After Rd 10, here’s how the model sees the AFL clubs relative ability to beat other clubs in round 11.

 

📊 Current Rankings

Rank Team Rating Prev Move Ladder Ladder Diff
1 ↑ Geelong 1720 5 +4 3 +2
2 → Sydney 1717 2 0 1 -1
3 → Fremantle 1708 3 0 2 -1
4 ↓ Brisbane Lions 1677 1 -3 7 +3
5 ↓ Hawthorn 1630 4 -1 6 +1
6 → Adelaide 1610 6 0 8 +2
7 → Gold Coast 1604 7 0 4 -3
8 → Collingwood 1554 8 0 11 +3
9 ↑ Melbourne 1521 11 +2 5 -4
10 ↓ Western Bulldogs 1515 9 -1 10 0
11 ↑ St Kilda 1466 12 +1 9 -2
12 ↓ Greater Western Sydney 1461 10 -2 13 +1
13 → Port Adelaide 1419 13 0 14 +1
14 → North Melbourne 1354 14 0 12 -2
15 → Carlton 1352 15 0 16 +1
16 → Essendon 1263 16 0 17 +1
17 ↑ West Coast 1234 18 +1 15 -2
18 ↓ Richmond 1195 17 -1 18 0

📈 Biggest Movers

  • 🔼 Geelong (+4)
  • 🔼 Melbourne (+2)
  • 🔼 St Kilda (+1)
  • 🔽 Brisbane Lions (-3)
  • 🔽 Greater Western Sydney (-2)
  • 🔽 Hawthorn (-1)

Geelong is the biggest riser this week, climbing 4 places. Brisbane Lions slides the most, dropping 3 places from last week.

🎯 Predicted Top 4

  • 1. Geelong
  • 2. Sydney
  • 3. Fremantle
  • 4. Brisbane Lions

The model’s current projected top four is Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle and Brisbane Lions. Geelong hold top spot with a rating edge of 3.2 points over Sydney.

👀 State of Play

  • Geelong remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
  • Hawthorn round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
  • The strongest upward move belongs to Geelong, who rise 4 places on the back of this week’s results.
  • The biggest fall belongs to Brisbane Lions, down 3 places compared to the previous round.

⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings

  • Underrated by ladder position: Brisbane Lions (ladder 7, power 4), Collingwood (ladder 11, power 8), Geelong (ladder 3, power 1).
  • Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: Melbourne (ladder 5, power 9), Gold Coast (ladder 4, power 7), St Kilda (ladder 9, power 11).

🔢 How it works

  • Elo-style rating system
  • Every team starts from a base rating
  • Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
  • Home ground advantage is included
  • Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average

📅 Notes

  • Opening Round is treated as Round 0
  • Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round