AFL round 3

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CamTinley

Club Legend
Jul 7, 2010
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South Perth
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Fremantle
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true, but i think the outs also give an insight into the mindset of the coaching panel

Exactly :thumbsu:

I'm guessing that I'm a fair bit older than most on this site. I've seen this happen plenty of times before and always with the same result.

It's hard to switch a team on at half time if they have been coasting and looking at physical self-preservation or next week.

In 1995, Carlton were unbackable favorites against St Kilda and got stream rolled. Rod Keogh was very physical, ironing out Mil Hanna and Carlton just stopped. They won just about every game after that one though.

I expect this to be physical despite the fact that the Eagles are much bigger. All of the Eagles want to play against Hawthorn next week.

I'm surprised the line hasn't come in a lot more.
 

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Sep 24, 2010
7,310
8,057
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West Coast
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Phili Eagles + Sixers
Bets so far are:

Richmond -24.5 @1.92 (1U)
Sydney -13.5 @1.91 (1U)

Collingwood +31.5
Richmond -20.5
Sydney +20.5
Fremantle -20.5
Essendon -30.5
Saints +39.5

@4.02 (1U)

Slightly harder round for value than the past two imo. I do like Richmond and have posted some of my thoughts on the game earlier on in the thread. Basically Melbourne are horrible in the midfield (actually everywhere) and don't have Moloney back either. They couldn't show something round 1 for Stynes and then after a week of copping it in the media they come out and play like they did against WC. Until they show something i can't back them at any line.

Big game for the Tigers as well and they will know it. Long way back from 0-3.

Although Port have improved i'm still not sold on how good they are. Many on here rate them higher than i do. Their strength against the Saints in their round 1 win was the contested ball. Obviously the Swans are very good in that department. I see this being a good game but Sydney winning by 20-30 points.
 

Luis_Suarez

Draftee
May 9, 2011
18
0
Melbourne
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West Coast
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Liverpool F.C
Yeah but they still have a pretty strong team. I don't think Rosa and Priddis will make much difference, they will still dominate the mids and bang it down to that towering forward line. Add to that glass who they won't miss because the ball just won't get down there and Embley who barely played last week anyway.

I 100% agree with you KP. Think the outs, even though they are a few of our best inside midfielders, shouldn't influence our scoring capabilities. As written before, I absolutely expect the game to be played in our forward half with the forward press locking it in and our big forwards doing the job.

This being said, I think one factor which may affect the overall margin is the size of the ground (Blacktown international sports arena). Was just wondering if anyone knew the dimensions of the oval (I've had a look and I wasn't able to come up with anything) as GWS may find it easier to bomb long on the smaller ground giving their forwards half a chance this week to sneak a few.

Personally I still think the Eagles to cover the line is a good shout and it only looks to be coming down further so it may be best to wait. Weather for Sydney looks perfect as well (25 and sunny atm).
 

Luis_Suarez

Draftee
May 9, 2011
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Melbourne
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West Coast
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Liverpool F.C
Just another thought for this week looking at the team sheets. The dropping of Ben Hudson from Brisbane may have a greater influence than we think. The inclusion of Billy Longer who is a fantastic prospect but playing his first AFL game in support of Leunberger up against the likes of big Sandi will be a huge task. I feel this may further influence Fremantles' dominance on the stoppages which could see their winning margin increase. What do you guys think?
 
Aug 15, 2011
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GWS cant kick a score they will get pumped, unless the eagles start kicking it backwards. All those young kids are playing for a contract and a game, they will give it everything.

Eagles by 134 like Bill said, was gonna go 142
 

KP78

Club Legend
Aug 30, 2007
1,093
255
Frankfurt
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Geelong
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Storm Victory GWSP
I am pretty excited about the team WC named, I think there could be some real value with GWS coming in (hopefully a little more) based on that. Just cannot see them getting near any team the Eagles decide to take. Agree that the Eagles will not be going at 100%, but it is only a 100 point win (never thought I would say that) against GWS that we are looking for. (4 goal and change win each quarter, I think very likely still)
 

KP78

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Aug 30, 2007
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Frankfurt
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Geelong
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Storm Victory GWSP
Collingwood Carlton either side <15.5 pts is paying 3 bucks on Sportingbet if anyone else can see value in that and wants to get on board. I can really see that happening and decided to get on for 1.1U.

Hawthorn H2H and ATS also look great to me along with Essendon while I have plussed Collingwood and the Dogs in on a few multis and would love the Dockers to win by between 27 and 66. Geelong by between 15 and 60 will see me a very happy man!

Had to get rid of a few bonus bets so I am multied up this week plenty and with the 9 leg PYOL and AFL impossible multi going, there will be plenty to watch.

Ablett on Luxbet for highest scoring of a group of around 15 midfielders at 5.25 also struck me as value.

Happy punting folks!
 

Luis_Suarez

Draftee
May 9, 2011
18
0
Melbourne
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Liverpool F.C
Found one bet which looks like an extremely good shout that everyone should jump on I feel for this weekend at evens.

J Redden to get more disposals than G Broughton at Centrebet at 2-1.

Is it just me or is that extremely good value for one of Brisbanes major ball winners against a Fremantle player who has moved to a stopping role rather than creating from half back.

Thoughts?
 

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Mudeo

Club Legend
Apr 30, 2009
1,537
880
AFL Club
Collingwood
Might take Pav most goals for the round @ $34 or Jpod @ $26

Pav 5 last time out against from the midfield? iirc. So hopefully plays deep forward with Mundy back in the team. (named at CHF).

Jpod hasnt missed a shot this season 100% kicking for goal so far. Has kicked 8 goals in his only 2 encounters vs the Kangas albiet those being at SS, should be to good for the Kangas defence.

A bit disapointed they didnt have a Josh Hill type in the group would have been all over that.
 
Mar 27, 2011
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Melboooooooon
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West Coast
Can't really see a lot to bet on this week, not at all confident about the GWS bets, but I threw them on before the teams were announced in the hope it would be treated as a bye from the eagles. A few players out and hopefully the ground stops them running away too much, but realistically, I'm expecting a massacre.

GWS +99.5 @ 2.00 - .5U
GWS +70.5 @ 5.05 - .5U

And a (hopefully) safe multi

Carlton +31.5
Richmond -10.5
Fremantle -16.5
Essendon -16.5
Geelong -12.5

1U @ 3.11
 

lamaros

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 15, 2007
7,247
3,064
Sydney
AFL Club
Essendon
This is what I'm looking at:

Code:
Odds	Units	Bet
2.7	2	Collingwood by 1-39 against Carlton*
1.92	1	Essendon at +56.5 against GC
2.1	1	Brisbane at +40.5 against Fremantle
1.92	1	GWS at +99.5 against West Coast
1.38	20	Essendon by 39.5+ against GC**
2.1	1	Hawthorn at -33.5 against Adelaide
2.3	1	Geelong by 1-39 against North Melbourne
3.6	1	Port at -9.5 against Sydney

* If won matched with a free margin bet for Dogs/Saints
** Freebet

I think Geelong under 40 is decent value. North only lost by 30+ four times last year (twice to the Pies), and is playing this one at Eithad, where they go better and Geelong do a bit worse (played there three times in 2011, for one loss, one close win - 2 points - and a spanking of Richmond).
 
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