After Rd 4, here’s how BigFooty’s exclusive, hyper-accurate* model sees the competition.

📊 Current Rankings

Rank Team Rating Prev Move
1 ↑ Brisbane Lions 1688 2 +1
2 ↓ Western Bulldogs 1685 1 -1
3 ↑ Hawthorn 1654 4 +1
4 ↓ Geelong 1639 3 -1
5 ↑ Fremantle 1614 7 +2
6 ↑ Sydney 1591 9 +3
7 ↑ Adelaide 1589 8 +1
8 ↓ Collingwood 1585 6 -2
9 ↓ Gold Coast 1581 5 -4
10 → Greater Western Sydney 1529 10 0
11 → Melbourne 1488 11 0
12 → Port Adelaide 1430 12 0
13 ↑ St Kilda 1399 14 +1
14 ↑ North Melbourne 1392 15 +1
15 ↓ Carlton 1376 13 -2
16 → West Coast 1263 16 0
17 ↑ Essendon 1256 18 +1
18 ↓ Richmond 1238 17 -1

📈 Biggest Movers

  • 🔼 Sydney (+3)
  • 🔼 Fremantle (+2)
  • 🔼 Brisbane Lions (+1)
  • 🔽 Gold Coast (-4)
  • 🔽 Collingwood (-2)
  • 🔽 Carlton (-2)

Sydney is the biggest riser this week, climbing 3 places after round 3. Gold Coast slides the most, dropping 4 places from last week.

🎯 Predicted Top 4

  1. Brisbane Lions
  2. Western Bulldogs
  3. Hawthorn
  4. Geelong

The model’s current projected top four is Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Geelong. Brisbane Lions hold top spot with a rating edge of 3.0 points over Western Bulldogs – so there’s not too much in it.

⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings

  • Underrated by ladder position: Brisbane Lions (ladder 9, power 1), Geelong (ladder 11, power 4), Adelaide (ladder 13, power 7).
  • Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: North Melbourne (ladder 5, power 14), Gold Coast (ladder 3, power 9), Sydney (ladder 2, power 6).

👀 State of Play

  • Brisbane Lions remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
  • Fremantle round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
  • The strongest upward move belongs to Sydney, who rise 3 places on the back of this week’s results.
  • The biggest fall belongs to Gold Coast, down 4 places compared to the previous round.

🔢 How it works

  • Elo-style rating system
  • Every team starts from a base rating
  • Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
  • Home ground advantage is included
  • Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average
  • Over the season, we’ll be adding, removing, changing bits and pieces. All the stuff you’d expect us to have done before making a ranking list!

📅 Notes

  • Opening Round is treated as Round 0
  • Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round