Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Bazz_38]

I can't see him lasting that long.

O'Rourke is one of the few with the combination of an inside and outside game as well pace and a excellent footskills. I'd be surprised to see him last past pick 6 overall on draft day and should land somewhere in the 2-6 range.

how would you rate him compared to toumpas? i dont know if its just me but i feel that toumpas is quite an outside player and might have trouble relating his game to afl standard straight away

 

[Ruse]

Hi knightmare, how much more upside does the young kpf in this draft like Hogan, Jaksch and Shaw have compared to the mature age kpf like Coleman, haretuku and tom lee?

Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

how would you rate him compared to toumpas? i dont know if its just me but i feel that toumpas is quite an outside player and might have trouble relating his game to afl standard straight away

He is still probably more outside at this stage but he can very capably win his own ball already so I'm not too concerned and I expect his inside game to grow.

For much of the u18 champs with injury was playing mostly off a back flank but play him anywhere and he will find a way to influence the contest and he has more than shown even while injured that for bursts that he is very capable on the ball.

 

[Bazz_38]

He is still probably more outside at this stage but he can very capably win his own ball already so I'm not too concerned and I expect his inside game to grow.

For much of the u18 champs with injury was playing mostly off a back flank but play him anywhere and he will find a way to influence the contest and he has more than shown even while injured that for bursts that he is very capable on the ball.

Ok thank you. last question. Do you believe Melbourne will have to use pick 3 on Viney? and if not, do you see us drafting both Toumpas and o'rourke? or toumpas and grundy? i just feel like o'rourke will offer us more with his ability to win contested ball and also do wonders on the outside. Toumpas is a very good player and i wouldnt be sad one bit if we picked him up.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi knightmare, how much more upside does the young kpf in this draft like Hogan, Jaksch and Shaw have compared to the mature age kpf like Coleman, haretuku and tom lee?

Cheers.

Hogan/Jaksch/Shaw all have better long term best 22 potential being the young players and probably better talents.

The thing with the mature agers is that you mostly just take them on who they are today. Coleman being a late starter can still improve further and Lee being a late bloomer can probably still improve further also but the primary advantage with these types is more that they can offer something from next season even if it is as only depth while the younger types tend to break out some time around season 4 because when drafted they are still growing physically with their development mostly just beginning so they are mostly a long way off what they will become whereas the mature agers are mostly going to remain much the same players and make a few minor tweaks to improve their games here and there.

 

[Knightmare]

Ok thank you. last question. Do you believe Melbourne will have to use pick 3 on Viney? and if not, do you see us drafting both Toumpas and o'rourke? or toumpas and grundy? i just feel like o'rourke will offer us more with his ability to win contested ball and also do wonders on the outside. Toumpas is a very good player and i wouldnt be sad one bit if we picked him up.

If GWS or Gold Coast bid on Viney I expect Melbourne to take him at pick 3, but there is the chance that he does slip through to that 2nd round selection if GWS or Gold Coast don't bid on him allowing Melbourne to draft O'Rourke and whoever else is available. Toumpas likely will go pick 2 to Gold Coast assuming they retain that selection, if it is traded to GWS for a minidraft selection then perhaps they take Grundy instead allowing Toumpas to drop.

With the F/S bidding and trade week (including minidraft bidding) happening before the draft these questions should be cleared up soon enough.

O'Rourke ideally isn't the primary contested ball winner and plays his best footy more as an inside receiver who can burst away with his pace and set up players up the field with his footskills - so he would really benefit from a Viney doing all the hard inside work to make him play his more preferred midfield role. But any combination of these player would be a good outcome for Melbourne.

 

[MR]

Knightmare, I can't really see WBD picking up Wines. They have a plethora of excellent inside midfielders, surely they'll go for outside class. Grundy + Mayes, Grundy + Garlett, or Mayes + Garlett possibly is how I see them drafting.

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

Knighter.
if you had to pick a couple of late round bolters (thinking a swan, swallow etc.) that could surprise who would you say?

Also would recruiters be put off by Hrovat's height? (or lack thereof) there are blokes that are just too small but he seems to punch above his weight. really like the look of him personally

 

[philthy05]

the way knights describes orourke he sounds like exactly what the dogs would go for. a different type of inside. at a guess i think they would be looking at some combination of orourke, plowman, mayes. 2 of those 3 would fit them to a tee.

im also firming as orourke as a favourite at our pick if he makes it. we need help in the midfield, particularly pace and footskills, if orourke brings that with his inside ability he sounds perfect. also has the pre-requisite pre-draft injury. again at a guess ild think orourke and mayes would be hot options at ports pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, I can't really see WBD picking up Wines. They have a plethora of excellent inside midfielders, surely they'll go for outside class. Grundy + Mayes, Grundy + Garlett, or Mayes + Garlett possibly is how I see them drafting.

The WBD have some really nice inside midfield depth coming through but Boyd and Cross won't be around to carry that midfield forever. Coach McCarthy seems very keen to add more quality inside midfielders and there are few better hard inside players than Wines so I'm not so sure it's a problem going this way.

Garlett has been noted for some attitude problems, I'm really interested to hear how he goes with that because on just talent he would otherwise be a top 5 talent or close but I have my doubts he goes this high with Toumpas/O'Rourke/Wines/Mayes those preferred mids. Mayes and O'Rourke are both very quick so getting one or the other would be a good result and probably what the Western Bull Dogs will be after with one of those early selections.

Knighter.
if you had to pick a couple of late round bolters (thinking a swan, swallow etc.) that could surprise who would you say?

Also would recruiters be put off by Hrovat's height? (or lack thereof) there are blokes that are just too small but he seems to punch above his weight. really like the look of him personally

I've mostly accounted for the late bolders in my more recent updates but I expect Nicholas Graham, Dean Towers, Paul Marschal, Ben Kearns and Jacob Ballard to be spoken about more - I'm sure there are plenty I've missed who hopefully Snoop Dog or Quigley will include in their drafts if/when they get around to posting them.

Also don't be surprised to see some articles on afl.com and other sites on Emmanuel Irra who will probably also spark some interest.

I don't see Hrovat's height as a limitation. As a small while not slow he isn't super quick as a Ben Kennedy is so maybe because of that with his height might drop down some draft boards into more of a mid draft - later selection but I really like his game and I see him representing some value because he just doesn't play a bad game and will get in the bests every week consistently outplaying higher profile players. So much substance to his game and there is very little if anything missing.

 

[Demons2012]

Hi Knightmare

Really enjoy your input and obvious knowledge on this thread. I think Viney will be picked up in rou d 2 and we will pick Grundy at 4. I have a quick question on Grundy, while many believe a ruckman is a risky choice can you explain why you think he is such a certainty to go fairly high in this draft? He's obviously reasonably built for an 18 year old, would he come in and play number 1 next year or still through the forward line/bench and remain behind Jamar in the pecking order. You've compared him to Nic Nat in your decription without the freakish athletic ability, so he's presumably an athletic ruckman
rather than dinosaur, can you expand or procvide another comparison as i can't really imagine a not as athletic NN being as good a player, I mean that's what's so good about him. Thanks

 

[Aliago]

Knightmare, simple question - Who is the best kick in the state leagues?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare

Really enjoy your input and obvious knowledge on this thread. I think Viney will be picked up in rou d 2 and we will pick Grundy at 4. I have a quick question on Grundy, while many believe a ruckman is a risky choice can you explain why you think he is such a certainty to go fairly high in this draft? He's obviously reasonably built for an 18 year old, would he come in and play number 1 next year or still through the forward line/bench and remain behind Jamar in the pecking order. You've compared him to Nic Nat in your decription without the freakish athletic ability, so he's presumably an athletic ruckman
rather than dinosaur, can you expand or procvide another comparison as i can't really imagine a not as athletic NN being as good a player, I mean that's what's so good about him. Thanks

The appeal with Grundy is that he is not only a very high level athlete but he has been a consistent improver, tap work is as good as any ruckman taken in recent seasons and he is already a ready to play ruckman physically who has since last year really dominated u18s. He is very much a top 3-5 quality selection, it's just with some of those clubs with early selections needing other things he could be available a little later than he otherwise probably should be.

I typically don't like selecting ruckmen early draft but Grundy is well worth it and better than the recent McEvoy/Vickery type ruckmen coming through. Grundy projects as a very high level, possible top 5 league ruckman so he is well worth the early draft investment.

There are few appropriate AFL comparisons for Grundy. But think of Grundy as a more athletic Todd Goldstein with more ability forward of centre. I see him following a reasonably similar path with his development but he is well ahead of where Goldstein was at this same stage and hopefully will develop into a similar player but with more ability to go forward.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, simple question - Who is the best kick in the state leagues?

Possibly Paul Marschall (defender) with Ben Duscher (mid) not far behind.

 

[Aliago]

Ok, so I know a little about Duscher because I follow the VFL, but I doubt he would be the best choice to play off a HBF. The Pies obviously need an elite kick from the back line; would Marshall be able to fill that 2011 Leon role? We have really lacked that this year. You don't have him in your phantom so far, so I would assume we could get him late?

 

[Nemisis]

Ok, so I know a little about Duscher because I follow the VFL, but I doubt he would be the best choice to play off a HBF. The Pies obviously need an elite kick from the back line; would Marshall be able to fill that 2011 Leon role? We have really lacked that this year. You don't have him in your phantom so far, so I would assume we could get him late?

Hi Aliago, I have watched Marshall all year for centrals - he is tallish defender. Only 189 but players taller - nothing like Leon Davis - he is even a touch on the slow side, but he is a great young footballer.

 

[Patron]

Ok, so I know a little about Duscher because I follow the VFL, but I doubt he would be the best choice to play off a HBF. The Pies obviously need an elite kick from the back line; would Marshall be able to fill that 2011 Leon role? We have really lacked that this year. You don't have him in your phantom so far, so I would assume we could get him late?

Take stevenson off west coast, we refuse to play him for some reason. Probably the second best kick in our squad after hurn.

 

[Aliago]

Hi Aliago, I have watched Marshall all year for centrals - he is tallish defender. Only 189 but players taller - nothing like Leon Davis - he is even a touch on the slow side, but he is a great young footballer.

Thanks for that mate. If he is been a part of Centrals well I can not help but be a little intrigued with the success they have had. I'll have to do a little research then.

Take stevenson off west coast, we refuse to play him for some reason. Probably the second best kick in our squad after hurn.

Interesting. Haven't minded him when I have seen him.

 

[nick1408]

Hi Knightmare

Really enjoy your input and obvious knowledge on this thread. I think Viney will be picked up in rou d 2 and we will pick Grundy at 4. I have a quick question on Grundy, while many believe a ruckman is a risky choice can you explain why you think he is such a certainty to go fairly high in this draft? He's obviously reasonably built for an 18 year old, would he come in and play number 1 next year or still through the forward line/bench and remain behind Jamar in the pecking order. You've compared him to Nic Nat in your decription without the freakish athletic ability, so he's presumably an athletic ruckman
rather than dinosaur, can you expand or procvide another comparison as i can't really imagine a not as athletic NN being as good a player, I mean that's what's so good about him. Thanks

The appeal with Grundy is that he is not only a very high level athlete but he has been a consistent improver, tap work is as good as any ruckman taken in recent seasons and he is already a ready to play ruckman physically who has since last year really dominated u18s. He is very much a top 3-5 quality selection, it's just with some of those clubs with early selections needing other things he could be available a little later than he otherwise probably should be.

I typically don't like selecting ruckmen early draft but Grundy is well worth it and better than the recent McEvoy/Vickery type ruckmen coming through. Grundy projects as a very high level, possible top 5 league ruckman so he is well worth the early draft investment.

There are few appropriate AFL comparisons for Grundy. But think of Grundy as a more athletic Todd Goldstein with more ability forward of centre. I see him following a reasonably similar path with his development but he is well ahead of where Goldstein was at this same stage and hopefully will develop into a similar player but with more ability to go forward.

G'day Knightmare. Have been watching your posts for a while. I wouldn't mind getting in on the Grundy conversation. I posted the below in one of the Richmond threads. Do you think there is a chance Grundy could slip like Billy Longer did? I do feel Melbourne are the biggest chance to take Grundy followed by Port.

Your thoughts?

I feel there is a real chance Grundy may make it to us. Looking at the sides between us and Grundy there is:

GWS - Won't blink in taking Whitfield
GCS - Have Day, Nicholls, Gorringe, Smith. Not an area they need to strengthen
Dees - Jamar is 29 so they may think along the same lines as me but with Fitzpatrick and Spencer probably don't need to for a couple of years yet but do have two picks. One is taken with Viney but still don't think they will take a ruck
Dogs - Again, two picks but with Cordy and Roughead don't really need a developing ruck
Port - Renouf, Redden and Lobbe. Not an area they need to strengthen with a first round ruck but may have a look
Brisbane - Strengthened with a first round ruck last year. Have Leuenberger as well. Don't need a ruck

Really, I think unless there is a trade for a low pick the current clubs below us don't need a developing ruck too much. Dees are probably the danger as Fitzpatrick hasn't been sighted much. Spencer and he have only had 10 games between them since 2009/2010

 

[MR]

G'day Knightmare. Have been watching your posts for a while. I wouldn't mind getting in on the Grundy conversation. I posted the below in one of the Richmond threads. Do you think there is a chance Grundy could slip like Billy Longer did? I do feel Melbourne are the biggest chance to take Grundy followed by Port.

Your thoughts?

Spencer and Fitzpatrick are nothing to write home about. It's like saying last year, we have Andy Browne and Gus, we don't need Ivan. This is the same story with the Dogs and Port as Grundy is just that class above the rest.

 

[Knightmare]

Ok, so I know a little about Duscher because I follow the VFL, but I doubt he would be the best choice to play off a HBF. The Pies obviously need an elite kick from the back line; would Marshall be able to fill that 2011 Leon role? We have really lacked that this year. You don't have him in your phantom so far, so I would assume we could get him late?

I agree that we need one more player in that back half to add something. As an attacking back flanker though my preference is Leigh Osborne. Not as good as Leon Davis defensively but he can generate some drive with his pace and footskills.

Paul Marschal while a very good kick so he could be a fit but as Nemisis mentions is probably on the slow side and in that back half we would be better suited to adding a player with that speed + kicking ability combo an Osborne can provide.

Osborne might be a 2nd round option and could be available in the 3rd round. Marschal is more a 3rd round onwards.

 

[Knightmare]

G'day Knightmare. Have been watching your posts for a while. I wouldn't mind getting in on the Grundy conversation. I posted the below in one of the Richmond threads. Do you think there is a chance Grundy could slip like Billy Longer did? I do feel Melbourne are the biggest chance to take Grundy followed by Port.

Your thoughts?

It is entirely possible Grundy slides into that 5-10 range as Longer did - and if he does a Port Adelaide could end up big draft day winners as a result because he is a top 5 quality draft talent.

Really any of Melbourne/Western Bull Dogs or Port Adelaide could be eventual destinations for Grundy. It just depends how these clubs value his talents relative to some of the midfielders likely to be taken in that similar range and whether any of these clubs are willing to invest in another young ruckman.

 

[Aliago]

I know about Osbourne. Thanks Knighta.

 

[nick1408]

G'day Knightmare. Have been watching your posts for a while. I wouldn't mind getting in on the Grundy conversation. I posted the below in one of the Richmond threads. Do you think there is a chance Grundy could slip like Billy Longer did? I do feel Melbourne are the biggest chance to take Grundy followed by Port.

Your thoughts?

Spencer and Fitzpatrick are nothing to write home about. It's like saying last year, we have Andy Browne and Gus, we don't need Ivan. This is the same story with the Dogs and Port as Grundy is just that class above the rest.

Agree with the Melbourne pair but I think the dogs are well covered with Roughead and Cordy while I think Port will persivere with their trio.

 

[THE_GUN]

Even though we really want High quality mids this year , grundy would be a godsend to Richmond !
We have Vickery who is actually a foward thats 200cm tall but is also a good ruck but not a ruckman (if you get what i mean)

Maric will be around for another 4-5 years but is extremely handy down back playing on the tall resting rucks or filling holes
I could easily see all 3 playing in the 1 team mainly because of both Grundy & vickery's Versatility

No chance he will get to #9 but would be great