AFL Round 17

[Hucky]

Early Centrebet odds are up:

ADELAIDE 2.37
ESSENDON 1.59

RICHMOND 1.08
GOLD COAST 8.05

CARLTON 5.75
COLLINGWOOD 1.14

ST KILDA 1.66
WEST COAST 2.22

MELBOURNE 1.23
PORT ADELAIDE 4.15

SYDNEY 1.30
FREMANTLE 3.50

BRISBANE 7.50
GEELONG 1.08

NORTH MELBOURNE 2.75
WESTERN BULLDOGS 1.45

After a very quick look I think Freo are a bit long, but not much else is jumping out at me.

What are people's thoughts on the Eagles vs Saints game?

 

[The_Doctor]

I was expecting West Coast to be favourite, cannot believe they are outsiders. Saints have beaten North and Port, Eagles beat Blues and Cats. I know where my money will be

 

[GFC29]

I'm liking the Eagles, will probably take them at the line.

They played well at Etihad a few weeks ago v Carlton and I still don't think the Saints can cut it with the better half of the competition (Fremantle is their only win against top 8 sides this year).

Not sure I like too much else, but I'm sure that will change during the week, it always does.

 

[denitofinito]

Westcoast looks value to me, at worst the line will be nice. Unlike the dogs, saints yet to prove they have really turned the corner. Sydney too short against a Freo side that won at the scg last year.

 

[Pweter]

Eagles definitely look good at that price.

Adelaide look to have some value. Essendon travel poorly, and tend to go even worse when heading to either Adelaide or Perth.

 

[Hucky]

Freo have opened at 3.75 at Sports, I'm on for 1.5u.

edit: Out to 3.80 now at CB...

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

I'm the last person who should be criticizing odds, but WC @2.22 seems nuts.

Were half the team taken hostage in Colombia?

 

[denitofinito]

Eagles out to 2.33 at centrebet now, I don't understand where all this saints love has come from!

But then again, many of us were wrong with dogs vs blues with the argument that the doggies have beaten no one of note either..

 

[Hucky]

There are clearly some Perth haters out there with money to throw around.

 

[NSLK]

Crows, Eagles and Dogs H2H @ 7ish

 

[Chadley]

dogs @ 1.4 seems juicy

 

[Borgsta]

wait are these the official odds? Can i back them yet or do I have to wait.

 

[DT_35]

everyone take the eagles pls

 

[denitofinito]

wait are these the official odds? Can i back them yet or do I have to wait.

Can confirm you can't take them yet. Tried to put 3u on eagles and centrebet said they are waiting for TAB to release their odds just in case I'm getting too much value.

 

[Resarenco]

I was expecting it too be an even money game. I went and checked out St Kilda and they have gone a lot better then I thought in the last 7 weeks. They have only lost to Geelong and Collingwood in that time and have beaten:

Western Bulldogs (recently round 12) 24 points
Melbourne 20 points
Fremantle (in perth) 46 points
North Melbourne 7 points
Port Adelaide 56 points

I can understand why they are favourites in Melbourne. If it was in Perth you would probably see the opposite odds West Coast at $1.60.

 

[Ron]

I was expecting West Coast to be favourite, cannot believe they are outsiders. Saints have beaten North and Port, Eagles beat Blues and Cats. I know where my money will be

When Centrebet opened their market, both teams were at $1.91. I thought that was good value for the Eagles and nearly backed them figuring they would shorten. Glad i held off now.

 

[Pweter]

There is actually some value with Port, though it would take a brave man to bet on them.

Melbourne struggle away from the MCG. This game is in Darwin where Port beat Richmond earlier in the year, and Richmond had a reasonable side on the park that night.

 

[The_Doctor]

Agree, ill be taking Port at the line

 

[yamahamoto]

Natanui might get 1 game off for an off ball incident and Kerr facing a fitness test. I think thats y saints is fav

 

[GFC29]

For anyone looking at the GC v Richmond game, this may be of interest:

“We believe Gary is a good chance to play this weekend,” football manager Marcus Ashcroft said.

“It’s fair to say that if Gary can get through the majority of Wednesday’s training session, we’d expect him to be available for selection this week.”

Ablett was optimistic on Twitter: "Scans are good! Just showed some swelling.... Nothing serious! #juststrainedaheartmuscle."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...his-injured-knee/story-e6frf9jf-1226091901005

 

[Resarenco]

When Centrebet opened their market, both teams were at $1.91. I thought that was good value for the Eagles and nearly backed them figuring they would shorten. Glad i held off now.

Interesting, why didn't you create the thread when they where $1.91 each so everyone could have put money on West Coast at $1.91 ? It is just interesting situation this week because everyone was saying it is good to create the thread as early as possible so people could jump on Collingwood at $1.42.

 

[Damarus]

Interesting, why didn't you create the thread when they where $1.91 each so everyone could have put money on West Coast at $1.91 ? It is just interesting situation this week because everyone was saying it is good to create the thread as early as possible so people could jump on Collingwood at $1.42.

Seriously?... Give it a break man. Nobody said it was good to create the thread early for the purpose of getting on Collingwood. You are the ONLY person who brought particulars to the argument on when the thread should be posted, and nobody agreed with your argument. The thread will start as soon as someone wants to make it and that's that. Let it go...

 

[KardiniaPark]

Richmond $1.08

Thanks but no thanks ...

 

[denitofinito]

Natanui might get 1 game off for an off ball incident and Kerr facing a fitness test. I think thats y saints is fav

Kerr would be a big out but Natanui out would be partially offset with Lynch coming back in.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Richmond $1.08

Thanks but no thanks ...

Seriously worth a decent lay at those odds....

And if bet365 covers the match, I reckon you'd be a good chance of locking in a very decent profit after the 1st quarter.