Preview Rd 2 Faceoff: Adelaide V Western Bulldogs

[AFC979810]

Apologies all for no Game of Thrones theme or any pretty pictures (not that clever unfortunately) - To the faceoff:

When: 7.10pm, Saturday April 7, 2011, AAMI Stadium
Last 5 at AAMI: 2006 - Adelaide 132-55, 2007 - Adelaide 107-73, 2008 - Adelaide 76-67, 2009 - Doggies 118-86, 2010 - Doggies 61-53.

Last time we met: Western Bulldogs 14.16.100 def Adelaide Crows 10.10.70, round 13, 2011 at Etihad Stadium.

Bulldogs - Possible Line-up:
B Murphy, Lake, Addison
HB Hargrave, Markovic, Wood
C Cross, Smith, Griffen
HF Giansiracusa, Jones, Cooney
F Dickson, Roughead, Higgins
Foll Minson, Boyd, Picken
Interchange: Wallis, Liberatore, Dahlhaus,
Sub: Sherman

Adelaide Possible Lineup:
B: Talia, Rutten, Doughty
HB: Reilly, Otten, Stiffy
C: Douglas, Danger, Mackay
HF: Sloane, Lynch, Vince
FF: Walker, Tippett, Porps
Foll: Jacobs, Thompson,VB
Interchange: Petrenko, Smith, Callinan
Sub: Shaw
Emergencies: Wright, Jaensch, Kerridge

*After the Stevens concussion issues, I think the club will be very careful with Hendo and give him a week or two off... I think due to the small/midsized forwards of the doggies - Shaw will be brought in to help provide another defensive option.

Key Matchups:

Tippett/Lynch/Walker v Markovic/Lake/Murphy:
This proves to be Adelaide's big advantage in this Saturday's matchup. Watching Markovic have 7 kicked on him by Kennedy means that Adelaide will try to isolate him 1on1 vs Tippett or Walker. Murphy will probably go to Lynch and Lake to Walker with both of these forward being told to leave take their opponent away from Tippet & Markovic matchup. With Markovic's confidence down and Tippo being in the form he is - we could have a Dawson V Rocca style matchup.

Advantage: Adelaide

Jacobs v Minson, Thompson v Boyd, Vince V Cross, Van Berlo v Cooney, Sloane v Griffen, Danger V Libba, Smith V Wallis, Mackay V Picken...

This is where the game will be won and lost... Both teams have very similar midfields with one elite mid (thommo v boyd), a couple of very good mids in (Cross, Griffen, Cooney / VB,Vince, Sloane) - slight advantage WB) and some very promising young and emerging talent (Danger&Smith v Wallis/Libba) slight advantage Adelaide... The ruck battle is fairly evenly poised with Minson being underrated in my opinion and I think the midfields will come out relatively even, meaning the advantage will go to the side who uses it better..

Advantage: Nobody

Gia / Dahlhaus / Higgins / Smith V Johncock / Doughty / Otten

I think tall forwards are a big weakness for the Doggies and Roughead & Jones will be covered by Rutten and Talia - meaning we need to shut down the doggies small forwards to win. In the game against West Coast - the Doggies smalls kicked 9 of their 12 goals.

Advantage: Doggies

Bulldogs Players to Watch:
Cooney - Typically does very well against us... Hasn't looked 100% since knee injuries have derailed him... Is this the game he comes back to his elite best?
Dahlhaus- Small forwards typically hurt us and Dahlhaus is in very good form. The little cult figure could do some damage providing Jacobs doesnt mistake him for a blade of grass and step on him.
Smith- Who the hell is this kid? Absolutely blitzed it in the first quarter kicking 4 goals before suffering from 'entire body cramps' and having to be subbed at half time. Has the x factor and could kick a bag very quickly.

Adelaide Players to Watch:
Porps: Many of the posters on this board were very unhappy with Porps Rd 1 performance. He is immensely talented and after spending 18 months between actual AFL games can be expected to a bit behind the pace... The question is when will it all click - lets hope rd 2.
Callinan: This guy has made me eat some serious humble pie over the past 6 weeks... Has not put a foot wrong over preseason, kicked 2.4 (with 2 posters) against GC and is returning to his beloved AAMI stadium where he can kick a goal from anywhere.
Walker: Am amazed that he gets nowhere near the press that guys like Hurley get! If there was a 21year old forward who played 46 games for a victorian club and kicked 95 goals with the ability to kick one from 65 metres out - he would be the messiah (not a very naughty boy, like he is to some on this board).... If he puts a full game together he could kick 10.

Overall:

With the Crows being in very good form over the past 3 weeks and playing this one at home in front of over 45,000 people on a Saturday night we are deservedly the early favourites. This battle will be decided by who gets first use of the pill out of the middle.. If the two midfields negate themselves it will come down to whether the Crows talls or Bulldogs smalls can be more efficient and kick a winning score.

Prediction: Crows 16.11 - 107 over the Doggies 12.13 - 85.

Goals: Walker 4, Tippet 3, Callinan 3, Porps 2, Vince 1, Thompson 1, Danger 1, Mackay 1
Goals: Gia 4, Dahlhaus 3, Higgins 2, Jones 1, Roughhead 1, Murphy 1

Best: Sloane, Thompson, Vince, Reilly, Walker, Johncock
Best: Cooney, Griffen, Gia, Dahlhaus, Cross, Wallis.

 

[Carmo]

All I can say is dogs would want to get off to a good start.....another first quarter like last week and we'll be in their heads for the rest of the game.....

 

[Macjoe]

Good read, AFC...

Your analysis seems sound - although I think Reilly in his current form will help stem the tide of small doggy forwards. Should they be called puppys? Perhaps the match committee will think a faster defender might replace Doughty as well as Hendo.

We'll be there - Crows by 24.

 

[Vader]

The Footscray Board also has a FaceOff thread up & running, if anyone wants to wander over there and discuss this topic with them:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=926869

 

[Allefgib]

Good stuff AFC (you really need to change your username dude... AFC979813 ?)

Game will be very very telling IMO. I haven't seen the doggies much this year, but the midfield battle for effectiveness will be a good insight into where our boys are truly at.

Walker vs Lake... Tex would want to be switched on. If he stays at home too much Lake may just get too much of the ball in his area to stay disinterested and might switch on. A switched on Lake is a gun of the competition in terms of reading the play and taking marks. Also, the comparison to Hurley wrt to goals kicked per games played is a little off base given how much time Hurley has spent in defense. And when he is in defense he has shown his ability to really read the play and win contests. Both things Walker hasn't exactly set the world on fire with. Don't get me wrong I love Tex, and think he could be the better player when it all clicks, but I can appreciate why Hurley gets the attention he does. Tex also makes it look far too easy

Boyd vs Thommo is going to be awesome to watch. Lots of head to head style matchups so far in games this year, I hope these 2 go at it head to head also.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Nice write up 979810

I think it is going to be a contest between our Key Forwards and their small forwards... As both midfields are pretty even...But. we do have the advantage with Jacobs and Tippett in the ruck....

Crows by 25 points

 

[ruscy002]

Crows by 43. While we're not as good as West Coast yet, we do have an edge in the same areas that they did against the Dogs, and we've got them on our home turf.

Kick straight and we'll do it comfortably.

 

[TARANTULA]

If their midfield fire we could get crushed at the stoppages.

 

[ruscy002]

If their midfield fire we could get crushed at the stoppages.

Our midfield is as good as theirs on what we've seen so far in 2012, so this would only ring true if ours didn't rock up. And we have far better rucks.

 

[Ravenous Crow]

If their midfield fire we could get crushed at the stoppages.

So long as Jacobs stays healthy we should at least be competetive. I'd love to see a Thompson v Boyd match up where they each amass 40 possessions... not really worried about a barrage of mongrel punts coming our way.

 

[Smoooothy]

good writeup

don't really rate the dogs that highly, if tippo, tex and thommo can dominate for us like they did last week, i think the margin could blow out. expect porpise to return to form this week, tends to play well against the doggies

crows by 37

 

[Stephen2]

Loving the positivity of posters, am I the only one that's nervous?

This is a real challenge for the AFC to prove the pre-season & R1 "Sando Turnaround" form is real.

Dogs have a very good small brigade, in the middle and half forward.

*NERVOUS*

 

[ruscy002]

Loving the positivity of posters, am I the only one that's nervous?

This is a real challenge for the AFC to prove the pre-season & R1 "Sando Turnaround" form is real.

Dogs have a very good small brigade, in the middle and half forward.

*NERVOUS*

I was more nervous about a bad round 1 showing after blitzing the NAB Cup - we came out and not just won convincingly, we smashed them. We're in the right headspace, so should win convincingly again.

 

[Allefgib]

We're nervous because we all want things to be different. Badly.

 

[1990crow]

Should win comfortably going by what we have seen so far. Sanderson gets this team ready to play. Get a good start the crowd will get behind us and it will be very difficult for the Dogs. Johncock, Doughty and Rutten should negate the small forwards of the Dogs.

Hoping for Walker to kick 4 or 5 and for Dangerfield to have a 27+ possession game to get his confidence up.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

All I hope is that our kicking for goal is better than last week. I know we thrashed GC but the scoreline still didnt really paint a picture. It should have been a 100+ point win.

I dont even mind the misses that much given the amount of times we've been getting the ball into our forward 50. That said, when we take on the top teams and the contest is fairly even, missing easy set shots will kill us.

 

[BACCS]

Dahlhaus killed us last year, so he is one we will monitor more closely this time around. The Crows should win comfortably by around 5-6 goals with the plethora of goal kicking options we have, and the little they have (which means our defense should cope better). Driving back down from Middleton with Dad especially for the game, can't wait.

 

[Mr Zero]

We need to match Kurt and Lake up, having Tippets size will minimize Lakes main strength as a marking defender.

 

[woopedazz]

Thread needs more Dog.

 

[Gets!]

Dahlhaus killed us last year, so he is one we will monitor more closely this time around. The Crows should win comfortably by around 5-6 goals with the plethora of goal kicking options we have, and the little they have (which means our defense should cope better). Driving back down from Middleton with Dad especially for the game, can't wait.

That's how you know you are doing really, really bad!

 

[hippyhippy]

no mention of milestone game for scottie? u know how milestone games usually work out for adelaide?? hehhehehe

 

[PykeDream]

That's how you know you are doing really, really bad!

He was pretty electric against West Coast too. Not sure our small defenders will be effective at negating a player like him, could hurt us if he gets a couple of opportunities.

 

[staphy]

That's how you know you are doing really, really bad!

You have no idea, clearly you have your head stuck in the sand.

 

[DragzLS1]

That's how you know you are doing really, really bad!

Lol I suppose nearly all the teams this year must be doing really really bad then hey

 

[TARANTULA]

Something about the group of Boyd, Cooney, Griffen, Cross, Higgins and Gia that makes me a bit un-easy.....