Last week was the first time the weekly punt made a loss; this despite three out of the five bets coming up. That is the nature of the beast, the bookies always take a cut and you need to be a really good punter to come out on top. But it was only a small jab to the cheek, incidental contact and play-on, the weekly punt still has more than tripled its staked amount this year. This week the weekly punt formula has detected a half a dozen line bets offering excellent value which will put it back on the winners list in fine fashion.
The Hawks performances on the betting lines this year has been average, only beating them half the time but last week they beat GWS by 84 points at half pace. While it cost the weekly punt last week, it will not this week. The Suns are having their best ever season, having beaten their previous season record of three wins after only eight rounds but they have lost more key players again. Still, the Hawks will not take the Suns lightly and will be at full throttle as they comeback from their weekend getaway in Launceston. The Hawks line is at only at -66.5 with Betstar at the moment, so take it quickly before the bet of the round balloons out.
It is a pretty simple recurring equation when it comes to Essendon. They are starting to lose players yet again, their mid-form slump has come again and generally speaking the weekly punt thinks the Tigers are a better team. It was proven last year back in round 22 when the Tigers won by 45 points. Expect the same result this week in the Dreamtime match. The line at the moment is +4.5 for the Tigers with Sportsbet but expect that to be closer to even money before Saturday night.
The Dogs are out of form – having lost 17 of their last 18 games – and they have only beaten the betting lines twice this season. They play the Saints who in contrast have beaten the betting lines on five occasions. Last time these two played the Saints won by 76 points. The Dogs are still wounded with several key outs so expect a similar result. The Saints line of -29.5 offered by Betstar is too small considering the Dogs have lost by more than that margin already five times this year.
Fremantle last week were unlucky to take the full chocolates against the Swans at the SCG, but had you had taken the Dockers line the last three weeks you would have taken chocolates each week. Fremantle are in really good form and as stated last week, they are showing to be a premiership contender. Their opponents this week are on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Demons are the least competitive team so far this year and expect Lyon’s boys to eat them up in Perth. With Fremantle continually underrated by the betting market expect another week of profit on the line with Betstar offering -61.5 and more easy money.
The Lions are starting to impress after their last fortnight. After beating the Bombers at Etihad last week, they were within a kick of taking the lead late in fourth quarter against the Eagles at Gabba the previous week. The Blues are going to have a tough time at the Gabba and the weekly punt suspects the Lions may just get over the line. Contentious late decisions and draws get always get in the way of a punter’s bet, so betting on the line here is the best bet again. The Lions have beaten the lines the last fortnight and expect them do so again and Sportsbet will give you the best odds at $1.92 and the best line at +16.5.
GWS cost the weekly punt dearly last week but it will not this week as we are betting on them against the Eagles. The Eagles have only beaten the betting lines twice this year, equal least in the AFL. They are just a little overrated as mentioned in previous weeks and this week should be no different. GWS should be able to cover +70.5 offered by Sportsbet with the Eagles missing key outs again.
Normally the weekly punt does not take special offers but Sportsbet are offering money back on head-to-head bets for the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Sydney at MCG. The weekly punt almost took the line but it is very close to its predicted margin. Take the Pies with odds of $1.57 and if they lose by 20 points or less you get your money back. Done deal.
Current Betting Fund: $1,590.50
Total staked so far: $513.50
Hawthorn v Gold Coast – Handicap (-66.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betstar
Richmond v Essendon –Handicap (+4.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs– Handicap (-29.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betstar
Fremantle v Melbourne –Handicap (-61.5) – $200 @ $1.91 Betstar
Brisbane v Carlton –Handicap (+16.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
GWS v West Coast –Handicap (+70.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Collingwood v Sydney –Head-to-Head– $100 @ $1.57 Sportsbet
(Bet is on team in Bold)
Odds correct at time of posting