Who Misses Out on the 8?

[TheKanga]

My revised top 8 (top 4 in no particular order)

• Carlton
• West Coast
• Sydney
• Collingwood

5. Hawthorn
6. Essendon
7. North
8. Geelong


Richmond, Adelaide and Fremantle will miss.
Adelaide haven't proven themselves. Richmond needed to win against Geelong and West Coast they can't finish off games yet.
Freo are a good side but will be unlucky and finish 9th with a low %.

 

[Joker91]

People who think Collingwood will finish as low as 8th are kidding themselves.

 

[yoshi2284]

when swans and wce will lose this weekend, then they wont be certainties...

 

[Joker91]

when swans and wce will lose this weekend, then they wont be certainties...

Both teams will win by over 5 goals.

 

[bradrowe#32]

People are having a laugh thinking we'll miss.

 

[maelcoluim]

^^ Doubt the Pies will miss the finals but from the evidence of the season so far they look like a bottom-half of the 8 team...not out of question that they could drop out of the 8.

 

[SwanBet]

1. West Coast
2. Carlton
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. Geelong
6. Hawthorn
7. Fremantle
8. Essendon
--
9. Adelaide
10. North
11. Richmond

 

[Sydney Bloods]

Essendon at 4-1 have in the next 9 weeks -

R6 - Brisbane @ Etihad (H)
R7 - West Coast @ Etihad (H)
R8 - Richmond @ MCG (H)
R9 - GWS @ Skoda (A)
R10 - Melbourne @ MCG (H)
R11 - Sydney @ Etihad (H)

R12 - BYE

R13 - Fremantle @ Subiaco (A)
R14 - Western Bulldogs @ Etihad (H)
R15 - St Kilda @ Etihad (A)

Holy hell that's an easy draw, only west coast , Freo and the mighty bloods should trouble you lot*

*obviously injuries will change this.

 

[NUFC Tiger]

My revised top 8 (top 4 in no particular order)

• Carlton
• West Coast
• Sydney
• Collingwood

5. Hawthorn
6. Essendon
7. North
8. Geelong


Richmond, Adelaide and Fremantle will miss.
Adelaide haven't proven themselves. Richmond needed to win against Geelong and West Coast they can't finish off games yet.
Freo are a good side but will be unlucky and finish 9th with a low %.

Not having a go at North but you got over the line against an under par Geelong, had the chance to beat the bombers (and fell short), got smashed by Sydney, smashed GWS and had an expected win against GC (probably could and should have won by more).

While you have an easy draw and should make finals, I think it's a bit premature to say North can match it with the best and finish off games against top sides given you've only had 1 win against a probable top 4-6 team so far.

North will need to back it up and beat a few other top 4-6 teams to prove they can genuinely match the best teams going around. Saying North will make it when you've only beaten 1 top side while Richmond won't make it despite having a few close losses against such sides is a pretty simplistic view (though I agree, we lacked the poise and maturity to finish off those games)

 

[The Chiefton]

Not having a go at North but you got over the line against an under par Geelong, had the chance to beat the bombers (and fell short), got smashed by Sydney, smashed GWS and had an expected win against GC (probably could and should have won by more).

While you have an easy draw and should make finals, I think it's a bit premature to say North can match it with the best and finish off games against top sides given you've only had 1 win against a probable top 4-6 team so far.

North will need to back it up and beat a few other top 4-6 teams to prove they can genuinely match the best teams going around. Saying North will make it when you've only beaten 1 top side while Richmond won't make it despite having a few close losses against such sides is a pretty simplistic view (though I agree, we lacked the poise and maturity to finish off those games)

Yeah we played them when they had 16 P/ship players in, while Richmond played them with 15 in and no Kelly, give us a spell. None of this 6 day bullshit, look at what Essendon and Collingwood dished up on Anzac day.

Also, North didn't get smashed by Sydney. Yes, the swans were in control for the majority of the game, but a 6 goal loss at the SCG against a bloody good side is not a thrashing. Not many sides will beat them there. One less scoring shot, even in a lot of the stats, just beaten by a better side. Although I suspect it may be a bit closer next time we play them in Melbourne.

 

[bulletproof]

On current form it will be Geelong, though Hawthorn may well fall out and one of Essendon and North could tail off dramatically.

Collingwood will finish hard I think.

 

[SydneyGoose]

Yet quite a few North supporters in this thread and in other threads keep saying that St Kilda's window is closed, we are too old and going backwards and are no chance of playing finals this year. They also claim that North are a better team than St Kilda despite not beating us in about 3 years and getting flogged by 10 goals last time around.

Yet as soon as I offer my honest opinion about North I get howled down as a fool and a charlatan. Pot kettle black anyone?

I've been able to tolerate your irrational knee jerk reactions until this point. Swans haven't beaten the 'Pies in their last 10 attempts and if I recall correctly we couldn't beat them in our premiership year. Did that mean pie's were the better team in '05? No, just that they were and are good at beating the swans.

give up before you make yourself a complete mockery!

 

[tonkapies]

Come round 17 / 18 the scribes will be saying pies and cats flag to lose Both clubs building their season very nicely. Eagles Swans Blues and the Hawks can please themselves. regards the OP Crows or Essendon will probally miss, but wouldnt be surprised Hawthorn missing They seem to be a Franklin injury away from season going balls up.

 

[Blue and Silver]

It's something quite odd that people keep predicting last years ladder with slight alterations, 1-2 changes max.

Everyone here is essentially predicting teams to play like they have in recent memory, predicting teams to win based on last year's ladder position more than this year's form. Whose to say Adelaide aren't the real deal and top 4 material? They've lost to Hawthorn, but that doesn't mean they aren't good.

The bottom 5 is relatively easy to predict, GWS, GC, Melb, Port and Dogs. None have looked up to scratch this year. Of the other teams St Kilda and Brisbane haven't been much chop, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn have all been underwhelming, belying last years high finishes. Freo looked shaky last week, particularly in terms of disposal. They were certainly in the game, but scoring from turnovers happened WAY too often. Then there is North and Adelaide sides from the bottom end last year making a good show at this years top end. I reckon both are pretty good chances of making it.

Just my thoughts

 

[SydneyGoose]

Having contemplated the draw further I think there will be 11 big games this year that will decide the ladder.
1. The Derbies will be crucial, if WC win both of those they will be Almost unbeatable to top spot.
2. North Vs. Collingwood and Essendon Vs. Carlton in Round 21. If Essendon win here they can avoid a trip to perth in the finals.
3. WC Vs. Sydney in Round 16.
4. WC Vs. Carlton in Round 12. Carlton have shown they can win in Perth, also showing up Freo for 5-8 team in the process. If Carlton win this one they can almost take the minor premiership there and then (I know the season will only be half over, but IF Carlton are the kinda team that can beat WC in Perth they are the kinda team that will run out of the season in first).
5. Essendon Vs. Sydney in Round 11. Last year it came down to a kick after the siren that missed and both these teams will be hungry for the double chance which will be on the cards by this point for both these teams.
6. Hawthorns Aurora Games (Vs. Fremantle in Round 8 and Vs. North Melbourne in Round 10). These two will be the games that determines if Hawthorn are a finals bound team. I know most of you think that september is a long way away but if Hawthorn lose these games they can almost say goodbye to September.
7. Collingwood Vs. Geelong in Rounds 8 & 16. These two games could determine who has to travel to Perth during first week of finals.

Personally I think Hawks will miss the 8.

 

[db swannie]

At this stage I can't see St Kilda making it. Too early to tell for the rest.

 

[Black Flag]

st kilda is the only team from the op's list that has no chance.

 

[tonkapies]

Having contemplated the draw further I think there will be 11 big games this year that will decide the ladder.
1. The Derbies will be crucial, if WC win both of those they will be Almost unbeatable to top spot.
2. North Vs. Collingwood and Essendon Vs. Carlton in Round 21. If Essendon win here they can avoid a trip to perth in the finals.
3. WC Vs. Sydney in Round 16.
4. WC Vs. Carlton in Round 12. Carlton have shown they can win in Perth, also showing up Freo for 5-8 team in the process. If Carlton win this one they can almost take the minor premiership there and then (I know the season will only be half over, but IF Carlton are the kinda team that can beat WC in Perth they are the kinda team that will run out of the season in first).
5. Essendon Vs. Sydney in Round 11. Last year it came down to a kick after the siren that missed and both these teams will be hungry for the double chance which will be on the cards by this point for both these teams.
6. Hawthorns Aurora Games (Vs. Fremantle in Round 8 and Vs. North Melbourne in Round 10). These two will be the games that determines if Hawthorn are a finals bound team. I know most of you think that september is a long way away but if Hawthorn lose these games they can almost say goodbye to September.
7. Collingwood Vs. Geelong in Rounds 8 & 16. These two games could determine who has to travel to Perth during first week of finals.

Personally I think Hawks will miss the 8.

I think you left out a little game late in the year pies v swans.
Head in the sand situation.. This game i think will ultimately shape the top 4 concerning both clubs. Pies 10 from last 10. If the pies win this game, the swans will probally travel in finals, Pies in sydney 95 % confident, pies v swans in a final at G, this is a gift.

 

[Macca18]

Collingwood give the Swans nightmares.

You'd back them to beat Sydney - any ground, any time.

This will be the Swans most complete test in terms of their improvement this year.

 

[Tassieboy]

Bombers are very well positioned at this point in time, the only real concern would be dropping one or two you probably wouldn't have lost if not for a bad run with injuries.

Bombers were 5 wins and a draw by round 8 last year then lost to Richmond and Melbourne unexpectedly and that cascaded to losses against Freo, North and Hawks during the middle part of the season and you went from finals certainty in round 8 to 5 and a half wins at the end of round 14 and looking very wobbly.

I do think the Bombers are much improved so don't expect that to happen, just people need to be careful about early form, it can be fickle and injuries can trigger a form slump. In saying that, I still expect the bombers to make it easily if they can sustain their form.

Very true re us dropping 'easy' games. A massive issue, every supporter is wary of.

 

[simba_]

it's may

 

[NUFC Tiger]

Yeah we played them when they had 16 P/ship players in, while Richmond played them with 15 in and no Kelly, give us a spell. None of this 6 day bullshit, look at what Essendon and Collingwood dished up on Anzac day.

Also, North didn't get smashed by Sydney. Yes, the swans were in control for the majority of the game, but a 6 goal loss at the SCG against a bloody good side is not a thrashing. Not many sides will beat them there. One less scoring shot, even in a lot of the stats, just beaten by a better side. Although I suspect it may be a bit closer next time we play them in Melbourne.

Certainly not trying ti diminish the win over them Chiefton but I think most people would say if Geelong were switched on and played to their best, they probably should have won the game. At the end of the day, it was a North win and will show as such.

Agreed Sydney are a quality side and will be hard to beat up there. Maybe we differ on our opinions but I would consider a 36 odd point loss to a fellow top 8 side (I expect North to be 7-8th this year) to be a fairly heavy one. Maybe a bit harsh but that is my take.

 

[finders]

WCE
Sydney
Collingwood
Carlton
Geelong
Essendon
Fremantle
Hawthorn

8th place runners

Adelaide
North
Richmond

Bottom dwellers

Port
Saints
Dogs
Brisbane
Melbourne
GC
GWS

 

[Plugger35]

I've been able to tolerate your irrational knee jerk reactions until this point. Swans haven't beaten the 'Pies in their last 10 attempts and if I recall correctly we couldn't beat them in our premiership year. Did that mean pie's were the better team in '05? No, just that they were and are good at beating the swans.

give up before you make yourself a complete mockery!

You've got an appropriate username.

We didn't just beat North twice last year we also finished ahead of them on the ladder and played finals while they didn't, the year before that we came within a bounce of a premiership while they missed the finals again.

Yet I'm the one being irrational for suggesting we're still a better team than North.

 

[fairdinkum]

WCE
Sydney
Collingwood
Carlton
Geelong
Essendon
Fremantle
Hawthorn

8th place runners

Adelaide
North
Richmond

It would seem you have Adel, North and Rich competing for ninth place, not eighth. God I hope we don't finish ninth again.