After Rd 8, here’s how the model sees the AFL comp.

📊 Current Rankings

Rank Team Rating Prev Move Ladder Ladder Diff
1 ↑ Brisbane Lions 1718 2 +1 4 +3
2 ↓ Hawthorn 1714 1 -1 3 +1
3 → Sydney 1699 3 0 1 -2
4 → Fremantle 1673 4 0 2 -2
5 → Geelong 1643 5 0 6 +1
6 → Collingwood 1596 6 0 8 +2
7 → Adelaide 1585 7 0 11 +4
8 ↑ Gold Coast 1564 9 +1 5 -3
9 ↓ Western Bulldogs 1545 8 -1 12 +3
10 → Greater Western Sydney 1500 10 0 14 +4
11 ↑ St Kilda 1477 13 +2 9 -2
12 ↓ Melbourne 1455 11 -1 7 -5
13 ↓ Port Adelaide 1445 12 -1 13 0
14 → North Melbourne 1376 14 0 10 -4
15 → Carlton 1316 15 0 16 +1
16 → Essendon 1281 16 0 17 +1
17 ↑ Richmond 1216 18 +1 18 +1
18 ↓ West Coast 1196 17 -1 15 -3

📈 Biggest Movers

  • 🔼 St Kilda (+2)
  • 🔼 Brisbane Lions (+1)
  • 🔼 Gold Coast (+1)
  • 🔽 Hawthorn (-1)
  • 🔽 Western Bulldogs (-1)
  • 🔽 Melbourne (-1)

St Kilda is the biggest riser this week, climbing 2 places. Hawthorn slides the most, dropping 1 place from last week.

🎯 Predicted Top 4

  • 1. Brisbane Lions
  • 2. Hawthorn
  • 3. Sydney
  • 4. Fremantle

The model’s current projected top four is Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle. Brisbane Lions hold top spot with a rating edge of 4.0 points over Hawthorn.

👀 State of Play

  • Brisbane Lions remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
  • Geelong round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
  • The strongest upward move belongs to St Kilda, who rise 2 places on the back of this week’s results.
  • The biggest fall belongs to Hawthorn, down 1 place compared to the previous round.

⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings

  • Underrated by ladder position: Adelaide (ladder 11, power 7), Greater Western Sydney (ladder 14, power 10), Brisbane Lions (ladder 4, power 1).
  • Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: Melbourne (ladder 7, power 12), North Melbourne (ladder 10, power 14), Gold Coast (ladder 5, power 8).

🔢 How it works

  • Elo-style rating system
  • Every team starts from a base rating
  • Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
  • Home ground advantage is included
  • Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average

📅 Notes

  • Opening Round is treated as Round 0
  • Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round