After Rd 9, here’s how the model sees the competition.

Higher teams would beat lower teams if they played today:

📊 Current Rankings

Rank Team Rating Prev Move Ladder Ladder Diff
1 → Brisbane Lions 1722 1 0 4 +3
2 ↑ Sydney 1706 3 +1 1 -1
3 ↑ Fremantle 1701 4 +1 2 -1
4 ↓ Hawthorn 1686 2 -2 3 -1
5 → Geelong 1674 5 0 5 0
6 ↑ Adelaide 1594 7 +1 8 +2
7 ↑ Gold Coast 1587 8 +1 6 -1
8 ↓ Collingwood 1564 6 -2 10 +2
9 → Western Bulldogs 1554 9 0 9 0
10 → Greater Western Sydney 1510 10 0 13 +3
11 ↑ Melbourne 1466 12 +1 7 -4
12 ↓ St Kilda 1454 11 -1 11 -1
13 → Port Adelaide 1436 13 0 14 +1
14 → North Melbourne 1370 14 0 12 -2
15 → Carlton 1313 15 0 16 +1
16 → Essendon 1270 16 0 17 +1
17 → Richmond 1207 17 0 18 +1
18 → West Coast 1185 18 0 15 -3

📈 Biggest Movers

  • 🔼 Sydney (+1)
  • 🔼 Fremantle (+1)
  • 🔼 Adelaide (+1)
  • 🔽 Hawthorn (-2)
  • 🔽 Collingwood (-2)
  • 🔽 St Kilda (-1)

Sydney is the biggest riser this week, climbing 1 place. Hawthorn slides the most, dropping 2 places from last week.

🎯 Predicted Top 4

  • 1. Brisbane Lions
  • 2. Sydney
  • 3. Fremantle
  • 4. Hawthorn

The model’s current projected top four is Brisbane Lions, Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Brisbane Lions hold top spot with a rating edge of 15.9 points over Sydney.

👀 State of Play

  • Brisbane Lions remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
  • Geelong round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
  • The strongest upward move belongs to Sydney, who rise 1 place on the back of this week’s results.
  • The biggest fall belongs to Hawthorn, down 2 places compared to the previous round.

⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings

  • Underrated by ladder position: Brisbane Lions (ladder 4, power 1), Greater Western Sydney (ladder 13, power 10), Adelaide (ladder 8, power 6).
  • Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: Melbourne (ladder 7, power 11), West Coast (ladder 15, power 18), North Melbourne (ladder 12, power 14).

🔢 How it works

  • Elo-style rating system
  • Every team starts from a base rating
  • Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
  • Home ground advantage is included
  • Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average

📅 Notes

  • Opening Round is treated as Round 0
  • Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round