Our second bye week stretches games out for four days/nights. There’s some bitterly cold, wild weather predicted for Adelaide and Melbourne over the next couple of days, so expect some wet weather footy. Four of the six games are lopsided contests, so there’ll be a few 40+ margins coming. I’ve banked on these big wins in one of our multi-bets below.
So, does coming off a bye help or hinder a team? We’ll get a better idea on which way the pendulum swings after this weekend’s games.
Here we go…
Adelaide vs. North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
North Melbourne has had too many unnecessary distractions this week. I’ve been wondering if a $50,000 and $30,000 fine is tax deductible? If so, the timing is perfect. They’ve snuck them in a week shy of the financial year ending! All jokes aside, none of these off-field distractions will help the Roos in their preparation for an early interstate game against the in-form Crows. Thursday night at Adelaide Oval, the well-rested home team are coming off a solid pre-bye win over the Eagles, and an unexpected win it was; at Domain Stadium, no less! Despite a perfect start to the 2016 season, the Roos have now lost top spot (to Geelong). Be it injury, a hard run home, AFL sanctions, a six-day turnaround, etc…North Melbourne look to be slowly losing their grip on a coveted top four position. They’ve lost three of their last four games, and if they don’t start winning again soon, it’s not an over-exaggeration to predict that North Melbourne could see themselves sliding into the bottom half of the top eight very, very quickly, especially since Thursday night’s game looks to be another loss. No doubt, Adelaide will be bracing for North Melbourne to pull the same strong-arm tactics they tried with Hawthorn last week. They’ll be ready. Wet, frigid, blustery conditions are predicted, so it won’t be a Crow’s blow out, but Adelaide can’t be faulted at the moment, and at home, they’ll put this one away. Adelaide -15.5
Collingwood vs. Fremantle (MCG)
Collingwood are coming off the bye and Fremantle have three wins in a row. A month ago, this would have been Collingwood’s win – easily! Now, I’m not so sure. The Magpies are an unpredictable bunch. In the words of Forrest Gump, “you never know what you’re gonna get.” However, Fremantle’s injury woes continue to plague them, and it’s been reported that coach, Ross Lyon has just 29 fit players to choose from for this MCG clash. I’m tipping the Pies at home. On the betting front, Collingwood are very good value at the line. Collingwood -1.5 ($1.92).
Richmond vs. Brisbane (MCG)
Richmond are coming off the bye, and let’s face it, Brisbane are a rabble. They can’t defend. They can’t score. They kick backwards and they handball way too much, which is the only reason why their possession count is so high. It’s a stat that’s often brought up post-match as being a positive aspect of their game, but this isn’t a stat to be proud of because they’re not serviceable possessions. Look, when you’re going down by an average of nine-to-ten goals every week, having the ball in hand one hundred more times than your opposition means squat. Grasping at straws, much? Enough said. In Melbourne, on a cold, damp day, the Tigers will maul the Lions. If they don’t win, they’d better not buy a Melbourne newspaper on Sunday, because the headlines will be brutal! The Tigers must win, and win well. Richmond – 40+
GWS vs. Carlton (Spotless Stadium)
GWS are back home at Spotless Stadium, and after last week’s struggle, and almost loss against the plucky Bombers, they all would have taken a long, hard look in the mirror. Carlton are coming off the bye, but even with the rest, there’s no way the Blues will come close to winning this one. GWS will put the foot down early and make a big statement on their home ground – GWS – 40+
St. Kilda vs. Geelong (Etihad Stadium)
St. Kilda went into their week’s rest with a positive mindset after an unexpected win over Carlton. That said, Geelong are playing their best football in years and they’ll account for St. Kilda in convincing style at Etihad. Patrick Dangerfield will grab himself another three Brownlow votes, just to make sure. Geelong 40+
Hawthorn vs. Gold Coast (Aurora)
This is our only game on Sunday, and it’s a bit of a fizzer to end the second week of the bye round. The Hawks are coasting along nicely. They shook off a revved up North Melbourne to get a narrow win last week, and despite a loss to the Tigers, the Suns were much more competitive in their match before the bye. That said, Gazza and Co., won’t be anywhere near good enough to beat the unsociable Hawks in Tassie. It’s going to be darn cold on Sunday afternoon. I wonder if the Suns have time to get their guernsey made up in wool? You know, like the old time jumpers. The only heat those sun-drenched Queensland boys will be feeling this weekend is from Hawthorn! Even without Cyril Rioli (he’ll be attending his grandfather’s funeral in the NT), the Hawks will get a big win. They’ll make sure of it. Then, it’s a week off to rest and recharge. Hmmm…that four-peat dream is getting closer and closer to reality. Hawthorn 40+
Best Bets
Multi #1- Richmond 40+, GWS 40+, Geelong 40+, Hawthorn 40+ = $9.73
Multi #2 – Adelaide H2H, Collingwood -1.5, Richmond -24.5, GWS -24.5 = $5.45
Collingwood at the line: -1.5 ($1.92)
Good luck!
Bye: Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles and Western Bulldogs.
