After a very profitable 2012 The Weekly Punt is back for another year giving you the best way to use your hard earned money on AFL betting. Every week team’s strengths, expected performance, form lines and various other factors are calculated on each game to work the expected margin. This is then compared to the expected lines found with the current betting markets and whenever large enough discrepancies are found, a tip is given to bet on beating that line. The larger the discrepancy the more is staked, usually because it is more likely to be accurate.

This may seem like 50/50 proposition but most weeks the weekly punt is on the money and the reason why last year we turned $1000 into over $4000 just by beating the betting agencies at their own game. And every week the weekly punt will give you tips on what lines to bet, the amounts and a description the logic formed to arrive at the tip. We also pick one bet as bet of our round.

Usually there is about at least three or four games every week where discrepancies are found, but only one was found this week. Maybe the bookmakers have finally caught up to the Weekly Punt’s assessment of teams? Will see how the year plays out.

If you want to take NAB cup form into full account than of course you may think that Brisbane is heavily favoured to win this, that been said, the Bulldogs did not have such a bad preseason. That’s if you take it into account. Brisbane is still the better team but it is the Bulldogs home game, it should be closer than the +20.5 line offered by Centrebet at $1.91 and the only bet is of course the bet of the round.

Current Betting Fund: – $150.00

Total staked so far: $150.00

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane – Handicap (+20.5) – $150 @ $1.91 Centrebet

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting