Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

[StringyDog]

The Essendon game was tricky too. Stanton is an obvious choice for the 3, but the other 2 votes are tough to pick out. I think Hurley stood out enough for get 2 votes, but he is no moral. Fletcher, Hocking and Ryder were all good, so was Zaharakis and Hille. I ended up going with Fletcher though.

3 and 2 and Stanton and Hurley's 1 will be out of Ryder and Hall.

 

[Slattery_20]

WB - Ess

3 Ryder
2 Stanton
1 Hurley

Maybe Watson gets 1 but he'd be lucky IMHO.
Ryder set us away dozens of times - key to the win IMHO.

 

[Frankie23]

Boyd at $11 for a place, huge value there especially if its multied with Collingwood premiership/Franklin Coleman, around 25-1!

 

[scottyjc]

Holy sh**, really do not like the new location of this thread. For anyone who cares, I'm sticking to private forum and PM's from now on.

If people are serious about brownlow punting then I stongly recommend not posting any good information in here.

Exactly, spot on.

 

[Grimmjow]

Boyd at $11 for a place, huge value there especially if its multied with Collingwood premiership/Franklin Coleman, around 25-1!

Dont believe TAB will allow a multi option with Place.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

The Essendon game was tricky too. Stanton is an obvious choice for the 3, but the other 2 votes are tough to pick out. I think Hurley stood out enough for get 2 votes, but he is no moral. Fletcher, Hocking and Ryder were all good, so was Zaharakis and Hille. I ended up going with Fletcher though.

I would be staggered if Fletcher gets a vote.
Stanton will get the 3.
Boyd could also scrape in for a vote which could be important.

 

[max grande]

Just having a look at some of the odds that Centrebet have up for team leaders. There looks to be some real serious value out there at the moment. Fyfe is $2.10 to top Fremantle, Wells $3.60 at Kangaroos, Dal Santo $1.40 at Saints, Boak at $3.50 for Port and Cox at $1.85 at Eagles.

I thought last year had plenty of value, but this year might be just as good. Goodes should win Sydneys and its hard to see him not winning it, but a few good games to close the season for O'Keefe and he could represent a big danger for the Swans too.

 

[Rippo]

Curious to know wether anyone thinks Swan could outpoll Pendlebury?

 

[max grande]

Curious to know wether anyone thinks Swan could outpoll Pendlebury?

It is certainly possible after the last month or so. I'd have Pendlebury up currently, but if Swan continues to come home strong in the next 3 games he will out poll Pendlebury. I have him 5 votes ahead of Swan at the moment.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Just having a look at some of the odds that Centrebet have up for team leaders. There looks to be some real serious value out there at the moment. Fyfe is $2.10 to top Fremantle, Wells $3.60 at Kangaroos, Dal Santo $1.40 at Saints, Boak at $3.50 for Port and Cox at $1.85 at Eagles.

I thought last year had plenty of value, but this year might be just as good. Goodes should win Sydneys and its hard to see him not winning it, but a few good games to close the season for O'Keefe and he could represent a big danger for the Swans too.

He should be $1.10.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Massive fail, BBF fixing it.

 

[X_box_X]

Pffft, Priddis a huge chance to outpoll Cox. Huge chance.

In fact, I'd fancy Priddis to outpoll Cox. Even if Priddis aint ahead now, he will be in three weeks time. Eagles with an easy run home, and the last two weeks has shown Cox is playing with an injury. Priddis full steam ahead.

 

[Chasing_Cars]

Curious to know wether anyone thinks Swan could outpoll Pendlebury?

Yes it's definetely possible. I have Swan 2 votes behind.

 

[Didak_attack]

Must admit I haven't followed north games overly indepth this year, but is Goldstein any chance to take out the team votes at $13? Seems to be having a ripper season in a team that may not get heaps of votes?

Do people have him near swallow in their counts?

 

[char]

Must admit I haven't followed north games overly indepth this year, but is Goldstein any chance to take out the team votes at $13? Seems to be having a ripper season in a team that may not get heaps of votes?

Do people have him near swallow in their counts?

I have it between A Swallow / Wells / Goldstein at the moment, with either one probably being a BOG away from taking it out. He represents good value given how close he is to being ahead IMO.

 

[max grande]

Must admit I haven't followed north games overly indepth this year, but is Goldstein any chance to take out the team votes at $13? Seems to be having a ripper season in a team that may not get heaps of votes?

Do people have him near swallow in their counts?

I have Swallow and Wells a game or two ahead of Petrie and Goldstein, with Ziebell not too far behind either. Could be a pretty close count this one, but still i think its a toss between Swallow/Wells. Next few games will be interesting.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Betfair has a market for most Brownlow votes (i.e. market with Mitchell).

I maxed out Mitchell at 4s. Are any of the books offering this market?

 

[max grande]

The trouble with Betfair at the moment is that there is no liquidity in the markets. For example you can only get about $233 matched on Marc Murphy at the moment for $11.00. It will even up as we draw nearer the Brownlow, in fact there is plenty more in the market now than there was a week ago, but still its not great at the moment.

 

[banana_bus]

Betfair has a market for most Brownlow votes (i.e. market with Mitchell).

I maxed out Mitchell at 4s. Are any of the books offering this market?

? I see 1.11

 

[Thedeftouch]

? I see 1.11

....YES because "I maxed out Mitchell at 4s."

Also, you aren't even looking at the right market; try Brownlow Medal 2011 / Brownlow Specials / Most Votes

 

[Thedeftouch]

The trouble with Betfair at the moment is that there is no liquidity in the markets. For example you can only get about $233 matched on Marc Murphy at the moment for $11.00. It will even up as we draw nearer the Brownlow, in fact there is plenty more in the market now than there was a week ago, but still its not great at the moment.

$2300 exposure books aren't too bad at all, and you can get another 1k @ 10s... but hey feel free to offer your own books on Betfair if the offers aren't big enough for you

Interestingly though, there is someone running a massive book on some of the runners - exposure of 90k on Priddis at 75s, 75k on Pavlich at 250s and 65k on Wells at 130s. Clearly someone thinks these players are drawing dead.

 

[Effes]

$2300 exposure books aren't too bad at all, and you can get another 1k @ 10s... but hey feel free to offer your own books on Betfair if the offers aren't big enough for you

Interestingly though, there is someone running a massive book on some of the runners - exposure of 90k on Priddis at 75s, 75k on Pavlich at 250s and 65k on Wells at 130s. Clearly someone thinks these players are drawing dead.

I'm clueless when it comes to Betfair...can you elaborate on this?

 

[Thedeftouch]

I'm clueless when it comes to Betfair...can you elaborate on this?

Sure.

Betfair operates similar to a stock exchange or any other type of market. A trade (ie. a bet) will occur when there is offer and acceptance.

When you log on you will see odds and $ amounts. What you are seeing is the highest offer from someone on Betfair, and the corresponding maximum amount that the person will let you have at those odds.

"Exposure" is the amount that a person is willing to lose if their offer is accepted. For example, I might offer (i.e. "lay") $500 on Pendles to win Brownlow at odds of 12. My exposure on that bet = 500 x (12-1) = $5500.

I use the term exposure because typically a person who is making offers will do so on every possible outcome, and they will generally keep their exposure consistent on every option. E.g. I might offer an $x exposure book on market A, etc.

 

[runriot]

Hawks v Port
3. Lance Franklin – 8 goals straight for probably the only time in his career. Had just as many disposals as Rioli and consistant throughout.
2. Cyril Rioli – Would have given 3, but most goals were in 1st quarter and faded.
1. Sam Mitchell/Jordan Lewis

Dogs v Bombers

3. Stanton
2. Hurley
1. Zaharakis/Boyd

Dont know why ppl hav Fletcher for the 1, Barry Hall kicked 6 goals
Zaharakis for me stood out a lot in the game and Boyd 36 disposals cant go unnoticed.

Fremantle v Carlton

4 standouts - Judd/Murphy/Betts and Gibbs. Allocating votes for them was hard.

I would say 3 votes Betts, 2 Judd, 1 Murphy but i think Judd could easily get 3 and Murhpy 2. Judd and Murphy set up the win early on. Betts capitalised on midfield supply. Would be interested on other opinions here?

Sydney v Richmond
3. Houli
2. Cotchin
1 Delidio/Nahas

Still very tight for Richmond's count...Cotchin with some handy votes

Other games still to come later on tonight.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Dogs v Bombers

3. Stanton
2. Hurley
1. Zaharakis/Boyd

Dont know why ppl hav Fletcher for the 1, Barry Hall kicked 6 goals
Zaharakis for me stood out a lot in the game and Boyd 36 disposals cant go unnoticed.

Hall kicked most of his goals on Pears, before Fletcher came in with some very handy spoils. I think he ended up with 9. Can't see him not polling tbh.