It’s about now, with five rounds to play, that we’ll start hearing the phrase “mathematically” possible a lot. In reality the top eight looks set in stone but it’s time to strap in as we take a fearless look at how we see these final rounds playing out and the likely top 8 make up come the end of round 23.
We’ll start at the top
Cats 13-4
When I started writing this article the Cats were 13-3 and I expected them to be 14-3 with a thumping win over the Hawks. Their loss to the Hawks combined with their form since the bye has me doubting whether they can stay on top of the ladder.
Lucky for them, they have a dream draw to finish the season – interstate travel excepted. While four of their five opponents are in the bottom eight they have a horror travel schedule to contend with.
Three of their last five games require an interstate visit. Could it be the round 23 clash with the Lions will decide the minor premier? Cats percentage advantage will mean it probably won’t make a difference.
Rd 19 – v Sydney in Sydney – WIN
Rd 20 – v Freo in Freo – WIN
Rd 21 – v Kangaroos at Geelong – WIN
Rd 22 – v Lions in Brisbane – LOSS
Rd 23 – v Blues at Geelong – WIN
Predicted finish: 17-5
Brisbane Lions 12-5
If you predicted the Lions would be in 2nd/3rd spot after round 18 stand up, give yourself a high five, a pat on the back … and now punch yourself in the face, because no-one did! What a year for the Lions?
They have the Gabba pumping again and legitimately look like they can challenge for the premiership. This is a team that only managed 5 wins for all of 2018. Amazing stuff. And what about the run home?
Three of five matches at the Gabba. Next to no injuries. Seriously have you looked the injury list? They have NONE! Big plus going into finals. They will go very very close to winning the whole thing… unless the finals pressure causes a little thing we call choking.
Rd 19 – v Hawthorn in Tassie – WIN
Rd 20 – v Dogs in Brisbane – WIN
Rd 21 – v Bye…. sorry we mean Suns in Brisbane – WIN
Rd 22 – v Cats in Brisbane – WIN
Rd 23 – v Tigers in Melbourne – Drum roll …. LOSS
Predicted Finish: 16-6
Eagles 12-5
The reigning premiers. What to make of them? On one hand perhaps they’re perfectly placed to defend their title. On another it’s been a bit of a stuttering year, highlighted just last week with a shock loss to an out of form Collingwood and then a battling win over Melbourne. Their run home is intriguing. They go home, away, home, away, home – but importantly only face two top eight sides in that time.
No matter where they finish whoever they face won’t have it easy. They ARE a threat. Not sure they can go the whole way again but we shall see.
Rd 19 – v Kangas in Perth – WIN
Rd 20 – v Blues in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 21 – v Crows in Perth – WIN
Rd 22 – v Tigers in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 23 – v Hawks in Perth – WIN
Predicted Finish: 16-6
Collingwood 11-6
Pies fans know how badly their team has been going, despite sitting pretty towards the top of the ladder until Saturday’s big loss to the Giants. Their draw is so-so but there is a very strong chance that they could be as low as 7th at the end of Round 18. Boy they’ll be looking forward to the Suns game to relieve some pressure. Three top eight sides, including one who will be fighting for the finals life and another two who are absolutely flying (Tigers and Bombers). Injuries are destroying the core of the team and while they won’t be a pushover it’s hard to see the Pies mustering more than two more wins for the year.
Rd 19 – v Tigers in Melbourne – LOSE
Rd 20 – v Suns in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 21 – v Melbourne in..yep, Melbourne – WIN
Rd 22 – v Crows in Adelaide – LOSS
Rd 23 – v Bombers in Melbourne – LOSS
Predicted Finish: 13-9
Richmond 11-6
You’d be pretty damn excited if you were a Tigers fan I reckon. The injury list is evaporating before everyone’s eyes and with it… form is returning. They haven’t put a foot wrong the past four weeks and have gone from a “will they play finals?” to “could they make top four?” team. And the answer to that last question is a big, hell yes. Their run home isn’t a gimme by any stretch but they don’t leave the MCG and the two toughest games on their schedule will be played on their home ground, not interstate.
Rd 19 – v Pies in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 20 – v Melbourne in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 21 – v Carlton in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 22 – v Eagles in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 23 – v Lions in Melbourne – WIN
Predicted Finish: 16-6
GWS Giants 10-7
Four-to-six weeks ago the Giants were battling it out for top two, then a raft of injuries decimated them. Despite that they obliterated the Pies last week and they are back on the radar of teams in the hunt. They won’t be getting Josh Kelly or Stephen Coniglio back anytime soon so Leon Cameron is going to have to continue to be creative with his midfield rotations. No such problems up forward where Jeremy Cameron, Harry Himmelberg and co are a threat to every defense. Their run home is exceptional. Three home games and they don’t play a single team in the eight right now.
Rd 19 – v Power in Adelaide – WIN
Rd 20 – v Sydney in .. yep, Sydney – WIN
Rd 21 – v Hawthorn in Sydney – WIN
Rd 22 – v Dogs in Sydney – WIN
Rd 23 – v Suns in Queensland – WIN
Predicted Finish: 15-7
Essendon 10-7
Boy, haven’t the Bombers come from the clouds! The past three weeks they have played in three bonifide eight point games. In all three they have prevailed. As some salty fans have pointed out… had it not been for things not quite going their way in at least two other games, they could be in the top 4 right now. But that’s not how it played out so bad luck. Their formline right now reads LWWWW. Their injuries are bad but not as bad as some other side. Defensive lynchpin Michael Hurley won’t return until around mid-finals. They only face one team in the eight (Pies in Rd 23) so their fate is in their hands.
Rd 19 – v Suns in Queensland – WIN
Rd 20 – v Power in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 21 – v Dogs in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 22 – v Freo in Perth – WIN
Rd 23 – v Pies in Melbourne – WIN
Predicted Finish: 15-7
Adelaide Crows 9-8
I think we can all agree whether the Crows make the finals or not they’re not winning the premiership this year. Too much inconsistency across the board. On Friday night they had a 5 goals lead, which in about 90% of matches will win you the game, regardless of when you gain that lead. But they stopped dead in the water as the Bombers dismantled them in the second half. Their run home is tricky. Similar to the Eagles but with one less home game, they go away, home, away, home, away. Will the real Adelaide Crows please stand up?
Rd 19 – v Blues in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 20 – v Saints in Adelaide – WIN
Rd 21 – v Eagles in Perth – LOSS
Rd 22 – v Pies in Adelaide – WIN
Rd 23 – v Dogs in Melbourne – WIN
Predicted Finish: 12-10
Port Adelaide 8-9
Ah, the old yoyos of the AFL. Well, until last week, when the string was cut, metaphorically speaking! The Power have been sublime at times this year and at others look like they should be on the bottom of the ladder. As expected they lost to the Tigers at the MCG last weekend and their hopes and dreams of finals are now hanging by a thread. Their run home isn’t too bad with three home games but they basically need to win two more games (due to percentage) than the Crows which by our predictions means they need to win 4/5. Can’t see it happening but stranger things have happened.
Rd 19 – v Giants in Adelaide – LOSS
Rd 20 – v Bombers in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 21 – v Sydney in Adelaide – WIN
Rd 22 – v Kangas in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 23 – v Freo in Adelaide – WIN
Predicted Finish: 10-12
Hawthorn 8-9
Bloody Hawthorn. They just won’t go away. In my book after their run of success they can nick off for, oh I don’t know, about a decade – and let some other teams get some glory. But no, they haven’t read the script. With Clarkson still at the helm he’s lifting them off the canvas again. In all honesty three weeks ago when they beat the Pies they looked like rubbish. The only thing that saved them was the Pies being in worse form. Then from nowhere they beat the Cats and all of a sudden everyone is asking “they couldn’t, could they?”. They’ve got a tough draw and as with the Power they will need to win two more games than the Crows – which would mean winning 5/5. I can’t see that happening. Of course if they beat Brisbane this week then look out!
Rd 19 – v Lions in Tassie – LOSS
Rd 20 – v Kangas in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 21 – v Giants in Canberra – LOSS
Rd 22 – v Suns in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 23 – v Eagles in Perth – LOSS
Predicted Finish: 9-13
Fremantle 8-9
Ah Freo. What can you say about them? They were looking amazing when they defeated the Pies at the MCG. The Freo train was just chugging along and then Freo did a Freo. They won the week after the Pies. Nice win. Then they lost to Melbourne and Carlton in successive weeks and then got belted by the Eagles – AGAIN. They’re win over the Swans by a point was like defibrillator to their season. They were dead and buried … and then received a shock to give them the tiniest chance or reaching the finals. Sadly their run home isn’t friendly. Only two home games and both against top eight sides that are marching to September. Their road games are all tricky. This won’t be pretty.
Rd 19 – v Dogs in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 20 – v Cats in Perth – LOSS
Rd 21 – v St Kilda in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 22 – v Bombers in Perth – LOSS
Rd 23 – v Power in Adelaide – LOSS
Predicted Finish: 8-14
Western Bulldogs 8-9
The Dogs, like the Power and Freo, have played some scintillating football this year but, like last weekend, when they needed a win have been found wanting. They’ve re-signed the coach so will that stability catapult them into the finals. Tough to see it happening. Their best is exciting, fast footy. Their worst, well, not so much. The draw is not friendly at all and that’s why I can’t see them making the eight. This weekend’s game against Freo is the only one against a team outside the eight.
Rd 19 – v Freo in Melbourne – WIN
Rd 20 – v Lions in Brisbane – LOSS
Rd 21 – v Bombers in Melbourne – LOSS
Rd 22 – v Giants in Sydney – LOSS
Rd 23 – v Crows in Melbourne – LOSS
Predicted Finish: 9-13
And that’s it…. so how does that shake out…. well not much different from the current ladder really. Obviously the Pies plummet down the ladder but outside of that we’re looking at the following week 1 match ups. For all the hard work the Bombers have done and are likely to do it’s not going to help them much on the ladder. Worse still, if the Pies manage an extra win than we’ve predicted here then the only thing that hard work will have done is got them into the finals (which many would say is good enough).
Likely Week 1 Finals
