Will we make finals?!

[The Donners]

Win the next 2 and I'd say we'll make it.

I can see us beating Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane, West Coast, Fremantle, and Richmond.

I'd give us a chance against Sydney and a chance against Hawthorn.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Win the next 2 and I'd say we'll make it.

I can see us beating Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane, West Coast, Fremantle, and Richmond.

I'd give us a chance against Sydney and a chance against Hawthorn.

Um...

If we beat Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane, West Coast, Fremantle, and Richmond...

We don't need to beat any of the others to make the 8.

Just sayin'.

However, even if we lose to either Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, who's to say we won't take one back against Sydney, or Hawthorn?

That's the reason I'm jumping ship when it's 'mathematically' impossible, not the other way around. Because anything can happen, it's why I love the game.

 

[The Donners]

Um...

If we beat Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane, West Coast, Fremantle, and Richmond...

We don't need to beat any of the others to make the 8.

Just sayin'.

I meant we're a good chance of winning those games and just a chance to beat Hawks and Swans.

However, even if we lose to either Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, who's to say we won't take one back against Sydney, or Hawthorn?

Exactly. I predicted we'd be 5 and 6 at this stage of the season in the pre-season (I got the games wrong though, I tipped us to lose to Hawthorn, Richmond and Collingwood but to beat North, Brisbane and Adelaide) and that we'd finish on 12 wins. I couldn't give a rats toss bag if I get the wins wrong again, so long as there's 7 of them!

That's the reason I'm jumping ship when it's 'mathematically' impossible, not the other way around. Because anything can happen, it's why I love the game.

Very true, think someone mentioned it, Hawks game could be the decider. I just feel Hawks will get us next time around... though I thought they would the first time also!

 

[Call Me Cake]

Very true, think someone mentioned it, Hawks game could be the decider. I just feel Hawks will get us next time around... though I thought they would the first time also!

Hawks are doing so badly, if current trends continue... I don't see them recouping that much. With our pace, I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up favourites by then.

They're actually worse off now than they were the last time we played them.

 

[Donakebab]

I hate these threads, why even both asking them. Go shake a magic 8 ball, the answer will be just as good.

 

[Call Me Cake]

I hate these threads, why even both asking them. Go shake a magic 8 ball, the answer will be just as good.

If you hate these threads then why post in them?

Ignore them. Simple.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Knights just gave Fletcher, Welsh & Winderlich the all clear.

They're pitching to get Slattery back real soon too, 'cos he isn't looking too bad.

We're in for a big second half.

 

[AndyLesPaul]

BUMP
7-6 with at least 5 games (albeit with good percentage) we need to win to make finals.

The Run Home
Collingwood - I can just see us winning this. W
Sydney - Sydney are quite vulnerable, though it is away. ?
Western Bulldogs - Currently don't see us winning this, who knows though. L?
Richmond - Finals-Hungry Essendon can't possibly lose this. W
West Coast - Seeing as this is at Subi, there would be quite a bit of doubt. W?
Brisbane Lions - This match is in Melbourne, we should be able to give them a proper rematch ?
St Kilda - You'd have to say this is the least likely match we'll win in the coming weeks. L
Fremantle - We've beaten Freo at Subi before under Knight's reign. (The only away game we've won aswell.) W
Hawthorn - Unless Hawthorn returns to playing like the Premiership side they are, I don't see them winning this. W

This highly optimistic run home would mean we reach the finals rather comfortably.

 

[stay true]

The games the week after the interstate trips are usually the worries.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

The games the week after the interstate trips are usually the worries.

Like the Freo and Hawthorn games?

 

[raskolnikov]

I have a feeling Collingwood will win next week. They will want to atone for ANZAC Day.

I really think we should beat Sydney even if it is up there. The Bulldogs game is closer to 50-50 than most people think. We gave them a run last year when we had no fit players on the bench. Richmond is a definite if we are serious about making the finals. Brisbane in Melbourne is 50-50. St.Kilda probable loss but not conceding defeat. They have to lose at some stage during the year. We have to win one of the WA games. If we do it will probably come down to the last round against Hawthorn. It will be a huge game for both sides probably.

Anyway, as the old cliche goes, it's one week at a time. We all know that the Dons have an uncanny habit of winning the ones we shouldn't and losing the ones we shouldn't.

 

[stay true]

Like the Freo and Hawthorn games?

Brisbane after Eagles at Subi and Hawks after Freo at Subi.

I was generally speaking ofcourse.

 

[eth-dog]

Brisbane after Eagles at Subi and Hawks after Freo at Subi.

I was generally speaking ofcourse.

and Doggies after Sydney at SCG/ANZ

 

[lamaros]

The Run Home
Collingwood - Very tough game. They will have a better team on the park and we'll have to keep ourselves up after a big win. We've struggles to play 2 big games in a row, so I'm going to say Collingwood are probably favourites. L?
Sydney - SCG gives Sydney a chance, and we have not played well away this year. Still I think it's a good time for us to play them. W?
Western Bulldogs - Tough one. Going to say the Dogs deserve to be favourites though. L
Richmond - Should win if we want to be taken seriously. W
West Coast - Subi makes it tough, but we might be going for finals and them playing the kids at this stage. W?
Brisbane Lions - 50/50 I think. Depends how many of their injured player get back for this one. ?
St Kilda - Unless St Kilda fall apart this one is tough to win. L
Fremantle - Should win if we're worth a top 8 spot, but away and Freeo are a risk. W?
Hawthorn - I think Hawks will get back to finals form. L?

So I have us at 7 wins at best and 1 at worst. 4 will be the finals fringe so I hope we can get 5+.

 

[adii_7]

The Run Home
Collingwood - Very tough game. They will have a better team on the park and we'll have to keep ourselves up after a big win. We've struggles to play 2 big games in a row, so I'm going to say Collingwood are probably favourites. L?
Sydney - SCG gives Sydney a chance, and we have not played well away this year. Still I think it's a good time for us to play them. W?
Western Bulldogs - Tough one. Going to say the Dogs deserve to be favourites though. L
Richmond - Should win if we want to be taken seriously. W
West Coast - Subi makes it tough, but we might be going for finals and them playing the kids at this stage. W?
Brisbane Lions - 50/50 I think. Depends how many of their injured player get back for this one. ?
St Kilda - Unless St Kilda fall apart this one is tough to win. L
Fremantle - Should win if we're worth a top 8 spot, but away and Freeo are a risk. W?
Hawthorn - I think Hawks will get back to finals form. L?

So I have us at 7 wins at best and 1 at worst. 4 will be the finals fringe so I hope we can get 5+.

reading that, we should win all of those games... i dont like freo @ subi, but we should win that. going to have a nibble on essendon to make the top 4...

we will beat pies, WCE, Brisbane, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Richmond.

 

[Enki]

Hmm, we always did have a bit of a hard draw this year. I'd say we can win 4 of those, which would put us close depending on how other teams play, but we might need to win more than that to make finals. If we can take a win or two where we are the underdogs then we will be in a much better position. Still not sure we can, but hopeful.

 

[Call Me Cake]

I say beat the Pies and we're in for a treat. They don't scare me.

Also, I aim to win every game, and that's what the team should do. To me, every game is winnable on our day. Except maybe, St Kilda. But anything can happen and I ain't ruling finals out until it's mathematically impossible.

 

[Burzum]

the run home
collingwood - very tough game. They will have a better team on the park and we'll have to keep ourselves up after a big win. We've struggles to play 2 big games in a row, so i'm going to say collingwood are probably favourites. l?
sydney - scg gives sydney a chance, and we have not played well away this year. Still i think it's a good time for us to play them. w?
western bulldogs - tough one. Going to say the dogs deserve to be favourites though. l
richmond - should win if we want to be taken seriously. w
west coast - subi makes it tough, but we might be going for finals and them playing the kids at this stage. w?
brisbane lions - 50/50 i think. Depends how many of their injured player get back for this one. ?
st kilda - unless st kilda fall apart this one is tough to win. l
fremantle - should win if we're worth a top 8 spot, but away and freeo are a risk. w?
hawthorn - i think hawks will get back to finals form. l?

so i have us at 7 wins at best and 1 at worst. 4 will be the finals fringe so i hope we can get 5+.

l
w
l
w
w
w
l
w
l

12-10

 

[Jobe Watson]

With Hawthorn losing tonight, we're a pretty good chance. Hawks and Port are really the only teams that can knock us out. Hawks have a shocking run home while Port have a pretty easy back half (including games against Melbourne, Freo, West Coast and Kangas). Sydney are a chance but I don't think they'll be good enough.

A win next week against the Pies will be vital to our finals hopes.

 

[fishguts]

We should pretty much make it bar some disaster.

Hawks have a horror run home.

Port's percentage is shot with Geelong tomorrow. (worth a game) so that would effectively put us 2 wins ahead.

Sydney isn't close enough is Roos said last week a loss against Adelaide would result in a youth policy.

 

[bomberfan101]

Barry Hall will miss the game against us, so the Sydney game looks a tiny bit easier now

 

[Ben the Gooner]

http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

Give it a shot.

I have us needing to lose the last game against Hawthorn for Carlton to make the finals. Should make for some interesting viewing.

West Coast to mysteriously lose to Richmond in the last round, with both teams finishing on 4 wins.

The ladder if we lose to Hawthorn:

#    Team            Pl      W       L       D       PF      PA      Perc    Pts        
1       St Kilda       22     21    1    0    2267    1499    151.23    84
2       Geelong        22    21    1    0    2564    1748    146.68    84
3       W Bulldogs     22     16    6    0    2451    2010    121.94    64
4       Adelaide       22     15    7    0    2066    1913    108.00    60
5       Bris Lions     22     14    8    0    2158    1937    111.41    56
6       Essendon       22     13    9    0    2152    2019    106.59    52
7       Collingwood    22     12    10    0    2107    1952    107.94    48
8       Hawthorn       22     11    11    0    1992    2070    96.23    44
9       Carlton        22    10    12    0    2138    2024    105.63    40
10      Sydney         22    9    13    0    1874    1956    95.81    36
11      Port Adel      22     8    13    1    1887    2182    86.48    34
12      Nth Melb       22     8    14    0    1722    2060    83.59    32
13      Fremantle      22     6    15    1    1781    2248    79.23    26
14      West Coast     22     4    18    0    1799    2145    83.87    16
15      Richmond       22     4    18    0    1738    2274    76.43    16
16      Melbourne      22     3    19    0    1594    2253    70.75    12

and if we help ********:

#    Team            Pl    W    L    D    PF    PA    Perc    Pts        
 1    St Kilda        22    21    1    0    2277    1499    151.90    84
 2    Geelong        22    21    1    0    2564    1748    146.68    84
 3    W Bulldogs      22    16    6    0    2451    2010    121.94    64
 4    Adelaide        22    15    7    0    2066    1913    108.00    60
 5    Bris Lions      22    14    8    0    2158    1937    111.41    56
 6    Essendon        22    14    8    0    2172    2019    107.58    56
 7    Collingwood     22    12    10    0    2107    1952    107.94    48
 8    Carlton         22    10    12    0    2138    2024    105.63    40
 9    Hawthorn        22    10    12    0    1992    2090    95.31    40
10    Sydney          22    9    13    0    1874    1956    95.81    36
11    Port Adel       22    8    13    1    1887    2182    86.48    34
12    Nth Melb        22    8    14    0    1722    2060    83.59    32
13    Fremantle       22    6    15    1    1781    2248    79.23    26
14    West Coast      22    4    18    0    1799    2145    83.87    16
15    Richmond        22    4    18    0    1738    2274    76.43    16
16    Melbourne       22    3    19    0    1594    2263    70.44    12

I couldn't let anyone go through undefeated.

 

[eth-dog]

I did it, we finished 6th, and I had WB beating Geelong and St. Kilda, with the cats getting up this round

 

[lamaros]

Still hold by what I said two weeks ago. If we win tomorrow we'll make finals, if we lose it will run close, but I think we'll still be a 60/40 chance. If we get smashed it'll be a 40/60 chance.

I've done the predicted ladder fro three weeks in a row, a couple of times each week. I still have 12 wins being safe in the 8 and 11 + percentage getting in most of the time.

Bombers are looking at 11-14 wins I would say.

 

[Call Me Cake]

6th.

Keep in mind, I had us lose to Collingwood.

Along the way I predict we'll lose to the Bulldogs. I even had us lose to Brisbane in Melbourne. Had Carlton beating Freo.

If we beat the Pies, it's all smooth sailing from there I tell you.

I also predict St Kilda losing to Geelong, and Geelong losing to the Bulldogs. But these don't make an impact on our position anyway.

To be honest, I'd even be happy with 8th.