After Rd 11, here’s how the model sees the competition: higher teams would beat lower teams if they played today.

📊 Current Rankings

Rank Team Rating Prev Move Ladder Ladder Diff
1 → Geelong 1750 1 0 3 +2
2 ↑ Fremantle 1720 3 +1 1 -1
3 ↓ Sydney 1687 2 -1 2 -1
4 ↑ Hawthorn 1650 5 +1 4 0
5 ↓ Brisbane Lions 1612 4 -1 8 +3
6 → Adelaide 1590 6 0 7 +1
7 → Gold Coast 1573 7 0 5 -2
8 → Collingwood 1559 8 0 10 +2
9 ↑ Western Bulldogs 1528 10 +1 9 0
10 ↑ Greater Western Sydney 1526 12 +2 12 +2
11 ↓ Melbourne 1508 9 -2 6 -5
12 ↓ St Kilda 1454 11 -1 11 -1
13 ↑ Carlton 1397 15 +2 15 +2
14 → North Melbourne 1384 14 0 13 -1
15 ↓ Port Adelaide 1374 13 -2 14 -1
16 → Essendon 1231 16 0 18 +2
17 → West Coast 1228 17 0 16 -1
18 → Richmond 1228 18 0 17 -1

📈 Biggest Movers

  • 🔼 Greater Western Sydney (+2)
  • 🔼 Carlton (+2)
  • 🔼 Fremantle (+1)
  • 🔽 Melbourne (-2)
  • 🔽 Port Adelaide (-2)
  • 🔽 Sydney (-1)

Greater Western Sydney is the biggest riser this week, climbing 2 places. Melbourne slides the most, dropping 2 places from last week.

🎯 Predicted Top 4

  • 1. Geelong
  • 2. Fremantle
  • 3. Sydney
  • 4. Hawthorn

The model’s current projected top four is Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn. Geelong hold top spot with a rating edge of 30.2 points over Fremantle.

👀 State of Play

  • Geelong remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
  • Brisbane Lions round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
  • The strongest upward move belongs to Greater Western Sydney, who rise 2 places on the back of this week’s results.
  • The biggest fall belongs to Melbourne, down 2 places compared to the previous round.

⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings

  • Underrated by ladder position: Brisbane Lions (ladder 8, power 5), Geelong (ladder 3, power 1), Collingwood (ladder 10, power 8).
  • Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: Melbourne (ladder 6, power 11), Gold Coast (ladder 5, power 7), Fremantle (ladder 1, power 2).

🔢 How it works

  • Elo-style rating system
  • Every team starts from a base rating
  • Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
  • Home ground advantage is included
  • Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average

📅 Notes

  • Opening Round is treated as Round 0
  • Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round