AFL Premiership Round 6
Carlton V Collingwood
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Sunday May 2
MCG 2:10 PM (Local Time)
Melbourne Forecast Melbourne Radar
Ladder:
Season Win/Loss
Carlton V Collingwood
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Sunday May 2
MCG 2:10 PM (Local Time)
Melbourne Forecast Melbourne Radar
Ladder:
Season Win/Loss
What a fortnight of footy. First Essendon, now Carlton.
Collingwood face Carlton in Round 6 Rivalry Round and is shaping up to be a cracking matchup. Collingwood is coming off consecutive 60 point victories, whilst Carlton is backing up from a terrific victory against the reigning premiers in Geelong and a convincing victory in Adelaide against the Crows.
So both teams are in top form and will be looking to cement a top 8 spot early. The ladder again is even, and for the first time in quite a while, the top 4 does not look so certain. So there is much to play for this Sunday. Any Collingwood fan would tell you that a year is a success if the Pies can knock of Essendon and Carlton. For Carlton however, having already lost to Essendon, the prospect of a loss to Collingwood would seem too hard to swallow.
2 weeks are definitely a long time in football. It was only 2 weeks ago where Carlton were 1 win a 2 losses, having lost in ugly fashion to the Bombers. The knives were out and all looked lost. Now, as we enter Round 6, Carlton now sits 3 wins and 2 losses and is playing its best football again.
So what has turned it around?
First of all, you can’t go past the return of Chris Judd. Judd returned in Round 4 and his presence was immediately felt against the Adelaide Crows. Despite not playing the first 3 rounds, Judd put in a strong pre-season and returned very sharp. Carlton’s midfield is good without Judd, but I think his presence adds toughness. He has a greater ability to carry a tagger, which in turn frees up Murphy and Mclean, and allows Gibbs to float across half back. He also brings leadership to a young side.
Secondly, Ratten re-arranged his forward line. And it has worked. Initially, Ratten went in with a reasonably tall forward line. Guys like Kreuzer and Waite were playing forward, alongside O’Hailpin and Henderson. It didn’t work. As a response, Waite was dropped, Kreuzer went back to a predominantly rucking role, and Garlett was brought in to play as a 3rd small forward alongside Yarran and Betts. Simpson has also moved mainly forward. With such a quick and talented midfield, the small forwards have thrived and the forward line has looked incredibly open. Geelong were totally lost on how to defend the smalls, and they were forced to throw Taylor forward and Mooney back. The Blues totally re-arranged the Cats.
Thirdly, Carlton went with a surprisingly smaller backline. The Cats played 3 permanent tall forwards. Yet Carlton went in with only Jamison as a key defender. Walker was used on Hawkins. He then ran off him to devastating effect, and was the leading possession winner on the ground until he did his shoulder. Guys like Russell, Armfield, Gibbs and the rookie Simon White have been responsible for big defensive jobs, but have also won quite a lot of the ball. White in particular has had to face Burton and Podsiadly in consecutive weeks and has held up.
Collingwood as well has seen a forward line re-shuffle. Chris Dawes came into the side last week to play as a big-bodied full forward. Immediately, Travis Cloke seemed to stand taller and he kicked 4 goals. Josh Fraser also seemed more at home, as he moved to a forward flank and played as the 3rd tall. This is the role in which Josh Fraser played his best football in 2002. He kicked 3 goals last week in this role. Further, Didak, Davis and Medhurst are spending much more time forward. Though Davis and Medhurst are yet to hit their full straps, Didak was back to his best last week and totally dominated. Collingwood also possesses fantastic small forwards, but I love the look of the forward line with a guy like Chris Dawes in it. Dawes was able to kick 2 late goals to make his stats column look quite nice, but he was also the 2nd highest contested ball winner on the ground and was part of the chain in Cloke’s first 2 goals.
So both sides have addressed obvious flaws in their structures to great effect. I still think Collingwood’s 22 runs a lot deeper, and the defence in particular is much stronger. However, the talent of the Carlton midfield, the dangerous small forwards and creative defenders makes them a dangerous side. Carlton perhaps has the greater talent, but Collingwood is far more even. It will be interesting to see which prevails.
Recent History
The two meetings last year could not have been in starker contrast. The last meeting in Round 17 saw Collingwood come away resounding 54 point winners. Yet in Round 8, it was Collingwood who were on the receiving end of a pounding, with Carlton comfortable 51 point winners. Though it is a bit hard to read too far into either of these games, as Collingwood was very undermanned in Round 8, and Carlton was not playing their best footy in Round 17.
In Round 17, Dane Swan was in his devastating best form picking up 38 disposals and polling the 3 votes. Leon Davis was also very damaging with 3 goals, picking up the 2 votes. Surprisingly, it was Simon Prestigiacomo who polled the 1 vote, managing to hold Fevola to only 1 goal and 7 possessions. Ben Johnson and Dale Thomas were also very good in their combined tagging job on Chris Judd, holding him to 20 disposals.
In Round 8, it was Chris Judd who was at his dominant best, picking up 32 disposals and the 3 votes. Eddie Betts was quiet, but still managed to kick 4 goals. The other vote getters on the day were Bryce Gibbs and Waite. Waite in particular was very good, kicking 3 important goals and really ripping the Magpies apart forward and back. Prestigiacomo was again very good, holding Fev goal-less, however Fevola was struggling with a bruised heel.
In 2008, Carlton won both encounters against the Pies. There is no doubt that recent history has shown that Carlton has enjoyed playing the Magpies and has got on top in the midfield. However, Round 17 may have put an end to that, and the Collingwood midfield has come a long way in this time.
At the Selection Table
At the time of writing this, team-sheets are not out. As team-sheets are released, I will put them into the preview.
For now, the major selection news for Carlton will be who replaces Walker, who will miss 2 months with another shoulder injury. This is surprisingly good news for Walker, who will escape another major season ending operation, but is a blow to Carlton who were benefiting from his run off half back.
Waite and Bower look closest to selection. Waite because he dominated Collingwood last year and can play either end. Bower because he should be close to returning from injury and is perhaps Carlton’s most important defender along with Jamison. Thornton will also be close to selection, whilst Hadley and Grigg continue to impress in the VFL.
For Collingwood, Prestigiacomo will miss another week, most likely leaving the major defensive posts to Nathan Brown and Reid. Collingwood has to be careful to not go in too tall as Geelong did. However, Carlton are still likely to play both O’Hailpin and Henderson forward. Ben Reid did come off last week with a sore ankle, so may be in some doubt. If this is the case, Tyson Goldsack had a very impressive week in the VFL and looks a good versatile matchup for either a tall or small.
Malthouse has flagged new names coming into the team. So expect a few surprise changes in the upcoming weeks. Names like Blight, Buckley and Wood could get their opportunity as Malthouse looks to rotate his senior players. Lockyer, Leigh Brown and O’Bree are unlikely to break back into the side immediately.
Tactics
There is little doubt what Carlton will try to do. With a small forward line and small defensive line, they will be take the game on, look to take risks and look to spot up targets on the lead inside 50.
This worked a treat against Geelong. However, there are a few points I would like to make about their win.
It was the second game in a row that Carlton have beaten Geelong comfortably. The reason is that Geelong play their style of game regardless of the opposition. They play all out attack. Carlton also attack hard, so it very much becomes a shoot-out, and best midfield wins. Though on paper, I still believe Geelong have the better midfield, the one thing you can’t let Carlton do is let their midfield run free. They are far too talented and quick. Geelong initially tagged Murphy, and went head to head on Judd. By the time they changed this matchup, it was too late, and Murphy played on a wing and was too quick for Ling.
I don’t think Collingwood is going to allow Carlton this run. Geelong did, because they simply back themselves to be better. Collingwood will look to force a lot more stoppages and will zone the Carlton defence to try and force errors. The Geelong zone had no effect last week, so it will be interesting to see how Collingwood’s goes. Both Essendon and Hawthorn had absolutely no luck breaking through the Collingwood zone, which is operating brilliantly.
I had a look at the Collingwood zone last week. They send everyone up forward, covering right to the 60 metre mark. This leaves 3 or 4 opposition forwards sitting loose. Essendon were unable to get through the zone regularly enough to make use of these players. But on the 2 occasions its did, the Bombers were able to get very easy goals. Guys like Gibbs and Scotland become very important for Carlton as they are likely to play across half back and their foot-skills are the sort of thing that breaks up a zone.
Key Matchups
Carlton forward line:
O’Hailpin v Nathan Brown – Setanta has had a quiet month, but kicked the sealer against the Cats last week. He is important to the Blues because he presents and provides some crumbs. But he can do some pretty bad things as well.
Henderson v Reid – Henderson actually looked most at home last week when he went into defence. The Blues may actually look to send him back in the place of Walker, and bring in another midfielder or small forward. But in planning for the Blues, I think you have to presume he will start forward, where Reid is a good size matchup.
Betts v O’Brien – Harry will continue to play on the dangerous small forwards, and there are none right now more dangerous than Betts. He is enjoying playing alongside Yarran and Garlett, and knows he is the leader of this trio. He has stepped up in the absence of Fevola. Harry’s form continues to impress, and he provides a lot of run. He blanketing defensive work has been a highlight. He will have a huge job on Sunday.
Yarran v Toovey – Yarran has proved a lot of his critics wrong this year. He was disappointing in 2009, but has really improved his fitness base and is kicking goals. He is growing in confidence at this level as well. Toovey has been average in 2010, but his ANZAC Day game was brilliant. I thought he was close to BOG up until half time. He is perhaps the only one with the pace to run with Yarran. Will be a good matchup to watch.
Midfield
Judd v Johnson/Thomas – I think Mick will go with the same matchup. Johnson has been in terrific form, and Thomas has been Collingwood’s best in 2010. So I doubt Collingwood is going to use either of these guys super defensively. But they will look to attack Judd. Johnson may be responsible for the tight tagging, with Thomas trying to run off. Judd is in terrific form and loves the big stage. Planning for him becomes Collingwood’s most important task.
Ball v Mclean – When playing Carlton, you can’t allow them to win at the stoppages because there outsiders are classy. Ball will go head to head against Mclean in the battle of the 2 midfield off-season recruits. Both have improved as the season’s gone on and it will be a great matchup. Neither gives an inch around the clearances.
Murphy v Wellingham – I think Sharrod has to play defensively on Murphy, who is now fully over his pre-season injury concerns and is playing his best footy. Murphy was dominant last week, and enjoys playing Collingwood. On the other hand, Wellingham has been the surprise packet of 2010. His pace and skill has really added to the Collingwood midfield, and he has strung together 5 really good games. He was again very good on ANZAC Day. His pace and tackling pressure means Malthouse has also used him in tagging roles. Last week he went onto Watson and curbed his influence. He also tagged Griffen out of the game in round 1.
Swan v Carrazzo – Carrazzo has been very good for Carlton. His footskills will never be a highlight, but he is such a good ball-winner, and generally does the right thing with the ball. He will most likely play defensively against Swan, and try to win a bit of the ball himself. Swan is not at his best right now, and is not working as hard as he did last year. But he is receiving a lot more attention. He has still been valuable, and was good against Carlton last year. I think he will continue to work his way into the season, and hit his peak around Round 9.
Pendlebury v Gibbs – Ratten may elect to use Gibbs predominantly across half back, but he may also use him head to head against Pendlebury. Both these players are their respective sides class factor. Pendlebury just won the ANZAC Day medal and has really returned to his best form in the last 2 rounds. Gibbs continues to get jobs and is very serviceable for his coach. Last week, he was very assured across half back. Would be a great matchup to see these 2 go head to head.
Collingwood Forward Line
Medhurst v Jamison – Interesting to see what Carlton do with Jamison. He typically blankets Medhurst out of the game. However, if the Blues do not bring back Waite, Thornton or Bower, then he may be required to go onto Cloke or Dawes. Medhurst has been serviceable but not dominant. I think the best is just around the corner, but if he does get the Jamison matchup, expect him to struggle. Jamo is a very underrated defender with great closing speed.
Didak v Joseph – Joseph was well beaten by Ablett last week, but still was their best matchup. He is likely to do a tight tagging job on the in form Didak. Carlton have no problem if players drag Joseph forward, which is what I think Didak will elect to do.
Cloke v Bower/Waite/White – I think Carlton will bring one of Bower or Waite back. If they do, expect them to get the Cloke matchup. If not, Ratten has shown no fear throwing the big task to Simon White. Cloke has returned to his best form since the St.Kilda match, and finally found his range in front of goal last week. Cloke is so important to Collingwood, and perhaps looms as the most important player on the field on Sunday. The reason is that neither team has a dominant key forward, so if Cloke fires then he will be the most damaging big man on the field.
Davis v Armfield – Armfield was absolutely terrific last week playing on Byrnes. Totally blanketed him, and worked hard in attack as well. Expect him to get the job on Leon Davis who looks as if he is struggling fitness wise. I think he hurt himself in the St.Kilda game, and has not been at full pace. He is still very dangerous, but is not finishing as we expect. He has a knack of playing well against Carlton, so expect Armfield to play him very closely.
Ruck
It’s going to be a very interesting contest in the ruck. Jolly found his form last week and was very good around the stoppages. He had a hand in a few goals purely though his ruck work. However, the fitness of Warnock has been a huge plus for Carlton. Warnock is a monster and much taller than Jolly. He is also quite good around the ground. Expect Jolly and Warnock to go head to head, with Kreuzer doing the ruckwork against Fraser.
Fraser has admitted that he admires Kreuzer a lot. He kind of sees Kreuzer as the modern day version of himself, when he too was recruited at pick 1. I think Kreuzer has the edge on Fraser as he is stronger and fitter. However, Josh will play a lot up forward, and will enjoy the challenge rucking against Kreuzer. He took the scalp of Ryder last week and is perhaps about to run into some strong form. Kreuzer is a star, so Josh has a huge task.
DaVe’s Soapbox
The big news story of the last fortnight has been the Melbourne Storm issue. I don’t know enough about the NRL to make a strong comment, but my warning to all is to be careful what you believe.
Remember, News Ltd owns the majority of the NRL and the Melbourne Storm, so is very keen to distance itself from the issue and lay the blame squarely on Waldron. The photo of Waldron in the Sun yesterday with the words ‘Chief Rat’ was a classic example of how the media can influence. The photo actually made Waldron look like a Rat. Just be careful what you read in the Herald Sun or Australian.
Fairfax media on the other hand have told the Waldron story. Fairfax were the only media outlet Waldron would talk to, and they were more than happy to put the spotlight back onto News Ltd.
The Herald Sun asked the 12 questions they would like Waldron to answer. I agree with Kevin Bartlett who said that they should also pose 12 questions to News Ltd on SEN. So this has very much become a media war, as much as an NRL issue. Let’s hope there are journalists out there who take a step back and report on the issue in an unbiased manner.
It does put the spotlight on the AFL and its salary cap as well. With all the talk about 3rd party payments and the Gold Coast, there has never been a greater time for clubs to realise the dangers of breaching a salary cap.
Fantasy Advice
It’s trade time, so let’s have a look at a few guys from Carlton and Collingwood
Marc Murphy – I was waiting for his price to go down following a slow pre-season. It has, but not as much as I had hoped. He won’t go down much more, so could be a good upgrade option if you need another midfield.
Bryce Gibbs – Like Murphy, he has decreased in price. He has done so much more than Murphy. Now, at just over 400K, his price is juicy. Won’t go down much more unless he continues to do defensive jobs.
Dane Swan – Wait a bit more on Swanny if you don’t have him. His price is coming down a bit more, and his form is still improving. Though he should have a good game this weekend.
Jolly and Fraser – Both are at bargain basement prices and won’t drop much more. If you are trying to upgrade a guy like Seaby, keep them in mind. However, I think I would spend the money and get Dean Cox who has dropped in price a lot but is now back in form.
Leon Davis – Price is very good at the moment and might drop a bit more. However I have concerns about potential injuries and I can’t see him getting back to his best for a while.
Alan Didak – Is cheap at the moment and is in form. But will always get tags. Expect his price to fluctuate, but is a good dream team performer more weeks than not.
The Wrap Up
It’s all to play for, and expect a bumper crowd on Sunday. I will be there yet again at full voice. It has been a terrific fortnight of football for both these sides, so let’s try and get 80,000 to the G, proving that the Collingwood and Carlton rivalry is a live and well, and we are still the 2 biggest sides in the AFL.
Expect it to be heated. There will be a fight at some stage, and the AFL may earn themselves a bit of revenue through player fines, but it will be great entertainment.
Carlton are in good form, but expect Malthouse to devise a strategy to shut down the run of the Blues.
I can’t wait!
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
"Goddess" 
