After Rd 12, here’s how the model sees the competition.

📊 Current Rankings

Rank Team Rating Prev Move Ladder Ladder Diff
1 ↑ Fremantle 1745 2 +1 1 0
2 ↓ Geelong 1722 1 -1 4 +2
3 → Sydney 1692 3 0 2 -1
4 → Hawthorn 1672 4 0 3 -1
5 ↑ Adelaide 1590 6 +1 8 +3
6 ↓ Brisbane Lions 1586 5 -1 9 +3
7 → Gold Coast 1573 7 0 5 -2
8 ↑ Greater Western Sydney 1567 10 +2 10 +2
9 → Western Bulldogs 1544 9 0 7 -2
10 ↓ Collingwood 1543 8 -2 11 +1
11 → Melbourne 1468 11 0 6 -5
12 → St Kilda 1432 12 0 12 0
13 → Carlton 1425 13 0 14 +1
14 → North Melbourne 1384 14 0 13 -1
15 → Port Adelaide 1374 15 0 16 +1
16 ↑ West Coast 1260 17 +1 15 -1
17 ↑ Richmond 1222 18 +1 17 0
18 ↓ Essendon 1199 16 -2 18 0

📈 Biggest Movers

  • 🔼 Greater Western Sydney (+2)
  • 🔼 Fremantle (+1)
  • 🔼 Adelaide (+1)
  • 🔽 Collingwood (-2)
  • 🔽 Essendon (-2)
  • 🔽 Geelong (-1)

Greater Western Sydney is the biggest riser this week, climbing 2 places. Collingwood slides the most, dropping 2 places from last week.

🎯 Predicted Top 4

  • 1. Fremantle
  • 2. Geelong
  • 3. Sydney
  • 4. Hawthorn

The model’s current projected top four is Fremantle, Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn. Fremantle hold top spot with a rating edge of 23.0 points over Geelong.

👀 State of Play

  • Fremantle remain number one in the model after 18 teams were ranked this week.
  • Adelaide round out the top five and remain firmly in the finals-quality zone of the table.
  • The strongest upward move belongs to Greater Western Sydney, who rise 2 places on the back of this week’s results.
  • The biggest fall belongs to Collingwood, down 2 places compared to the previous round.

⚖️ Ladder vs Power Rankings

  • Underrated by ladder position: Adelaide (ladder 8, power 5), Brisbane Lions (ladder 9, power 6), Geelong (ladder 4, power 2).
  • Running hotter on the ladder than the power rankings suggest: Melbourne (ladder 6, power 11), Gold Coast (ladder 5, power 7), Western Bulldogs (ladder 7, power 9).

🔢 How it works

  • Elo-style rating system
  • Every team starts from a base rating
  • Ratings adjust based on win/loss, expected result and margin
  • Home ground advantage is included
  • Previous-season ratings are carried forward and regressed toward average

📅 Notes

  • Opening Round is treated as Round 0
  • Updated weekly after the final game of each completed round