than the -37.5 line with Betfair offering the best odds at $1.94 and our best bet this week.
Sydney v Collingwood
Like the Hawks, Sydney have beaten the betting line the most this season; 15 times. Collingwood on the other hand have only beaten it eight times, that’s once every three games and the least in the AFL.
Collingwood are a very good team and do have the edge at ANZ stadium but with Sydney better prepared and with less injuries this is the week the Swans break their hoodoo against the Pies. Betfair is offering the best odds again on the -8.5 line at $1.94.
Current Betting Fund: $4,369.00
Total staked so far: $1,003.50
Hawthorn v Adelaide – Handicap (-37.5) – $200 @ $1.94 Betfair
Sydney v Collingwood – Handicap (-8.5) – $100 @ $1.94 Betfair
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting – see the latest odds at odds.BigFooty.com