My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

[Chris25]

*My mock draft has moved to a new home here.

So I was looking at some of the draft prospects for this season, and figured I'd put them together into some sort of a list. I decided not to bother with making it into a phantom, because that would mean having to predict a final ladder. And I've never been good at tipping.

History suggests that half of the players I've listed will probably slip through to the rookie draft, or go undrafted all together. That's just what happens this early on - some players drop off, while others work their way up as the season goes on.

Top 50

1. Lachlan Whitfield - 184cm midfielder, Dandenong
2. Jimmy Toumpas - 182cm midfielder, Woodville West Torrens
3. Jake Stringer - 191cm midfielder, Bendigo
4. Mason Shaw - 197cm forward, South Fremantle
5. Josh Simpson - 181cm midfielder, East Fremantle

More of the same at the top of the order. The only one of note here is Josh Simpson, who might not be this highly rated by others. But he has everything I look for in a player - natural feel for the game, skills, attack and versatility. Considering what he produced last year, I can't wait to see more.

6. Brodie Grundy - 201cm ruckman, Sturt
7. Liam McBean - 202cm ruckman, Calder Cannons
8. Jack Viney - 177cm midfielder, Oakleigh
9. Matthew Haynes - 189cm midfielder, Northern Knights
10. Laine Wilkins - 190cm midfielder, Peel

I didn't really want to split Grundy and McBean, because I can't pick which player will be chosen first. Who would you rather, Darren Jolly or Brad Ottens? Could go either way, and there is a case for each player. As for the others, Haynes might be the more well known prospect being from Victoria and all, but I like Wilkins as a similar player.

11. Joe Daniher - 200cm forward, Calder Cannons
12. Lachlan Plowman - 192cm defender, Calder Cannons
13. Tanner Smith - 194cm defender, North Ballarat
14. Shannon Taylor - 177cm forward, Claremont
15. Sam Mayes - 185cm forward, North Adelaide

The first of the KPDs come off the board now, and I have Plowman just pipping Smith to be taken first. Both are a good size and strong defensively, but Plowman has a better attacking side to his game. Mayes might appear a bit lower than usual, but while I do rate him highly I'm still waiting to see more of him in a midfield role.

16. Jonathan O'Rourke - 183cm midfielder, Calder Cannons
17. Nathan Wright - 183cm midfielder, Dandenong
18. Clay Cameron - 190cm defender, Mt Gravatt
19. Daniel Williamson - 179cm midfielder, Norwood
20. Nick Vlastuin - 187cm midfielder, Northern Knights

Cameron looks to be one of the better players to come out of Queensland for a while, although that just means he'll be a zone selection. But anyway, I prefer him as a defender to a forward which is why I listed him as one, as opposed to others. Williamson meanwhile is one of my personal favourites out of SA, maybe not a game changer, but not unlike a Toby Greene or Clay Smith either. This also might seem low for Vlastuin, I have him somewhere in the 10-20 range. I see him a bit like a Dom Tyson or Reece Conca, a good solid player but others might have the higher ceiling.

21. Troy Menzel - 185cm forward, Central Districts
22. Sean Lynch - 185cm defender, South Fremantle
23. Dayle Garlett - 181cm forward, Swan Districts
24. Ben Kennedy - 174cm midfielder, Glenelg
25. Emmanuel Irra - 180cm midfielder, South Adelaide

Just SA and WA guys featuring here. They are all attacking and skilled players. All of them would be very good picks around the 20-25 range. Kennedy could be this years Prestia/Smith, someone who is consistently underrated because of his size but goes higher on ability. I also tend to think Irra will go quite high, just for his intangibles alone.

26. Chase Bower - 189cm defender, Norwood
27. Aidan Corr - 194cm defender, Northern Knights
28. Jed Anderson - 178cm midfielder, Darwin/GWS
29. Kamdyn McIntosh - 193cm defender, Peel
30. Brodie Murdoch - 188cm forward, Glenelg

Anderson is all but gone to GWS, but the others are all potentially quality KPPs. Corr is a big guy who can play at either end, and McIntosh is a nice player in the McInnes mould. I was a big fan of Jordan Murdoch last year, and it's no different this year with Brodie. He is more of a classic forward as opposed to a flanker, but there is lots to like there.

31. Spencer White - 194cm forward, Western Jets
32. Todd McKay - 175cm midfielder, South Adelaide
33. Rory Atkins - 185cm midfielder, Calder Cannons
34. Adam Carter - 179cm defender, South Fremantle
35. Jason Pongracic - 182cm midfielder, Dandenong

I expect more key forwards to stake their claims as the season goes on, but for now I think White is as good a prospect as any. Showed promise last season, and is a big strong marking player. The other four are quite similar style players, Carter in particular is only this low because his midfield game hasn't been showcased quite as much so far. But I'd expect him to step up for WA this year, and climb the rankings.

36. James Stewart - 197cm forward, Sandringham
37. Eddy O'Connor - 183cm midfielder, Norwood
38. Chris Yarran - 183cm forward, Perth
39. Craig Moller - 204cm ruckman, GWS
40. Josh Archer - 190cm defender, Sturt

Stewart and Moller are pencilled in with clubs already, the question is only where they'll be picked. I've spoken about O'Connor and Archer in the SA draft prospects thread, and I really like them. Both are promising athletic types, and I'm looking forward to watching them develop. Yarran meanwhile is a hard one to place, just because unlike others his game is nearly entirely played in the forward fifty. He is dangerous up there, just hasn't shown all of what he could possibly do.

41. Brant Colledge - 192cm forward, Perth
42. Oliver Wines - 185cm midfielder, Bendigo
43. Nathan Hrovat - 174cm midfielder, Northern Knights
44. Jesse Lonergan - 182cm midfielder, Launceston
45. Brandon Jack - 180cm midfielder, Pennant Hills

A couple of Division 2 players here, and the first from Tasmania. Lonergan was a stand out for Tasmania last year, and I expect most of the attention to on him again this year. Brandon Jack will be an interesting one to watch on draft day, the success of Kieran Jack will likely see him go earlier than he otherwise might have.

46. Braedon McLean - 182cm midfielder, NT Thunder
47. Tim Membrey - 188cm forward, Gippsland
48. Jackson Thurlow - 189cm forward, Launceston
49. Michael McMahon - 186cm forward, North Adelaide
50. Mason Middleton - 191cm forward, West Adelaide

And the list finishes off with some strong forwards. Membrey and Middleton are both big bodied players, with Middleton particularly being a real presence at full forward. McMahon has simply forced his way onto this list through his early performances. And as people probably know by now, I love my NT players just as much as those from SA. But having said that, McLean didn't get on this list by being from NT alone - he has a lot of talent.

 

[Knightmare]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Good top 50. Really solid list.

Potential over production?

Very low for Vlastuin. I don't buy into the logic that you need to be an athlete to have a high ceiling.

Adam Carter is another I rate allot higher.

Very high for Shannon Taylor.

A few I'm surprised to not see: Chalmers, Luccon, M,Wallis, Jaksch, Amato and McDonough anywhere in the order at all.


One call I really like is Laine Wilkins up high.

But again. Excellent job for this early in the year. Your draft and list of names is looking as solid as ever.

 

[Chris25]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

There has to be some level of potential over production at this stage, otherwise the list would just be a list of who played in the U18s as an underage player. And that alone, is hardly a recipe for success.

As for Vlastuin, I have him in the 10-20 range so he is at the bottom of his range, so to speak. Could just as easily have put him at #10. But it's not simply a case of him lacking line breaking speed, so he automatically doesn't have a high ceiling. There are just some other players that I like more and think could be the better players in the long run. He could go the way of Tyson/Conca and be a top 5 pick, or be more of an Adams/Sheridan/Kerridge.

In regards to the others who were missing, I would consider Chalmers, Amato and McDonough as being much closer to the rookie draft than the top 50. Luccon I just have a feeling could disappoint this year, and Wallis has yet to really do anything.

 

[TradeDraft]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

36. James Stewart - 197cm forward, Sandringham

This is a tad lower than I have heard and I was wondering to hear in More Details on your Thoughts on Him and What Round would Pies Take Him?

Well Pies have not 100% Commited to Stewart yet

 

[tigs2010]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Disappointed in you Chris. It is un-bigfooty like to be a Freo supporter and not rate Moller top 10

Great effort though and a fantastic read mate.

 

[yaco55]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

This is a tad lower than I have heard and I was wondering to hear in More Details on your Thoughts on Him and What Round would Pies Take Him?

Well Pies have not 100% Commited to Stewart yet

TD

Think the ranking of the F/S is based on what other clubs will bid for the players, and then placing them where Chris thinks the relevant clubs will finish.

Chris has Daniher at 11 - but that is based on where he thinks Essendon will finish in 2012 - When he is commonly rated a top 5 selection.

 

[Old Skool]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Chris, allow me a pure North indulgence?

Where would you place Luke McDonald in that list if he could be drafted this year?

 

[Hank93]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Great work Chris!

Just for interest sake where would have you placed Jaeger and Crouch on this list?

 

[Chris25]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

I thought most of the talk would be about where the F/S and Scholarship players are listed.

I'll start with Moller. I really like him, and long term I think he'll be better than Jarrod Witts. But he is exactly that - a long term prospect. Assuming he did come to Fremantle next season, there is no guarantee of him playing WAFL seniors in his first year at all. So while I like him, I've been tempering my expectations a bit.

Collingwood could easily be forced to take James Stewart with their first round pick, but at the moment I'd have him in the second - which Collingwood fans should be happy about. He has had his injury problems and his endurance could probably use a bit of work. I see him more as that leading CHF, rather than a stay at home FF, so his tank is going to need to be elite. This far out from the draft, and talls are never rated quite as highly as midfielders anyway.

As for North and Luke McDonald, I don't pay all that much attention to the underage players. Still need to get my head around all the players for this years draft. But I'd probably slot him in around the 12-20 range, with room to grow.

And finally, O'Meara would be #2 and pushing for the #1 spot. Brad Crouch would be somewhere in the 5-10 range, depending on where I put the ruckmen.

 

[Prem87]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Any two of Taylor, Gartlett and Yarran would make me very very happy. Great list.

 

[liz]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Swans have first dibs over Jack, if they want him, though as an Academy (rather than scholarship) player he will be subject to the same bidding rules as FS picks. There is a fair amount of upside factored into assessing him as a top 50 player - and a lot of that based on his surname as much as anything. He's played a few games with the Swans reserves now and he does show some promise but is still very raw. There are three or four Swans Academy players draftable this year who look to have AFL list potential and Jack is probably the least developed of all of them (physically as well as experience wise).

 

[Chris25]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Yeah, no doubt a lot of Jack right now is potential. Having a name helps too, I still think that's part of the reason Brad Hill was highly regarded last year - before his combine in particular.

He has had some really good performances already, and his relative inexperience only adds to the intrigue. I have no doubts Sydney will take him, and although I feel he deserves to be talked about, admittedly I more included him just to have another NSW player in there.

 

[Sunny_]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

I would ask about O'Rourke, but I think the Cats are all over him with a F/S? Or is that starting to waver a little?

Interesting you put Cameron is a a KPD? The only thing I've heard of him is that he's a forward who can 'catch anything against men.' Barring in mind I have never seen him play myself.

 

[Chris25]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

The Cats F/S option is Jordan Bourke, not Jonathan O'Rourke. Bourke would probably be one of a handful of players, who could have slot in at the end.

As for Clay Cameron, he can play at either end. Is really quite athletic, and has a strong set of hands. But recently he has been playing in the back line for the AIS, and I like him down there. Might end up a bit like Lachie Henderson, Carlton always wanted him to be a forward but it was obvious he was more comfortable as a defender.

 

[Sunny_]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Aah, that makes far more sense. Damn those 'OU' names.

Thanks for the heads up. Hoping GC pick him up. To go first round in this strong draft seems to suggest very good skills. From QLD to boot.

 

[eth-dog]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

TD

Think the ranking of the F/S is based on what other clubs will bid for the players, and then placing them where Chris thinks the relevant clubs will finish.

Chris has Daniher at 11 - but that is based on where he thinks Essendon will finish in 2012 - When he is commonly rated a top 5 selection.

This isn't a phantom. This is where he rates their talents.

Chris, I know Essendon will be taking Daniher with their 1st pick (which I personally have around 11-13), but who do you think we'd be able to take with our 2nd? Which'll probably be 27-31, knowing how people rate us. I'm looking at probably another inside midfielder or skilled half back

 

[MAAAATTDAAAAMON]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

To add to that, you have Daniher at 11 - therefore, that suggests in your opinion that the Bombers won't really be getting a bargain (as they will likely have a pick around that mark), as many have suggested. Would that be about right?

 

[Chris25]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

For your second rounder, there would be a few options. If they lasted, my picks would be either Oliver Wines as that inside midfielder or Emmanual Irra as the skilled half back.

Chances are Wines might not last, so you could be looking at a Williamson/Carter/McKay or whatever other Victorian midfielder steps up during the year. Irra could go either way in terms of being available, but I think he would be perfect for a team like Essendon.

 

[Chris25]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

To add to that, you have Daniher at 11 - therefore, that suggests in your opinion that the Bombers won't really be getting a bargain (as they will likely have a pick around that mark), as many have suggested. Would that be about right?

I wouldn't get too worried about Daniher being at #11. It's still pretty high. And it'll probably be the lowest I have him this year.

As for perhaps not getting a bargain, that's not necessarily the case. If a team picking higher than Essendon nominated their first rounder (which is almost guaranteed) then it becomes a bargain.

 

[Igloo]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

I notice you don't have Hunter in there. If we do end up nominating him for F/S, do you think we might get away with no one nominating him, and being able to use our last pick?

 

[Turbocat]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

No Falcons in the top 50 , Mick Turner will not be pleased.

However Bourke out would suit me fine

 

[Chris25]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

I notice you don't have Hunter in there. If we do end up nominating him for F/S, do you think we might get away with no one nominating him, and being able to use our last pick?

Hunter is another I considered towards the end. I know he is rated very highly at the Jets, although I don't think their team is quite as strong as previous years at the moment. No doubt some others will step up in the midfield this year though.

If Hunter does end up being the #1 guy in the middle at the Jets, then I don't think other teams will overlook him. I would think someone will probably nominate him with their third rounder at the least.

No Falcons in the top 50 , Mick Turner will not be pleased.

That's part of what I meant in the OP, when I said by the draft this thing would have changed completely. There is always a Geelong player in the first round, no doubt one will step up soon.

 

[philthy05]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

cant wait to see the team that lines up for sa in the champs.

is troy menzel a hff come midfielder or an out and out midfielder? also josh simpson is he a forward or can he play primarily in the middle?

port adelaide have a very steady back line, lots of tall forwards, and lots of decent mids, what im hoping for is some more classy hard running mids that can find alot of the ball.

early days i know chris but with something like picks 6-11 and 23-28 who are the mids i should be watching??

gee if we can land some combo of vlastuin/ atkins it gives us so much more to work with in our midfield group.

 

[chinggis77]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

Chris, where do you rate someone like Marco Paparone from East Fremantle?

193/4 cm forward. Has been kicking quite a few goals for Easts whilst also playing further up the ground (CHF). Played state 16´s for WA.

 

[TradeDraft]

Re: My Top 50 - 2012 Draft

t.
Collingwood could easily be forced to take James Stewart with their first round pick, but at the moment I'd have him in the second - which Collingwood fans should be happy about. He has had his injury problems and his endurance could probably use a bit of work. I see him more as that leading CHF, rather than a stay at home FF, so his tank is going to need to be elite. This far out from the draft, and talls are never rated quite as highly as midfielders anyway.
.

I be very happy for Collingwood to use our 2nd Rounder on James as he does have stuff to work on but does show big promise with his Poise and Skill. I agree that his Endurance need Big Improvement.

Be Intresting to see how he goes at the U-18 Champs with Vic Metro.

Plus we keep our 1st Rounder if we use the 2nd Rounder on James