Don't forget about him this year... In my opinion, if there is a void to be filled in your foward line, Reiwoldt is your man. In a week or two he is going to be rock bottom at around 315k, which is WAY undervalued for a man of his (DT) ability. Keep in mind this year his average has been massively affected by injuries. In that he is getting injured during games and is getting limited TOG in his return. Wait for him to show that he is fully over his injury, with a solid performance and then jump on, because players of his calibre rarely come at such a price.
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The Ask a No Passengers Member a Question Thread
- Thread starter happy_eagle
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Don't forget about him this year... In my opinion, if there is a void to be filled in your foward line, Reiwoldt is your man. In a week or two he is going to be rock bottom at around 315k, which is WAY undervalued for a man of his (DT) ability. Keep in mind this year his average has been massively affected by injuries. In that he is getting injured during games and is getting limited TOG in his return. Wait for him to show that he is fully over his injury, with a solid performance and then jump on, because players of his calibre rarely come at such a price.
Very timely FJ.
JOSH DRUMMOND
-----------------
Age - 24
Drafted - 2005 R/L elevation
Games - 36
After being elevated from the rookie list in 2005 Drummond played 14 games, following this with 7 games in 2006 and 11 in 2007 due to injury issues in both seasons. This year he has played 4 games, missing 5 others through injury.
Drummonds role in the Lions team is effectively the quarterback. Because of his exceptional left foot and generally good decision making the Lions try to get the ball in his hands as often as possible when coming out of defence. He reads the game well and is always first choice for the Lions when teams are playing a loose man in defence.
Scoring wise, Drummond scores particularly well with marks and kicks because of his role and game reading ability. Last season, prior to his injury in Round 17 he averaged 98 ppw for the 9 matches played including 5 scores over 100 and 2 more in the 90s. His Rd 17 injury and Rd 22 return when not right actually lowered his average last season to 86 ppw.
Whilst it has not happened a great deal as yet, Drummond is potentially a candidate to be tagged off half back similar to Shaw / Burgoyne primarily because of his creativity and disposal. He will certainly be the Lions go to man wherever possible.
The obvious issue is whether he can stand up for the last 13 games. If he does, he will score heavily and certainly average mid 80s or above IMO.
A true case of Risk v Reward where the decision probably should be made based on your trade situation and overall yearly goal (league vs overall win), as well as the level of protection you hold in the defence emergencies.
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I would like to hear what you guys think of Simon Black
- Apr 28, 2007
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I think Black has caught alot of "experienced" DT'ers by surprise. Here's why:
Career average
1998: 46.9
1999: 73.6
2000: 87.5
2001: 94.3
2002: 88.1
2003: 89.6
2004: 83.1
2005: 77.3
2006: 88.8
2007: 81.3
2008 (so far): 99.1
Talk about spotting the odd one out! Black hasn't averaged above 90 for a season since 2001, and since the Lions "golden era" his DT scores have shown a downward trend. So many coaches overlooked him preseason, because he seemed to fit into the class of players you don't want in your team - that is, player who have passed their peak and are now in the twilight of their careers.
But then he goes and pulls out 7 games of 90+ in his first 8 this season! I haven't watched all of Brisbane's games, so I don't know exactly what's caused his stats boost, but here are some possible explanations:
1) He's simply getting more of the pill. Average disposals up from 22 to 27 disposals per game. If a player is getting more of the ball, naturally their average will increase.
BEWARE - common mistake: When looking at averages, be wary of any outliers - freakish games that push up a player's average. Black's 2008 average has not been boosted by one or two great games, ALL of his games have been higher than his average of 81 for last season. This is a good sign that he actually has improved overall.
2) He's getting more marks. Its not much, but so far he is averaging +2 marks per game than he was last season. That's +6 DT points per game on average. It seems trivial, but it all adds up. This may be due to a change of strategy in the Brisbane team, or maybe Black's role has changed to more of a true 'centre' rather than a rover (aka "packman").
3) TJ. Its possible that Travis Johnstone's addition to the team has actually freed up Black to play a different game style. I noticed in the Bris v Port game, Port's tagger Kane Cornes was moved off Black onto TJ in the second half because he was having so much influence. This allowed Black a greater degree of freedom. He finished the game with 108 points.
A word of caution, though. If you're thinking about picking up Simon Black now, then you might want to take a look at some figures from last season:
First 9 rounds: Average of 97.3
Last 12 rounds (missed 1 game): Average of 69.3
After a solid start to the season (including 4 consecutive tons from Rd6-9), Black really dropped off in the second half of the season. I'm not sure what caused this, and I'm not to say it will happen again this season, but its probably a good thing to keep in mind.
Last year, there was a guy on these boards who said that for the past few seasons he had formed a habit of picking up Black from Round 1, then trading him out at the halfway mark for Adam Goodes (who generally finishes the season well - the opposite to Black). I'm not sure whether he was dinkum or not, but it sure would have worked last season!
So they are the numbers for Black. Make of it what you will. Personally, I would not consider Black in the same class as the elite midfielders - Corey/Bartel/Ablett/Kornes/Swan/Cross/Thompson. At this stage of the season you'd be aiming to pick up one of those preferably. Seeing that Black is around the same price as those guys, I don't think he is viable upgrade option at this stage.
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Nice point Jim.
As a small sidelight there is an interesting history with a few players worth noting however in relation to first / second half year averages. The obvious ones are well documented such as Goodes and many of the power forwards whose average is well up in the back half of the season.
Dean Cox is one less well known who has averaged between 10-20 points less each season in the back half of the year to the first half.
which midfielder should i pick up, can get anyone and already have:
Bartel, Cornes, Stevens, McLean, Palmer.... Think my best options are...
Corey
Swan
Priddis
Cross
Thompson
Goodwin
Hayes
any suggestions?
Bartel, Cornes, Stevens, McLean, Palmer.... Think my best options are...
Corey
Swan
Priddis
Cross
Thompson
Goodwin
Hayes
any suggestions?
- Apr 28, 2007
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I'd consider both to be a level below the premium forwards. They are both inconsistent, Fev has the greater scoring capacity but Thomas has the most room for improvement.
Ideally, neither would be in your side by Round 22. As to who is better, I would say it depends on the upgrade options available. Basically, I'd consider them both as upgradeable. Let's say in 3 weeks' time Fev hits some form and his value rises to $350k, at the same time Chapman is coming back into some form and is priced at $380k. I'd probably upgrade Fev to Chapman.
You've got to consider the expected weekly points increase, and then multiply that by the remainding rounds to determine your predicted total points gain. Then consider how much the upgrade will cost you.
The value of a trade will be found when comparing those two figures. E.g. if this upgrade made you, say 30 points increase per week (e.g. Fev predicted to av 75, chapman 105) then your predicted points gain is 30 x 10 = 300. If it only costs you $30 then that sounds like a good investment to me.
Rather than thinking about "is this player better than that player" you've got to ask yourself - do i want to keep this player? If no, then its all about finding the best time to get rid of them. Consider not only the price of your player, but also the price of the player you're targeting. And remember that every round you wait you will potentially lose points on the upgrade.
OO74812
Debutant
What's happening to Stanton? He is really pissing me off. Do I get rid of him?
If you have an elite team it must be horses for courses as you would have a number of guns.
I for example rotate my skipper between Cross, Swan , Bartel , Pavlich and Franklin depending on who they are playing
Never trade a big gun who isn't injuried until you have completed all other more serious upgrades firstly. He is quality so I would give him until finals in your league and then maybe if still struggling and u have completed all other upgrades then pull the trigger
I had him from day 1 and picked on the basis that once upon a time he was the number 1 dteam player. He isn't going to recapture that form but he is pure quality
He has to much strapping for me... guy is playing injured so safer choices, Richo to expensive and to old and now carrying an injury so for me it is Murphy easy
Still has OP issues so steer clear
OO74812
Debutant
Thanx for the tip.
Also, Who should I trade Awyn Davey for?
I have 60K in the bank.
I was thinking Valenti but I'm not sure.
Help?
Advice Required:
Current Team:
BACKS - C.Cornes, Shaw, Kennelly, McLeod, Goddard, Gilbee, Ibbotson (Hartlett, N.Brown)
MIDS - K.Cornes, Ablett, Judd, Goodes, Stevens, Palmer (Browne, Bird)
RUCKS - Cox, Simmonds (Kreuzer, Gardiner)
FORWARDS - J.Brown, B.Johnson, Riewoldt, Pavlich, Chapman, Franklin, Gamble (Tippett, C.Stokes)
$49200 in bank with 8 trades left.
Plan to trade one of my ruckmen later in the season (near finals) to any 72k ruckman provided my other 3 are playing and use that cash for the final "top ups".
Have some major concerns with my 7th forward of Gamble/Tippett if they have another week like last week.
Could trade them both for Valenti and someone like Giansiracusa or S.Johnson but am worried that a Valenti/C.Stokes bench may leave me with 2 non-playing reserves later in the season.
Also worried about the long term future of my midfield Bench of Bird and Browne so perhaps Cotchin should come in for Bird?
Any suggestions? If I trade one of Gamble or Tippett, which one should I trade?
Current Team:
BACKS - C.Cornes, Shaw, Kennelly, McLeod, Goddard, Gilbee, Ibbotson (Hartlett, N.Brown)
MIDS - K.Cornes, Ablett, Judd, Goodes, Stevens, Palmer (Browne, Bird)
RUCKS - Cox, Simmonds (Kreuzer, Gardiner)
FORWARDS - J.Brown, B.Johnson, Riewoldt, Pavlich, Chapman, Franklin, Gamble (Tippett, C.Stokes)
$49200 in bank with 8 trades left.
Plan to trade one of my ruckmen later in the season (near finals) to any 72k ruckman provided my other 3 are playing and use that cash for the final "top ups".
Have some major concerns with my 7th forward of Gamble/Tippett if they have another week like last week.
Could trade them both for Valenti and someone like Giansiracusa or S.Johnson but am worried that a Valenti/C.Stokes bench may leave me with 2 non-playing reserves later in the season.
Also worried about the long term future of my midfield Bench of Bird and Browne so perhaps Cotchin should come in for Bird?
Any suggestions? If I trade one of Gamble or Tippett, which one should I trade?
It is time you upgraded Gamble to R Murphy, via turning Bird into Cottchin
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Thanx for the tip.
Also, Who should I trade Awyn Davey for?
I have 60K in the bank.
I was thinking Valenti but I'm not sure.
Help?
Ideally you could upgrade AD into a 90+ point fwd via downgrading a cash cow from the mids into someone like Trent Cotchin
Solid theory.
If you're worried about 2 non-playing reserves - don't do it. Hold one. You're doing it in the ruck division, why not in the forwards?
If you're worried about Bird, trade him. He's made you money, he's getting limited TOG. Do you see that changing? Do you rate Cotchin as a better point scorer than Bird?
Is Davey one of your starting 7 forwards? If so, trade up, not down. If he's on the pine, that's a waste of moolah, so trade - either down to Valenti if you have a solid forward line and coverage in the 8th forward spot, if not - trade up. This is the time of the season where you should ideally be working on getting your team close to complete.Thanx for the tip.
Also, Who should I trade Awyn Davey for?
I have 60K in the bank.
I was thinking Valenti but I'm not sure.
Help?
jezza you beauty
Senior List
Looking to trade jack down to either cotchin or wellingham and dew out for valenti. should have picked up wellingham last week, but even this week he's still looking like good value whilst cotchin hasnt really set the DT world on fire yet (all be it in only 2 games). Who would you recomend out of wellingham and cotchin this week? they would be filling the 6th/7th spot in the mids
Thanks for the feedback.
Trading Bird to Cotchin only frees up an extra 57,400 which would mean Gamble could only be traded for a forward up to 317,400 or am I missing something here?
Any suggestions on forwards under 317,400 that are an upgrade over Gamble? I can't see too many that would be considered a significant upgrade - best bet would perhaps be Dale Thomas?
i am looking to upgrade houli > bartel/ murphy. my question is. do i trade them in this round or wait another week? with houli's b/e around 80 and bartels 140 and murphy with a 54 in his sytsem i'm likely to make 15-20k. where do you draw the line between making money and making 30 more points?
